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Ohio State vs. Northwestern football prediction: What the analytics say

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Ohio State vs. Northwestern football prediction: What the analytics say


Big Ten football kicks off on the shores of Lake Michigan this weekend as No. 2 Ohio State hits the road against Northwestern. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State is still behind undefeated Oregon and Indiana in the Big Ten standings and, with the loss to the Ducks, needs to stay winning with the Hoosiers coming up next weekend.

Northwestern moved to 2-4 in Big Ten play after getting past Purdue last time out but sits 120th in passing output and 126th out of 134 FBS teams in scoring production with 18 points per game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Wildcats this weekend.

Ohio State is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 95.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Northwestern as the presumptive winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 19,060 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wildcats edged out OSU in the other 940 predictions.

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How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 26.7 points better than Northwestern on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Wildcats.

That’s because Ohio State is a 28.5 point favorite against Northwestern, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

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The book didn’t list any moneyline odds for the game, given the Buckeyes are such big favorites.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will make things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Northwestern is getting 53 percent of bets to either win outright in the upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 29 points in a loss.

The other 47 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams and third nationally with a 92.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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That model gives the Buckeyes a win total projection of 11 games this season.

Northwestern’s postseason hopes are just about dashed, but not extinguished just yet.

The model projects the Wildcats will win 4.6 games in ‘24.

That translates to a 10.9 percent shot to become bowl eligible this season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

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Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

  1. Oregon
  2. Ohio State
  3. Texas
  4. Penn State
  5. Indiana
  6. BYU
  7. Tennessee
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Miami
  10. Alabama
  11. Ole Miss
  12. Georgia
  13. Boise State
  14. SMU
  15. Texas A&M
  16. Kansas State
  17. Colorado
  18. Washington State
  19. Louisville
  20. Clemson
  21. South Carolina
  22. LSU
  23. Missouri
  24. Army
  25. Tulane

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Menards to pay 10 states, including Ohio, $4.25 million in rebate settlement

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Menards to pay 10 states, including Ohio, .25 million in rebate settlement


COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — Ohio is part of a multistate lawsuit settlement against home improvement store Menards.

According to the state Attorney General’s Office, Ohio and nine other states reached the settlement with Menards, a Wisconsin-based home-improvement retail store, over allegations of deceptive rebate advertising.

The 10-state led investigation revealed that Menards would give shoppers the impression that they were getting an immediate discount while shopping through its advertising, when in fact, savings actually came in the form of a rebate or in-store credit.

The investigation raised concerns with Menards’ marketing strategy and sales practices, alleging the following of the company:

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  • Advertised 11% off or 11% off everything that suggested an instant price cut, even though customers received only a rebate on future purchases.
  • Listed prices already at an 11% discount, reinforcing the idea that shoppers were getting an in-store discount.
  • Failed to clearly explain the important limits of the rebate program, burying key details in the fine print.
  • Tell customers that Rebates International was a separate company handling rebates, even though it is operated by Menards itself.

The settlement, announced Thursday, included an agreement by Menards that it would, in part, discontinue ads suggesting immediate discounts, clearly explaining the rules, limits, and conditions of its rebate program, and offer customers an easier path towards claiming rebates, both in person and online, among other changes.

In addition, Menards will pay participating states $4.25 million in fees, of which $365,173.05 will go toward the Ohio Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Enforcement Fund.



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Ohio State dominate latest power ranking as nine Buckeyes rank inside Top 50 players

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Ohio State dominate latest power ranking as nine Buckeyes rank inside Top 50 players


The honors continue to roll in for this Ohio State Buckeyes football team.

From young players ready for another College Football Playoff run next season to players hungry for one more run starting December 31 before the NFL Draft, this Ohio State Buckeyes team is loaded with talent headed into their seventh playoffs appearance since the CFP era began in 2014.

Five defensive players and four offensive players headlined a class of extremely talented Buckeyes. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza took the No. 1 spot to go along with his Heisman and Maxwell honors.

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An offensive Ohio State Buckeye took the No. 2 spot right behind Mendoza.

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Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Arvell Reese (8) tackles Michigan Wolverines running back Bryson Kuzdzal (24) during the NCAA football game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich. on Nov. 29, 2025. Ohio State won 27-9. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith takes the No. 2 spot

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Jeremiah Smith was ranked behind Mendoza along with his gun-slinging sophomore quarterback. Julian Sayin was the second-highest ranked quarterback on the list at No. 5.

