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A Malawi-to-Nebraska pipeline changes lives. It also leaves students broke and stranded, they say.

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A Malawi-to-Nebraska pipeline changes lives. It also leaves students broke and stranded, they say.


NORFOLK, Neb. (Flatwater Free Press) – The sisters were kicked out of Wayne State College a month into the semester because they had no money to pay tuition, room and board.

Their friends put in a desperate call to Julie Robinson, a Norfolk resident they knew they could turn to for help. When Robinson arrived, she found two sisters unable to afford bedsheets, blankets, shampoo or soap. It was February in Nebraska. The teenagers had no hats, gloves or boots.

They each had a backpack of clothing, everything they had carried on the 9,000-mile journey from Malawi to Nebraska to attend college.

These sisters arrived in Nebraska thinking they would receive scholarships, that their room and board would be free. That’s what they say they’d been promised by a Nebraskan who founded their Malawian high school.

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But that belief crashed into reality the moment Joe Mtika dropped them off at Wayne State, Robinson said. The college wasn’t expecting them. Wayne State had no idea who they were.

“We don’t know what you guys are talking about,” a Wayne State official told the sisters, one said at a recent meeting.

The sisters are two of about 70 students who have come to the United States – most to Nebraska – after graduating from Norfolk Schools in Malawi, a nonprofit and private school advertising itself as “a potential gateway to American universities.”

Founded by Mtika, a Norfolk resident and Malawi native, the nonprofit has brought in donations from Norfolk churches and nonprofits. The mayors of Norfolk and Blantyre, Malawi, have exchanged keys to their cities. In 2017, Mtika was runner-up for Norfolk Person of the Year.

But underneath its glittering promise of an American education, Norfolk Schools in Malawi feels like a bait and switch, 13 former students, Northeast Community College administrators, parents and host parents told the Flatwater Free Press.

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Students come here believing that they’ll be receiving scholarships, financial assistance, housing, they said, only to arrive and find that assistance spotty at best. Host parents describe believing that they will be housing a few students for a few weeks, only to house many more students for years. Northeast Community College administrators say they have changed policies, and largely cut off contact with Mtika, because of inaccurate financial documents they received from Malawian students.

They all say that Mtika is often unreachable when they need him most.

Mtika and his allies acknowledge misunderstandings between the program’s director and the students, but argue that studying in America can and does change the Malawian teenagers’ lives, they say. Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world, and an American college education is an opportunity almost any Malawian student would kill for, Mtika said in an interview.

In interviews, he also described a nonprofit that’s spiraling out of his control, as the students from eastern Africa land in Nebraska without his prior knowledge, expecting things he says he never promised. At various points, Mtika placed blame on Malawian parents, the U.S. Embassy in Malawi and Northeast Community College for exacerbating these struggles.

It’s unclear how much money the nonprofit has, where it spends it or who is providing oversight. The nonprofit files minimal information with the IRS, as is legal for very small nonprofits.

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The four members of the nonprofit’s board didn’t respond to interview requests. Three board members have recently resigned; the board’s vice chair quit last week.

At a tense February meeting between board members and students – a recording of which was shared with the Flatwater Free Press – board members seemed confused and surprised at the stories students were sharing with them.

Students and host parents asked the board and Mtika the same question: When people donate to the nonprofit, where does that money go?

“You are changing lives,” one student can be heard telling Mtika. “But also, when we get here, we’re just like, I think I should have just stayed home … As much as you’re grateful to be here, sometimes it’s just so overwhelming.”

***

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Frustration, building for years, boiled over by February, prompting several former host parents to call a meeting at a local church.

There, roughly 45 Malawi students, Northeast Community College staff members and former host parents unloaded grievances onto the nonprofit’s three Norfolk-based board members and Mtika, the nonprofit’s founder and CEO.

Students and host parents described how difficult it is to contact Mtika, who they said is known for ignoring calls when students need help.

Students told the board that their parents didn’t believe them when they called home and told them they had no scholarships and nowhere to live.

