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Ohio State vs. Northwestern football prediction: What the analytics say

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Ohio State vs. Northwestern football prediction: What the analytics say


Big Ten football kicks off on the shores of Lake Michigan this weekend as No. 2 Ohio State hits the road against Northwestern. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State is still behind undefeated Oregon and Indiana in the Big Ten standings and, with the loss to the Ducks, needs to stay winning with the Hoosiers coming up next weekend.

Northwestern moved to 2-4 in Big Ten play after getting past Purdue last time out but sits 120th in passing output and 126th out of 134 FBS teams in scoring production with 18 points per game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Wildcats this weekend.

Ohio State is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 95.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Northwestern as the presumptive winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 19,060 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wildcats edged out OSU in the other 940 predictions.

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How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 26.7 points better than Northwestern on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Wildcats.

That’s because Ohio State is a 28.5 point favorite against Northwestern, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

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The book didn’t list any moneyline odds for the game, given the Buckeyes are such big favorites.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will make things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Northwestern is getting 53 percent of bets to either win outright in the upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 29 points in a loss.

The other 47 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams and third nationally with a 92.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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That model gives the Buckeyes a win total projection of 11 games this season.

Northwestern’s postseason hopes are just about dashed, but not extinguished just yet.

The model projects the Wildcats will win 4.6 games in ‘24.

That translates to a 10.9 percent shot to become bowl eligible this season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

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Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

  1. Oregon
  2. Ohio State
  3. Texas
  4. Penn State
  5. Indiana
  6. BYU
  7. Tennessee
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Miami
  10. Alabama
  11. Ole Miss
  12. Georgia
  13. Boise State
  14. SMU
  15. Texas A&M
  16. Kansas State
  17. Colorado
  18. Washington State
  19. Louisville
  20. Clemson
  21. South Carolina
  22. LSU
  23. Missouri
  24. Army
  25. Tulane

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia Has Four Word Phrase As Ohio State Rallying Cry

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Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia Has Four Word Phrase As Ohio State Rallying Cry


Ohio State Buckeyes defensive coordinator Matt Patricia isn’t returning to Columbus to mess around. He wants to win and wants to do so immediately to erase the bad taste from the Buckeyes’ Cotton Bowl loss to the Miami Hurricanes last month.

To do so, Patricia needed a mindset shift. It’s one made famous by ex-Ohio State legend Woody Hayes, whose words still resonate with Buckeye faithful to this day.

“You Win With People.”

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“When you go into a new building, man, you better leave all that baggage behind,” Patricia said, via The Silver Bulletin.” “You [had] better leave that behind because they don’t deserve it or they’re not there in that same space.”

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Patricia wants his players to remember, whether it’s ex-safety Caleb Downs or a practice squad plsyer thst he wants to remain in their life for as long as he can instead of just being transactional.

“I really have a lot of joy in this and love being around the guys and the relationships,” Patricia said. “I’ve got guys that I coached in the 90s, and I’m still really close with, and guys that don’t call, they just be like, ‘Hey, I need your advice on this,’ or after football, career advice and things like that. So I love being that mentor.”

Patricia does tend to use the growth vs. fixed mindset, channeling the growth mindset as his main source of positive coaching.

“I just try to take it one step at a time,” Patricia said. “I always want to have that growth mindset. I always want to be a curious learner.”

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Matt Patricia Finds Inner-Motivation to Lead Buckeyes

Nonetheless, though, one thing is non-negotiable.

“I’m gonna give you everything I got,” Patricia said. “I’m really gonna sacrifice everything I can to make sure I come through for you.”

Regardless of the outcome, that’s Patricia’s constant message.

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Everything can be reset, which Patricia realized after a failed stint with the Detroit Lions.

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“I wasn’t my best version,” Patricia said. “I think learning that is really important. That’s how you get better as a coach, as a person.”

Now, he says feels much better about himself overall. Especially when it comes to mentoring players where he knows they will be successful with the next level like Downs.

“I think just in general with Caleb [Downs], just the amount of experience he has playing football is probably the most important thing,” Patricia said. “And his professionalism, and how he prepares, is probably the best example that I can point to for all the players.”

With Patricia at peace, the Buckeyes defense can move forward as well.

