Illinois (7-3) jumped out to a 4-0 start with quality wins over Kansas and Nebraska before running into a stout Penn State defense that held the Illini to 34 rushing yards and 219 total yards in the contest. They barely escaped with a 50-49 win over 1-9 Purdue (25%-win expectancy) and beat an offense-averse Michigan team, before getting destroyed by Oregon 38-9 and losing a coin-flip one score game to Minnesota. The Illini have been fairly projectable thus far, losing to every team they faced with a winning record and beating every program who is currently .500 or worse. Their offense is built around a conservative passing attack that sacrifices chunk plays (107th in pass explosiveness) in favor of consistency (34th in pass success rate) and security, with Illinois ranking 2nd in FBS with a 1.0% interception rate. The biggest issue on D is a morose run defense that ranks 130th in rushing success rate and 134th in stuff rate. Fortunately, their secondary has held up well, ranking 27th in yards per successful pass play allowed while restricting opponents to just 5.4 yards per completion (102nd).

The Scarlet Knights (6-4) barnstormed through their early season schedule with notable victories over @Virginia Tech and Washington, opening with a 4-0 record. However, since then Rutgers dropped one-score decisions against @Nebraska and UCLA in addition to getting crushed by USC and Wisconsin to even their record at 4-4. A much-needed Week 10 Bye helped RU recalibrate, as they proceeded to beat Minnesota and @Maryland the last two weeks to achieve bowl eligibility. Offensively RB Kyle Monangai heads up a decent run game that ranks 16th in YAC and 54th in EPA/rush but struggles to hit big plays ranking 103rd in yards per successful rush. Conversely, the Scarlet Knights are allowing a brutal 50.6% rushing success rate (126th in FBS) while ranking 125th in EPA/rush allowed. Despite a porous front line, Rutgers is still fielding the 32nd defense in FBS according to SP+.

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Game details and how to watch Illinois at Rutgers

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· Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024
· Time: 12:00 AM EST
· Site: SHI Stadium
· City: Piscataway, NJ
· TV/Streaming: Peacock

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Game odds for Illinois at Rutgers

The latest odds as of Friday morning:

• Moneyline: Illinois (-115), Rutgers (-105)
• Spread: Fighting Illini -1
• Over/Under: 47.5 points

This game opened with Rutgers slightly favored at -1 but has since flipped to Illinois -1 with a couple of books taking the leap to -1.5. The moneyline hasn’t moved appreciably from each team’s initial -110 drop, while the 47.5-point game total has ticked up slightly from an open of 47.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:

“I think Illinois is balanced enough on each side of the ball to exploit Rutgers’ defensive weakness. The Illini rarely turn the ball over and do an excellent job of limiting big plays, so I am backing Illinois on the moneyline to beat the Scarlet Knights on the road.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

BetMGM College Football Insights: Odds to make Playoffs

Line movement (Open to Now)

• Indiana +15000 to -500
• Tennessee +180 to -135
• Colorado +2000 to -120

Highest Ticket%

• Tennessee 5.0%
• Iowa 4.8%
• Utah 4.8%

Highest Handle%

• Texas 10.1%
• Indiana 6.4%
• Alabama 5.7%

Biggest Liability

Quarterback matchup for Illinois at Rutgers

• Illinois: QB Luke Altymer spent his first two seasons at Ole Miss until it became clear that Jaxson Dart was HC Lane Kiffin’s preferred choice, transferring to Illinois in 2023 and being named starter for the season opener. Dart has taken a step this year, throwing for 2,132 yards, 7.5 YPA (6.9 last year) and a rock solid 18-to-3 ratio (13-to-10 LY). Altmyer’s 75.1 PFF passing grade ranks 56th out of 92 qualifying signal callers, which is a grade on par with notable P5 QBs like Noah Fifita, Nico Iamaleava and Brendan Sorsby. Illinois’ passing attack ranks 34th in success rate (45.3%) and 28th in yards per completion (6.5) under Altmyer’s guidance, offsetting a lackluster run game that ranks 89th in success rate.

• Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from woeful 2023 starting QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of transferring in former Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The change of scenery did wonders for Kaliakmanis, who has improved his yards per attempt average from 6.2-to-7.0 and lowered his pressure-to-sack rate from 20.5% to 14.2%. To put it in perspective, Kaliakmanis boosted his PFF passing grade from 58.2-to-77.9, which ranks 42nd out of 92 FBS qualifiers. RU can achieve a rare 8-win season if they can knock off @Rutgers and @Northwestern in their final two regular season contests.

