Nebraska
Illinois at Nebraska prediction: Odds, best bets, player news, stats for September 21
Second-year HC Matt Rhule has the 22nd-ranked Cornhuskers wrecking shop on both sides of the ball, having outscored their three opponents by a combined score of 102-20. Their 4th-rated defense held their toughest opponent, Colorado, to 260 total yards while ranking 13th in defensive rushing EPA and 17th in passing success rate allowed. The Huskers are running at the 14th-slowest pace in the nation and need to shore up the offensive line miscues, as their 7.5 OL penalties per game is the eighth-highest rate in FBS.
HC Brett Bielema is also riding high at 3-0 with Illinois holding off a spirited charge from Kansas in Week 2 to extract a 23-17 victory over the Jayhawks in spite of a 42% post-game win expectancy. Though the Illini has been running the ball at a Bielema-esque 67.4% rate on standard downs (Avg = 58.4%), their passing game ranks 37th in success rate and 26th in EPA per dropback behind QB Luke Altmyer. The Illini pass defense is holding opponents to a stingy 1.7 net yards per pass attempt (3rd in FBS) with a 7.8% interception rate (4th).
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Game detials and how to watch Illinois at Nebraska Friday Night
o Date: Friday, September 20, 2024
o Time: 8:00 PM EST
o Site: Memorial Stadium
o City: Lincoln, Nebraska
o TV/Streaming: Fox
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Game odds for Illinois at Nebraska – Week 4
The latest odds as of Tuesday evening:
· Moneyline: Nebraska -350, Illinois +260
· Spread: Nebraska -8.5 (-105)
· Over/Under: 42.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
While BetMGM lines this game at Nebraska -8.5, there are signs that this line could creep up to -10, as the market is already showing -9.5 at some books. The Over/Under has dropped a point to 42.5 since the open.
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton) is not expecting points Friday Night.
“Illinois ranks 111th in seconds per play, while Nebraska plays even slower and ranks 121st. In their last game against Kansas’ 17th ranked SP+ offense, Illinois hung on to win 23-17. Nebraska just held Colorado’s high-flying passing offense to a paltry 10 points enroute to a comfortable 18-point victory over the Buffs. Both Kansas and Colorado’s offenses are rated higher than either of these programs, with freshman Dylan Raiola finally facing an upper echelon defense. I think we get an ultra-slow classic Big Ten matchup where points are hard to come by. Accordingly, I’m taking the Under 42.5 game total.”
From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
· Georgia +275 to +325
· Ohio State +375 to +350
· Alabama +1100 to +900
Highest Ticket%
· Ohio State 16.4%
· Georgia 12.0%
· Texas 10.2%
Highest Handle%
· Ohio State 17.1%
· Georgia 15.7%
· Alabama 12.8%
Biggest Liabilities
· Ohio State
· Tennessee
· Alabama
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Quarterback matchup for Illinois vs. Nebraska
o Nebraska: Consensus five-star QB Dylan Raiola had been committed to Georgia throughout the majority of the pre-college courtship process before a late flip to Nebraska threw all his previous plans in a blender. While the still raw Raiola hasn’t had to face a credible Big Ten defense like Illinois yet, he has completed 72.7% of his passes for 666 yards, 8.3 YPA and a 5-to-1 ratio. His excellent 4.3% pressure-to-sack rate is testament to his offensive line that is pitching a 1.5% sack rate (22nd in FBS) and has yet to allow a passing down sack this year.
o Illinois: Illini QB Luke Altmyer is a former four-star Ole Miss recruit who transferred here after Lane Kiffin and his hand selected starting QB Jaxson Dart came to town. Now in his second year as a starter, Altmyer has improved his completion rate from 64.6%-to-69.5% while averaging 8.3 YPA (6.9 LY) with an unblemished 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio (13-to-10 in 2023). So far, he is carrying an 83rd-percentile PFF offensive grade, which is a sharp uptick from last year’s 69.4 rating. Hopefully Altmyer’s improved pocket presence, Illinois is averaging a 3.5% sack rate this year compared to 8.3% in 2023, can allow him to buy time and make plays against a fearsome Nebraska defensive front.
