Nebraska
Nebraska vs UTEP: The Start of Something Special
After persuading Dylan Raiola to switch his commitment from Georgia to Nebraska, all that’s left is to hang the banner in the Hawks Center to crown the Huskers the 2024 off-season champions.
With Raiola’s potential to shatter every Nebraska passing record and Rhule adding two new pass catchers, Jahmal Banks and Isaiah Neyor, the 2024 season looks promising. The return of Heinrich Haarberg, the 2023 leading passer, further adds depth to the offense. Whether he plays as a Taysom Hill-type gadget player or a Tim Tebow-esque goal-line QB, his presence will be felt. Nebraska gets an excellent opportunity to start its season on the right note against an opponent who hired a new coach.
I’ll frequently mention Expected Points Added (EPA), which is one stat I’ll cite in my pregame and post-game articles. For a given down, distance, and field position, both teams have a probability of scoring the next points in the game (the expected points). After the play, the teams have a new down, distance, and field position, resulting in a new expected points value. The difference in expected points before and after the play is Expected Points Added. This metric is stated with respect to the offense.
A positive EPA play has improved the offense’s chances of scoring the next points. A negative EPA play has improved the defense’s chance of scoring next. While assigning all the credit for EPA to the QB on a passing play isn’t perfect (after all, ten other players contributed to the play’s success), it does give us a way to rank the performance of skill position players against others in terms of who makes plays that contribute to winning.
As soon as Dylan Raiola committed to Nebraska, it was presumed he would be the starter. He’s potentially a generational player who at least dresses like Patrick Mahomes and will hopefully play like him. Since he’s yet to play a college snap, the graph below shows Heinrich Haarberg’s 2023 cumulative season EPA. The total EPA graph is a running total of all plays where the QB ran the ball, passed the ball, or took a sack. If the line goes up, the QB was involved in a play that helped his team’s scoring chances. However, if the line goes down, that play hurts the team’s chances of scoring (and increases the opponent’s chances).
UTEP’s Cade McConnell and Nebraska’s Heinrich Haarberg struggled in 2023, finishing with a negative EPA. This means that the total contributions during the season hindered scoring points. In 2024, I don’t expect this to be the case for Dylan Raiola. I predict he’ll finish the season with 3,000 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. Nine players in 2023 accomplished 3000 and 30, and four of the nine were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Hitting those benchmarks in his freshman season would clearly indicate his elite pedigree.
The carry distribution in the chart below goes beyond the simple “rushing average” statistic. A player with 10 carries each for 4 yards and a player with one carry for 35 yards and nine carries for 5 yards both have a rushing average of 4 YPC, but their distribution of carries would look widely different. The black vertical, dashed line represents carries of 0 yards. The two quarterbacks on the table have a significant peak of negative yards since sacks count against their rushing totals. The goldenrod vertical, dashed line represents carries of 10 yards (a first down). Emmet Johnson, for example, would consistently get positive yards but would rarely break big runs of 10+ yards.
In addition to being the Huskers leading passer in 2023, Heinrich Haarberg was the leading rusher. However, Haarberg’s rushing EPA was also negative, thanks to many sacks and negative carries. Fortunately, I expect fewer QB carries in 2024, but I could still see Haarberg getting some work as a power runner near the goal line. Emmett Johnson consistently had positive carries in 2023, while Gabe Ervin flashed some big play upside in limited availability.
UTEP doesn’t return much rushing production from its 2023 team after its top two rushers from last season entered the portal. The new head coach, Scotty Walden, brings in his leading rusher from 2023, Jevon Jackson, who rushed for 1300 yards at Austin Peay. He’s joined by TCU transfer Corey Wren, who also played at Florida State.
This upcoming game is a crucial opportunity for Dylan Raiola to gain valuable experience in full-speed college football before the significant week two matchup with Colorado. I anticipate a comfortable win for Nebraska. My prediction for the season is a conservative 7-5 finish and a return to a bowl game. I expect Raiola to face some challenges as a freshman and make a few mistakes that might cost the Huskers a game or two; I also believe his natural talent will keep Nebraska competitive against even the most formidable opponents on the schedule.
