4Warn Weather – You might have seen headlines circulating about an expected El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean.

It’s true that El Niño is likely to ramp up as we head into the summer, but what does that actually mean? And, more importantly, how could it affect the weather in Metro Detroit heading into the summer?

El Niño refers to the warm phase of a fluctuating climate pattern along the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean. More specifically, it describes sea surface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The last El Niño occurred during the winter of 2023-24. These fluctuating sea surface temperatures can have a major influence on weather patterns around the globe, including across the United States.

During an El Niño pattern, the southern United States tends to be wetter and sometimes cooler than average. Meanwhile, parts of the Midwest, including Michigan, are more often drier and warmer than average.

Some headlines have already begun teasing the possibility of a “Super El Niño.”

That term refers to sea surface temperature anomalies in the monitored El Niño region exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Since 1950, that has happened only three times, most recently during the 2015-16 event.

Right now, ocean temperatures are only beginning to trend above average. The Climate Prediction Center expects El Niño to develop in the coming months.

While forecasters say it’s likely El Niño conditions will develop, the exact strength of the event remains less certain. The likelihood of a very strong, or “super El Niño”, comes in around 37% as we get into the early part of winter.

In general, strong El Niño events don’t guarantee stronger impacts; rather, they just make certain impacts more likely.

As global temperatures continue to rise, emerging research suggests climate change is amplifying the strength of El Niño and La Niña swings by about 10%. The expected El Niño could push 2026, and even more likely 2027, to a near record category in terms of average global temperature.

So what does this mean for Metro Detroit?

Since there is a high certainty of an El Niño developing, then our forecast would look for the potential of warmer than average temperatures, as well as drier than average temperatures. This does not preclude us from getting frontal boundaries through the region that bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, but overall, the summer would trend drier and warmer than average.

Michigan vs. Ohio State took the first real step toward becoming “The Game” in college football in 1969, when first-year coach Bo Schembechler and the Wolverines stunned mentor Woody Hayes and the No. 1 Buckeyes 24-12 at Michigan Stadium.

Huge personalities on both sidelines. Personal history between them. Bordering states. Tradition-rich programs. All these elements were in place to elevate the rivalry in the 1970s and make it what it remains to this day. But don’t forget another critical element: national stakes. Michigan robbing Ohio State — a team Hayes said many times was his best — of a national championship is more impactful than anything else about this irresistible drama’s pilot episode.

Two programs that had met only once before with both ranked in the top five did so five times in the 1970s. Both were usually in the thick of the race to finish ranked No. 1; one of them always was. In nearly 60 years of football since Nov. 22, 1969, the cost of losing “The Game” has been steep for at least one of the two combatants. This is central to the rivalry’s greatness.

And now the guy who runs the Big Ten wants to take that away.

NCAA Tournament expansionist/TV executive/Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, who is navigating this era of college athletics like Joseph Hazelwood on the Exxon Valdez, is on a full PR blitz this week selling a 24-team College Football Playoff. It’s his baby, it’s got serious momentum, and the Big Ten is making sure to fill the air with endorsements — what a pleasure to find out Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is in favor of mediocre football receiving unjust rewards.

This is a bad idea on many fronts and would be an unconscionable move in 2027, just three years after the four-team Playoff tripled to 12. The financial uncertainties alone should give pause. That’s why NCAA Tournament expansionist/bad idea guy/SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is balking.

But even if the inventory is ultimately valued and bid on as hoped, Michigan-Ohio State alone tells us staying at 12 long-term is the best path. With some hope that 16 might still be OK? And persistent concerns about what 24 would do to the sport.

Everyone should acknowledge there are things we don’t and can’t know right now. Same as with the NCAA Tournament going from 68 to 76. I’m worried about what the added opening-round games and unwieldy bracket will mean to the casual fan. I don’t know that it will be damaging. Nor do you, misguided expansionist, know it will be embraced.

But I’m pretty sure this comment from Ohio State coach Ryan Day to The Athletic’s Scott Dochterman on the rivalry in a 24-team world will age poorly, if it’s given the opportunity to age: “I think it could even be more important. You’re playing for either a chance to get into the Playoff or a chance to get seeded high to get a first-round bye. Or, if you are already maybe predicted to be one of the top eight schools, then you’re fighting for a high seed. So, all those are critically important to your success in the Playoff.