Trends & recent stats

• Luke Altmyer (ILL) has thrown for first downs on 44% of his pass attempts on third and 10+ yards to go this season– 3rd-best among FBS Quarterbacks; Miami QB Cam Ward leads the nation with a 47.6% third and 10+ conversion rate.
• Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 37 of 334 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– 11th-worst in FBS; Ole Miss leads the nation with a 26.5% TFL rate.
• RU is tackling opponents for a loss on 13.3% of the rush attempts they’ve faced, 56th out of 67 Power Four teams. They are allowing an average of 7.3 yards and an 85% conversion rate in third-and-short situations.
• Rutgers Skill Players have caught just 168 of 297 passes this season, as their 56.6% catch rate amounting to the third-worst mark among Power Conference Teams. Florida State ranks last with a 51.4% catch rate (148 recs on 288 targets).

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Indiana has performed well above its on-paper talent level all season, winning all of its first 10 games for the first 10-win season in school history. Yes, it’s true that Indiana hasn’t yet beaten a ranked opponent this season, but the Hoosiers have the third-highest average scoring margin in all of college football (25.2 points per game), rank second nationally in points scored per game (43.9) and third nationally in yards allowed per game (255.5).

That means Ohio State must be prepared for one of its biggest tests of the season in all phases of the game as it welcomes the fifth-ranked Hoosiers to Ohio Stadium for its third top-five matchup of the season on Saturday.

In particular, the following five positional matchups bear watching on Saturday. Which team wins the majority of these matchups will go a long way toward determining whether Indiana upsets the second-ranked Buckeyes or Ohio State hands the Hoosiers their first loss.

Ohio State Interior OL vs. Indiana DTs and LBs

Ohio State’s interior offensive line will be the position group under the microscope more than any other when Saturday’s game begins as the Buckeyes play their first game without star center Seth McLaughlin. Carson Hinzman will make his first start of the season at center with Austin Siereveld making his first start since non-conference play as he replaces Hinzman at left guard.

That makes all three positions along Ohio State’s interior offensive line a question mark entering this game as Tegra Tshabola has had plenty of ups and downs in his first season as the Buckeyes’ right guard. All of them have played enough that there’s reason for optimism they won’t be a complete liability, but the lack of the stabilizing veteran presence that McLaughlin provided is a cause for concern.

A bigger test for them specifically might come next week when they faced Michigan’s elite defensive tackle tandem of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, but the Hoosiers’ interior defenders are plenty capable of challenging them, too. Kent State transfer defensive tackle CJ West has been one of the Big Ten’s best interior defensive linemen this season, recording 30 tackles with five tackles for loss and two sacks through 10 games, and he pairs with fellow starter James Carpenter and James Madison transfer Tyrique Tucker to give the Hoosiers a strong defensive tackle trio that’s combined for 61 quarterback pressures this season, per Pro Football Focus.

One of McLaughlin’s greatest strengths was his ability to get to the second level and make key blocks to spring Ohio State’s running backs up the middle, and Indiana has a quality linebacker group that will test the Buckeyes’ new-look middle of the offensive line in that regard, as well. Aiden Fisher is tied for second among all Big Ten defenders with 98 tackles this season while fellow starting linebacker Jailin Walker has also been productive, recording 59 tackles with four tackles for loss and six pass breakups.

RELATED Ohio State Shows Confidence in Carson Hinzman, Austin Siereveld with Quick Move to Name New Starters on Offensive Line

Ohio State OTs vs. Indiana DE Mikail Kamara

Even without McLaughlin’s injury, Ohio State’s offensive line would have been one of the bigger question-mark positions entering this game because of the Hoosiers’ ability to bring pressure up front, especially off the edge.

Indiana leads the Big Ten with 31 sacks this season, and the biggest contributor to that total has been Mikail Kamara, who leads the conference with 9.5 quarterback takedowns. The 6-foot-1, 265-pound James Madison transfer leads the entire FBS with 53 quarterback pressures this season.

Donovan Jackson gave up two sacks to Penn State’s Abdul Carter in his first game at left tackle, and Kamara will be by far the best pass rusher he’s faced since. Right tackle Josh Fryar has been better in pass protection this year than he was last year, but pass blocking is still the weaker part of his game, so the Hoosiers will likely move Kamara around to test both tackles.