“Smith caught 80 balls for 1,086 yards and 11 touchdowns as a sophomore, but that doesn’t really tell the story…Smith commands double-teams constantly, draws the attention of everyone’s best corner, and has every defensive coordinator he faces scheming to slow him down. And none of it has mattered.”

ESPN’s David Hale

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Smith is expected to have one more dominant season with the Buckeyes next season where fans hope to see him paired next to five-star recruit Chris Henry Jr. Senior wide receiver Carnell Tate has been an impressive receiving mate for Smith the past two seasons. Tate caught 48 passes, nine touchdowns, and had 838 yards. He ranked No. 26 in the rankings.

Offensive tackle Austin Siereveld ranked No. 44 as well.

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The defense takes over

All five of Ohio State’s defensive players on the list ranked inside the top-22. Junior linebacker Sonny Styles sat at No. 21 to kick things off for the defense. The Buckeyes have had the best defense in college football for the entire season and these are the names that have made it happen. Projected first round NFL Draft Arvell Reese took the No. 16 spot.

“A new set of stars emerged to lead the nation’s No. 1 defense this fall, and Reese was undeniably front and center. He has thrived under new coordinator Matt Patricia, recording 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss from the edge position and finished second on the squad with 62 total tackles…Reese was named Big Ten’s Linebacker of the Year and recorded a sack in six of Ohio State’s first eight games of the season.”

ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg

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Defensive linemen Kayden McDonald and Caden Curry ranked at No. 13 and No. 11 respectively. Safety Caleb Downs was the highest ranked defensive Buckeye at No. 7. Downs is a simply a lockdown player who can play corner or safety while still being able to tackle at a high level. If he chooses to declare for the NFL Draft after the season is over, he’ll be slated to go within the top 10 in most mock drafts.

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Opposing quarterbacks only targeted downs 20 times for the entire season. Only nine passes were caught on his watch as the primary defender.

“The longest completion he gave up was 17 yards. A 14-yard completion in the second quarter of the Big Ten title game was the first one he’d given up in nearly two months. There is not a more lockdown corner in the country than Downs.”

ESPN’s David Hale

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The Ohio State Buckeyes are waiting for the winner of the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes against the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies in the first round of the College Football Playoffs this Saturday at 12:00pm Eastern on ABC/ESPN.



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From seed to living room: Christmas tree care, myths and Ohio connections

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From seed to living room: Christmas tree care, myths and Ohio connections


CLEVELAND, Ohio — For many households that do not otherwise keep plants, a cut Christmas tree may be the only one they actively care for all year, watered daily and monitored carefully.

And every December, families arrive at Sugargrove Tree Farm in Ashland, ready to make a once-a-year decision: which tree will carry their lights and ornaments and serve as a backdrop for holiday selfies. I recently spoke Bob Smith, who owns and operates the cut-your-own tree farm, about his tree care advice.

Read all of Susan Brownstein’s columns here.

Smith has a short list of rules for customers once their tree is home, and the most important one is simple.

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“Water,” he says. “Always keep it watered. The bottom of the trunk should never be exposed to air.” When a freshly cut tree sits dry for too long, sap seals the cut surface, forming a scab that prevents water uptake.

If a tree has been without water for more than six or seven hours—for example, if you store it in the garage for a few days before bringing it in the house—Smith recommends making a fresh cut before putting it back in water. One to two hours of exposure is usually fine; six or seven hours is not.

Smith was also eager to bust some persistent Christmas tree care myths. Adding Sprite or aspirin to the water doesn’t help, Smith says, and worrying about water temperature is unnecessary. Warm water quickly cools to room temperature anyway.

“Tap water is fine,” he says. “The tree just needs hydration.”

Placement in the house, on the other hand, is important. A hot air register right next to the tree is “really, really bad,” Smith says, and dries it out regardless of how much water is in the stand. Cooler conditions are best.

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He has one longstanding customer who sets up her Fraser fir in a three-season room and keeps it there until April, finally taking it out when the daffodils bloom.

Norway spruce has poor needle retention, regardless of how much it is watered.Courtesy Sugargrove Tree Farm

Tree species also plays a major role in how long a tree stays fresh. Norway spruce, while classic in appearance, has inherently poor needle retention and will often drop needles within two weeks, no matter how well it’s cared for. Fir trees perform much better indoors, and among them, the Canaan fir is rapidly gaining in popularity.

