Ohio
For better or worse, which Ohio State lineups have contributed late in recent games?
Video: Ohio State’s Bruce Thornton, Felix Okpara after Michigan loss
Ohio State’s Bruce Thornton and Felix Okpara talk with reporters after a loss at Michigan on Jan. 15, 2024.
The first crack in the Ohio State armor was delivered by Saturday’s opponent.
Riding high at 8-1 overall and on the cusp of climbing into the Associated Press top 25, the Buckeyes led by 18 points at Penn State with 15:31 to play only to stumble their way to an 83-80 loss. It was a gradual surrender by the Buckeyes, who would use 10 different lineup combinations in the final 15 minutes in a futile effort to stave off the Penn State comeback.
The loss showed that Ohio State wasn’t past occasionally getting burned when playing with fire, and that lesson has been hammered home again during the last two weeks. When the Buckeyes host the Nittany Lions in the rematch, they’ll do so on a three-game losing streak that has seen them again falter late. But unlike in the Penn State game, or the Jan. 10 home loss to No. 15 Wisconsin, Ohio State rallied late after falling behind by double digits only to fall short.
Down by 10 at Indiana with 3:34 to play, Ohio State made it a 67-65 game with 1:44 remaining but couldn’t get another stop and score to tie the game or take the lead in a 71-65 loss on Jan. 6. Nine days later against Michigan, the Buckeyes turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead with a 16-0 run around the midpoint of the second half but couldn’t hold on from there in a 73-65 loss inside the Crisler Center.
In examining the lineups used by coach Chris Holtmann in both games, there is no real overlap between the players who led the temporary comebacks – or the ones who allowed the deficits to grow.
At Indiana, Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle Jr., Jamison Battle and Felix Okpara were on the court for the entirety of the late-game comeback as Scotty Middleton and Evan Mahaffey rotated in and out of the lineup. As Indiana turned Ohio State’s 50-49 lead into a 66-56 Hoosier advantage during a span of 7:36, Ohio State’s starting lineup (Thornton, Gayle, Battle, Mahaffey and Okpara) was outscored 4-0 in 2:37. Then, in 21 seconds as the Buckeyes were rallying late, the starters outscored the Hoosiers 2-0.
Against Michigan, though, the Buckeyes rallied by using three different lineups that had three players in common, two of whom haven’t made much of a statistical impact in recent weeks.
While Ohio State rotated Thornton, Gayle and Middleton through those lineups, the constants were Dale Bonner, Zed Key and Okpara. It was the most success the Buckeyes have had playing Key and Okpara together all season, and from 12:00 until 4:53 Ohio State outscored Michigan 16-8 with Bonner, Key and Okpara together.
The heart of that run came with Gayle and Middleton in the backcourt, allowing the Buckeyes to outscore Michigan 6-0 in 1:55 before Thornton returned with 8:09 to play and the lead at 56-55.
Ohio State Buckeyes: Join the Ohio State Sports Insider text group with Bill Rabinowitz, Joey Kaufman Adam Jardy
“In particular, thought our bench gave us a lift,” Holtmann said after the game. “Dale was great in that second-half stretch. Playing big helped us. Obviously we’ve got to finish games and close out games better but I thought there were really some positives we can take into this week.”
With 4:53 left and the Ohio State lead at two points, Holtmann went back to his starters and rode them until the final seconds. They were outscored, 12-6, in the next 4:29 to finish the game at minus-4 (36 points scored, 40 allowed) in 20:47.
Against Penn State, Ohio State’s starters were plus-3 (31 points scored, 28 allowed) in 12:10. Against Indiana, they were minus-6 (17 points scored, 23 allowed) in 14:03. The 20:47 of playing time at Michigan was the most for an Ohio State lineup in a game this season.
“When our body’s hurting in the last 2-3 minutes of the game, we’ve got to take that next step,” Okpara said. “We do it in practice every day. We’ve got to keep going hard when we’re tired.”
Bonner’s play at Michigan, and Key’s ability to play alongside Okpara, could help with that. The Penn State rematch will be the next chance to find out.
ajardy@dispatch.com
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COLUMBUS, Ohio (WSYX) — RJ Day, a college quarterback prospect and son of OSU coach Ryan Day, was recently spotted at OSU’s game against Purdue during his official visit to Purdue University.
Day, who is ranked No. 32 in Ohio and 61st among signal callers in the 2027 class, recently delivered a standout performance in a playoff game against the Ashland Arrows.
According to a post by the school on Friday night, Day unofficially threw for what would be a school-record 482 yards and three touchdowns.
Earlier this season, Day had an impressive game against Columbus Africentric High School, completing 16 of 19 passes for 275 yards and five touchdowns on Sept. 5.
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RJ Day currently holds offers from Akron, Boston College, Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio), and Syracuse.
Ohio State football is set to take on Purdue at Ross-Ade Stadium on Nov. 7.
The Buckeyes received the No. 1 ranking in the College Football Playoff committee’s rankings on Nov. 4. Ohio State is 8-0 and ranks a spot higher than Indiana, also undefeated and projected to play the Buckeyes in the Big Ten championship game.
Purdue kept it close against Michigan, but the Boilermakers lost 21-16, falling to 2-7 overall and 0-6 in the Big Ten.