“He’s a very talented player,” Jackson said of Kamara. “He knows how to use his abilities well in terms of using hands, being able to turn the corner, which is the reason why his numbers are so good as it is now. So I know that as a unit, we all got our work cut out for us. This is a very talented team, very talented defensive front, and they’re all dialed into what they have to do. They rarely get out of gaps. So we just have to be dialed in on what we have to do to execute the game plan and do what we can to the best of our abilities.”

Ohio State CBs vs. Indiana WRs and Kurtis Rourke

On the other side of the ball, the key to the game for Ohio State could be whether Ohio State’s cornerbacks can keep Indiana’s wide receivers in check. Indiana’s passing offense has been one of the nation’s most effective this season, ranking third in the FBS with 9.9 yards per passing attempt, and the Hoosiers’ wideouts will be the best Ohio State has faced since Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson lit the Buckeyes up in a 341-yard passing day for Oregon.

None of Indiana’s individual receivers are quite as dynamic as Stewart, who had seven catches for 149 yards and a touchdown against Ohio State, but Elijah Sarratt has been one of the Big Ten’s most productive wideouts with 38 catches for 685 yards and six touchdowns. And the Buckeyes can’t key in on just slowing down Sarratt as the Hoosiers have five wide receivers who have all caught at least 24 passes for 289 yards this season.

Denzel Burke has a lot to prove this week after his nightmare of a game in Eugene while Davison Igbinosun has continued to struggle with penalties in his second year with the Buckeyes. They’re both projected to be higher NFL draft picks than any of Indiana’s wide receivers, so they should be capable of winning their matchups along with Jordan Hancock in the slot, but their inconsistency this season makes this matchup one to watch as Kurtis Rourke’s play all season has demonstrated he won’t be afraid to attack any weak spots he can find in the Buckeyes’ defense.

“He’s extremely efficient,” Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles said of Rourke. “Calm in the pocket and very efficient. Makes all the throws, gets rid of the ball quickly. In that type of offense, he’s very smart and figures out where the holes of the defense are and takes advantage.”

RELATED Ohio State Needs Best From Denzel Burke, Davison Igbinosun and Jordan Hancock vs. Indiana

Ohio State WRs vs. Indiana DBs

While Ohio State’s cornerbacks will be put to the test by Indiana’s receivers, the Buckeyes’ biggest advantage over the Hoosiers may be the matchup between their wideouts and Indiana’s secondary.

Indiana’s passing defense has been good this season, ranking 21st in the FBS with only 183.3 passing yards allowed per game, but the Hoosiers haven’t faced any group of weapons like Ohio State’s trio of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. Maryland, the best passing offense Indiana has faced so far this season, threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-28 loss to the Hoosiers.

James Madison transfer D’Angelo Ponds has been excellent as Indiana’s top cornerback this season, holding opponents to only 25 catches for 196 yards and one touchdown on 45 targets (per PFF) with two interceptions and six pass breakups, but he’ll give up significant size to OSU’s receivers at only 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds. That said, he does have the advantage of familiarity with Smith as he was Smith’s high school teammate at Chaminade-Madonna.

Indiana’s run defense has been dominant this season, holding opponents to only 72.2 rushing yards per game, so Ohio State is going to need to be able to make plays in the downfield passing game to open up running lanes. There’s reason to believe the Buckeyes should be well-equipped to do so with their receiving talent, though the ability of Ohio State’s aforementioned offensive line to hold up in pass protection as well as Will Howard’s consistency throwing deep will be factors in whether the Buckeyes can exploit their talent advantage on the perimeter.

Indiana OTs vs. Ohio State DEs

If Ohio State could pick one player from Indiana’s roster to add to its roster right now, it would probably pick Indiana left tackle Carter Smith – who the Buckeyes very likely could have gotten as a recruit if they had offered him out of nearby Olentangy Liberty High School. Instead, the three-star prospect has developed into one of the Big Ten’s best offensive tackles in Bloomington, teaming with Wisconsin transfer right tackle Trey Wedig to give the Hoosiers an excellent tandem on the edge.

For Ohio State to slow down Indiana’s passing attack, it won’t just be about the aforementioned cornerback winning their one-on-one matchups; the Buckeyes also need their pass rush to be much better than it was against Oregon, where Ohio State recorded zero sacks. Ohio State’s pass rush has been better since then, but it’s typically been big games where the Buckeyes have struggled to generate pressure in recent years, and Smith and Wedig will be the best offensive tackle tandem they’ve faced since the trip to Eugene.

