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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction: Who wins, and why?


A pair of ranked Big 12 rivals both coming off losses and 0-1 in conference play look to get back on track this weekend as No. 23 Kansas State welcomes No. 20 Oklahoma State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Kansas State had a 71 percent chance of victory heading into BYU, but saw those chances evaporate as it allowed 31 unanswered points on the road and suffered 3 turnovers, coming into this week ranking just 117th nationally in passing production per game.

Oklahoma State is posting almost 310 yards in the air per game, but ranks 115th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing capacity, as reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon failed to rush for 50 yards in each of his last 3 games and is averaging just over 3 yards per carry in that time.

The Cowboys are 2-1 against the spread against FBS opponents this season, while the Wildcats are 1-2 ATS in that category coming into this weekend.

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What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should be watching out for as Kansas State and Oklahoma State square off, along with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Run the ball. Ollie Gordon is college football’s reigning Doak Walker Award winner but has been missing in action this season, with 258 total yards and 4 touchdowns, was held to under 3 yards per carry the last 2 games, and is yet to run for 50 yards against an FBS defense.

He’s yet to adapt as opponents load the box against him, and the Wildcats could present another formidable challenge. They rank 16th in FBS in rush defense allowing just over 83 yards per game and are 17th in surrendering just 2.75 yards per carry from opposing backs.

2. Ditto for K-State. The story is different, albeit mixed, for Kansas State, which boasts a top-15 rushing attack behind D.J. Giddens and Dylan Edwards. As a whole, the team is posting 6.5 yards per attempt, 6th nationally. 

One area of relative weakness? They have just 4 total rushing TDs this year, in part because the offense is a middling 62nd in third-down production, moving the chains on 42 percent of attempts.

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3. Pokes can sling it. As the Cowboys’ ground game has stalled, Alan Bowman is picking up the slack, leading an aerial attack that is 15th in passing production, averaging almost 311 yards per game and is hitting nearly 63 percent of his attempts.

But the Wildcats could throw him out of rhythm, boasting a strong front seven alignment that leads the Big 12 with 12 sacks and 31 tackles for loss. K-State’s 7.8 TFLs per game are 14th in FBS, and Brendan Mott is 12th in the country with 4 sacks and 4 QB hurries.

Most analytical models are giving the Cowboys a slight edge over the Wildcats this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma State is projected to win the game in the majority 52.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

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That leaves Kansas State as the expected winner in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.

The model projects a very close game, as Oklahoma State is expected to be 1 point better than Kansas State on the same field.

More … Cowboys vs. Wildcats: What the analytics say

Kansas State is a 4.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 57.5 points per game.

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FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at +164 and for Kansas State at -200 to win outright.

In a game loaded with early Big 12 title implications, it should come down to whichever team runs the ball better and owns the time of possession battle.

Bowman has the arm and the receivers to credibly test the Wildcats’ secondary, but the lack of a rushing threat in the loss to Utah shows that good front sevens can contain Gordon and reduce the Cowboys’ offense to one dimension.

Kansas State’s capacity to limit ground gains up front combined with its potent rushing capacity should be enough to pull this out, but it will be close.

College Football HQ picks …

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More … Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert model

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Kansas Orders Trans Drivers to Surrender Licenses With One Day’s Notice

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Kansas Orders Trans Drivers to Surrender Licenses With One Day’s Notice


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The Kansas Division of Vehicles (DOV) has instructed transgender residents to surrender their updated driver’s licenses, as one of the nation’s most extreme anti-trans laws takes effect this week.

Trans Kansans received letters from the DOV on Wednesday informing them that licenses and other state ID papers that do not match a person’s assigned sex at birth are considered invalid and must be surrendered to the state effective immediately, ostensibly giving them less than 24 hours to make accommodations, according to multiple copies of the letter reviewed by the Kansas City Star.

“Please note that the Legislature did not include a grace period for updating credentials,” the letter read in part. “That means that once the law is officially enacted, your current credentials will be invalid immediately, and you may be subject to additional penalties if you are operating a vehicle without a valid credential.” Affected residents were “directed to surrender your current credential to the Kansas Division of Vehicles” and receive a new ID — at their own expense, as SB 244 did not provide state funding to cover the reversions, the Star noted.

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The move comes as a result of Kansas’ SB 244, which became law on Thursday and instructs state agencies to reverse gender marker changes on official documents. Gov. Laura Kelly vetoed the legislation, but the Republican supermajority overrode her veto last week.

