There is a chance of severe thunderstorms today over Lower Michigan. The timing of two lines of thunderstorms should minimize the threat to just an isolated coverage on severe storms. Let’s get updated on when and where strong thunderstorms are possible.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) just sent us their tweaked severe weather forecast at 9:00 a.m. for today. They didn’t increase the likelihood of severe storms, but they did move the area northeast to cover more of Lower Michigan.

SPC doesn’t give us a chance of tornadoes today, but here are the severe wind gust and large hail forecast areas. The brown signifies the lowest chance of severe weather that is put into a forecast, five percent. This doesn’t mean severe thunderstorms won’t happen. It just means they will likely be isolated if severe storms do occur.

All of Lower Michigan except the northeast corner has a chance for a quick severe thunderstorm today or this evening.

The hail forecast doesn’t cover as much area. This is because any hail will need the heat of the afternoon to form. This should show you were the strongest storms are expected this afternoon- in Wisconsin and Illinois and just entering western Lower Michigan.

The radar forecast gives you a good idea of the storm picture this afternoon and tonight. There seem to be two lines of thunderstorms probably developing.

The timing will be on our side for not having very strong severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorms weaken for a few hours around the middle of the day. The storms then strengthen during the late afternoon and evening. Finally the storms usually weaken after sunset and through the night.

The two lines of storms will both happen during the weakening time for thunderstorms. The first line of thunderstorms will be moving through central Lower Michigan and into northeast Lower Michigan now through early afternoon. This area of rain has a few isolated thunderstorms that are already below severe limits. The midday weakening of storms should keep these in check.

The second line of storms will develop in Wisconsin and Illinois late this afternoon. Those storms will likely become severe to the west of us. Those storms move into Michigan late in the evening and overnight. Look at the radar forecast above. You see the severe storms to our west weaken in the middle of the night as they move into Michigan.

Here’s the always updated radar to track the areas of thunderstorms.

So keep the thought in your mind of a thunderstorm briefly becoming severe this afternoon or evening. It shouldn’t be widespread severe weather, but I’ll keep an eye on it for us.

We then transition to cooler spurts of downpours for the weekend.