They wondered what happened to donations the nonprofit received.

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Students repeated the same scenario: In Malawi, they were promised financial support once they reached Nebraska. Many of these promises were made by Mtika himself, they said.

“I thought I was going to have a 100% scholarship,” one told the board.

“Where did that impression come from?” asked Scott Dodson, board vice president. Dodson resigned last week.

“Dr. Joe,” she replied.

“I didn’t tell you 100% scholarship,” Mtika said. “You can come to the United States, and find ways of raising money, working on campus.”

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For 90 minutes, students and adults who helped them described their financial struggles after landing in Nebraska.

Many students find themselves crammed into apartments. Six students living in an apartment meant for three, said Pauline Mphwiyo, a Malawian student who graduated from Wayne State in 2023 – and more new students texting, asking for a place to live.

Former host parent Nancy Praeuner cosigned an apartment for Malawi students. This winter, she learned at least four girls, newly arrived, were living in the one-bedroom unit.

They were evicted when they couldn’t make rent, which Praeuner paid.

When older students know there’s a new group arriving from Malawi, they pick up work shifts to stockpile food and cash, said Gina Krysl, director of student care and outreach at Northeast Community College, during the meeting. They give up their beds and sleep on couches when new students have nowhere else to go.

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Some are as young as 16.

“There’s not one student that hasn’t told me this exact same story,” Krysl said. “And I’ve met a lot of students from Malawi.”

College staff have seen students copy textbooks to share. They give them college emergency funds when possible, point students to the campus food pantry and connect them with local churches.

College employees have paid for books and health insurance and donated winter coats and boots, Krysl said during the meeting.

Praeuner and a friend pooled money to pay for a student’s tuition, after Mtika said the student would likely be sent back to Malawi if they didn’t pay. Members of her church later gathered money to reimburse her.

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She and her husband have bought students used computers, used cars and socks and underwear when they arrived from Malawi.

Robinson, who helped the two girls move out of the Wayne State dorms, has given students rides to school and Walmart. She estimates that she’s paid eight to 10 semesters’ worth of tuition for different students since 2018; and a year’s worth of rent.

Robinson has had students approach her asking for help paying for tuition. She’s offered to fly them home instead. Many of them haven’t seen their families in years, Robinson said.

“I said, it would probably cost me less to buy you plane tickets home, do you want to go home?” she said. “They don’t want to go home. (Mtika) told their parents that they were going to come here and get this education and have this opportunity that no one else got. And if they go home right now, they fail.”

The February meeting ended with no resolution. But Mtika said in an interview that he plans to start having parents sign documents clearly laying out financial expectations, to avoid any future misunderstandings.

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“I’m not saying that they’re lying,” Mtika later said in an interview. “I’m just saying, there is a disconnect somewhere.”

***

In 2018, Norfolk Mayor Josh Moenning and two dozen Norfolk residents traveled the 9,000 miles to Blantyre, Malawi, to solidify the burgeoning relationship – and the Malawi-to-Nebraska college pipeline – between the two cities.

There, they attended the graduation of a dozen Norfolk Schools in Malawi students – teens thrilled at the prospect of an American college education.

Michael Chipps, then president of Northeast Community College, awarded each student a $500 scholarship should they choose to attend that community college.

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These dozen students were the only students to receive an official scholarship through the nonprofit, Mtika said.

But students told the Flatwater Free Press that Mtika has continually dangled the idea of scholarships, sponsorships and host families paying their way – crucial, since many of their Malawian families have little money or familiarity with U.S. higher education.

One student, who feared being named in this article, said everything seemed formalized, like Mtika had everything mapped out.

They’d live with a host family for the nine months of the school year. After that, they’d be expected to live on their own, she said.

“Maybe they’ll take a liking to you, and they’ll decide that they want to sponsor you” and pay your tuition the next year, she remembers Mtika telling them.

