In an election year where the Senate map is objectively advantageous to Republicans, Texas and Florida have been seen as the two red states where a Republican seat could maybe flip if everything broke just right for Democrats. 

Then in December, a poll from Nebraska showed a steamfitter and industrial mechanic, Dan Osborn, was beating incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer by 2 points, 40-38 percent. In early May, Osborn’s campaign released a new poll from Public Policy Polling that had him down four points (37-33 percent with 30 percent undecided).

While some political watchers were skeptical of the early polling, it has directed attention to Nebraska. In June, for instance, Osborn received the endorsement of the United Auto Workers and was even promoted on social media by Julia Louis Dreyfus. 

As eyes turned to Cornhusker State, a question began to emerge: Could Osborn, who was not just straying away from a typical Senate campaign playbook — but throwing it out — beat an incumbent Republican senator in a state that is widely seen as being ruby red? And could the Nebraska Senate race help Democrats maintain slim control of the Senate?

With the possibility for an upset in the air, both sides have pushed data making their respective cases. In mid-July, Fischer released a poll showing her up 26 points. A week later, Osborn’s camp highlighted a poll that showed him tied with Fischer at 42 percent. 

Fundraising has shown a similarly mixed narrative. Osborn outraised Fischer in the second quarter ($1 million to $679,000), while Fischer’s over $3 million in cash on hand swamps his $650,000.  

Osborn is no stranger to receiving national and local coverage. In 2021, he led the Kellogg’s Strike, which resulted in a new labor contract with wages increases and enhanced benefits. After he announced his run for Senate, he spent the first eight months of his campaign working 50 hours a week, continuing his apprenticeship, all while still having to go to school and pass tests. 

Where handfuls of candidates running to be reelected or elected to the Senate can talk about the intricacies of courtrooms and boardrooms, Osborn is the only one simultaneously knocking doors while getting his EPA 608 license, which allows him to handle and purchase refrigerant.

But, what really sets his race apart is not just who he is, but how he is running. Osborn has positioned himself as an Independent. Or, as they say in Nebraska, nonpartisan. 

Osborn is far from the first Senate candidate to run as Independent. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Angus King of Maine have both run and won as such. In 2022, Evan McMullin ran as an Independent (and lost the race) for a Senate seat in Utah.

But, where McMullin ultimately accepted the Utah Democratic Party’s nomination, Osborn has disavowed the endorsements of any political parties or politicians. Where Sanders and King caucus with the Democrats, Osborn has made no such commitment. 

In May, his campaign sent out a press release announcing this distinction. 

“Probably no political campaign has ever done this but we want to put people above politicians, parties and profits,” Osborn was quoted as saying in the release. “Whether you are Republican, Independent, Libertarian, Democrat, I don’t care. I welcome all to join me to change Washington.”

This decision was met by swift rebuke from the Nebraska Democratic Party, who had planned to endorse him, and said they were now looking for write-in candidates. 

Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb said they have endorsed 11 Independent candidates this cycle, including two running for the legislature.

“We embrace Independents and have a now-long history of embracing Independents and supporting Independents,” Kleeb tells Rolling Stone. “I mean obviously our Party respects when a candidate changes their mind on an endorsement, but having Dan lead the Party on for months, telling us how critical the Democratic Party endorsement and infrastructure was for him winning the seat, and then him essentially saying, ‘No,’ once he knew the deadline was past for when we could have a candidate on the ballot, has left obviously a lot of Democrats in the state questioning the integrity of his campaign.”

Osborn disputed that characterization. “No one was led on,” he says. “I’ve been clear that I was not going to take the endorsement of any one party.”

A source close to the Osborn campaign points out that in a New York Times article about his candidacy in early March, Osborn said he was not sure he wanted the Democratic endorsement. 

To add further political complexity to the already atypical dynamics of this race, Nebraska’s other Senate seat is also up this year in a special election — the first time both seats have both been on the ballot concurrently since 1954. In that race, the Nebraska Democratic Party does have a candidate, Preston Love Jr., who is challenging former Gov. and current Sen. Pete Ricketts, who secured that seat through appointment in 2023.

