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Betting the Big Ten: Week 13 is for all the marbles

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Betting the Big Ten: Week 13 is for all the marbles


The winning train kept rolling in Week 12. We took four unders this past week, and three of the four ended up hitting, with only the Michigan-Maryland matchup going over. Elsewhere, Penn State bounced back and covered by a half point, while Nebraska choked away a lead to Wisconsin.

After going 6-1 in Week 11, we followed it up with a 5-2 week in Week 12. I hope you’ve been following along because we are scorching hot!

All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Iowa at Nebraska (-1), O/U 26.5, Noon Friday

Nebraska desperately needs to win this game in order to be bowl eligible. Iowa, on the other hand, has the Big Ten West locked up already and is simply playing for a better bowl game. As late as Sunday night, Iowa was favored in this game, but it has now crossed the bridge to a Nebraska lean. At home in desperation mode, I’m going to go with the Cornhuskers.

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The pick: Nebraska -1

Penn State (-21) vs. Michigan State at Ford Field, O/U 43.5, 7:30 p.m. Friday

Why Michigan State chose to give up its senior day to a neutral site game will never make sense to me. Sure Ford Field is indoors in late November. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more Penn State fans in attendance than Michigan State fans. On the field, Penn State continues to be a sparkling 8-3 against the spread while Michigan State is a ho-hum 4-5-1. As a favorite, Penn State is 8-1 at covering while Michigan State is 2-5-1 as an underdog. That’s a pretty strong trend. I wish this spread was 20.5 but I’ll suffer through and lay all 21.

The pick: Penn State -21

Ohio State at Michigan (-3.5), O/U 46.5, Noon Saturday

Vegas is telling me all I need to know about this matchup. When lines were first being released a week or two ago, it opened at around Michigan -5. Since then Jim Harbaugh has been suspended and is unable to be on the sidelines, Michigan linebackers coach Chris Partridge has been fired, the Wolverines nearly lost an ugly trap game against Maryland, both Michigan’s starting and backup left tackles have missed time with injuries, and — according to The Action Network — 82 percent of the public money is on Ohio State. All of these factors should have pushed this line towards Ohio State tremendously. The line has moved by 1.5 points. Vegas knows something. Michigan is winning this game.

The pick: Michigan -3.5

Indiana at Purdue (-2.5), O/U 50, Noon

The stakes are very low in the 2023 iteration of this rivalry, as neither team can reach a bowl game. Indiana is 5-5 ATS and had covered for three straight games prior to losing outright to Michigan State as a favorite. Purdue is 4-6 ATS and had covered against Michigan and Minnesota prior to failing to cover against Northwestern. However, the best trend I can find here is on the over/under. As an underdog, Indiana is 5-2 at hitting the over while Purdue is 3-0 as a favorite. In addition, more than 50 points have been scored in this rivalry in four of the past five years. Give me the over.

The pick: Over 50

Northwestern at Illinois (-6), O/U 47, 3:30 p.m.

Northwestern has quietly been the underdog story of the Big Ten this year. At 6-5 the Wildcats are already bowl eligible, while Illinois (5-6) needs this one to get there. Both teams are middling at hitting the over as Northwestern is 5-5 and Illinois is 5-5-1. However, against the spread Illinois has been very bad, sitting at 3-8 and 0-6 at home. Northwestern on the other hand is 6-4 ATS. I’ll take the Cats.

The pick: Northwestern +6

Wisconsin (-2.5) at Minnesota, O/U 42, 3:30 p.m.

Minnesota is another team that desperately needs a rivalry game win in order to gain bowl eligibility at 5-6 on the season. The Badgers gained bowl eligibility thanks to their ugly win at home on senior night against Nebraska. Neither team is great ATS as Wisconsin is 4-6-1 and Minnesota is 3-7. Similarly, there aren’t any great trends in overs or unders for these two teams. To me, a healthy Tanner Mordecai makes the difference here. I’ll take the Badgers in this one but I don’t feel great about it compared to the rest of the matchups on the board this week.