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It remains to be seen whether everything pays off. Come August, we will find out.



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3 thoughts on Ohio State hiring Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator

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3 thoughts on Ohio State hiring Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator


Ohio State is set to bring in Arthur Smith as its next offensive coordinator, replacing Brian Hartline, who was recently named the head coach at South Florida.

Here are three thoughts on Smith’s imminent hire:   

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day values NFL experience

The hire follows a familiar pattern, as Smith is the latest coordinator to bring an NFL background to Ohio State.   

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Six of the eight offensive and defensive play-callers hired by Day over his tenure have spent previous years in the NFL.

Smith’s career arc most closely mirrors Matt Patricia, the Buckeyes’ current defensive coordinator. Both were rising stars during the 2010s and landed head-coaching jobs at the peak of their ascents before washing out and returning to roles as coordinators.

After Smith was fired by the Atlanta Falcons at the end of 2023, he spent two seasons as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive coordinator, helping them to twice reach the playoffs.

The approach worked well with Patricia, who elevated the Ohio State defense with NFL-style concepts that ranged from multiple fronts to coverage disguises as he replaced Jim Knowles last offseason. The Buckeyes finished 2025 with the best defense in the Football Bowl Subdivision, allowing the fewest points per game since Alabama 2011.

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It figured to be worth repeating on the other side of the ball, especially after Day had relied on a first-time play-caller last year in Hartline, who had been the Buckeyes’ wide receivers coach before the promotion.

The experience of the 43-year-old Smith also allows Day to continue in a CEO-style role after remaining the primary play-caller for the offense in his first five seasons at the helm of the program. Day began delegating play-calling in 2024, though he briefly returned to the role for the College Football Playoff in December.

Arthur Smith adds a complementary strength

Smith’s best year as an offensive coordinator was with the Tennessee Titans in 2020.

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The Titans were one of the highest-scoring offenses in league with an average of 30.7 points per game that ranked fourth out of 32 teams. They leaned on star running back Derrick Henry, who became only the eighth running back to rush for 2,000 yards in a season.

The Titans also finished drives during Smith’s two years as coordinator, ranking first in 2019 and second in 2020 for their red-zone touchdown percentage. They reached the end zone on three out of every four trips inside opponents’ 20-yard line.

If the success translates to Ohio State, it would pair well with the vertical passing that has long been the defining strength of Day’s offenses.  

There were only five FBS quarterbacks in 2025 who completed more deep balls, as defined by Pro Football Focus as passes traveling at least 20 yards, than redshirt freshman Julian Sayin.

But the Buckeyes experienced a drop-off with both their running game, which went from 5 yards per carry in 2024 to 4.6 yards in 2025, and red-zone efficiency, where their touchdown percentage of 75.81% fell to 66.67%.

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Smith should help in both areas, potential improvement that would enhance an offense that remains stacked with talent due to the return of Sayin and star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

The absence of Chip Kelly, the former offensive coordinator who elevated the Buckeyes’ running game during their national championship season, was noticeable last fall.

The hope for the Buckeyes is that Smith can help them to rediscover the balance.  

Scheme is the priority at Ohio State

Two assistants will replace Hartline.

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Day made the first hire earlier in January with Cortez Hankton as receivers coach before finding Smith.

The addition of Smith will leave Ohio State with a staff of 11 primary on-field assistant coaches, one more than in recent seasons.

The expansion is the result of the NCAA’s removal of limit on staff sizes, a rule change introduced in 2024 allowing schools to hire an unlimited number of assistants to coach during practices and games.

The only restriction that remains in effect involves recruiting. FBS teams can send only 10 assistants off campus to recruit in addition to their head coach.

The current setup suggests Smith would not be out recruiting. It would be a rare arrangement for a coordinator, but not unprecedented, as Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has other assistants on the road in place of offensive coordinator Chad Morris and defensive coordinator Tom Allen.

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As Ohio State moves in a similar direction, it would leave Smith largely focused on game planning and play-calling for their offense without having to travel for recruiting.

Smith would also be Day’s first offensive coordinator without being assigned to a position group.

Joey Kaufman covers Ohio State football for The Columbus Dispatch. Email him at jkaufman@dispatch.com and follow along on Bluesky, Instagram and X for more.





