In the final days of a bruising primary campaign, Rep. Cori Bush, D-Mo., is fighting for her political life. 

The two-term Democrat, “Squad” member and outspoken critic of Israel’s war in Gaza seeks to fend off a challenge from St. Louis County prosecuting attorney Wesley Bell amid a flood of outside spending against her by pro-Israel groups and polls that show her trailing. It’s her biggest political test since she toppled veteran Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay in a 2020 primary that sent shock waves through Missouri’s Democratic establishment. 

The victor in the Aug. 6 Democratic primary to represent Missouri’s 1st District is all but guaranteed a seat in Congress. The deep-blue House seat encompasses St. Louis and Ferguson, where President Joe Biden in 2020 beat former President Donald Trump by 58 points, according to Inside Elections, which rates the November race as “Solid Democratic.”

Limited polling indicates Bell is surging. In mid-June, the prosecutor led Bush 43 to 42 percent in a survey conducted by The Mellman Group for Democratic Majority for Israel. A survey taken at the end of June by McLaughlin & Associates publicized by the New York Post on July 14 found Bell led Bush by 23 points.

The closely watched race has pitted two Black, self-described progressives — their political careers were each propelled by their activism on the streets of Ferguson, Mo., after the killing of unarmed Black teenager Michael Brown Jr. by a police officer in 2014 — against each other. At the time, Bush helped lead protests calling for police reform as Bell mediated between demonstrators and law enforcement. And on paper, there is broad agreement between the candidates on many Democratic priorities, including abortion access and climate change. 

That hasn’t stopped them from sparring on a host of matters.  

Bush is defending her legislative record, pitching herself to voters as the best candidate to continue the fight for progressive goals such as “Medicare for All.” Her campaign is trying to paint Bell as a centrist politician whom progressives can’t trust. 

In contrast, Bell is touting his tenure as a prosecutor and criminal justice reformer. He is seeking to portray his opponent as a self-serving legislator who is more focused on political theater than delivering tangible wins for her constituents. 

Israel stance draws spotlight

National observers and advocacy organizations are drawing attention to the race over the candidates’ reactions to a conflict thousands of miles from Missouri: Israel’s war in Gaza. 

In the wake of the Oct. 7 attacks into Israel by Hamas, Bell has reiterated his support for Israel to defend itself, resisted joining calls for a cease-fire and rejected the notion that Israel’s tactics in Gaza amount to a genocide. In contrast, Bush has emerged as one of Congress’ most outspoken critics of Israel. 

Despite her condemnation of the Oct. 7 attacks, Bush’s advocacy for Palestinians and move to sponsor a cease-fire resolution in the House have made her a primary target of pro-Israel advocacy groups. Through Thursday, United Democracy Project, an arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, had spent nearly $7.1 million on TV ads, mailings and phone banking to promote Bell or attack Bush, according to disclosures with the Federal Election Commission.

In June, AIPAC and its affiliates spent a record $14.5 million in a successful bid to oust Bush’s fellow “Squad” member, New York Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman. Two days after his defeat, AIPAC sent out a fundraising text targeting Bush. 

Another pro-Israel PAC, Democratic Majority for Israel, has spent $475,000 supporting Bell, which included a television ad that focuses on police reform and abortion rights — not Israel. 

Bush, meanwhile, has tried to use AIPAC’s support of Bell against him by highlighting the group’s conservative donors, many of whom have donated heavily to GOP candidates, including Trump and Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley. Her campaign is currently airing a TV ad with narration that makes the case directly: “Donald Trump and Josh Hawley’s donors are bankrolling Wesley Bell!”

The Bell campaign is pushing back.

Bush has not launched similar attacks on fellow House Democrats who also receive generous support from AIPAC, Bell campaign adviser Anjan Mukherjee said in an interview. 

“This is nothing more than Cori Bush playing political games,” he added. “Hakeem Jeffries also has support from AIPAC. She’s not out there criticizing him for it. She’s not out there calling him, you know, beholden to Republican money.” Jeffries, the House minority leader from New York, has endorsed Bush.

At the end of the day, both campaigns have signaled that concerns over inflation and the future of abortion access, not Israel, will be top of mind for voters next week. 

“I think it [Israel] is probably not a central issue to most of them,” Peverill Squire, a professor at the University of Missouri’s Truman School of Government and Public Affairs, said in an interview. “Most voters in the 1st District are really focused on another set of issues.” 

Candidates draw battle lines 

Bush has repeatedly said her campaign is under attack from “far-right Republican mega donors.” 

“They are bankrolling a faux-progressive, former Republican campaign operative to buy our deep blue Democratic seat,” she said in a public statement on social media that referenced Bell’s role managing an unsuccessful GOP House campaign for a personal friend in 2006. 

This week, Bush allies such as Justice Democrats, which has already spent $1.5 million on the race, were quick to highlight a potentially damaging new report regarding Bell’s prosecutorial record put out by a coalition of a half-dozen social justice watchdog organizations in St. Louis. The document concluded that Bell had fallen short in delivering on his campaign promises to reform the way the prosecutor’s office operated, increase transparency and reduce reliance on cash bail. Bell told a St. Louis newspaper last week that he believes the report is political and pointed out that some of the organizations behind the document have already endorsed his opponent.

Meanwhile, his team is highlighting Bush’s poor attendance record on House votes as evidence that she’s not serious about legislating. 

“She has often failed to show up to work, and she has failed to deliver results,” Mukherjee said.

The Bell campaign is taking Bush to task over her opposition to Biden’s 2023 debt ceiling deal, along with her vote against the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law in 2021, when Bush was one of just six House Democrats who broke with her party to vote against the measure.

“You know, that [vote] strikes people as not doing the job she was elected to do,” Mukherjee said. 

At the time, Bush said she opposed the infrastructure bill because she wanted it and a broader climate and economic package known as Build Back Better to be passed together. “I didn’t go to Congress to do what’s easy. I went to Congress to do what is necessary, and mediocrity is the enemy of progress,” Bush told a local TV station in 2021. 

Federal probe looms 

A potential wild card in the race could be that Bush faces a Justice Department investigation into her use of campaign funds to pay private security and promote her now-husband, Cortney Merritts, to join her security team. She has denied any wrongdoing. 

The FEC and bipartisan House Ethics Committee are also investigating the matter. 

Several local election observers have told CQ Roll Call they don’t believe the campaign finance questions are enough to derail Bush’s campaign. 

“It was in the news cycle for a week. Given the other scandals we hear about, this just seems so mundane. Maybe it shouldn’t be, but I think that’s how voters perceive it,” Daniel M. Butler, a professor of political science at Washington University in St. Louis, said in a June interview. 

Squire concurred. “The idea of there being some sort of petty corruption in politics is sort of built into the process here,” he said. 

Bell dominates fundraising

Heading into the primary’s final days, Bell had raised nearly $4.8 million to Bush’s $2.9 million and had $1.8 million in cash on July 17 to her $354,000.

“The money that has come in for Bell has given him a much better chance to make this race competitive than it would have been if he hadn’t gotten those resources,” said Squire. 

But, he noted, Missouri voters are being bombarded with political ads from other candidates, thanks to the state’s high-profile primary campaigns on the Republican side for governor and attorney general.

A last-minute advertising blitz by Bell, Squire observed, would be “coming in an environment where there are lots of ads inundating voters.”

Turnout, he added, will be key for Bush. Her status as an incumbent could also give her an edge. “She has voters who have come out for her in the past, and she’s undoubtedly trying to mobilize to turn out again,” he said. “The question is whether there are enough Democrats who are disenchanted with her that they’ll simply turn out and vote for Bell.”