Nebraska
Nebraska vs UTEP: The Start of Something Special
After persuading Dylan Raiola to switch his commitment from Georgia to Nebraska, all that’s left is to hang the banner in the Hawks Center to crown the Huskers the 2024 off-season champions.
With Raiola’s potential to shatter every Nebraska passing record and Rhule adding two new pass catchers, Jahmal Banks and Isaiah Neyor, the 2024 season looks promising. The return of Heinrich Haarberg, the 2023 leading passer, further adds depth to the offense. Whether he plays as a Taysom Hill-type gadget player or a Tim Tebow-esque goal-line QB, his presence will be felt. Nebraska gets an excellent opportunity to start its season on the right note against an opponent who hired a new coach.
I’ll frequently mention Expected Points Added (EPA), which is one stat I’ll cite in my pregame and post-game articles. For a given down, distance, and field position, both teams have a probability of scoring the next points in the game (the expected points). After the play, the teams have a new down, distance, and field position, resulting in a new expected points value. The difference in expected points before and after the play is Expected Points Added. This metric is stated with respect to the offense.
A positive EPA play has improved the offense’s chances of scoring the next points. A negative EPA play has improved the defense’s chance of scoring next. While assigning all the credit for EPA to the QB on a passing play isn’t perfect (after all, ten other players contributed to the play’s success), it does give us a way to rank the performance of skill position players against others in terms of who makes plays that contribute to winning.
As soon as Dylan Raiola committed to Nebraska, it was presumed he would be the starter. He’s potentially a generational player who at least dresses like Patrick Mahomes and will hopefully play like him. Since he’s yet to play a college snap, the graph below shows Heinrich Haarberg’s 2023 cumulative season EPA. The total EPA graph is a running total of all plays where the QB ran the ball, passed the ball, or took a sack. If the line goes up, the QB was involved in a play that helped his team’s scoring chances. However, if the line goes down, that play hurts the team’s chances of scoring (and increases the opponent’s chances).
UTEP’s Cade McConnell and Nebraska’s Heinrich Haarberg struggled in 2023, finishing with a negative EPA. This means that the total contributions during the season hindered scoring points. In 2024, I don’t expect this to be the case for Dylan Raiola. I predict he’ll finish the season with 3,000 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. Nine players in 2023 accomplished 3000 and 30, and four of the nine were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Hitting those benchmarks in his freshman season would clearly indicate his elite pedigree.
The carry distribution in the chart below goes beyond the simple “rushing average” statistic. A player with 10 carries each for 4 yards and a player with one carry for 35 yards and nine carries for 5 yards both have a rushing average of 4 YPC, but their distribution of carries would look widely different. The black vertical, dashed line represents carries of 0 yards. The two quarterbacks on the table have a significant peak of negative yards since sacks count against their rushing totals. The goldenrod vertical, dashed line represents carries of 10 yards (a first down). Emmet Johnson, for example, would consistently get positive yards but would rarely break big runs of 10+ yards.
In addition to being the Huskers leading passer in 2023, Heinrich Haarberg was the leading rusher. However, Haarberg’s rushing EPA was also negative, thanks to many sacks and negative carries. Fortunately, I expect fewer QB carries in 2024, but I could still see Haarberg getting some work as a power runner near the goal line. Emmett Johnson consistently had positive carries in 2023, while Gabe Ervin flashed some big play upside in limited availability.
UTEP doesn’t return much rushing production from its 2023 team after its top two rushers from last season entered the portal. The new head coach, Scotty Walden, brings in his leading rusher from 2023, Jevon Jackson, who rushed for 1300 yards at Austin Peay. He’s joined by TCU transfer Corey Wren, who also played at Florida State.
This upcoming game is a crucial opportunity for Dylan Raiola to gain valuable experience in full-speed college football before the significant week two matchup with Colorado. I anticipate a comfortable win for Nebraska. My prediction for the season is a conservative 7-5 finish and a return to a bowl game. I expect Raiola to face some challenges as a freshman and make a few mistakes that might cost the Huskers a game or two; I also believe his natural talent will keep Nebraska competitive against even the most formidable opponents on the schedule.
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NORTH PLATTE, Neb. (KNOP) – The Nebraska Extension hosted a workshop Wednesday morning for ag producers, focusing on how to use drought monitoring and forecasting tools, assess drought impacts and risks, explore management strategies, and identify available resources.
Organizers say the goal is to help producers make more informed, timely decisions as changing weather patterns continue to affect soil moisture, crop conditions, and long-term planning.
The session also highlighted practical tools farmers can use to track drought development and adjust operations before conditions worsen.