Kansas officially recognizes only “male” and “female” as recorded at birth as valid sexes, per a state law passed in 2023. About 1,700 people are expected to have their licenses invalidated as a result of the new law, according to a legislative analysis of SB 244 conducted by the state House. The law will also invalidate amended birth certificates that were issued with a corrected gender marker.

The LGBTQ Foundation of Kansas shared a copy of one letter on Instagram, with identifying information redacted. Representatives for the nonprofit noted that some Kansas counties will hold special elections next week, and trans residents without valid photo ID cards will not be able to cast a vote under existing state law.

At least three other states have passed laws banning gender marker changes on driver’s licenses, but Kansas is now the only U.S. state to require such previous changes be reverted, according to KCTV.

“The persecution is the point,” said Rep. Abi Boatman, Kansas’ only trans state legislator, in a statement to the Star on Wednesday. “It tells me that Kansas Republicans are interested in being on the vanguard of the culture war and in a race to the bottom,” she added in a comment to KCTV.

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Kansas City man charged with murder in fatal shooting of reported missing teenage girl

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Kansas City man charged with murder in fatal shooting of reported missing teenage girl


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) – A Kansas City man has now been charged in the death of a teenage girl who was reported missing and found dead a day later from a gunshot.

Jackson County Prosecutor Melesa Johnson announced Wednesday that Eric R. Phillips II has been charged with first-degree murder, armed criminal action and abandoning a corpse, following the girl’s November 2025 death.

Elayjah Murray had been reported missing on Nov. 28, 2025. As investigators looked into her disappearance, the Independence Police Department’s Criminal Investigation Unit learned that she’d possibly been shot.

Eric R. Phillips II has been charged with first-degree murder, armed criminal action and abandoning a corpse, following the girl’s November 2025 death.(Independence Police Department/Facebook)

Multiple witnesses and surveillance footage helped detectives identify Phillips as the shooter. Court documents say he shot Murray multiple times while she was in the back of his car during the early morning hours of Nov. 28.

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A day later, police with the Kansas City Missouri Police Department found Murray in Kansas City. Phillips’ cell phone pinged in the area where Murray’s body was located.

Phillips’ bond has been set at $350,000 cash only.

Johnson said Phillips was charged on Dec. 3, 2025, under seal. The case was unsealed Wednesday in an effort to help locate Phillips.



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Kansas marijuana debate: tax dollars vs. crime concerns

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Kansas marijuana debate: tax dollars vs. crime concerns


TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) – Kansas House Democrats on Tuesday discussed separate bills to legalize recreational and medical marijuana use, citing a recent Kansas Speaks survey showing 70% of Kansans support medical legalization and 60% support recreational use.

Supporters say the legislation would generate revenue for affordable housing, childcare and property tax relief. Opponents say legalization would worsen the state’s mental health crisis and increase crime.

What supporters say

Rep. Ford Carr, D-Wichita, said the bills would direct significant revenue back to residents.

“In this legislation, we’re gonna take those funds — which could be, you know, we’re talking about $1 billion and we’re gonna give that back to the people,” Carr said.

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Rep. Heather Meyer, D-Overland Park, said Kansans are already crossing state lines to access cannabis.

“I live right on the Kansas-Missouri border. The closest dispensary is 12 minutes away[…]We’ve got cannabis on the other side of the state line. You’ve got minivans with JoCo tags on them, Wyandotte tags on them,” Meyer said.

Rep. John Alcala, D-Topeka, said constituents have long pressed him on the issue.

“I used to receive tons of emails from parents whose children needed medical cannabis for seizures. I still receive an overwhelming amount of emails from our veterans suffering from PTSD,” Alcala said.

What opponents say

Katie Patterson, a representative for Stand Up for Kansas who spent more than 18 years with the Kansas Bureau of Investigation, said she opposes the bills and that crime has increased in states where marijuana has been legalized in some form.

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“I’ve seen firsthand how substance use, abuse and addiction impact lives, families, communities and create strains on criminal justice systems,” Patterson said.

Patterson said the FDA should serve as the standard for what qualifies as medicine.

“Medicines should be based on clinical data and robust amounts of research demonstrating medical efficacy for treatment of certain conditions,” Patterson said.

She also said increased access leads to increased use and warned of consequences for the state’s mental health system.

“We in this state have a mental health crisis. This is a policy conversation that would further exacerbate that crisis that we currently have on our hands with treatment in Kansas,” Patterson said.

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What happens next

The bills were referred to the House Federal and State Affairs Committee. No hearing has been scheduled. Supporters said they do not expect the bills to advance this session but said they intend to continue raising the issue.



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