Gov. Jim Pillen is talking about a special session to change how Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded, to ensure that Donald Trump wins all our state’s electoral votes. However, this move is not the slam dunk for Trump that Gov. Pillen thinks it is. It would not only make our state less democratic, but it also may very well backfire, making Nebraska the state that delivers the election to President Joe Biden.
As Nebraskans well know, most states have a winner-take-all system. But we boast a split-vote system that divides our electoral votes based on who wins each of the three congressional districts, plus two for the candidate who wins the state. Our split vote system is a trademark of Nebraska’s democratic process, allowing voters in each of our diverse congressional districts to make their voices heard in our presidential election.
John McCollister
But in a move to secure all five of the state’s electoral votes for Trump, Pillen and Republican allies are working to move Nebraska to a winner-take-all system.
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Nebraska’s legislative session ended on April 18, but the governor is weighing whether to convene a special session “on extraordinary circumstances” to force the Legislature to change the electoral system ahead of the November election. If successful, the bill would theoretically take the swing 2nd Congressional District — which Biden carried in 2020 — out of play and give Republicans a stranglehold on the state’s five electoral votes.
But this plan is almost sure to backfire. If a bill for a winner-take-all system does pass the Legislature, opponents will almost certainly organize a ballot initiative to undo it.
Nebraska has a “people’s right to referendum” law, which allows voters to challenge a bill before it becomes law through a petition process. Opponents could easily collect the 125,000 signatures required for the petition and, once they do, Pillen’s move to a winner-take-all system would be put on hold until after November’s general election — and halted altogether if a majority of voters support the referendum.
A ballot initiative also would help Democrats in the 2nd District, a true swing district that both Democrats and Republicans can win. Democrats won it in 2008 and 2020, but lost it every other presidential election.
If there is a ballot initiative, however, Democrats will pour additional time and resources into that district to ensure that referendum gets on the ballot and their voters turn out in support. Assuming they’re successful, which they are likely to be, the ballot initiative could serve as an additional motivating issue for voters who rightly don’t like the idea of Trump changing the rules and infringing on our state’s democracy for his own benefit.
The Omaha-based 2nd District could be the deciding electoral vote this year. After the 2020 census, the electoral count changed. Democrats can no longer rely solely on the “Blue Wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to win the presidency. If they win just those states, plus only the states they are currently favored to win, then they need the 2nd District to get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes.
In trying to avoid a Biden victory, Pillen may motivate Democrats to turn out in the 2nd District — ensuring that Nebraska is the decisive vote in re-electing the president. Republicans in Nebraska would be smart not to follow his lead.
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John McCollister of Omaha is a former state senator.
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