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2024 College football odds: Take Nebraska, Miami in Week 1; other best bets

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2024 College football odds: Take Nebraska, Miami in Week 1; other best bets


College football is so back. 

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The entire country is playing this weekend, meaning every single team is on the field. However, while that might increase the urge to wager heavily, I suggest being judicious with your Week 1 wagers, as teams with new rosters will see their first time on the field together.

Let’s get into my picks for Week 1.

(All times ET)

UTEP @ Nebraska -27.5 (3:30 p.m., FOX)

I love this spot for the Cornhuskers, who are looking to win their opening weekend contest for the first time since 2019.

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Matt Rhule is entering his second season at Nebraska with high expectations, after the Cornhuskers added five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola to a team that’s returning a ton of production. Nebraska returns speedsters at wide receiver, quality running backs and four of five offensive linemen. 

In short, the offense will be better with a competent quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over and an offensive line that can block. 

Nebraska’s defense returns eight starters off a unit that was fantastic last season. In fact, it was seventh in rushing defense and 27th in passing defense. The D does an outstanding job of limiting explosive plays as well.

UTEP is coming to Lincoln with everything new — a new head coach with new players on offense and defense — and I anticipate it’s going to be a struggle for the Miners. Their offense is mostly composed of transfer players from Austin Peay, who followed new head coach Scotty Walden and a brand new offensive line. All five starters from last season are gone and playing on the road at Nebraska in this unit’s first start is a recipe for disaster. 

UTEP returns only three starters on defense and that unit is going to be tested by Nebraska’s size and length.

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Also, worth noting is Rhule’s record as a head coach in his second season at a program. After winning two games at Temple in 2013, his 2014 Temple squad opened the season with a 37-7 win at Vanderbilt. While at Baylor, Rhule’s squad opened his second season with a 55-27 win against Abilene Christian after winning just a single game the year before. 

We’ve seen this before from Rhule’s teams, and I expect a big win to start Year 2 against an inferior opponent.

PICK: Nebraska (-27.5) to win by more than 27 points 

Can Nebraska, Michigan challenge Ohio State in the Big Ten?

Can Nebraska, Michigan challenge Ohio State in the Big Ten?

Miami @ Florida +3 (3:30 p.m., FOX)

Call me a Mario Cristobal homer, but I believe in this Miami Hurricanes team. The Miami roster has finally matured in the trenches after a few years of building via high school recruiting. The Hurricanes were able to add quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez via the portal to complete their offense. 

However, Miami’s defense was much improved in 2023, but there are question marks in the secondary this season that could hinder its success against the Gators. Florida’s wide receivers are the best unit on its offense, but the Gators will need their offensive line to step up and give quarterback Graham Mertz time to throw. The Florida offensive line allowed a sack on 10% of pass attempts last season, ranking near the bottom in the country.

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But back to Miami. 

Whenever I talk positively about the Hurricanes, the response is always the same: “What about Mario Cristobal and his game management?” 

Well, that’s a concern … against Cal in Berkeley or when they are playing a three-win team. 

I’m not concerned about a Cristobal team in a big game. I saw him, at Oregon, beat Ohio State at The Shoe with a limited quarterback and missing his best pass rusher. His Ducks team beat a top-10 Utah team to win the Pac-12 in 2019, followed by a Rose Bowl win against Wisconsin. 

This Miami team has the talent of those Ducks teams, and the Canes will be focused for this game. 

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PICK: Miami (-3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright

QUICK HITTERS

Idaho @ Oregon Over 62.5 (7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)

Oregon might score 63 points by itself. 

Oregon has played two FCS programs under Dan Lanning and the Ducks scored 70 against Eastern Washington and 81 against Portland State. Now, Idaho is better than those programs, but this is about the Ducks offense. It is even more talented than the last two seasons, with players all over the two-deep looking to make an impact on the field. 

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When the Ducks eventually go to their second string quarterback, the offense will not miss a beat. Dante Moore is a former five-star quarterback and the future of the program. The Ducks offense will look to score and score and score when Moore comes into the game. 

PICK: Over 62.5 points scored

Illinois State @ Iowa -22.5 (noon, Big Ten Network)

This number is disrespectful to Iowa. 

I get it folks — Iowa’s offense was poor last season. But that was last season. 

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This season, Iowa has a new offensive coordinator, a healthy quarterback and a much better offensive line. Also, after hearing all about how awful their offense was all offseason, I’d imagine the Hawkeyes will look to dominate on that side of the ball this weekend. 

Illinois State finished 6-5 last season and is no FCS juggernaut. They will be lucky to score a touchdown and even with that score, I think Iowa gets into the 30s. 

Remember, the Hawkeyes scored 41 against Western Michigan last season.

PICK: Iowa (-22.5) to win by more than 22 points

Follow along with FOX Sports for the latest news on the NFL and other sports.

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Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.