Here’s what Dispatch writers think will happen in the Ohio State-Purdue football game:
Stream Ohio State vs. Purdue
Ohio State vs. Purdue odds, money line, over/under
Odds courtesy of BetMGM (As of Nov. 7)
- Spread: Ohio State by 29.5
- Over/under: 48.5
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Ohio State vs. Purdue predictions
Joey Kaufman, Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State 45, Purdue 3. While the Boilermakers are rebuilding under first-year coach Barry Odom and remain winless in the Big Ten, they have been more competitive this year. The average margin of their six conference losses is just 11 points, and three of the last four have been by one score or less. But a season-ending ankle injury to star running back Devin Mockobee only adds to the plate of Ryan Browne, who has thrown the second-most interceptions among Big Ten quarterbacks. It won’t be much different than last year’s game in Columbus, though Purdue can avoid being shut out.
Rob Oller, Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State 48, Purdue 7. The Boilermakers have not won a Big Ten game since beating Indiana in the finale of the 2023 regular season, going 1-15 over that stretch. Over the same span, the Buckeyes have gone 12-3. So you’re saying there’s a chance? Never say never, but, er, never. Purdue is better than a year ago, and actually has been competitive in three of its last four games, including a 21-16 loss at Michigan, but Ohio State has too many weapons on both sides of the ball for this to be anything other than an OSU “name your score.”
Dan Aulbach, Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State 42, Purdue 3. Though the final score predictions are starting to sound like a broken record, Ohio State should have no problem this weekend at Ross-Ade Stadium with a passing offense on a roll and two Heisman campaigns underway for Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith.
Ohio State vs. Purdue scouting report: What we’re watching
Joey Kaufman: The week that Ohio State began formally pushing quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith as candidates for the Heisman Trophy is well-timed with an afternoon that could allow them to pad their stats. Purdue allows 8.7 yards per pass attempt, ranking 128th out of 136 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, and only Marshall has surrendered more completions of 40 or more yards. As long as the weather in West Lafayette cooperates, Sayin and Smith could put up some video game-type numbers.
Rob Oller: A better than 50% chance of rain is forecast for Saturday’s game in West Lafayette. If the heavens open on the Buckeyes, it’s possible Ohio State will lean into trying to improve its running game, which is about the only facet of the team that has come under question. Then again, I’m not sure even a slippery, wet football would be enough to squelch a passing attack that licks its chops knowing Purdue’s pass defense ranks 16th in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed.
Dan Aulbach: Ohio State has scored a touchdown on its opening drive the past two games. Not only have the Buckeyes started quickly on offense, but Julian Sayin continues to air the ball downfield with precision to get the offense to the red zone quickly. I’m interested to see how aggressively Ohio State wants to get a big lead on the road against Purdue, and if they grab an early lead, will the leading Heisman candidate continue to take deep shots for the entire contest?
Julian Sayin has a 400-yard game
Joey Kaufman: After he was just 7 yards shy of throwing for 400 yards at Wisconsin three weeks ago, Sayin will have the opportunity to reach that mark against another Big Ten cellar dweller as Purdue remains prone to giving up big plays through the air. Even if the Boilermakers are in prevent mode after Penn State was beaten over the top, Sayin has too many weapons not to carve them up. He’ll be the first Buckeyes quarterback since C.J. Stroud to have a 400-yard passing game.
Buckeyes’ rushing yards surpass passing yards
Rob Oller: Conventional wisdom says Ohio State will go pass-happy against the Boilermakers to pad the stats of Heisman candidates Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, but from a team preparation standpoint the Buckeyes need to get their ground game up and running, so the final stats will show more run yards than passing yards, which has not happened since Nov. 12, 2022 against Indiana (340 run, 322 pass), which also was the last time OSU topped 300 yards rushing.
Jeremiah Smith scores 3 touchdowns
Dan Aulbach: It’s Heisman candidacy season, and while Sayin leads the betting odds for the trophy, expect Jeremiah Smith to start running up the stat sheet. Look for the Buckeyes to get creative on offense to get No. 4 to the end zone multiple times. A three-touchdown game would certainly turn some heads in the Heisman race.ual improvement in his maturity as Ohio State’s quarterback. Though on the road against a weaker opponent, the redshirt freshman showed once more his accuracy is irreplicable and I fully expect his completion percentage to remain atop the FBS.
Big Ten football gets underway this weekend as reigning national champion and No. 1 ranked Ohio State looks to preserve its undefeated record on the road against Purdue on Saturday.
Purdue is yet to win a game in Big Ten competition this season, but has some experience upsetting Ohio State at home, notably pulling off a stunning 49-20 result back in 2018.
What do the analytics predict as the Buckeyes and Boilermakers meet in this Big Ten clash?
For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Purdue compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.
As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Buckeyes over the Boilers in this one.
SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Purdue by a projected score of 40 to 11 and will win the game by an expected margin of 29.3 points in the process.
The model gives the Buckeyes a near-perfect 97 percent chance of outright victory.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.
The betting markets predictably like the Buckeyes by several scores.
Ohio State is a 29.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -10000 and for Purdue at +3000 to win outright.
Ohio State arrives with an ironclad defense that allows fewer than seven points per game and a sharply efficient offense.
Purdue, still rebuilding and winless in Big Ten play, simply doesn’t have the firepower or consistency to mount a reliable challenge.
Expect the Buckeyes to dominate tempo early, flip into cruise mode in the second half, and seal a comprehensive victory while Purdue scraps hard but falls short.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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