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Updated winter temp forecast just got warmer for Michigan, here’s why

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Updated winter temp forecast just got warmer for Michigan, here’s why


Long-range weather forecasts are always updated gradually as we get closer to the time period of the forecast. The winter forecast has just been updated by NOAA’s long-range forecasting experts. There’s a meaningful tweak to Michigan’s winter temperature forecast.

The tweak to the December to February temperature forecast for Michigan is to a slightly warmer scenario than the winter forecast issued one month ago. NOAA does update what they call the seasonal forecasts, which are three-month forecasts. They give us an update once a month. Yesterday the updated extended forecasts were issued.

Here’s the newest December to February temperature forecast. Just below the latest forecast I have the previous forecast for you to compare the changes.

Notice much of Lower Michigan and the eastern Upper Peninsula have been shifted into an area that leans toward having a warmer than normal winter. This first level into warmer than normal temperatures would imply it will be a slightly warmer than normal winter, if this forecast verifies as correct.

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Latest issuance of winter temperature forecast, issued September 19, 2024NOAA

You can see the previous forecast last month had NOAA indicating it thought our winter temperatures could fall either to just slightly colder than normal to just slightly warmer than normal. Of course in that type of forecast a near normal temperature for winter is the most likely scenario.

longrangewx

Previous issuance of winter temperature forecast, issued August 15, 2024NOAA

Now NOAA leans toward us having a slightly warmer than normal winter.

So why the change? There’s a great reason. La Niña was one of the conditions expected to develop now or soon and influence our winter weather. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño. La Niña is said to be occurring when a large part of the Pacific Ocean along the equator turns colder than normal.

Well, La Niña is being slow to develop. The newest computer model projections produce only a weak La Niña and for only a short duration. The weak La Niña won’t produce the weather effects a strong La Niña would have produced. A strong La Niña often makes a cold winter for the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. While the really cold sign fades in Wisconsin, we find the cold air is close enough to occasionally leak into Michigan. With a weak La Niña we may not see a large pool of very cold air just to our northwest.

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So for the winter temperature forecast we go back to the 800-pound gorilla of extended forecasting now – global warming. With warmer oceans and rapidly warming polar regions, it’s just harder to have sustained BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. Sorry I have to shout at you. I do this to protect myself. This doesn’t mean you might not think it’s cold. I don’t know what you call cold. But to have a long-lasting several month period of extreme cold is going to be very hard to do in the current cycle of a warming globe.

What does this new forecast mean in real useful terms? It means we likely have several stretches of a few days to a week when afternoon temperatures warm above freezing in the middle of winter. This means if we get nasty ice packed roads from a snowstorm or ice storm, it will melt off in a week or two.

The La Niña was predicted to last into early summer and then fade to what we call neutral conditions- neither El Niño or La Niña going on. Now the latest models show the La Niña ending sometime between February and April.

You’ll still need your winter coat based on this latest winter forecast update. You just might not need it every day this winter.



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Michigan

Bodies of missing snowmobilers recovered from icy Michigan lake

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Bodies of missing snowmobilers recovered from icy Michigan lake


MASON COUNTY, MI – The bodies of two missing snowmobilers were found Sunday morning.

Two Grand Haven men were recovered by first responders in six feet of water on Dec. 14 in Round Lake off Sugar Grove Road in Mason County’s Sheridan Township.

The riders, aged 65 and 49, were reported missing at 12:30 a.m. after their family had not heard from them for several hours, according to the Mason County Sheriff’s Office.

At first, through family of the missing, police believed the two may have been snowmobiling on trails in Lake County. 

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The Lake County Sheriff’s Office started searching trails in attempts to locate them.

Around 4:30 a.m., the search expanded to include eastern Mason County.

A searcher located snowmobile tracks leading onto Round Lake off Sugar Grove Road. A further search showed no tracks leaving the lake.

Due to darkness and heavy snowfall, a check of the lake from shore could not be performed.

At first light, police saw what appeared to be a snowmobile helmet several hundred yards offshore on the ice.

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Mason County Sheriff’s Office launched a drone when weather permitted and spotted a hole in the ice.

There was a helmet at the hole.

Rescuers attempted to get to the area, but kept falling through the ice, making rescue efforts impossible, the press release stated.

The Michigan State Police Dive Services Team and Mason County dive team were called to assist and made their way onto the ice.

An airboat from the Manistee County Sheriff’s Office responded to support recovery efforts.

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While the team worked to get to the hole in the ice, an MSP diver fell through the ice, but was properly tethered to another diver and was pulled from the ice unharmed.