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The pick: Wisconsin -2.5

Maryland (-1) at Rutgers, O/U 43.5, 3:30 p.m.

Sitting at 6-5, both of these teams are already bowl eligible. To me this game is essentially a pick ‘em. Maryland is 5-6 ATS while Rutgers is 6-4-1. On the total, Maryland is 6-5 while Rutgers is 5-6. Those are hardly trends that I’m willing to bet on. In this game I’m looking at the history between these two programs as they’ve played each other every year since they joined the Big Ten. In the past five years, Maryland has won four of five. More notably, the Terrapins have scored 34 or more points in each of those four wins (the only loss was a 27-24 Rutgers win in 2020). This points me to the over as the Terps can clearly score on the Scarlet Knights.

The pick: Over 43.5



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Former Michigan 4-star QB commit chooses new Big Ten school

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Former Michigan 4-star QB commit chooses new Big Ten school


Amid Michigan’s widely reported pursuit of Belleville 2025 five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood, Fort Myers (Fla.) Bishop Verot four-star signal-caller Carter Smith backed off his verbal pledge to the Wolverines on Oct. 30.

Michigan secured a commitment from Underwood on Thursday, flipping him from LSU, while Smith also has found a new home.

The No. 164 overall prospect nationally, per the 247Sports Composite rankings, announced Sunday night on social media his intention to play at Wisconsin.

“I’ve talked to a lot of coaches in such a short time and have made many amazing relationships,” Smith wrote in a first-person story in the News-Press. “I am extremely grateful for all the opportunities that were offered to me. With that being said, I decided to commit to the University of Wisconsin.

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“I fell in love with everything that they had to offer: an electric fan base, an incredible coaching staff, and a great education. I could not have gotten more lucky! Go Badgers!”

Smith was one of the first players to join Michigan’s 2025 class, committing in November 2023 when Jim Harbaugh was still the coach. He took a visit to Ann Arbor for the Wolverines’ showdown against Michigan State on Oct. 26, but shortly after, Michigan’s full-court press to try and land Underwood, the No. 1 recruit in the country, became highly publicized.

“He felt extremely disappointed in how they handled everything,” Smith’s father, Dan Smith, told ESPN.

After reopening his recruitment, Carter, the Gatorade Player of the Year in Florida in 2023, received interest from a handful of schools and took an official visit to Wisconsin on Nov. 15 against No. 1 Oregon. He becomes the highest-ranked prospect in the Badgers’ class and is the second former Michigan pledge to choose Wisconsin in the past week. Palatine (Ill.) four-star defensive lineman flipped his commitment on Wednesday.

Michigan turning its attention to Underwood during a season where the offense has largely been inept signals a shift in recruiting under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore. Multiple outlets have reported that Underwood is set to earn a name, image, likeness package in the millions when he is expected to ink his letter of intent during the early signing period Dec. 4-6.

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The state recorder holder in passing and total touchdowns is the second No. 1 overall recruit Michigan has landed in the online rankings era.



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Central Michigan coaching job profile: Pluses, minuses and candidates to replace Jim McElwain

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Central Michigan coaching job profile: Pluses, minuses and candidates to replace Jim McElwain


The Central Michigan job is open. Head coach Jim McElwain announced he will retire at the end of the season, coming off a win against rival Western Michigan last week.

McElwain is 33-35 in six seasons leading the Chippewas. They reached the MAC championship game in his first season in 2019 and posted a 9-4 season in 2021 capped by a Sun Bowl win against Washington State, but CMU is in the midst of a third consecutive losing season.

So how good is the Central Michigan job? What names could get in the mix? Based on conversations with industry sources, here is a report card for the job and the potential candidates to watch.

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Recent history/tradition: C+

CMU has historically been one of the better teams in the MAC, winning the conference three times from 2006 to ’09 and reaching 11 bowls in 16 years from 2006 to ’21. Brian Kelly and Butch Jones both parlayed successful runs with the Chips into the Cincinnati job. But there have been just two winning seasons in the last seven years. McElwain found some success but never consistency.