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“It sounds crazy, doesn’t it?” she said six years later. “None of us knew who Joe really was as a person. We were all just like, ‘Oh, this man from America wants to give us the opportunity to study in America!’”

Many residents and Norfolk institutions have shared that enthusiasm. Norfolk Public Schools shared curriculum, older computers, textbooks and school blueprints with the school in Malawi.

The Norfolk-based nonprofit Orphan Grain Train started sending much-needed shipping containers of food and supplies to Malawi. Cornhusker Auto, a Norfolk car dealership, donated used vans.

“God has given me this vision to give back to the country where I came from,” Mtika said.

But, out of the public eye, problems quickly began to mount as far back as 2018 for the Malawian students and Norfolk-area residents who had agreed to host them.

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Two volunteer host families agreed to sponsor two or three students each. Instead, 11 students showed up in Nebraska. Five boys piled into one host family home, five girls in another, and a lone girl with a third host family.

In 2019, Mtika asked Praeuner if she could host two students for a few weeks.

Five students, all without housing, soon showed up at her home.

“Within a month, I realized they weren’t going anywhere,” Praeuner said. “We just had no more contact with Joe. If we kept calling him, it was, ‘we can’t find anywhere else for them to stay.’”

When the pandemic hit in 2020, a Malawian student living in the dorms was on the verge of being homeless. Praeuner took her in, too.

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Praeuner ended up housing three students for three years.

“I’m not a type that’s going to put somebody on the street,” Praeuner said. “I love them to pieces. I have nothing bad to say about the Malawi kids … a year later, I felt bad and took another kid in.”

It’s this network of Norfolkians – not the nonprofit – who keep helping students and enabling the cycle to continue, Robinson said.

“I’m not going to stop helping them, because they’re here,” Robinson said. “But we help them, and so (Mtika) thinks, ‘well somebody’s going to step up and do it.’ So he just keeps, in my opinion, dumping them.”

***

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In an interview, Mtika said that sometimes what he says about the reality of a college education in Nebraska, and what Malawian parents and students think they hear, are two different things.

“The moment you mention ‘scholarship’ in Malawi, they believe it’s a full scholarship,” he said. “They don’t have to do anything, they don’t have to pay for it. The only thing they have to do is present themselves.”

Only the first few groups of students were promised housing, Mtika said. Only one group received a small scholarship. But the misconception that students would get a full ride persists, he said, perpetuated by Malawian news reports.

“In their reporting, they put that the students are going to the United States ‘on scholarship,’” Mtika said. “We try to tell them, this is not a scholarship. These students are coming to America and they are expected to work and study.”

The message to students, he said: “We tell them that you are on your own.”

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Four Malawian parents – all put in contact with the Flatwater Free Press by Mtika – reiterated this, saying they were aware they’d be paying tuition. They defended the program for giving their children access to college.

“To say parents or guardians did not know that they have to pay for the first year is a big lie,” said Ezekiel Kashisa, whose son is at Central Community College in Columbus.

Mtika said he does tell students that they could qualify for college scholarships, and should apply with the individual schools.

In a 2019 email to Malawi graduates and parents, Mtika promoted a scholarship opportunity from Wayne State College this way:

“We are negotiating a better scholarship deal with Wayne State College than with Northeast Community College,” he wrote. “We would like your student to have a better scholarship so that you as parents pay the least amount of money from your pocket. We want for you to not have to pay anything from your pocket if we can avoid it.”

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A representative from Wayne State said the school doesn’t negotiate scholarships.

“We offer what we offer,” said Kevin Halle, vice president of enrollment management.

The school in Malawi is funded mainly through tuition and small grants, Mtika said.

In 2021, the school paid for its computer lab with a $25,000 grant from the Wyoming-based Socrates Foundation.

In 2022, the Norfolk Area United Way awarded Norfolk Schools in Malawi $10,000 to go to Malawian students working and studying in northeast Nebraska. That money went toward things like furniture, cars, tuition and books for students in Norfolk, Dodson said during the board’s February meeting with students.