Jack Sawyer enters this game on a wave of momentum, having recorded 12 tackles with nine quarterback pressures, a forced fumble and a fumble return for a touchdown in Ohio State’s last two games, while JT Tuimoloau has six tackles for loss in the Buckeyes’ last five games. It would go a long way for Ohio State’s efforts to slow down the Hoosiers’ offense if they can continue to wreak havoc off the edge; if they have a quiet game like they did against the Ducks, Ohio State will be at risk of suffering another loss.

There is a 4-way tie atop our season standings between John Steppe, Jeff Johnson, Rob Gray and Beth Malicki

The Gazette’s Pick ‘Ems for Week 13 of the college football season including long road trips for Iowa and Iowa State and the top-five showdown between Indiana and Ohio State.

Iowa (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) at Maryland (4-6, 1-6)

11 a.m. Saturday (BTN)

Line: Iowa -6.5

Mike Hlas (2-1, 24-12) — Iowa’s No. 3 quarterback for this game is a Maryland blue crab. Iowa 24, Maryland 14

John Steppe (2-1, 26-10) — My editors are excited for a deadline-friendly 11 a.m. start. I’m just excited to use Washington’s outstanding Metro system. Iowa 20, Maryland 13

Jeff Johnson (3-0, 26-10) — Hey, Coach Ferentz. I’ve got some eligibility remaining if you need a quarterback. I specialize in the Tush Push. Maryland 21, Iowa 17

Rob Gray (3-0, 26-10) — Can the return of Cade McNamara save the Hawkeyes’ season? Maybe. But can the “clouds” settle and put Jackson Stratton into the starting spot? It appears possible. Iowa 14, Maryland 10

Beth Malicki (3-0, 26-10) — I’m hosting Thanksgiving and don’t want anyone to bring their own darn food. This isn’t a potluck. This is my chance to show off and stress out. Iowa 20, Maryland 17

Todd Brommelkamp (3-0, 25-11) — Maryland has a single B1G win (by just one point) and gives up almost 30 points a game yet somehow Iowa’s final road trip of the year has become very unnerving. Iowa 28, Maryland 19

No. 22 Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) at Utah (4-6, 1-6)

6:30 p.m. Saturday (Fox)

Line: Iowa State -7.5

Hlas — Once I was in a bar in the old Denver airport waiting to catch a flight to Salt Lake City. Someone dropped a quarter in a jukebox and played a Hall and Oates record. At that moment, the most amazing thing happened to all of us there. (Continued on Page 13C). Utah 21, Iowa State 20

Steppe — Utah has more national parks than college football wins this year. Iowa State 23, Utah 20

Johnson — “Is it possible the two Utes …” “The two what?” “What?” “Did you say two Utes?” “Yeah, two Utes.” “What is a Ute?” “Oh, excuse me, your honor. Two youths.” Iowa State 28, Utah 10

Gray — If the Cyclones can stop the run, a path to 9-2 swiftly materializes. If they can’t, this is a four-quarter game. Iowa State 27, Utah 17

Malicki — Why am I wearing a splint on each wrist when I sleep? Self-induced carpal tunnel from robust cleaning. Iowa State 31, Utah 24

Brommelkamp — Utah’s controversial loss in the Holy War two weeks ago was the final straw in a lost season for Kyle Whittingham’s team. Make it seven straight setbacks for the Utes. Iowa State 25, Utah 21

No. 5 Indiana (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)

11 a.m. Saturday (Fox)

Line: Ohio State -12

Hlas — This is the biggest Indiana football game of our lives, then we have turkey dinner five days later. So delay that move to New Zealand for another week. Ohio State 35, Indiana 28

Steppe — My mother is an Indiana grad. I hope she does her Christmas shopping for me before reading this pick. Ohio State 41, Indiana 31

Johnson — Indiana is a great story, but let’s get real. Hoosiers have played exactly ONE team with a winning record, and that’s Washington, which is a mere 6-5. Ohio State 31, Indiana 14

Gray — Heck, let’s blow it all up. Bluebloods be damned. Er, wait. On second thought … Ohio State 27, Indiana 14

Malicki — I cannot wait for all three of my adult kids to come home so I can be so overwhelmed with delight I can’t sleep so in all the pictures I have “crazy eyes.” Ohio State 34, Indiana 23

Brommelkamp — It’s clear ESPN and the CFP aren’t fans of Curt Cignetti’s upstarts. I am. The Hoosiers will (hopefully) make this a game and prove their many doubters wrong. Ohio State 31, Indiana 24