On-field outlook: D+

The roster is in desperate need of playmakers. CMU doesn’t have a top-15 passer or receiver in the MAC, and leading rusher Marion Lukes is a senior. The defense has some bright spots in junior linebacker Jordan Kwiatkowski and defensive lineman Jason Williams. For what it’s worth, CMU ranks seventh in the conference per 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite ratings, which are based on high school recruiting rankings.

Money matters: C

McElwain’s $1 million salary was near the top of the MAC but may not be enough to hire a Power 4 coordinator. CMU was fourth in the MAC in football spending in 2022, according to Sportico’s most recent numbers. The $22 million Chippewa Champions Center, an end zone facility with new meeting rooms, locker rooms, a weight room and more, opened in 2020. CMU also has an indoor practice field, making this altogether one of the better setups in the MAC.

University stability: C+

The school just got a new president in Neil MacKinnon, and athletic director Amy Folan has been there since 2020 after nearly two decades at Texas. School support for football has generally been strong. But the school is also dealing with its potential role in the Connor Stalions sign-stealing scandal at Michigan. The NCAA investigation is ongoing, but ESPN confirmed the NCAA believes Stalions was on the CMU sideline for a game against Michigan State in 2023. McElwain has said he knew nothing about it, but CMU quarterbacks coach Jake Kostner, who is close with Stalions, resigned earlier this season. It’s unclear what potential penalties CMU could face and how McElwain’s retirement could impact that.

Coach pool: C-

Notre Dame quarterbacks coach Gino Guidugli coached at CMU from 2010 to ’16. The former Cincinnati offensive coordinator is expected to get Power 4 offensive coordinator looks in this cycle and has done a good job with Riley Leonard at Notre Dame this season.

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Kansas co-offensive coordinator Jim Zebrowski spent 2017 to 2020 in the MAC at Buffalo, and he has developed quarterbacks like Tyree Jackson, Jason Bean and Jalon Daniels. Zebrowski has head coaching experience at Division III Lakeland, going 28-12 in four seasons and reaching the playoffs for the first time in program history.

Illinois defensive backs coach Corey Parker is a Detroit native who previously coached at Toledo and played at Eastern Michigan. He helped develop cornerback Quinyon Mitchell into a two-time All-American and first-round NFL Draft pick. He was a Michigan high school coach from 2006 to ’21 and was a regional director in the Michigan High School Coaches Association. This year, he has played a big role in Illinois’ 8-3 start.

Ole Miss wide receivers coach George McDonald is an Indiana native and has MAC experience at Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, where he coached Greg Jennings. McDonald spent the previous three years at Illinois and works with an Ole Miss offense that sits fourth nationally in scoring.

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers coach Zach Azzanni is a CMU alum who coached with the Chips from 2007 to ’09. He recruited Antonio Brown and Eric Fisher to the school during a dominant period under Jones. He has also coached at Florida, Tennessee and Wisconsin and has been in the NFL since 2017. His receivers have played a big role in the Steelers’ 8-3 start this season.

Houston offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay was a CMU assistant from 2019 to ’21, including as offensive coordinator during the nine-win 2021 season. He has since been the offensive coordinator at Appalachian State, Mississippi State and Houston.

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Wisconsin outside linebackers coach Matt Mitchell was the head coach at Division II Grand Valley State in Michigan from 2010 to ’22, with four top-five finishes. He has spent the last two years in Madison.

Butler head coach Mike Uremovich is 18-8 in three seasons at the Indiana FCS program, including 9-2 this year. He previously coached at Northern Illinois for seven seasons over three stints, so he has MAC experience. The Indiana native has spent almost his entire career in the Midwest.