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Last fall, United Way once again awarded the nonprofit a $10,000 grant. But they have yet to disburse the money, United Way board member Troy Uhlir said. It won’t be disbursed until the Norfolk Schools in Malawi board gives United Way more information.

“They do seem to be a little disorganized,” Uhlir said. “We have had some students come to us, and we just wanted some clarification … That money has to go to students that are working and going to school in Northeast Nebraska.”

Last year, Norfolk Schools in Malawi was awarded a $60,000 grant from an Alabama foundation. The money isn’t meant for the students in Nebraska, Mtika said. It will instead be used for a new vertical farming project in Malawi.

***

As recently as this semester, Malawian students continue to arrive at the Norfolk-based Northeast Community College believing, mistakenly, that their tuition and housing are already paid, said Pam Saalfeld, the school’s director of international programs. The school currently has 36 Malawian students enrolled, she said.

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“None of that information they were given, the misleading information, came from the college or our office,” Saalfeld said. “If they’re being misled from Norfolk Schools in Malawi, we can’t catch that until it’s actually happened.”

To attend college in the United States, international students are required to prove to the U.S. Embassy and the college that they, their families or an outside sponsor are financially able to pay for a year of college and living expenses.

“It’s not on Norfolk Schools in Malawi,” Mtika said. “It’s the college’s responsibility to have vetted those students financially.”

In 2019, Northeast Community College tightened its financial requirements for all international students. Students must now show bank statements and a certified letter from the bank verifying accounts. Businesses can no longer be listed as sponsors, and students must provide proof of housing.

“That’s a direct result of misleading documents that occurred from Norfolk Schools in Malawi several years ago,” Saalfeld said.

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Mtika said he “(doesn’t) deal with that part.”

Mtika himself agrees the Malawi-to-Nebraska pathway he built in 2017 is spiraling out of control, he said during an interview. Students who never graduated from Norfolk Schools in Malawi are ending up at the community college.

He blamed U.S. officials in Malawi, who he believes are rubber-stamping student visas.

He also blamed Northeast leaders for not verifying students with his school directly.

Communication was “more streamlined” under Chipps, the college’s former president, Mtika said.

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“I don’t know what he means by streamlined, except that he got away with more stuff,” said Saalfeld. “I don’t have any communication with Joe Mtika. We don’t work with him if we can possibly help it. The relationship is no longer.”

It’s crucial to keep in mind that being able to attend an American college can change the life of a Malawian teenager, Mtika said. Malawi has a population of 20.4 million people, competing for spots in the country’s roughly 30 colleges.

“Most of the students that aren’t able to come here, they would kill to have the opportunity these students have,” Mtika said.

The students and many Norfolk host parents agree that there’s ample value in an American college education.

But parents – even Malawian parents that Mtika encouraged to speak to the Flatwater Free Press and defend his nonprofit – say that their children have ended up stranded in the United States.

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Florah Gwalla, one such Malawian mother, said Mtika told her younger son that he would live with a host family, and that family would help pay for his tuition.

He landed in Nebraska in January 2020 to find out there was no host family, she said.

Gwalla tried paying for his college from Malawi, a financial burden she said emptied her bank account. Her son tried to save money by transferring from Wayne State to Northeast Community College after a semester.

It didn’t work. Unable to pay, he quit school and moved out-of-state with a family friend.

The whole time, the Malawian mother said, Mtika was absent.

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“This man is not picking up our calls. I was upset,” Gwalla said. “I couldn’t even manage to send (my son) back. To go there and get stranded, it’s not good at all.”

The Flatwater Free Press is Nebraska’s first independent, nonprofit newsroom focused on investigations and feature stories that matter.

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Donovan Jones Urges Huskers to use Bowl Prep to Set the Tone for Nebraska’s Future

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Donovan Jones Urges Huskers to use Bowl Prep to Set the Tone for Nebraska’s Future


Nebraska football has entered a three-week runway of bowl preparation, and for one of the youngest rosters in the country, it’s a critical window for growth.

