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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: Who wins, and why?


A pair of ranked Big 12 rivals both coming off losses and 0-1 in conference play look to get back on track this weekend as No. 23 Kansas State welcomes No. 20 Oklahoma State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Kansas State had a 71 percent chance of victory heading into BYU, but saw those chances evaporate as it allowed 31 unanswered points on the road and suffered 3 turnovers, coming into this week ranking just 117th nationally in passing production per game.

Oklahoma State is posting almost 310 yards in the air per game, but ranks 115th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing capacity, as reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon failed to rush for 50 yards in each of his last 3 games and is averaging just over 3 yards per carry in that time.

The Cowboys are 2-1 against the spread against FBS opponents this season, while the Wildcats are 1-2 ATS in that category coming into this weekend.

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What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should be watching out for as Kansas State and Oklahoma State square off, along with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Run the ball. Ollie Gordon is college football’s reigning Doak Walker Award winner but has been missing in action this season, with 258 total yards and 4 touchdowns, was held to under 3 yards per carry the last 2 games, and is yet to run for 50 yards against an FBS defense.

He’s yet to adapt as opponents load the box against him, and the Wildcats could present another formidable challenge. They rank 16th in FBS in rush defense allowing just over 83 yards per game and are 17th in surrendering just 2.75 yards per carry from opposing backs.

2. Ditto for K-State. The story is different, albeit mixed, for Kansas State, which boasts a top-15 rushing attack behind D.J. Giddens and Dylan Edwards. As a whole, the team is posting 6.5 yards per attempt, 6th nationally. 

One area of relative weakness? They have just 4 total rushing TDs this year, in part because the offense is a middling 62nd in third-down production, moving the chains on 42 percent of attempts.

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3. Pokes can sling it. As the Cowboys’ ground game has stalled, Alan Bowman is picking up the slack, leading an aerial attack that is 15th in passing production, averaging almost 311 yards per game and is hitting nearly 63 percent of his attempts.

But the Wildcats could throw him out of rhythm, boasting a strong front seven alignment that leads the Big 12 with 12 sacks and 31 tackles for loss. K-State’s 7.8 TFLs per game are 14th in FBS, and Brendan Mott is 12th in the country with 4 sacks and 4 QB hurries.

Most analytical models are giving the Cowboys a slight edge over the Wildcats this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma State is projected to win the game in the majority 52.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

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That leaves Kansas State as the expected winner in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.

The model projects a very close game, as Oklahoma State is expected to be 1 point better than Kansas State on the same field.

More … Cowboys vs. Wildcats: What the analytics say

Kansas State is a 4.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 57.5 points per game.

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FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at +164 and for Kansas State at -200 to win outright.

In a game loaded with early Big 12 title implications, it should come down to whichever team runs the ball better and owns the time of possession battle.

Bowman has the arm and the receivers to credibly test the Wildcats’ secondary, but the lack of a rushing threat in the loss to Utah shows that good front sevens can contain Gordon and reduce the Cowboys’ offense to one dimension.

Kansas State’s capacity to limit ground gains up front combined with its potent rushing capacity should be enough to pull this out, but it will be close.

College Football HQ picks …

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More … Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert model

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Sheriff: Carfentanil seized during Kansas drug bust

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Sheriff: Carfentanil seized during Kansas drug bust


MONTGOMERY COUNTY —A series of recent drug arrests lead to taking methamphetamine and fentanyl off the streets in southeast Kansas.

On January 7, deputies conducted a traffic stop on a maroon Mercury Grand Marquis at the intersection of 10th Street and Walnut Street in Independence, Kansas, according to Sheriff Ron Wade.

Conrad photo Montgomery Co.

Deputies contacted the driver, identified as Breeanna Conrad of Independence, Kansas, and informed her of the reason for the stop. Deputies developed probable cause to search the vehicle. During the search, deputies located more than six (6) grams of methamphetamine, a small amount of cocaine, marijuana, multiple pills, and drug paraphernalia.

Conrad was taken into custody and transported to the Montgomery County Department of Corrections, where she was booked on the following charges:• Distribution of methamphetamine• Possession of cocaine• Possession of marijuana• No proof of vehicle insurance• Improper emerging from an alley, private roadway, or building.

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Leach photo Montgomery Co.
Leach photo Montgomery Co.

Later on January 3, 2026, deputies conducted a traffic stop on a Saturn passenger vehicle at the exit ramp from U.S. 400 to U.S. 75 Highway, north of Sycamore, Kansas. The vehicle was occupied by three individuals. Deputies contacted the driver, identified as Heather Leach of Independence, Kansas, and informed her of the reason for the stop.

Norton photo Montgomery Co.
Norton photo Montgomery Co.