Michigan defensive line coach Lou Esposito has coached in the state since 2010, including seven years as a Western Michigan assistant. Despite the Wolverines’ struggles this year, Esposito’s defensive line has been a strong point, ranking 21st in yards per carry allowed. Esposito has also coached at Division II Ferris State, and he went 6-5 as NAIA Davenport’s head coach in 2016.

Iowa special teams coordinator LeVar Woods has done a good job with the Hawkeyes, where he played and has spent his entire coaching career, a member of Kirk Ferentz’s staff since 2008. Punter Tory Taylor was one of the best in NCAA history, and people around Iowa believe Woods could be ready to take on a bigger job.

Stony Brook head coach Billy Cosh inherited an 0-10 program this year and has the Seawolves at 8-4 and ranked in the FCS top 25. Cosh was previously the offensive coordinator at Western Michigan and Richmond.

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Minnesota co-offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh (no relation to Jim) is a Western Michigan alum and former coach there. He’s been with the Gophers since 2022 and was promoted to co-OC the next year, and the Gophers are going to a third consecutive bowl game.

Overall grade: C

The expectations are rightfully high in Mt. Pleasant. The facility setup and pay is pretty good relative to the MAC, too. But the roster needs an overhaul, and the big success of the somewhat recent past is getting further away.

(Photo: Rey Del Rio / Getty Images)



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Colston Loveland injury update, other Michigan offensive notes

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ANN ARBOR – The Michigan Wolverines had just about everything go well this week in a 50-6 win over the Northwestern Wildcats, but the first-half injury to junior tight end Colston Loveland looms large heading into next week’s game against Ohio State.

Loveland appeared to injure his shoulder on his touchdown catch at the end of the first half, which extended its lead over Northwestern to 17-6 heading into the locker room. The Michigan radio broadcast said at halftime he did not come out of the locker room and would not play the rest of the game.

Head coach Sherrone Moore briefly touched on the injury after the win, deferring to his medical staff.

“Yeah, just working through something,” Moore said. “We’ll see what they say when we go see the doctors.”

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Loveland is considered a potential NFL Draft pick next spring and is one of the best tight ends in college football. Saturday was the first time this season that Loveland did not lead the team in receiving in a game he played in. He missed the Week 4 win over USC with a shoulder ailment.

“He’s unbelievable,” Moore said. “You talk about a guy that just works from Gooding, Idaho. Very unknown. He’s come in here and been a name in college football that everybody knows. He’s just outstanding in every way. It’s a blessing to be around. It’s a pleasure to be around in every way. I’m just glad we got him.”

He finished the day with 3 catches for 22 yards and the score right before the half, setting a new single-season record for receptions by a Michigan tight end with 56 catches for 588 yards and five touchdowns, supplanting Bennie Joppru’s 53 catches in 2002. Loveland is also second all-time in career tight end touchdowns at U-M with 11, tied with Jake Butt.

Michigan’s run game finds itself in the second half

Coming into this game, Michigan’s run game had tapered off in a big way over the last several weeks, and the first half was more of the same. The Wolverines had 12 carries for 14 yards in the first half, and then busted out in a big way out of the locker room.

Michigan pounded the Wildcats on the ground on a 5-play, 75-yard drive – all runs – to take a commanding 24-6 lead. Graduate running back Kalel Mullings had 4 of those carries for 73 yards and the touchdown. It woke up everyone, running 23 times for 187 yards and 8.1 yards per carry in the final two quarters.

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Mullings finished the day with 12 carries for 92 yards and 3 scores, while senior Donovan Edwards chipped in with 10 carries for 52 yards and a 20-yard touchdown run. Even senior Tavierre Dunlap found his way into the endzone for a 20-yard scamper in the fourth quarter.

Michigan adjusted, and it paid off.

“I thought we did a good job formationally adjusting and helping the box fronts,” Moore said after the game. “Sometimes you get a lot of people in the box and it’s hard to run. Some formations dictate that they can. Some formations dictate that they can’t. I also thought the guys just moved their guys more. And we did a really good job fundamentally playing with lower hats, better hands. And Kalel obviously got it going really early with a huge run. So I think that momentum was great.