Osborn attributes his path to his candidacy with his ultimate decision to establish and maintain political independence. Members of the railroad unions who noticed his leadership in the Kellogg’s Strike recruited him to run, not a political party. 

One of those people was Mike Helmink, a railroad employee and labor leader who himself started an exploratory committee to run for Fischer’s seat before ending it after being denied leave from work. Helmink — who is the treasurer for Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety which has endorsed Osborn — thinks the nonpartisan path is one that could lead to a victory.  

“There’s kind of a contrarian vibe to politics in the state,” Helmink says. “The Independents, or nonpartisans, are becoming a larger and larger group. We’ve got a large group of people that feel like their voice isn’t being heard.”

Helmink argues the Democratic message is not working outside of the cities of Lincoln and Omaha. The last Democrat to win statewide was former Sen. Ben Nelson in 2008.

“The only problem with Dan is he’s from Omaha,” Helmink says, laughing. “But, you know, at least he’s not one of the rich elite folks from Omaha. That helps. He works for a living. That definitely sells. So, yeah, we are highly optimistic we can replace Deb Fischer with Dan Osborn.” 

While not having the money or infrastructure of a major party has its disadvantages, Osborn sees it as a strength. “The advantage is, being grassroots I’m not beholden to any party and I’m not beholden to special interests,” he says. “So nobody can tell this campaign how to think, what it is we should be doing, and the message that we should be portraying.”

Osborn doesn’t find it surprising that the race is close. Rather, he sees the explanation as pretty simple. “I think it’s the fact that people are frustrated, you know, with the parties catering to their extremes,” he says. “There’s around 300,000 registered nonpartisan voters in Nebraska. It’s the fastest growing demographic for registering voters.”

Nationally, the percentage of Independent voters is also at a high. Despite independents being a much larger voting bloc than either party, there are only four Independent senators currently in Congress: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, in addition to Sanders and King — and all four Caucus with Democrats. Sinema and Manchin are not running for reelection in 2024.

With that current reality in mind, Osborn says voters are always questioning who he plans to support for president (he has not committed to any of the candidates) and, if elected, which party he would caucus with. 

“I think what they’re looking for when they ask that is ‘Oh, is he a Democrat? Or is he a Republican?’,” Osborn explains, saying many people think deep down you have to be one or the other. “Well, I’m gonna kinda call BS on that because I feel like I truly am an Independent. I’m for working people.”  

Osborn said he sees his independence as something Nebraska voters should see not as a liability, but rather as a source of power for them and their state. “I’m an Independent and when I get to the United States Senate, I kind of want to be a maverick,” he says. “Why can’t I create an Osborn caucus? Or an Independent caucus? Especially if I’m the 51st swing vote in the United States Senate. People are gonna have to work with me.” 

Before that can happen, he has his work cut out for him. Nebraska has a Republican governor and fully Republican congressional delegation. In 2020, former President Trump secured over 58 percent of the state’s popular vote. 

Osborn’s campaign pushes back on the idea that Nebraska is irreversibly ruby red, highlighting the uniqueness of the state’s political system with its unicameral legislature that is technically bipartisan. Nebraska currently awards two Electoral College votes for the winner of the statewide popular vote, and one electoral vote for the winner of each congressional district (which delivered former President Trump four votes total, and President Joe Biden one vote in 2020.)

Osborn said he believes Nebraska’s identity of approaching the political system with its own individualized frame is what could allow him to be the first Independent U.S. senator from the state since George Norris won as one in 1936.  

His platform certainly reflects that. As a union president and worker whose hand was severely injured on the job, it is fittingly pro-labor and pro-workers’ rights. Otherwise, it doesn’t fit into neat boxes during this hyperpolarized political moment in the country. Osborn actively calls for both the legalization of cannabis, and for the securing of the border. He supports both abortion rights and the Second Amendment — saying both are areas where he feels the government should not overreach. 

Osborn says he does not see any of his stances as being at odds with each other, asserting that this range and nuance is common among the voters he meets on the trail, and when he knocks their doors.

This independence from existing parties and their established platforms, he argues, is the reason he can build the coalition of Nebraska voters necessary to win.