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Missouri vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert college football model

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Missouri vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert college football model


SEC football gets underway this weekend with two ranked teams on the same field as No. 9 Missouri travels to No. 25 Texas A&M in college football’s Week 6 action, so let’s take a look at the updated predictions for the game from a proven expert model.

Missouri is still perfect through 4 games, including the SEC opener two weeks ago, but played the last 2 close, winning by a combined 11 points.

Texas A&M dropped its season opener against Notre Dame, but has won 3 games since, emerging as the first SEC team to go 2-0 in conference play with wins over Florida and Arkansas.

What do the experts have to say about the matchup?

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For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Missouri and Texas A&M compare in this SEC football game, along with an updated score prediction.

So far, the simulations favor the Tigers over the Aggies in this road matchup.

SP+ predicts that Missouri will defeat Texas A&M by a projected score of 29 to 24 and will win the game by an expected 5.2 points.

The model gives Mizzou a 63 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

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How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Texas A&M is a slight 2.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel listed the total at 48.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Missouri at -130 and for Texas A&M at +110 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

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Other analytical models also favor the Tigers to come out ahead this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Missouri is projected to win the game in 51.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Texas A&M as the expected winner in the remaining 48.5 percent of sims.

Missouri is projected to be just 0.7 points better than Texas A&M on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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Missouri is sixth among SEC teams with a 32.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Texas A&M a win total projection of 8 games and a 12.3 percent chance at the playoff.

More … Missouri vs. Texas A&M prediction: What the analytics say

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Missouri

Patrol reports 14 arrests in north Missouri from October 31 to November 3, 2024

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Patrol reports 14 arrests in north Missouri from October 31 to November 3, 2024


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The Missouri State Highway Patrol reported a series of arrests made in north Missouri between October 31, 2024, and November 3, 2024. During this period, a total of 14 individuals were arrested for various charges, ranging from driving while intoxicated to warrants for serious offenses.

Justin R. Aley, 42, of Maryville, Missouri, was arrested on October 31, 2024, at 8:50 a.m. in Gentry County. He faced charges of felony driving while intoxicated, possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), unlawful possession of drug paraphernalia, and failure to drive on the right half of the roadway. He was held at the Daviess-DeKalb Regional Jail on a 24-hour hold.

Brett M. Boies, 28, from Lee’s Summit, Missouri, was taken into custody on October 31, 2024, at 9:51 a.m. in Buchanan County. He was arrested on a Platte County misdemeanor warrant for a traffic violation and was held at the Buchanan County Law Enforcement Center. His arrest was bondable.

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Katherine M. Flores, 37, of St. Joseph, Missouri, was arrested on October 31, 2024, at 11:41 a.m. in Buchanan County on a Buchanan County misdemeanor traffic warrant. She was also held at the Buchanan County Law Enforcement Center, and her arrest was bondable.

Nico R. Munson, 25, from Robinson, Kansas, was apprehended on November 1, 2024, at 6:20 a.m. in Buchanan County. He was charged with a misdemeanor warrant for dangerous drugs out of Buchanan County and speeding. He was held at the Buchanan County Law Enforcement Center and his arrest was bondable.

Logan B. Sullivan, 35, of Saint Joseph, Missouri, was arrested on November 2, 2024, at 1:16 a.m. in Andrew County. He was charged with misdemeanor driving while intoxicated and careless and imprudent driving. Sullivan was held at the Andrew County Sheriff’s Department for a 12-hour hold.

Megan L. McCleery, 54, from Kansas City, Missouri, was taken into custody on November 2, 2024, at 4:13 p.m. in Clinton County. She faced charges that included a Platte County Sheriff’s Office felony warrant for probation violation, possession of a controlled substance (felony), and unlawful use of drug paraphernalia (misdemeanor). She was held at the Clinton County Sheriff’s Office on a 24-hour hold.

