Michigan
Updated winter temp forecast just got warmer for Michigan, here’s why
Long-range weather forecasts are always updated gradually as we get closer to the time period of the forecast. The winter forecast has just been updated by NOAA’s long-range forecasting experts. There’s a meaningful tweak to Michigan’s winter temperature forecast.
The tweak to the December to February temperature forecast for Michigan is to a slightly warmer scenario than the winter forecast issued one month ago. NOAA does update what they call the seasonal forecasts, which are three-month forecasts. They give us an update once a month. Yesterday the updated extended forecasts were issued.
Here’s the newest December to February temperature forecast. Just below the latest forecast I have the previous forecast for you to compare the changes.
Notice much of Lower Michigan and the eastern Upper Peninsula have been shifted into an area that leans toward having a warmer than normal winter. This first level into warmer than normal temperatures would imply it will be a slightly warmer than normal winter, if this forecast verifies as correct.
Latest issuance of winter temperature forecast, issued September 19, 2024NOAA
You can see the previous forecast last month had NOAA indicating it thought our winter temperatures could fall either to just slightly colder than normal to just slightly warmer than normal. Of course in that type of forecast a near normal temperature for winter is the most likely scenario.
Previous issuance of winter temperature forecast, issued August 15, 2024NOAA
Now NOAA leans toward us having a slightly warmer than normal winter.
So why the change? There’s a great reason. La Niña was one of the conditions expected to develop now or soon and influence our winter weather. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño. La Niña is said to be occurring when a large part of the Pacific Ocean along the equator turns colder than normal.
Well, La Niña is being slow to develop. The newest computer model projections produce only a weak La Niña and for only a short duration. The weak La Niña won’t produce the weather effects a strong La Niña would have produced. A strong La Niña often makes a cold winter for the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. While the really cold sign fades in Wisconsin, we find the cold air is close enough to occasionally leak into Michigan. With a weak La Niña we may not see a large pool of very cold air just to our northwest.
So for the winter temperature forecast we go back to the 800-pound gorilla of extended forecasting now – global warming. With warmer oceans and rapidly warming polar regions, it’s just harder to have sustained BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. Sorry I have to shout at you. I do this to protect myself. This doesn’t mean you might not think it’s cold. I don’t know what you call cold. But to have a long-lasting several month period of extreme cold is going to be very hard to do in the current cycle of a warming globe.
What does this new forecast mean in real useful terms? It means we likely have several stretches of a few days to a week when afternoon temperatures warm above freezing in the middle of winter. This means if we get nasty ice packed roads from a snowstorm or ice storm, it will melt off in a week or two.
The La Niña was predicted to last into early summer and then fade to what we call neutral conditions- neither El Niño or La Niña going on. Now the latest models show the La Niña ending sometime between February and April.
You’ll still need your winter coat based on this latest winter forecast update. You just might not need it every day this winter.
Michigan
Soccer Rides Early Second Half Goal to Win at Eastern Michigan – Ball State University Athletics
Freshman Jordyn Klaasen scored her first collegiate goal off a corner kick assist from LG Moncrief in the 51st minute to give the Cardinals (6-5-2, 3-3-1 Mid-American Conference) a 1-0 lead that proved to be the difference against the Eagles (4-6-3, 2-2-3 MAC) in a consequential match for MAC Tournament seeding.
The win was Ball State’s third in four tries on the road against conference opponents, and the team is 6-2 overall away from Muncie this year.
Kate Pallante collected two saves including one in the final minutes for her second solo shutout of the year. The Ball State backline limited Eastern to only seven shots on the day.
Joining Klassen with shots on goal from the Cardinals included Addie Chester, who placed three on goal among five total looks, Moncrief, Delaney Caldwell and Tori Monaco. Klaasen and fellow defenders Delaney Ahearn and Grier Isaacson went the full 90 minutes.
Ball State earned more corner kicks (8-5), while EMU committed more fouls (7-5) and offsides violations (5-1) on Thursday.
The Cardinals are set to return home to host Akron at 1 p.m. on Sunday.
As celebrations have filled the streets of both Israel and Gaza following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement, reactions are pouring in over 5,000 miles away in Metro Detroit.
“All news is positive right now, but we’ve seen these things before, and we proceed with cautious optimism,” said David Kurzmann, the senior director of community affairs with the Jewish Federation of Metro Detroit.
“We’re approaching the situation with a lot of cautious optimism,” said Faye Nemer, CEO of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) American Chamber of Commerce.
On Wednesday, President Trump announced that Israel and Hamas reached a deal to release all hostages and for Israel to begin to withdraw its forces. Mr. Trump calls the agreement the “first phase” of a deal to end a two-year war.
However, Nemer told CBS Detroit that the history of ceasefire deals makes her wary, but that moving forward, she’s happy President Trump was able to finally deliver on a promise he made to the Arab American community, albeit in a deal she says is far from perfect.
“OK, it’s a great first step, but for us to achieve long-lasting peace in the region, we want something a little bit more concrete, and I think that would be aligning to other Western nations that have recognized a state of Palestine,” said Nemer.
Kurzmann says that the news of the 20 hostages thought to still be alive coming home is an emotional win for the Jewish world, and that hopefully this is the beginning of a peaceful future moving forward.
“It’s our deep hope that this is the beginning of a new chapter where the hostilities are over, where there’s no more fighting or violence. But where we return to the days just prior to Oct. 7, 2023, when we saw growing normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbors.”
As both sides react to what is hopefully the beginning of the end of what has been a devastating two years abroad, Javed Ali, former senior director of counterterrorism on the National Security Council and current University of Michigan professor, tells CBS Detroit that there needs to be a concerted effort to ensure that this peace plan goes as smoothly as possible.
“The full implementation of all 20 points, this is going to take a long period of time, and there’s going to have to be a very aggressive level of oversight and monitoring and verification,” said Ali.
Ali says that he’s more confident that this agreement may lead to a long-lasting peace.
“I do think this is different just because of the more optimistic and positive tone from all parties involved, perhaps outside of Hamas have put on it. President Trump seems to have really leaned into it and has put a tremendous amount of pressure on all the parties involved.”
On Thursday, U.S. officials announced that 200 service members would go to a coordination center in Israel to support and monitor this ceasefire deal.
Michigan
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