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Player news & recent stats
· Illinois has turned the ball over just one time this year, while their defense has forced eight takeaways. Combined, Illinois is leading the country with a +7 turnover margin through the first three games.
· The Illini are still trying to account for the loss of star IDL Jer’Zhan Newton, as they rank 106th in sacks per dropback, 110th in sacks per pressure and have yet to record a single sack on a blitz down this season.
· Nebraska has drastically boosted their passing game efficiency with the arrival of QB Dylan Raiola, improving the team completion rate from 52% (126th in FBS) to 73%, which is the 17th highest mark in the country.
· NU’s run defense has been merciless this season, ranking 13th in EPA/rush, 10th in stuff rate and 6th in yards per rush. While the Huskers’ pass defense is allowing an elevated 67% completion rate to opponents, those completions resulted in successful plays only 26.5% of the time (17th in FBS).
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– Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
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Illinois head coach Brett Bielema is known for the physical identity of his football teams. This year’s version of the Fighting Illini is no different.
They are only giving up 8.6 points per game so far this season and have proven to be a stingy defensive team. But they are going up against a Nebraska team that has a flashy freshman quarterback and a stable of talented wide receivers to throw the ball to. Illinois’ defense will be facing its largest challenge of the year so far. But so will its offense.
Nebraska has a solid defense this season. The most points the Huksers have given up is to Colorado, who scored just 10 points. The Buffaloes have one of the Big 12’s best quarterbacks in Shedeur Sanders and wide receivers Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr. Despite all those weapons, the Huskers’ defense was more than up to the challenge.
Not only does Illinois have to play against that defense, but they will also be trying to keep up with the Huskers’ offense. Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola is a problem for any defense. The way that he can move around in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield is a defensive nightmare. Once he has danced around for long enough, he can find the open receiver and make any throw on the field.
Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer will have to be at the top of his game on Saturday. So far this season, he has looked sharp. His 647 passing yards and six touchdowns per game are comparable to Raiola’s numbers. His leading receiver, Pat Bryant, has 235 yards and an impressive four early touchdowns on the year.
Despite how good Illinois’ offense has looked so far, they will be facing a new challenge this Saturday. Memorial Stadium will be rocking once again as Big Ten play gets underway. It will likely be the toughest game that either team has played so far this year, and in a matchup this close, home-field advantage can make all the difference.
Altmyer and the Fighting Illini will not just be going against the Huskers’ defense on Saturday. They will also be fighting against the raucous crowd and trying to keep up with Raiola’s potent offense.
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Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.
After the No. 11 USC Trojans return from their bye week, the team plays seven straight weeks of football games before the second bye. A gauntlet for any program, the next seven games for USC will also be the first time the Trojans clash with their new Big Ten opponents.
Can USC Trojans coach Lincoln Riley and his team navigate the rest of the season and remain unscathed?
As of Sept. 16, the Trojans are scheduled to face four ranked opponents for the rest of the season. USC will face No. 10 Penn State, No. 17 Notre Dame, No. 18 Michigan, and No. 22 Nebraska.
The first ranked matchup is on Saturday, Sept. 21, as USC travels to Ann Arbor to face No. 18 Michigan. Although defending national champions, the 2024 Wolverines have struggled at the start of the season. The Wolverines have an ugly loss to No. 1 Texas, and they beat Arkansas State by 10 points.
Should USC leave the Big House with a win, they could set themselves up for an undefeated showdown with No. 10 Penn State on Oct. 12. In between the Michigan and Penn State games, the Trojans are scheduled to face the Wisconsin Badgers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Both Wisconsin and Minnesota are having down years compared to expectations. Minnesota lost 19-17 to North Carolina in week zero, and Wisconsin recently lost to Alabama 42-10 at home. Should the Trojans get past both of those teams, Riley and his team might have a top-10 matchup on their hands.
On paper, the toughest game of the Trojans season will be when the Nittany Lions travel to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. According to the AP Poll, this midseason matchup figures to be the toughest game on USC’s season.
After playing Penn State, USC will fly across the country to face Maryland on Oct. 19. The stretch of seven games will end on a Friday night against Rutgers followed by a road trip to Washington. On Nov. 9, the Trojans will have reached the second bye week of the season.