From seed to living room: Christmas Tree care, myths, and Ohio connections
Canaan fir was developed for the Christmas tree market in Ohio and is growing in popularity because of its great needle retention.Courtesy Sugargrove Tree Farm

Pronounced “ka-NANE,” the Canaan fir is growing rapidly in popularity as a Christmas tree and has an origin story with deep Ohio roots (pun intended).

The tree takes its name from Canaan Valley in West Virginia, where it was first identified, and its development as a Christmas tree accelerated in the 1950s through work at The Ohio State University. That early research helped establish Canaan fir as a reliable option for growers, combining good needle retention, strong branching, and most importantly for growers like Smith, the ability to grow in clay soils.

From seed to living room: Christmas Tree care, myths, and Ohio connections
Bob Smith of Sugargrove Tree Farm in Ashland prepares a fir seedling for growing.Courtesy Sugargrove Tree Farm

Many landscape plants are propagated from cuttings to ensure genetic consistency, but Smith explained that Canaan fir trees are grown from seed, and Ohio plays a significant role in that process.

Seed orchards near the OSU Agricultural Research and Development Center in Wooster produce Canaan fir seed from the best of the original “mother trees” bred by Dr. Brown’s team. That seed is sent to Weyerhaeuser, a large forestry company based in Washington state, where it is stored, tested for viability, and grown into seedlings by request from tree farms like Sugargrove.

When Smith receives them, the trees are already two years old and about 18 to 20 inches tall. From there, he grows them on for roughly eight more years before they’re ready to sell.

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“That’s a decade of work for one tree,” Smith says.

From seed to living room: Christmas Tree care, myths, and Ohio connections
Tree seedlings are planted when they are about two years old and take another eight to 10 years to reach Christmas tree size.Courtesy Sugargrove Tree Farm

That timeline helps explain why growing conditions matter so much. National data and maps of Christmas tree production show that Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon and Washington produce 80 to 90 percent of the trees grown in the U.S., with just a few counties accounting for half the total.

According to Smith, trees grown in North Carolina can reach six feet in five years thanks to its ideal climate and sandy soils, half the time it takes in Ohio’s heavier clay soils.

Sugargrove supplements some of its stock from North Carolina, but Ohio-grown trees remain central to the farm. Smith grows Canaan fir, Fraser fir, Norway spruce and white pine.

(However, the early bird gets the tree; Sugargrove began selling trees on Black Friday and sold out by December 14 this year.)

From seed to living room: Christmas Tree care, myths, and Ohio connections
White pine is a classic tree choice for midcentury decorating styles with tinsel, popcorn, and a string of lights–no heavy ornaments.Courtesy Sugargrove Tree Farm

Each species has tradeoffs. Fraser firs are popular for their shape and sweet scent, though Smith notes they’re less tolerant of stress than Canaan firs. White pine can be a good option for lighter decorating styles.

“Think 1950s,” Smith says, “Popcorn strings, tinsel, and lights,” but no heavy ornaments so as to avoid the Charlie Brown tree effect.

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Fragrance can also be a factor in tree choice. Smith jokes that old-fashioned blue spruce (which he no longer sells due to diminishing demand) smells like cat urine to him, but he acknowledges some people associate it strongly with Christmas.

Canaan fir has a citrus-like scent, while Fraser fir has a sweeter scent “that smells like Christmas” to him. Pines do not have much fragrance on their own, but combined with garlands and wreaths, a home can still achieve that treasured holiday smell.

Many families debate whether to get a real or artificial tree, but there are differences even among real trees.

Choosing a Christmas tree from an Ohio tree farm supports land that stays in agricultural production rather than being developed. When a tree from a tree farm is cut, it is replaced with a young tree that absorbs carbon as it grows.

Compared with a natural tree shipped from Oregon or the Pacific Northwest, a locally grown tree avoids thousands of miles of transportation and supports regional agriculture. And if a cut tree is composted after the holidays, its carbon is returned to the soil.

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Whether a Christmas tree is the only plant you’ll have all year or just another member of your plant family, the care comes down to: choose a species that fits your home and decorating style, keep it away from heat, and above all, keep it watered.

And if you choose a tree from an Ohio tree farm, you continue a cycle that can begin with an Ohio-grown seed and ends, years later, at the center of a family’s Christmas story.



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