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Every rep matters, and this month offers the team a chance to reset and respond after a discouraging close to the regular season.

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For redshirt freshman cornerback Donovan Jones, it’s a second go-around with bowl prep, but the stakes feel different now. A year removed from using this same stretch to make his own jump, Jones enters December 2025 with starting experience and a much deeper understanding of what these practices can mean for younger players. Meeting with the media earlier this week, he broke down the progress he’s made in his expanded role and outlined what still needs to improve heading into 2026.

With that in mind, here’s everything the up-and-coming cornerback had to say during his time at the mic.

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Donovan Jones totaled 51 tackles, ranking fifth on the team in 2025. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

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For Jones, bowl preparation has already proven to be more than just extra practice time. After redshirting in 2024, the weeks between the regular season and the bowl game became a turning point in his development, offering a volume of reps that simply weren’t available once the season was underway. With a single game to prepare for and a sharper focus on individual growth, that stretch provided Jones a runway to refine his skills and build confidence across multiple roles in the secondary.

“I’ve told a couple of the younger corners, I was playing both safety and corner during the bowl prep, just getting a whole bunch of reps. And that’s where I made my little jump. And then obviously when I got put in the bowl game, it showed,” Jones said. The versatility he gained during that stretch allowed him to transition more comfortably when his number was called. And 12 months later, Jones has already started 10 games in his collegiate career.

Now, on the other side of that experience, the Omaha native understands the value of the process better than most. Rather than viewing bowl prep as additional work, he sees it as an extension of the season itself and one that younger players can take advantage of, if willing. With a starting role already secured this fall, Jones is approaching this go-around with purpose, hoping the same formula that sparked his initial jump can serve as a springboard towards even more growth in 2026.

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Donovan Jones played in four regular season games and the Pinstripe Bowl in 2024 before carving out a starting role in 2025. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

While looking forward to his team’s next test, Jones didn’t shy away from addressing Nebraska’s late-season struggles, pointing directly to a lack of physicality as the defining issue in the losses to Penn State and Iowa. For the Huskers, the breakdown wasn’t necessarily schematic. The soon-to-be sophomore said it was about tone. When Nebraska failed to control the line of scrimmage, the results quickly followed.

“We were just getting beat physically. That’s just not how we can be at Nebraska,” Jones said. “We need to be the one beating on people. We need to be the most violent team in the country. We didn’t do that those last two games, and it showed.” The blunt assessment reflects a growing maturity within the underclassmen and a player learning what the standard must look like on a weekly basis.

That mindset has carried into bowl preparation, where physicality has become a focal point rather than an afterthought. From Jones’ words, practices have emphasized a sustained effort from everyone on the field. For a defense trying to find its identity under new leadership, the lessons from November now serve as fuel, reinforcing what Nebraska must become if it expects to take the next step in 2026.

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Donovan Jones finished with four pass break ups and one interception in 2025. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

As Nebraska prepares to face Utah, Jones views the bowl game as a measuring stick for how much the team will grow over the next month. With a physical opponent on deck and a national stage awaiting in Las Vegas, the opportunity to respond comes now. For the Blackshirts able to return next fall, it’s a chance to apply the lessons learned late in the season and show tangible growth before turning the page.

For Jones specifically, bowl prep represents another milestone in his development. A year ago, extra reps helped kickstart his rise. Now, with a full season of starting experience behind him, he’s entering this stretch with clearer expectations of what it takes to play at a high level in the Big Ten. The focus is no longer on earning opportunities, but maximizing them.

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That progression mirrors Nebraska’s trajectory as a program. With a young roster, new leadership across the staff, and an offseason ahead filled with competition, moments like these carry added weight. How the Huskers finish will help shape the foundation for 2026. And for players like Jones, the bowl game serves as both a test and a preview of what’s to come.