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Village clerk of tiny Nebraska town resigns amid probe by state auditor's team • Nebraska Examiner

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Village clerk of tiny Nebraska town resigns amid probe by state auditor's team • Nebraska Examiner


LINCOLN — The village of Litchfield in central Nebraska “boasts a whopping 280 people,” according to its website, which goes on to say that the small-town atmosphere contributes to a high quality of life.  

But a Nebraska State Auditor’s Office probe into village operations has disrupted the calm, revealing apparent misappropriation of public funds, inaccurate utility billings and lack of documentation.

State Auditor Mike Foley. (Rebecca S. Gratz for the Nebraska Examiner)

An upshot was the resignation a week ago of the village clerk, whose “improper pecuniary benefits” were a focus of the report released Wednesday.

Auditor Mike Foley, when releasing results, zeroed in on fiduciary responsibilities despite the size of a municipality. He said that “for various reasons” proper financial controls can sometimes be “less vigorous” among smaller political subdivisions.

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“But the consequences of such insufficient fiscal oversight may be just as devastating, if not more so, to those less-populous communities and their local taxpayers as to their larger counterparts,” Foley said in a media release.

Clerk and hair salon owner

A 21-page letter to the Litchfield village board detailed findings of the state auditor’s team, which looked into the village’s finances following complaints of alleged financial improprieties by the village clerk, identified in the report as Julie Miller.

Hired as clerk in November 2022, Miller was empowered with oversight and control over village financial and utility billing processes, including processing payroll payments for herself and other employees of the village.

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The report said Miller also owns a hair salon next to the village office. She was hired initially to work 20 hours a week as clerk but was authorized two months later to begin working additional hours, which were recorded as “overtime” for which she received twice her regular $15-an-hour wage.

The audit team said that change was made after Miller said her clerk duties were taking more than the agreed upon 20 hours a week and causing her to lose wages at her salon business. To account for those lost wages, the village board voted to pay her twice the normal rate for time worked past 20 hours.

It was meant to be temporary until she had received training, according to the report. But, the auditors said she was still getting the overtime rate some eight months later, even after an assistant clerk was hired.

Miller reportedly received $18,524 in “overtime” pay in eight months. One check showed she was paid $525 for one hour of overtime, the report said, noting that she did not provide an explanation.

Though troubling, the problems found with the Village’s purchasing card could have been much worse, but they serve as a cautionary tale nonetheless.

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– Mike Foley, Nebraska State Auditor

The team reported that Miller submitted conflicting timesheets, leaving the team unable to determine when she was working and if she was paid the correct amount.

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For the period examined, the Litchfield municipality was unable to provide all timesheets or other documentation to support all hours “supposedly” worked by its employees, including Miller, the team said. 

The village board did not appear to be approving payroll wages during its monthly meetings, the report said.

“Much of the blame for these problematic expenditures,” Foley said, “lies with the failure of the Village to implement proper payroll procedures.…”

Walmart purchase

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The audit team also was critical of Miller’s $97.89 purchase at a Walmart on July 4, 2023, with a city purchasing card. The audit team was able to obtain, through a “receipt lookup” website, a listing of items purchased (including clothing, charcoal and a kiddie pool) that did not jibe with what she said she had bought.

According to the report, that situation pointed to apparent unauthorized expenditure of village funds for personal benefit. The audit team said the village lacked a written policy regarding purchasing cards.

“Though troubling, the problems found with the Village’s purchasing card could have been much worse, but they serve as a cautionary tale nonetheless,” Foley said.

The report noted additional deficiencies in village operations, including a lack of supporting documentation for other expenses, inaccurate utility customer billings, payment of late fees and failure to provide timely responses to the auditor’s requests for information.

A response by the Village Board, included in the audit letter, said that in addition to accepting Miller’s resignation, the governing board proposed to implement a host of changes that respond to the auditor team’s findings.

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Those include a time clock to better track employee hours, a different review process for payroll, a more stringent oversight of purchasing cards and reimbursement of expenses and more.

Foley said he believes Litchfield can “right the ship,”

“I have no doubt that it can be done, much to the benefit of the municipality as a whole and the taxpayers who pay for its operations.…”

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Nebraska vs UTEP: The Start of Something Special

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Nebraska vs UTEP: The Start of Something Special


After persuading Dylan Raiola to switch his commitment from Georgia to Nebraska, all that’s left is to hang the banner in the Hawks Center to crown the Huskers the 2024 off-season champions.

With Raiola’s potential to shatter every Nebraska passing record and Rhule adding two new pass catchers, Jahmal Banks and Isaiah Neyor, the 2024 season looks promising. The return of Heinrich Haarberg, the 2023 leading passer, further adds depth to the offense. Whether he plays as a Taysom Hill-type gadget player or a Tim Tebow-esque goal-line QB, his presence will be felt. Nebraska gets an excellent opportunity to start its season on the right note against an opponent who hired a new coach.

Dylan Raiola throws a touchdown pass during the 2024 Nebraska football Red-White spring game.