“I think with the elimination of the (Big Ten) championship game, it keeps that rivalry as fierce as it’s ever been, the stakes just as high.”

The only thing that makes sense here is that Day was just talking to talk, to support his game show producer — er, league commissioner — with a united front. What does he care? Ohio State’s good, whether it’s four, 12 or 24.

If Day thought more about it, he’d consider the distinct possibility of a Michigan-Ohio State game with zero stakes. With zero tangible downside for the loser of the game. An unprecedented stinker of an outcome.

He’s right that one or both of the teams could have a bye on the line. If either is playing with a spot in the field on the line, it’s a problem. Remember last year’s mediocre Michigan team? It had a faint hope to make the 12-team field and would have been a lock for the 24. Yes, yuck.

That speaks to all the middling, “also receiving votes” sorts of teams that would have a chance in November in the 24 world, which proponents are mistaking as adding meaning to the regular season. But let’s not even get into that. Let’s also not get into the likelihood that most coaches in the 24 world would be weak in their nonleague scheduling practice so they can safely absorb three conference losses. Let’s keep it to peak Michigan-Ohio State.

If these programs are what they should be moving forward, they’ll have more meetings as they did in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Both teams were ranked in the top five entering those games. No. 5 Michigan beat No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan beat No. 2 Ohio State, and No. 3 Michigan beat No. 2 Ohio State, in order. Ohio State dropped to No. 7, No. 5 and No. 6 in the ensuing rankings, respectively.

In the 24 world, conference championship games are gone, and those rankings dictate the College Football Playoff seedings. So both teams enter “The Game” with first-round byes and home games for the second round — the top eight rest while the bottom 16 play in the first weekend — and both teams exit “The Game” with first-round byes and home games for the second round.

It means nothing. Nothing for the Playoff, at least. Congrats, Tony Petitti, you’ve found a way to make your most valuable piece of inventory as worthless as possible.

Tell me why, if you’re coaching one of these teams, if you know that even with a bye it’s going to require four Playoff victories to win a national championship, you are putting a key player at risk with so much as a tight hamstring. And don’t throw a Big Ten championship at me. Those are as quaint as pet rocks these days.

The rivalry itself? Yes, I’ll listen to that. And this is where “I don’t know” comes into play. Of course the passion will be there for whoever lines up in this game, but decision-makers have a lot to consider. I got in touch with former Ohio State coach John Cooper and threw this scenario at him.

“The only way I’m sitting a player is if the team doctor told me to, and I don’t care what the scenario is, you’re gonna give everything you’ve got to win this game,” Cooper said. “No question. You don’t want to lose that game under any circumstances. And your fans, goodness gracious. It’s almost like you live for that one game, you know?”

Yes. But Day lost it in an enormous upset in 2024. Then he took advantage of the first 12-team Playoff and had Ohio State fans, who were lining up to fire him, lining up for a national championship parade a few weeks later. It’s a different world.

And the 24 world doubles the difference. I reminded Cooper of these things. Even the teams with byes face four games to win it all. That’s a tidy 16, an NFL season, for the student-athletes in this era of “player safety.” There’s a good chance Michigan and Ohio State would meet again.

And unlike the NFL, where every seeding spot matters because it’s all home stadiums until the Super Bowl, there would be no Horseshoe or Big House advantage in such a rematch. Because apparently, we’re preserving the pet rocks known as bowl tie-ins for the quarterfinals and semifinals.

“You’re asking me questions about things I’ve never been through, obviously,” Cooper said.

Nobody knows for sure how they’d respond to such a situation. Though some probably have a better idea than others.

I got in touch with an agent who represents college football players and threw this scenario at him — you’ve got a prominent client in this rivalry, he’s banged up as most are by late November, he’s looking at a high draft slot and he’s trying to decide whether to risk himself for this game with so much of the season potentially still ahead.

The agent laughed. I can’t think of a better response to this entire discussion.