Should this Trojans team win its first nine games, its resume will feature wins over LSU, Michigan, and Penn State. In the first two games of the season, USC Trojans quarterback Miller Moss has impressed, and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has already improved the defense in his short time with the team.
Already a strong collection of wins, USC has the chance to add another against a surging Nebraska on Nov. 16.
After an impressive 3-0 start under quarterback Dylan Raiola, the Nebraska Cornhuskers have climbed into the AP poll at No. 22. If the Trojans and the Cornhuskers continue to win, the game will assuredly be one of the marquee matchups across the country.
Both Nebraska and Penn State travel to Los Angeles to play the Trojans, giving USC a legitimate chance to host College GameDay. In the final home game at the Coliseum, USC will host the Fighting Irish, currently ranked No. 17 in the week four AP Poll.
A difficult opponent after playing a grueling schedule, Notre Dame has already suffered an upset at home to No. 23 Northern Illinois.
While certainly difficult, this Trojans team has the potential to rack up some impressive wins should they survive the season. However, teams can afford to lose a game and still have a path to the postseason in the expanded playoff system.
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MORE: USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines Official Kickoff Time and TV Broadcast Schedule
For the first time since October 2011, No. 22 Nebraska and No. 24 Illinois find themselves listed in the same Associated Press Top 25 poll. They’ll meet in a Big Ten opener Friday night in Lincoln, Neb., to decide which team gets to stay there.
The Cornhuskers (3-0) are off to their best start since 2016 — their most recent bowl season — while the Illini are 3-0 for the first time since 2011.
After cruising through their respective non-conference schedules, both teams will get a much better picture of their might while they clash in front of Nebraska’s 400th consecutive home sellout.
“To have two big teams ranked on a Friday night game is a little bit unusual,” said Illinois coach Bret Bielema, who has his program in the polls for just the second time in the last 13 years. “It doesn’t happen all the time. To see it play out and be a part of it is awesome. Give a lot of credit to their team and what they’ve accomplished to this point. I told our guys to continue to keep our focus, our mentality, and see where it can go.”
The Huskers have three blowouts under their belt — they led at halftime against UTEP, Colorado and Northern Iowa by a combined score of 79-10 — but head coach Matt Rhule hasn’t been overly impressed yet.
“I think any time you don’t punt in the game, you feel pretty good,” Rhule said. “So I felt pretty good about what we did Saturday offensively (against Northern Iowa). But that was all preseason to me. Now the season starts. We’ll find out where we are. This will be such a different challenge playing against these guys.”
The Illini enter Friday’s game tied for second nationally in turnover margin (+8) and tied for fifth in turnovers forced (9). Defensive back Xavier Scott is one of four FBS players with at least 3 interceptions through three games, and he has forced four turnovers overall.
But Scott and company haven’t faced a passer like Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola. Even on the rare occasions when the pass rush has forced him to improvise, the five-star freshman has appeared unflappable while completing 73.8 percent of his passes for 670 yards, five touchdowns and just one interception. “He brings a different element immediately,” Bielema said. “He’s a very talented young man that’s got a great deep ball throw. They maximize him pretty well. There’s some things you can literally see him get better on every series — just very impressive to see.”
Rhule seems eager to find out how Raiola will handle an Illinois group that ranks 12th nationally in pass efficiency defense (an 87.98 rating versus Raiola’s 162.22).
“They’ve altered a lot of what they’re doing,” said Rhule, noting how Illinois second-year defensive coordinator Aaron Henry has been using more disguises this season. “They’ll show man and play Cover 2. They’ll show man and play zone. With a young quarterback, he’s got to recognize because they don’t show it to you. He’s got to recognize zone on the snap. And they’re taking the ball away at a high level.”
On the flip side, Bielema wants to see his rushing attack be more reliable. The Illini’s quartet of backs have been satisfactory (153.3 yards per game), but Illinois hasn’t faced anything like the Huskers’ defense, which surrenders just 2.5 yards per carry and 70.3 rushing yards per game.
“If we’re going to win in the Big Ten, we’re going to have to run the ball in certain situations,” Bielema said. “I think the greatest definition of a team is a team that can run the ball effectively when they want to run it against good competition.”
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