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Nebraska’s Linebacker Dasan McCullough Wants to Take Lessons Learned to NFL

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Nebraska’s Linebacker Dasan McCullough Wants to Take Lessons Learned to NFL


Nebraska senior linebacker Dasan McCullough declared for the NFL Draft earlier this week. He made the surprising decision to play in the Huskers’ bowl game against Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

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Many times, players will opt out of bowl games to not risk injury.

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McCullough has a different approach. He is attacking the bowl-preparation practices as a training ground for his hoped-for NFL career.

And, he has a more heartfelt reason to play. His dad can watch him play.

“I know it’s [playing in Las Vegas] huge for all of the guys,” McCullough said at a news conference Friday. “It’s even bigger for me being back home so my dad can see my final game. It’s huge for me.

“I was really going to play regardless, but I was just waiting to see who we played against. I think Utah is a great opportunity and a top-15 team, so I’m excited.”

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Bowl practices

The Huskers (7-5)  are busy preparing to play the 10-2 Utes. Nebraska, with a victory, can finish with a better record than last year’s 7-6 mark. After a disappointing, up-and-down season, that should be strong motivation for the Huskers.

“I’m treating them [bowl practices] like I’m getting ready for the league [NFL], as I am,” said McCullough a 6-foot-5, 235-pounder from Kansas City.

“I’m working on my technique every day. I’m still improving on stuff I got to improve on. And at the end of the day, we still got to end this season on our terms. We feel like we didn’t do that with Iowa and this is a great second opportunity.”

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McCullough said he enjoys working with interim defensive coordinator Phil Snow, who replaced John Butler, who was fired after the Iowa game.

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“It’s been pretty cool, actually,” McCullough said. “You know, Snow’s already been really involved with our defense, so it hasn’t been like something like crazy, but he’s just more vocal now. But we all love him.”

Nebraska assistant coach Mike Ekeler crosses arms with linebacker Marques Watson-Trent (33) during warmups before Akron game. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images
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Head coach Matt Rhule, who comes from a defensive background, also has been involved with defensive drills. So has special teams coordinator Mike Ekeler.

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“Yeah, he’s been coaching with me pretty directly and that’s been pretty cool honestly because I’ve known coach Eckler since I was 10 or 11 when he was at Indiana,” McCullough said.

“So, it’s been pretty cool for us just kind of been going through this together. We’ve definitely been having our smiles out there.

“I’d definitely say coach Rhule, I guess as a whole, has the whole D-line very amped up every day. I mean, if you could see it now it looks crazy out there the way the guys are moving around and playing.

“So, it’s definitely that juice that they both brought. Coach Eck as well. He definitely brings a lot of juice.”

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McCullough’s season

McCullough played in 10 games this season, starting seven. He missed a game due to injury. He has 21 tackles, five tackles for loss, two sacks and one pass breakup. He is tied for the Huskers’ lead in sacks and is third in tackles for loss. He was a media choice as an honorable mention All-Big Ten player.

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Nebraska linebacker Dasan McCullough is tied for team lead with two sacks. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

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He was asked what happened in the final two games of the season, blowout losses against Penn State and Iowa.

“Just execution,” he said. “That’s all I can really say. Guys not executing right. We got to be more on point with our jobs.”

Nebraska is McCullough’s third school. He started at Indiana and played one season there. He transferred to Oklahoma and played two seasons with the Sooners. He was at Nebraska for one season.

Now, he hopes to play in the league, “on Sundays” as they say.

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“I think I showed that I’m really relentless on all levels of the game,” McCullough said. “I give outstanding effort.

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“I’m very well at getting off the ball and bending and rushing the passer. I could bring a lot as a stack-backer as well. So, I feel like my versatility is second to none, seriously.”

He was asked what he learned at Nebraska to prepare him for the NFL.

“A lot. Just taught me a lot of discipline, a lot of technique things, too, from a football perspective that coach [Phil] Simpson [assistant coach-outside linebackers] taught me along with coach Rhule that I’ll be taking to the next level,” McCullough said.