Dylan Raiola throws a touchdown pass during the 2024 Nebraska football Red-White spring game. / Kenny Larabee, KLIN

I’ll frequently mention Expected Points Added (EPA), which is one stat I’ll cite in my pregame and post-game articles. For a given down, distance, and field position, both teams have a probability of scoring the next points in the game (the expected points). After the play, the teams have a new down, distance, and field position, resulting in a new expected points value. The difference in expected points before and after the play is Expected Points Added. This metric is stated with respect to the offense.

A positive EPA play has improved the offense’s chances of scoring the next points. A negative EPA play has improved the defense’s chance of scoring next. While assigning all the credit for EPA to the QB on a passing play isn’t perfect (after all, ten other players contributed to the play’s success), it does give us a way to rank the performance of skill position players against others in terms of who makes plays that contribute to winning.

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As soon as Dylan Raiola committed to Nebraska, it was presumed he would be the starter. He’s potentially a generational player who at least dresses like Patrick Mahomes and will hopefully play like him. Since he’s yet to play a college snap, the graph below shows Heinrich Haarberg’s 2023 cumulative season EPA. The total EPA graph is a running total of all plays where the QB ran the ball, passed the ball, or took a sack. If the line goes up, the QB was involved in a play that helped his team’s scoring chances. However, if the line goes down, that play hurts the team’s chances of scoring (and increases the opponent’s chances).

Total EPA by QB - UTEP vs. Nebraska. All QB plays 2023.

Total EPA by QB – UTEP vs. Nebraska. All QB plays 2023. /

UTEP’s Cade McConnell and Nebraska’s Heinrich Haarberg struggled in 2023, finishing with a negative EPA. This means that the total contributions during the season hindered scoring points. In 2024, I don’t expect this to be the case for Dylan Raiola. I predict he’ll finish the season with 3,000 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. Nine players in 2023 accomplished 3000 and 30, and four of the nine were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Hitting those benchmarks in his freshman season would clearly indicate his elite pedigree.

The carry distribution in the chart below goes beyond the simple “rushing average” statistic. A player with 10 carries each for 4 yards and a player with one carry for 35 yards and nine carries for 5 yards both have a rushing average of 4 YPC, but their distribution of carries would look widely different. The black vertical, dashed line represents carries of 0 yards. The two quarterbacks on the table have a significant peak of negative yards since sacks count against their rushing totals. The goldenrod vertical, dashed line represents carries of 10 yards (a first down). Emmet Johnson, for example, would consistently get positive yards but would rarely break big runs of 10+ yards.

Table by @arbitranalytics, Data from @cfbfastR, styling from cfbplotR and gtExtras

Table by @arbitranalytics, Data from @cfbfastR, styilng from cfbplotR and gtExtras /

In addition to being the Huskers leading passer in 2023, Heinrich Haarberg was the leading rusher. However, Haarberg’s rushing EPA was also negative, thanks to many sacks and negative carries. Fortunately, I expect fewer QB carries in 2024, but I could still see Haarberg getting some work as a power runner near the goal line. Emmett Johnson consistently had positive carries in 2023, while Gabe Ervin flashed some big play upside in limited availability.

UTEP doesn’t return much rushing production from its 2023 team after its top two rushers from last season entered the portal. The new head coach, Scotty Walden, brings in his leading rusher from 2023, Jevon Jackson, who rushed for 1300 yards at Austin Peay. He’s joined by TCU transfer Corey Wren, who also played at Florida State.

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This upcoming game is a crucial opportunity for Dylan Raiola to gain valuable experience in full-speed college football before the significant week two matchup with Colorado. I anticipate a comfortable win for Nebraska. My prediction for the season is a conservative 7-5 finish and a return to a bowl game. I expect Raiola to face some challenges as a freshman and make a few mistakes that might cost the Huskers a game or two; I also believe his natural talent will keep Nebraska competitive against even the most formidable opponents on the schedule.

MORE: Defending the Greatness of Nebraska Football

MORE: Lindsay Krause Shines in Husker Volleyball’s Season Opener Against No. 9 Kentucky

MORE: Carriker Chronicles: Tom Osborne on Year 2 of Nebraska Football Under Matt Rhule

MORE: No. 2 Nebraska Volleyball Grabs Season-Opening Win Over No. 9 Kentucky

MORE: Husker Doc Talk: The Season Starts! UTEP-Nebraska Football Preview

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, following HuskerMax on X, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.





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Carriker Chronicles: Tom Osborne on Year 2 of Nebraska Football Under Matt Rhule

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Carriker Chronicles: Tom Osborne on Year 2 of Nebraska Football Under Matt Rhule


Nebraska football coaching legend Tom Osborne opens up about what he sees from second-year Husker football coach Matt Rhule, expectations for Nebraska this fall and quarterback Dylan Raiola’s high ceiling. Coach Osborne offers an honest take on Deion Sanders’ coaching style, and he also surprised us all with a very strong response on a question about Tommie Frazier. Dr. Tom also has a new book on leadership. A can’t-miss interview.

Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, following HuskerMax on X, and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.





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