Kansas
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: Who wins, and why?
A pair of ranked Big 12 rivals both coming off losses and 0-1 in conference play look to get back on track this weekend as No. 23 Kansas State welcomes No. 20 Oklahoma State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.
Kansas State had a 71 percent chance of victory heading into BYU, but saw those chances evaporate as it allowed 31 unanswered points on the road and suffered 3 turnovers, coming into this week ranking just 117th nationally in passing production per game.
Oklahoma State is posting almost 310 yards in the air per game, but ranks 115th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing capacity, as reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon failed to rush for 50 yards in each of his last 3 games and is averaging just over 3 yards per carry in that time.
The Cowboys are 2-1 against the spread against FBS opponents this season, while the Wildcats are 1-2 ATS in that category coming into this weekend.
What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should be watching out for as Kansas State and Oklahoma State square off, along with our updated prediction for the game.
1. Run the ball. Ollie Gordon is college football’s reigning Doak Walker Award winner but has been missing in action this season, with 258 total yards and 4 touchdowns, was held to under 3 yards per carry the last 2 games, and is yet to run for 50 yards against an FBS defense.
He’s yet to adapt as opponents load the box against him, and the Wildcats could present another formidable challenge. They rank 16th in FBS in rush defense allowing just over 83 yards per game and are 17th in surrendering just 2.75 yards per carry from opposing backs.
2. Ditto for K-State. The story is different, albeit mixed, for Kansas State, which boasts a top-15 rushing attack behind D.J. Giddens and Dylan Edwards. As a whole, the team is posting 6.5 yards per attempt, 6th nationally.
One area of relative weakness? They have just 4 total rushing TDs this year, in part because the offense is a middling 62nd in third-down production, moving the chains on 42 percent of attempts.
3. Pokes can sling it. As the Cowboys’ ground game has stalled, Alan Bowman is picking up the slack, leading an aerial attack that is 15th in passing production, averaging almost 311 yards per game and is hitting nearly 63 percent of his attempts.
But the Wildcats could throw him out of rhythm, boasting a strong front seven alignment that leads the Big 12 with 12 sacks and 31 tackles for loss. K-State’s 7.8 TFLs per game are 14th in FBS, and Brendan Mott is 12th in the country with 4 sacks and 4 QB hurries.
Most analytical models are giving the Cowboys a slight edge over the Wildcats this week.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Oklahoma State is projected to win the game in the majority 52.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.
That leaves Kansas State as the expected winner in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.
The model projects a very close game, as Oklahoma State is expected to be 1 point better than Kansas State on the same field.
More … Cowboys vs. Wildcats: What the analytics say
Kansas State is a 4.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The book lists the total at 57.5 points per game.
FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at +164 and for Kansas State at -200 to win outright.
In a game loaded with early Big 12 title implications, it should come down to whichever team runs the ball better and owns the time of possession battle.
Bowman has the arm and the receivers to credibly test the Wildcats’ secondary, but the lack of a rushing threat in the loss to Utah shows that good front sevens can contain Gordon and reduce the Cowboys’ offense to one dimension.
Kansas State’s capacity to limit ground gains up front combined with its potent rushing capacity should be enough to pull this out, but it will be close.
College Football HQ picks …
More … Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert model
When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
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Indiana’s portal haul continued to grow Sunday as multiple outlets reported the addition of Kansas State edge rusher Tobi Osunsanmi.
Osunsanmi has played in 36 games over the last four years and has 8.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss. Most of that production came over the last two seasons. He has a total of 47 QB pressures during his college career.
In 2025 he played in six games and had 20 tackles, 6.0 tackles for loss and 4.0 sacks. He suffered a season-ending injury in October.
He saw action in all 13 games in 2024 as a reserve defensive end and on special teams, recording 19 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble over 303 defensive snaps and 31 special teams plays.