“They’ve redefined a lot of my technique as an edge. So, just taking that to the next level and, you  know, there’s a little something I learned from all three schools that I feel like are going to help me be complete.”

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Portal time

It’s December, so players are exploring the possibility of entering the transfer portal. Since McCullough has transferred twice, other players seek his advice.

“It’s really different now,” McCullough said. “I mean, there’s still a lot of guys who transfer for really good reasons.

“Obviously, as you guys know, when guys hit the portal the main thing now is the money. It’s how much money they can get and stuff like that. But more importantly it’s going somewhere where you have an opportunity to start and play.

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“So I guess that’s kind of how I’ve been kind of trying to help the guys. They asked me a lot of questions about the portal since I’ve been through it and I just tell them the same thing.

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“If you guys are looking for a perfect location, you’re not going to find one. There’s nowhere, there’s no perfect university out there. That’s why every school has guys enter the portal. It’s about situations for you.

“So I tell the guys that all the time. Definitely don’t make your decisions just based off money. You need to go somewhere where you’ll actually perform and play.

“Yeah, I transferred a lot, but I also played a lot at all three of those places. So, I was just kind of telling the guys that, to have the right mindset if they’re going to make that decision.”

And about those three transfers?

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“I think I made the three perfect decisions,” McCullough said. “I think they all fell in line for an exact reason. So, I have no regrets about anything.”


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ESPN’s Analytics Reveal Strong Prediction in Illinois vs. Nebraska Matchup

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ESPN’s Analytics Reveal Strong Prediction in Illinois vs. Nebraska Matchup


On Saturday afternoon (3 p.m. CT, Peacock), No. 13 Illinois (8-2, 1-0 Big Ten) will host No. 23 Nebraska (10-0, 1-0 Big Ten) in Champaign for an early-season ranked-on-ranked Big Ten showdown.

The Cornhuskers made their season debut in the AP poll this Monday. Two days later, they dismantled – by 30 points – a Wisconsin club that entered the season ranked in the top 25, knocking off the Badgers 90-60 in Lincoln.

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ESPN’s matchup predictor makes its pick for Illinois-Nebraska

Nov 29, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg watches from the sideline during the first half against the South Carolina Upstate Spartans at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Yet on Saturday, according to ESPN’s analytics, the odds are not at all in Nebraska’s favor. The matchup predictor gives Illinois a 77.5 percent chance of staving off the visitors this weekend.

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And it makes sense for two key reasons: 1) Home-court advantage. Playing at home, especially in Big Ten action, already gives any team a massive leg up. For example, the Illini, despite losing 14 conference games over the past two seasons, have just five league losses on their home floor during that stretch.

2) Illinois is really good.

The AP poll doesn’t always reflect reality. Both of these clubs may, in fact, be better than their respective rankings in that poll. Nevertheless, the difference between the No. 20 team and the No. 25 team isn’t nearly as drastic as the difference between the No. 5 and No. 10 team.

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The Illini should absolutely dominate the Cornhuskers on the glass. Given the relative shortcomings of Brad Underwood’s squad in that department in its past few outings, it’s possible the margin is closer than it should be, but Illinois will undoubtedly control the boards to at least some extent.

And given the level the Illini defense has been operating at, specifically on first attempts in each possession, the Cornhuskers are going to find points extremely tough to come by. Offensively, Illinois will surely rely heavily on its talent once again, staying away from any complex schematic design and simply letting its players operate.

As the old adage goes: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. And with an Illinois offense currently ranked No. 5 in KenPom in terms of efficiency, it very clearly isn’t broken. 

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As Nebraska has done all season thus far to its opponents, Fred Hoiberg’s unit figures to make the Illini appear somewhat less than. But between the size and talent disparity, not to mention the home-floor advantage, Illinois will still very likely put an end to Nebraska’s exceptional undefeated start – even if it is a tighter battle than the Illini would like.





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