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Columbus City Council urges state to block AEP Ohio rate hikes

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Columbus City Council urges state to block AEP Ohio rate hikes


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  • The Columbus City Council passed a resolution urging state regulators to block a proposed AEP Ohio rate increase.
  • AEP Ohio claims its proposal will save customers money, but the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel estimates it will increase bills by about $30 per month.
  • Councilmembers suggest large electricity users like data centers, not residents, should bear the cost of infrastructure investments.
  • The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio is expected to make a final decision on the rate case later this winter or spring.

The Columbus City Council is encouraging state regulators to protect Columbus residents from rising electricity bills.

The council passed a ceremonial resolution 9-0 on Jan. 26 asking the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio to block American Electric Power Ohio’s request to raise its distribution rates in 2026 for its 1.5 million Ohio customers.

Columbus City Councilmember Christopher Wyche, chair of the council’s Public Utilities & Sustainability committee, told The Dispatch ahead of the meeting that he was bringing the resolution forward because affordability is quickly becoming the number one issue for residents. He said council is concerned because PUCO has recently approved multiple AEP Ohio rate increases.

“It is clear that we are facing not only a rising cost of living crisis, but also an urgent energy affordability crisis that will have serious impacts on Ohio residents,” Wyche said at the meeting.

This symbolic vote comes ahead of state regulators meeting this week to hear evidence in AEP Ohio’s case. The electricity distributor proposed a settlement in the case on Jan. 7 that it says will save customers money. But the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, a state agency that advocates for consumers, says the proposal is riddled with “accounting gimmicks” to disguise a rate hike.

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Customers’ electric bills will actually increase by about $30 more per month after tax credits and additional charges, or riders, are factored in, according to the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel.

AEP Ohio disputes the OCC’s assertions, saying its proposal will save customers $1.22 per month. But the electricity provider’s proposed rate decrease is only possible due to a credit it owes customers anyways, according to information the company sent to The Dispatch. Due to Accumulated Deferred Income Taxes, AEP Ohio owes customers $82 million. The credit is temporary and will run out in 18 months.

Wyche said the invited AEP Ohio representatives to speak at the City Council meeting but the utility declined. Speaking of its proposal, an AEP Ohio spokesperson previously told The Dispatch in an email:

“This is a good thing for AEP Ohio customers – it means all parties took concerns about affordability seriously. This settlement also allows AEP Ohio to invest in delivering reliable electricity safely, as well as make local infrastructure investments in local communities that drive economic development.”

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Wyche told The Dispatch that increased strain on local electricity infrastructure is being driven by large users like data centers, adding that he’d like to see the burden placed on those businesses rather than residential customers. He said the state should require data centers to be built more sustainably so residents don’t foot the bill.

In the resolution, City Council urges PUCO to conduct a study on the impact of data centers on residential customers’ rates.

“A growing region needs to invest in its infrastructure, but longtime residents and working families shouldn’t shoulder that cost,” said Columbus City Council President Shannon G. Hardin in a statement released after the vote. “Runaway utility bills are pushing families to the brink, just to keep the lights on.”

The council’s action follows advocacy from the Ohio Environmental Council Action Fund and Columbus Stand Up. Columbus Stand Up has collected more than 2,500 signatures on its petition opposing rate hikes.

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“AEP operates as an exploitive monopoly and without firm intervention, it will continue to extract resources from households, schools and public institutions across the state,” Columbus Stand Up co-founder Kwesi Low said at the meeting.

Because of the severe winter weather, the scheduled start of the PUCO evidentiary hearing was continued to Jan. 28, 2026, at 9:30 a.m. in Hearing Room 11-A at the offices of the commission, 180 E. Broad St., 11th Floor, Columbus. PUCO expects to make a decision in AEP Ohio’s case later this winter or spring, according to a spokesperson for PUCO.

Columbus Stand Up also moved its “Lights Out on AEP Rally” from Jan. 27 to Jan. 28 at noon at PUCO headquarters.

The city council meeting on Jan. 26 was held virtually due to winter storm Fern’s lingering impact. The budget hearing scheduled for Jan. 27 will also be held virtually due to the weather.

Government and politics reporter Jordan Laird can be reached at jlaird@dispatch.com. Follow her on X, Instagram and Bluesky at @LairdWrites.

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