Law enforcement recovered the bodies in approximately six feet of water. Two snowmobiles were also found submerged under the ice.

The Ludington Police Department, United States Coast Guard-Manistee, Michigan DNR-Law Enforcement, Branch Township Fire Department, Carr Fire Department, Fountain Area Rescue, Free Soil Fire Department, Hamlin Fire Department, Irons Fire Department, Luther Fire Department, Pleasant Plains Fire Department, Manistee Fire Department and Norman Township Fire Department all assisted at the scene.



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Urban Meyer reacts to Sherrone Moore scandal after coach’s shock Michigan firing

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Urban Meyer reacts to Sherrone Moore scandal after coach’s shock Michigan firing


One of the best college football coaches of all time, Urban Meyer, lent some sympathy to Sherrone Moore — or at least his family — in the wake of the former Michigan head coach’s shocking firing last week. 

“Last night, I said a prayer for that family,’’ Meyer said on “The Triple Option Podcast,” speaking of Moore’s wife and daughters. 

“I mean, you’ve got three little girls,’’ said Meyer, who won a national title at Ohio State a little over a decade ago. “You’ve got a guy that was on top of the road a week ago.”

Urban Meyer reacted to the fallout of Sherrone Moore’s shock firing from Michigan. Getty Images
The former Michigan football coach was fired for cause after the university confirmed he had an inappropriate relationship with a. staffer. AP

That changed in stunning fashion, as Moore, a married father of three, went from leading the Wolverines to out of a job, fired in Ann Arbor for cause after the university confirmed he had an inappropriate relationship with a staff member.

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The situation only worsened when Moore was later arrested after he allegedly broke into the home of the staff member, and during an argument, grabbed butter knives and threatened to kill himself.

Sherrone Moore was charged on Friday with third-degree home invasion, a felony, as well as a pair of misdemeanors. AP

On Friday, he was charged with third-degree home invasion, a felony, as well as a pair of misdemeanors — stalking and breaking and entering.


Here’s the latest on former Michigan coach Sherrone Moore


Even Meyer, who created some controversy of his own during a brief, ill-fated tenure as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars — when he was seen on video in 2021 that showed him dancing suggestively with a woman who was not his wife and was later fired before finishing his lone season in Jacksonville — was stunned by Moore’s downfall.

“They’re up 6-0 on the Buckeyes at home,” Meyer said of Michigan’s early lead against rival Ohio State on Nov. 29. “And then, also, you wake up, and they’re in this situation. Rivalries aside, this is all human element. Now, this is something that, from what you read, that’s some serious stuff that went on. And just, all of a sudden, you start seeing the impact. Forget football. Who cares about football?’’

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Yaxel Lendeborg scores 29 points and No. 2 Michigan stays unbeaten with 101-83 win over Maryland

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Yaxel Lendeborg scores 29 points and No. 2 Michigan stays unbeaten with 101-83 win over Maryland


COLLEGE PARK, Md. (AP) — Yaxel Lendeborg had 29 points, a career-best nine assists and eight rebounds, and No. 2 Michigan rallied from a nine-point deficit Saturday night to defeat Maryland 101-83.

Aday Mara scored 18 points for the Wolverines (10-0, 2-0 Big Ten), who overcame a halftime deficit for the second time this season and the first since they beat TCU on Nov. 14.

Michigan scored 100 points for the fourth time in five games.

Diggy Coit made eight 3-pointers and scored 31 points for the Terrapins (6-5, 0-2), who lost center Pharrel Payne to a right leg injury late in the first half and forward Solomon Washington to ejection after he picked up his second technical foul early in the second half.

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Coit scored nine of Maryland’s first 10 points and 22 before the break, helping to prevent Michigan from opening a lead larger than six in the first half.

The Terps lost Payne, their leading scorer at 18.7 points a game, with 4:36 remaining before halftime. Yet Maryland stretched its lead from one to 50-45 at the midpoint, then expanded it to 56-47 on Elijah Saunders’ 3.

Washington, who had a first-half technical for celebrating a 3 in front of the Michigan bench, was called for a delay-of-game technical just after Saunders’ basket. His departure left the Terps without their two most experienced and imposing interior players.

Lendeborg took advantage, scoring the next eight points. Mara’s dunk with 14 minutes left made it 64-63 and gave the Wolverines the lead for good.

Elliot Cadeau’s layup with 21.2 seconds remaining got the Wolverines to 100 points for the fifth time this season.

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Up next

Michigan hosts La Salle on Dec. 21.

Maryland visits No. 24 Virginia on Dec. 20.

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