Mullings had struggled in recent weeks due in part to inconsistent usage and poor run blocking up front. His bread and butter this season had been breaking tackles and making people miss. Saturday afternoon was a return to form.

“The biggest thing for us was, you have to make the safeties miss, as backs,” Mullings said. “In the first half we had a couple of big opportunities, but the safeties were able to get us down. We knew, early in the play, get our eyes on the safety. These guys were coming down pretty fast, pretty hard, and we had to have a move ready, have a move in your head to make that safety miss and get to the end zone.

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“It felt amazing. It’s my last game in The Big House. Me and Dono were talking about it. Both of our last plays were touchdowns. There’s nothing more you could ask for. It felt amazing to help the team win, help get the run game going, and be able to make plays. It feels like bliss, honestly.”

Davis Warren on first half ending drive, relationship with Jared Goff

Senior quarterback Davis Warren made his 7th start of the season – and 4th in a row – in Saturday’s win, finishing the game 26-for-35 for 195 yards with a touchdown and interception. It was far from a flawless performance, and one of the highlights of his season thus far came on an 11-play, 65-yard drive at the end of the first half that ended in a three-yard score to Loveland.

“It was awesome. It was great to see,” Warren said after the game. “It was great for our defense to get a stop, hold, and then for our offense to go down and score. So it was a huge part and great momentum shifting into the second half.”

Between the first half drive to close things out and the Mullings drive to start the second half, U-M won the “middle eight” and put its foot on the gas the rest of the way, something that had eluded them all year.

“It was huge, just setting the tempo going into halftime,” Warren said. “We talk about that middle eight all the time. We want to win that middle eight. Being able to do that was huge. The receivers did a great job, and Dono was a great option in the pass game. If they’re keying Colston, or whoever, I can dump it down to him and he can make a play. I’m just proud of the way we executed in that drive and it really gave us some momentum going into the half, to really take it to them.”

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In recent weeks, it came out that Warren had developed a relationship with Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, another California guy who made his way to the state of Michigan. The two have bonded over their journeys and become friends dating back to when Warren was a prep star working through cancer treatments in high school.

“He texted me last week, after the Texans game,” Warren said. “Then they beat the Jaguars by 50, that next week. Maybe he should text me every week. That might help him out a little bit.

“That relationship is huge for me. He was there for me when I needed someone when I was going through my treatment, and that relationship just grew. Working with the same trainers, and we both go from Southern California to the Detroit area. It’s been so cool seeing him and watching him. When I was thrown back into the lineup, it was watching a lot of his throws, checking down to the running back, and him talking about it, how you’ve got to be a point guard.”

Warren and Goff now have dueling 50-point performances between the two of them. Nobody is expecting that to happen next week against Ohio State, but Moore knows it can serve as a springboard.

“Yeah, great momentum,” Moore said. “Great momentum, but we all know what that game means. It’s a reset. It doesn’t really matter what your record is. It doesn’t really matter what you’ve done before. That game’s different. So we’ve got to go prepare.”

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Miscellaneous offensive notes

• Freshmen Jadyn Davis (QB) and Micah Ka’apana (RB) made their Michigan debuts on Saturday.
• The offense had a season-high 25 total first downs.
• Mullings’ 47-yard run in the third quarter was the third longest of his career (53 and 63 yards, both this season).
• His three-touchdown game was the first for U-M since Blake Corum’s game against Purdue last season.
• Michigan threw the ball 24 times in the first half and 35 on the night. Coming into this game, the Wolverines had attempted 24.2 passes per game.
• Junior WR Tyler Morris led the team with a career-high 7 catches for 64 yards on Saturday.
• Edwards had four catches on Saturday, moving into third-place all-time for receptions for a U-M running back with 84 career catches, passing B.J. Askew (83, 1999-02).
• Freshman running back Jordan Marshall received his first carries of the season, finishing with 7 for 17 yards. He also had a 63-yard kick return.



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