In 2023 he saw time in all 13 games as a reserve linebacker, a rush end on passing downs and on special teams. He was tied for team-high honors with five tackles on kickoff coverage.
He played in four games in 2022 and preserved his redshirt.
The 6-foot-3 and 250-pound Osunsanmi has one year of eligibility remaining.
The Wichita, Kan. product (Wichita East H.S.) was regarded as the 232nd-best overall player in the nation for the Class of 2022 by 247Sports.
Osunsanmi will help fill the void left by outgoing edge rushers Mikail Kamara, Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley.
More transfer portal information:
For complete coverage of IU football recruiting, GO HERE.
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LAWRENCE — The Division I transfer portal window for college football is open from Jan. 2 through Jan. 16, and that means Sunday is another chance for the Kansas football program to shape its roster.
The Jayhawks already gained one public addition earlier this offseason in Grand Valley State transfer Jibriel Conde — whose signing was announced Dec. 4. Conde, who is making the jump up from Division II, is a 247Sports-rated three-star defensive lineman in the portal and is listed by KU as a defensive tackle. On Saturday, a number of current Kansas players — including redshirt freshman quarterback Isaiah Marshall, redshirt sophomore wide receiver Keaton Kubecka and redshirt sophomore defensive tackle Blake Herold — also outlined in social media posts on X that they are locked in with the program for the 2026 season.
Marshall is set to compete for the starting quarterback job next season. Kubecka has the chance to step up into a more significant role at wide receiver. Herold is in line to be a key part of Kansas’ defensive line.
Those positives, though, don’t outweigh the fact that there has been a sizable group of players who have revealed their intentions to transfer away. Looking overall, when it comes to those whose decisions became public before and after the portal opened, the significant names to know include redshirt senior safety Lyrik Rawls, redshirt junior linebacker Trey Lathan and freshman quarterback David McComb. Lathan led KU in tackles in 2025.
Check in here for more updates during this transfer portal window about a KU team that finished 5-7 during the 2025 season, with transfer ratings as outlined by 247Sports.
Kansas football transfer portal additions
Jibriel Conde (3-star defensive lineman from Grand Valley State) — KU lists him as a defensive tackle
Kansas football transfer portal departures
Joseph Sipp Jr. (linebacker)
Jacoby Davis (cornerback)
Dylan Brooks (defensive end)
Jaidyn Doss (wide receiver)
Carter Lavrusky (offensive lineman)
Trey Lathan (linebacker)
Tyler Mercer (offensive lineman)
Harry Stewart III (running back)
Caleb Redd (3-star edge) — KU lists him as a defensive end
Aundre Gibson (3-star cornerback)
David McComb (3-star quarterback)
Kene Anene (3-star interior offensive lineman) — KU lists him as an offensive lineman
Laquan Robinson (3-star safety)
Jameel Croft Jr. (3-star cornerback)
Logan Brantley (3-star linebacker)
Greydon Grimes (3-star offensive tackle) — KU lists him as an offensive lineman
Jon Jon Kamara (3-star linebacker)
Lyrik Rawls (3-star safety)
Damani Maxson (3-star safety)
Jaden Hamm (tight end)
Bryce Cohoon (wide receiver)
JaCorey Stewart (linebacker)
Johnny Thompson Jr. (running back)
Efren Jasso (punter)
Jordan Guskey covers University of Kansas Athletics at The Topeka Capital-Journal. He was the 2022 National Sports Media Association’s sportswriter of the year for the state of Kansas. Contact him at jmguskey@gannett.com or on Twitter at @JordanGuskey.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – Hundreds of people packed the Gem Theatre over the weekend to celebrate Kwanzaa.
The celebrations run nightly through January 1. Each night highlights a different core value, including unity, cooperation and faith.
The event features local vendors and performances. Organizers say it’s a great way to start the new year.
The Kwanzaa celebration is free and open to everyone.
Copyright 2025 KCTV. All rights reserved.
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