Justin L. Grider, 41, of St. Joseph, Missouri, was arrested on November 3, 2024, at 9:45 p.m. in Buchanan County. He faced a misdemeanor warrant for driving while revoked or suspended issued by the St. Joseph Police Department and a charge of failing to wear a seat belt. He was held at the Buchanan County Law Enforcement Center, with the arrest being bondable.

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Aaron D. Benton, 36, from Independence, Missouri, was apprehended on October 31, 2024, at 1:13 p.m. in Linn County. He was charged with felony failure to register as a sex offender, speeding, and driving with no valid plates. Benton was held at the Linn County Jail and later released.

Kimberly A. Smith, 45, of Kahoka, Missouri, was arrested on November 1, 2024, at 2:12 p.m. in Lewis County on a warrant for a Canton city ordinance violation. She was held at the Marion County Jail, and her arrest was bondable.

Francis A. Telarico, 47, from Kirksville, Missouri, was arrested on November 2, 2024, at 12:28 a.m. in Randolph County. He faced a charge of felony driving while intoxicated and was held at the Randolph County Jail on a 12-hour hold.

Darryl M. Webb, 58, of Minneapolis, Minnesota, was taken into custody on November 2, 2024, at 2:20 p.m. in Lewis County. He was arrested on a felony Minnesota warrant for parole violation and was held at the Lewis County Jail with no bond allowed.

Angel M. Branford Lezcano, 52, from Miami, Florida, was arrested on November 3, 2024, at 1:36 a.m. in Adair County for driving while intoxicated. He was processed roadside and released.

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Joseph A. Wolfe, 32, of Palmyra, Missouri, was arrested on November 3, 2024, at 6:25 p.m. in Marion County. He faced charges that included DWI with a person under 17 in the vehicle (three counts), failure to wear a seat belt, failing to secure a child under 16 years old with a seat belt, failing to secure a child under 8 years old with a seat belt (two counts), and failing to yield to an approaching vehicle. Wolfe was held at the Marion County Sheriff’s Department and later released.

Douglas R. Barnes, 49, from Brookfield, Illinois, was apprehended on November 3, 2024, at 8:42 p.m. in Macon County for felony driving while suspended. He was held at the Macon County Sheriff’s Department and subsequently released.

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Class of 2025 Defensive Lineman Decommits from Missouri

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Class of 2025 Defensive Lineman Decommits from Missouri


2025 3-Star defensive lineman Joshua Lewis of Dutchtown High School in Geisman, Louisiana officially announced that he is no longer committed to Missouri this week with a post on social media.

The 6-foot-4, 245 lb. defender said in his post on X, “Due to unfortunate circumstances I am not longer committed to the University of Missouri. Recruitment is back open.”

Lewis originally committed to Missouri back in April, choosing the Tigers over two other schools he had named in his top three: Houston and Tulane. Other than his final three, the big bodied defender had a plethora of division one offers from schools all around the country.

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It is unclear what the, “unfortunate circumstances,” are that Lewis is referring to with his social media post, but a lot of time still remains before the class of 2025 makes its final decisions, so a return to the Tigers could still be in play.

As of now, Missouri holds the 18th ranked recruiting class for 2025 with now 18 commitments. The Tigers are expecting visits this month from two prospects in the 2025 class: 3-Star wide receiver Jamar Browder from Lake Worth, Florida and 3-Star safety Jeremiah Jones from Murray, Kentucky.

Jones committed to Nebraska this summer, but Eli Drinkwitz and his staff hope to potentially flip the talented prospect ahead of signing day.





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Season glance: The women's games 28-29

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Season glance: The women's games 28-29


Just two games for this one.

After 27 games, I’ve got the Tigers at 15-12 overall and 4-8 in SEC play. So let’s take a quick look at Missouri’s matchups with Kentucky and Ole Miss.

With the Tigers three games over .500 with four games to go in my predictions, they only need one win to lock in a winning season.

Kentucky might be the right opportunity for it after coming off a 12-20 season with a 4-12 record in conference play.