Deputies developed probable cause to search the vehicle.D uring the search, deputies located more than nine (9) grams of methamphetamine, more than six (6) grams of suspected carfentanil, pills, and drug paraphernalia. Leach, along with Tyler Norton and Noah Daniel, both of Independence, Kansas, were taken into custody.

Norton photo Montgomery Co.
Norton photo Montgomery Co.

All three were transported to the Montgomery County Department of Corrections and booked on the following charges:Heather Leach• Distribution of fentanyl• Possession of methamphetamine• Possession of drug paraphernalia• Failure to stop or yield at a stop sign• No proof of vehicle insuranceTyler Norton• Distribution of fentanyl• Possession of methamphetamine• Possession of drug paraphernaliaNoah Daniel• Possession of methamphetamine• Possession of a depressant• Possession of drug paraphernalia



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Kansas City man injured after single-vehicle crash Sunday

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Kansas City man injured after single-vehicle crash Sunday


WYANDOTTE COUNTY, Kan. (WIBW) – A Kansas City man was left with minor injuries after a single-vehicle crash Sunday.

According to the Kansas Highway Patrol Crash Log, the crash occurred around 5:50 a.m. in Wyandotte County.

A 2019 GMC Terrain was traveling eastbound on westbound I-70 in the outside shoulder when it struck the end of the concrete bridge railing for 134th Street.

The driver, a 23-year-old man, was taken to the hospital with minor injuries. He was not wearing a seatbelt.

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View the KHP report HERE.



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Kansas Citians hold vigil, protest for Renee Good to get ‘justice’ while demanding ICE reform

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Kansas Citians hold vigil, protest for Renee Good to get ‘justice’ while demanding ICE reform


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – Large protests were organized across the country calling for justice for Renee Good, including in Kansas City, where Good lived before her move to Minneapolis.

Because Renee Good once called Kansas City home, locals still consider her one of their neighbors. They want her death to be a turning point in how ICE works.

The gathering began with a vigil as roughly 1,000 protesters honored Renee Good and everyone else who has died in ICE custody or encounters. Reports show that since President Trump took office again, more than 30 people have lost their lives in that category, marking 2025 the deadliest year for the agency in over 20 years.

Hundreds gathered in Kansas City to protest after multiple federal shootings were reported, including the fatal shooting of former community member Renee Good.(KCTV5/Alex Love)

Speakers call for reform

“The killing of Renee Good reminded this country of a hard truth: this system doesn’t just harm immigrants,” one speaker during the vigil said. “It harms the soul of our communities.”

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In attendance was Bradford Bray, an Iraq War veteran who served in the Air Force and Navy from 1995-2005. He said he is furious about how ICE operates.

“It’s the constitution. That’s what we’re fighting for,” Bray said. “It’s the land of laws. These people are not trained. They’ll hire anybody with a signing bonus. If these people are trained, I’m the Pope.”

Hundreds gathered in Kansas City to protest after multiple federal shootings were reported,...
Hundreds gathered in Kansas City to protest after multiple federal shootings were reported, including the fatal shooting of former community member Renee Good.(KCTV5/Alex Love)

Like most in attendance, he disputes arguments by the federal government that Renee Good was trying to run over the ICE agent.

“Even the guy that shot her was filming her and she said I’m not mad at you,” Bray said. “She was pleasant. She was just trying to get out of the way and do the right thing. She was turning her wheels to get out of the way when she was shot.”

March moves through Plaza

After the vigil, most of the crowd turned the protest into a march through the Plaza, spreading the message that killings by federal agents cannot become the norm.

Hundreds gathered in Kansas City to protest after multiple federal shootings were reported,...
Hundreds gathered in Kansas City to protest after multiple federal shootings were reported, including the fatal shooting of former community member Renee Good.(KCTV5/Alex Love)

“I’m a 71-year-old great-grandmother who’s afraid for the future of my great-grandchildren in a country that’s turning fascist,” Terisa Mott said. “Any of them could be grabbed off the streets or shot like they shot that woman.”

Counter-protesters present

Some Trump and ICE supporters, like Scott Watts, were among the crowd. He sent condolences to Renee Good’s family but said he believes illegal immigration should not be tolerated.

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“I spent time at the southern border and I saw thousands of pretty dangerous people being let out of that border,” Watts said. “That are here now and that’s what Trump’s trying to do is protect us.”

Watts carried a sign highlighting American citizens who had been killed by illegal immigrants over the years, including Mollie Tibbetts of Brooklyn, Iowa, who was stabbed to death while jogging in 2018 by Christian Behena Rivera.

“I’m at a loss for words when it comes to stuff like this,” Watts said. “But I’ll stand out here day after day to try to educate people. I don’t want to fight or anything like that. I just want people to realize there’s dangerous people out there and they need to be aware of those people.”

The gathering stayed peaceful, and traffic kept moving smoothly.

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