“The really warm temperatures and strong wind just sucked the moisture out of the soil, out of the vegetation and this has been going on since at least October and were not going to come out of it over the night, it’s going to take a while to rebuild those moisture supplies even if we get average moisture it will be enough for vegetation but it won’t helped us recover what we’ve already lost,” said Deborah Bathke, Nebraska state climatologist.
Officials add that continued education and early planning are key to helping producers stay resilient through increasingly variable growing seasons.
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Adam Carriker is joined by HuskerOnline publisher Sean Callahan to break down the upcoming season for Matt Rhule and Nebraska football. Callahan gives unique insight on what Nebraska’s offense may look like, realistic expectation for quarterback Anthony Colandrea, if the offensive line is legit better, the new 4-2-5 defense, the undersized defensive line and if the Huskers will win more than seven games. Also, will Nebraska basketball make a Sweet 16 run again?
Hit the play button for that and more in this episode of the Carriker Chronicles. For a synopsis, scroll down.
Synopsis
In the latest installment of the Carriker Chronicles, Adam Carriker and Sean Callahan discuss the upcoming season for Nebraska football and why this year is so important. They explain that Year 4 under Matt Rhule is a big turning point because by now, the program should reflect his system, culture, and recruiting. If things are going to work long-term, this is the season where fans should really start to see it.
One of the first things they talk about is the overall vibe of the offseason. Callahan mentions that Nebraska has “closed the lab,” meaning the team is done experimenting and now fully focused on playing football. The expectation is that players understand the system better and can execute at a higher level without the outside distractions.
They also discuss the offense and what it might look like under Dana Holgorsen. While there may be some similarities to past systems, there will also be differences based on the players Nebraska has. Part of the conversation is quarterback Anthony Colandrea, and they set realistic expectations for him. He doesn’t have to be perfect, but he does need to be consistent, make plays with his feet and take care of the football.
The offensive line is another key topic. Callahan believes the group has improved this offseason, especially with players like Elijah Pritchett, who seems to be on the uptick. If the offensive line can protect the quarterback and create running lanes, it could make a huge difference for the entire offense. They also mention the running back room, which has potential but still needs to prove itself during the season.
On defense, Nebraska is expected to run more of a 4-2-5 scheme this year. This means more speed on the field, but it also raises questions about size, especially on the defensive line. One of the biggest concerns is whether the defensive front can hold up against physical teams. However, they point out that the secondary might be the strongest position group, which could help balance things out.
Special teams are briefly discussed, with the expectation that they will be solid but not necessarily a major strength or weakness. Recruiting is another area where Nebraska seems to be trending in the right direction, which is important for building long-term success.
They also touch on men’s basketball and whether the team can make another Sweet 16 run. While it’s possible, it will depend heavily on player development and who will replace those that have left.
To wrap it up, they debate whether Nebraska football will win more than seven games this season. It’s seen as a realistic but challenging goal. This is a critical year for Matt Rhule and the program, and fans should have a much clearer idea of the team’s future by the end of the season.
Program order
- 00:00: Intro
- 01:09: Sean Callahan Joins the Show
- 01:54: Year 4 Under Matt Rhule
- 04:04: Offseason Vibe: Closing the Lab, Focusing on Football
- 05:30: Dana Holgorsen: Similarities & Differences to Expect
- 07:30: Offensive Line: Offseason Improvements
- 09:45: Elijah Pritchett Spotlight
- 12:54: Running Back Room: What to Expect
- 15:20: Defensive Scheme: What to Expect This Year
- 18:53: Biggest Defensive Question Marks
- 22:10: Strongest Defensive Position Group
- 23:00: Special Teams Outlook
- 25:08: Recruiting Class Breakdown
- 27:45: Nebraska Basketball Preview
- 29:50: Over/Under: 7 Wins Next Season
- 31:18: Fan Questions
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LINCOLN, Neb. (KOLN) – The Nebraska baseball team lost to Kansas 9-7 on Tuesday in front of a record crowd at Hoglund Park. The Huskers took an early lead on an RBI single by National Freshman of the Week Drew Grego. After giving up three unanswered runs, Nebraska rallied to go back in front on a 3rd-inning single by Will Jesske. Both Grego and Jesske finished with two hits in the game.
Kansas, however, took control in the middle innings. The Jayhawks got home runs from Tyson Owens and Josh Dykoff in the sixth frame. Both round-trippers came off NU relief pitcher Ty Horn. Kansas added insurance in the 7th inning before a late rally by the Huskers.
Nebraska trimmed a five-run deficit to two, but couldn’t complete the comeback on the road.
The Huskers’ loss is their second to the Jayhawks this season. Nebraska’s record drops to 31-10 overall.
Will Bolt’s team returns to action on Friday at Illinois. Game one is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. in Champaign.
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