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The Wildcats suffered early-season losses to Austin Peay and Florida Gulf Coast last season before dropping matchups against NC State, Colorado, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Louisville in non-conference play.

Kentucky’s conference wins were against the Tigers, 76-71 on Jan. 21, Florida (81-77 on Feb. 18), Mississippi State (78-68 on Feb. 22) and Georgia (64-50 on Mar. 6 in the first round of the SEC Tournament).

Kentucky leads the all-time series with Missouri 12-5 and has won the past two matchups and five of the past six. Missouri last won 74-71 in Columbia in 2022.

Pretty bad year for the Wildcats, which is why they brought in coach Kenny Brooks from Virginia Tech.

Saniah Tyler, a 5-foot, 6-inch junior guard, is the highest-scoring returner from last year’s roster after starting 13 games and scoring 10.2 points per game.

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Cassidy Rowe (5-5) started the most for Kentucky last season out of any returners with 16 starts. She averaged 2.6 points and 1.0 rebounds per game.

Brooks brought in a number of transfer recruits to fill those open spots.

Jordan Obi (6-1 graduate guard) from Penn., Georgia Amoore (5-6 graduate guard) who followed Brooks from Virginia Tech, Teonni Key (6-4 junior forward) from North Carolina, Dazia Lawrence (5-8 senior guard) from Charlotte, Gabby Brooks (5-10 sophomore guard) from Virginia Tech, Dominika Paurova (6-1 sophomore guard) from Oregon State, Clara Strack (6-5 sophomore center) from Virginia Tech and Amelia Hassett (6-3 junior forward) from Eastern Florida State College make up most of the roster.

Kentucky opens the season hosting USC Upstate on Monday and will play Louisville, Arizona State, Illinois, North Carolina and Purdue during non-conference play. I feel like Kentucky might be getting to conference play around .500 again.

The Wildcats get the easy part of the conference schedule off the bat with games against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn and Georgia to start, but then they hit the gauntlet leading up to the matchup with the Tigers.

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I’m going to say Missouri wins this one and locks in a winning season.

The Rebels on the other hand …

Ole Miss enters the season ranked No. 20 by the AP after finishing last year with a record of 24-9 overall and 12-4 in SEC play with the losses coming in conference play to LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Texas A&M.

The Rebels lost to Oklahoma in non-conference play, but beat Arizona and Michigan before losing to Louisville.

Ole Miss beat Missouri 66-45 on Feb. 26. But Missouri leads the all-time series 13-4 after winning 13 consecutive matchups from 2013 to 2021. Ole Miss has won the past three games in the series.

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The Rebels beat Florida in their first SEC Tournament game, but lost to LSU in their second. Ole Miss earned a No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament and beat No. 10 Marquette 67-66, then lost to No. 2 Notre Dame 71-56 in the second round.

Two of five players who started more than 20 games last year return for the Rebels in graduate guard/forward Madison Scott (6-2) and senior guard Kennedy Todd-Williams (6-0).

The Rebels brought in graduate guard Tameiya Sadler (5-7) who started 26 games in three years for Colorado and junior forward Christeen Iwuala (6-2), who averaged 3.3 points and 3.2 rebounds across two seasons at UCLA.

Ole Miss also added freshmen Heloisa Carrera (6-2 forward) from Brazil, Fatumata Djalo (5-10 guard) from Portugal, Jite Gbemuotor (6-2 forward) from Nigeria and Sira Thienou (6-0 guard) from Mali.

Quite the international scouting department at Ole Miss I guess.

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The Rebels open the season playing USC in France on Monday, then will face UConn or Oregon State in the Baha Mar Championship and NC State in the ACC/SEC Challenge.

I’m not super impressed by the group Ole Miss brought in to replace three key starters, but I do think the Rebels still win this one.

A 1-1 stretch for the Tigers to get them to 16-13 overall and 5-9 in SEC play with just two games left before the conference tournament.

Head on over to the Tiger Walk to discuss this and so much more.



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