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Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, following HuskerMax on X, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.
May 24-30 marks Invasive Species Awareness Week. Nebraska Public Power District and Nebraska Game and Parks want to remind lake-goers to be careful and help prevent invasive species from getting into Nebraska lakes.
Nebraska Invasive Species Awareness Week provides an opportunity for residents to learn more about these species and discover how simple actions can help prevent their spread. Throughout the week, residents can learn more about invasive species impacting the state’s natural resources and economy, and what they can do to help prevent their spread. A series of webinars hosted by invasive species professionals will be held May 26-29 at 1 p.m. each day. On May 27, the public is invited to participate in an online invasive species trivia night, where participants can test their knowledge and win prizes from the comfort of their homes.
Invasive species are one of the leading threats to Nebraska’s natural resources, impacting ecosystems, outdoor recreation, agriculture, and state economies. From invasive plants crowding out native habitats to aquatic invasive species damaging waterways and infrastructure, prevention and education are critical to protecting Nebraska’s land and water resources.
Invasive species like zebra mussels can easily spread from one pond or lake to another if boat owners don’t fully drain all water from their watercraft after each use. Once zebra mussels enter a waterway, they attach to any available surface and reproduce rapidly, often clogging pipes and infrastructure.
The Nebraska water bodies with established zebra mussel populations are Lewis and Clark Lake, Lake Yankton, the Missouri River, Offutt Air Force Base Lake, and Beaver Lake near Plattsmouth. To combat the spread of zebra mussels and other aquatic invasive species, Game and Parks staff will conduct boat inspections at boat ramps statewide this summer. Since its implementation in 2020, the Aquatic Invasive Species Program has inspected more than 26,000 watercraft across the state.
Safety should remain a top priority when enjoying recreational activities on NPPD’s water resources, and the public is urged to follow all regulations set and enforced by the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission.
Visit CleanDrainDry.org/ for more details on the Clean, Drain, Dry Procedure and OutdoorNebraska.gov/aquatic-invasive-species for information about invasive species in Nebraska. The public is encouraged to report any suspected observations of zebra mussels or other aquatic invasive species to Game and Parks at 402-471-7602 or at [email protected].
Nebraska Game and Parks is offering residents a chance to win prizes simply for getting outside and moving, as part of a challenge honoring America’s 250th birthday.
The Outdoor Nebraska 250-Mile Challenge invites participants to log miles through activities like walking, running, kayaking, horseback riding and more using any fitness app. The goal is to reach 250 miles before the end of the year. Once completed, participants fill out a form on the Nebraska Game and Parks website to become eligible for prizes.
Mike Selman, a regular walker at Zorinsky Lake, said the challenge caught his attention.
“I think it’s great, as long as you put in the time and effort,” Selman said.
Selman said getting outdoors is already a big part of his routine.
“I absolutely love it, I love being outdoors, just the beauty, the nature, the trees, the water,” Selman said.
He said one of his favorite aspects of the challenge is the opportunity to explore Nebraska’s many outdoor spaces.
“Especially here, around Zorinsky, Standing Bear, Flanagan, you got great opportunities and great places to go,” Selman said.
When asked if he planned to submit his miles, Selman did not hesitate.
“I’ll definitely think about it, most definitely,” Selman said.
Between Memorial Day and the end of the year, logging just over 1 mile a day would be enough to reach the 250-mile goal and qualify for prizes.
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We’ll have to wait a bit longer to get into the Cowgirls’ Super Regional.
A rainy night in Lincoln meant the teams only managed to get four outs into the Super between Oklahoma State and Nebraska. The game is tied at 0. The weather delay lasted about two hours before they called it.
The game will resume at 4 p.m. Friday and be televised on ESPN2. They will not play another game Friday, as Game 2 will now take place at 4 p.m. Saturday.
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