Tonight was a solid night for Rajah Caruth. The NASCAR Truck Series driver is advancing to the Round of 8 in the playoffs. Caruth came home with a P7 finish after a tough qualifying session and starting in the middle of the field.

Rajah Caruth is having a good season this year in the Truck Series. He won at Las Vegas earlier this year. In the last seven races, Caruth has two top-5 finishes and three top-10s, including a pole award.

While he isn’t a world-beater right now, Caruth has been building a solid season. He enters the Round of 8 under the cutline. Talladega being the first race of the round will not make things easier.

After the Kansas race, Rajah Caruth spoke with Bob Pockrass of FOX Sports about his night.

“Yeah I had a good start to the race and then it just stepped out on me. That’s literally the last two races here, I’ve just been really loose the start of the race and kind of in traffic,” Caruth explained. “I don’t know if it’s something I got to do with my tire prep or what. It could have been worse, but I just managed it kind of the best I could and we made the most of our night.

“I’m thankful for my HendrickCars.com group for believing in me. It was fun there I think I learned a lot trying to just deal with the balance of my truck. Definitely you know I feel like I can make speed here I just haven’t been able to finish that well. So, overall a great night, well not a great night, but thanks to Mr. H and Mrs. Linda, Jeff and TJ, and the men and women at Ally Financial, Team Chevy.”

Rajah Caruth battles his way to Round of 8

As Rajah Caruth said to Pockrass, his truck got loose early in the race. He had to collect himself and be patient with his truck. It paid off, too. These top-10 finishes add up and will help him move through the playoffs.

Eight points under the cutline puts Caruth in a decent position. No one wants to have to overcome any deficit, but it could be much worse than just single-digit points. Corey Heim is +38 to the line and Christian Eckes is +29. But after that, drivers are pretty vulnerable.

Ty Majeski is only 14 points to the good, and Nick Sanchez is only eight points up on Caruth for the fourth spot in the playoffs. Only four will advance after Dega, Miami, and Martinsville. So, avoiding mistakes will be crucial. Heim is coming off a win tonight and has a lot of momentum.

Talladega can make or break a driver in the Round of 8. An early DNF or poor finish will put a driver almost into a must-win position immediately. Rajah Caruth is hoping to keep his solid streak of races going so he doesn’t fall victim to the superspeedway trap.

Game Odds

NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

Moneyline: TCU +105; Kansas -125
Spread: Kansas -2
Total Points: 60

A matchup between teams that are winless against the spread this season (a combined 0-8) in a neutral site NFL stadium is about as much of a toss up as you can get. The Horned Frogs got demolished as a one-point favorite vs. SMU last week while the Jayhawks are coming off a four-point loss as one-point underdogs at West Virginia. This game opened with KU as a one-point favorite, but after receiving a reported 93% of money wagered the Jayhawks have ticked up slightly to this -2 position. It’s the same case for the over-under point total, with money pouring in on the over given these teams prolific offenses and struggling defenses, pushing the number up to an even 60. This would be the first time TCU would enter the game vs. Kansas as an underdog as a member of the Big 12, with the Frogs last covering in 2020 in Lawrence as 23-point favorites. For Saturday’s contest in Kansas City, both teams offensive strengths match perfectly against the other’s defensive weakness, which could lead to a high scoring affair.

Player Projections

Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change

TCU

Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 303.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 56.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 36.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 75.5
Cam Cook, Rush Yards: 52.5

Hoover has cleared this number by a wide margin in each game vs. FBS opponents this season and it appears to be the only way TCU can gain any positive yards this season. Jack Bech has been the breakout and top target on the season, but Richardson and Williams have also had major games this season, making it possible all three could hit the over if TCU again has to play catch up to stay in the game on Saturday. The Jayhawks sport the best cornerback duo the Frogs have faced yet this season, with Cobee Bryant & Mello Dotson set to lock things down on the outside, potentially preventing another smash spot from Hoover. As for Cook, it’s hard to believe this number is still over 50 and it’s harder to believe he gets there on Saturday after having just 59 total yards over the last two games combined, however it feels like he is due for a breakout eventually, right?

Kansas

Jalon Daniels, Pass Yards: 186.5
Jalon Daniels, Rush Yards: 29.5
Lawrence Arnold, Receiving Yards: 44.5
Luke Grimm, Receiving Yards: 60.5
Quentin Skinner, Receiving Yards: 31.5
Devin Neal, Rush Yards: 109.5

There is no number high enough for rushing yards against the TCU defense in 2024. Devin Neal is one of the best RBs in the nation and Jalon Daniels remains one of the most dynamic playmaking QBs. Neal is a -200 favorite at DraftKings to rush for 110+ yards, so hop on that number at PrizePicks while you can because Neal is sure to find ample open grass in Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday. The passing game is a different story in this one, and while the Horned Frogs have surrendered big days to big time wideouts, this game will be about an excellent rushing team up against a very bad rush defense. Daniels is averaging 156.5 pass yards per game and has not yet surpassed this number this season. Daniels is plenty talented and capable of pushing all these receivers over the number on Saturday, but there may just be little reason to air it out if Neal continues to rush over six yards per carry.

A pair of ranked Big 12 rivals both coming off losses and 0-1 in conference play look to get back on track this weekend as No. 23 Kansas State welcomes No. 20 Oklahoma State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Kansas State had a 71 percent chance of victory heading into BYU, but saw those chances evaporate as it allowed 31 unanswered points on the road and suffered 3 turnovers, coming into this week ranking just 117th nationally in passing production per game.

Oklahoma State is posting almost 310 yards in the air per game, but ranks 115th out of 134 FBS teams in rushing capacity, as reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon failed to rush for 50 yards in each of his last 3 games and is averaging just over 3 yards per carry in that time.

The Cowboys are 2-1 against the spread against FBS opponents this season, while the Wildcats are 1-2 ATS in that category coming into this weekend.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should be watching out for as Kansas State and Oklahoma State square off, along with our updated prediction for the game.

1. Run the ball. Ollie Gordon is college football’s reigning Doak Walker Award winner but has been missing in action this season, with 258 total yards and 4 touchdowns, was held to under 3 yards per carry the last 2 games, and is yet to run for 50 yards against an FBS defense.

He’s yet to adapt as opponents load the box against him, and the Wildcats could present another formidable challenge. They rank 16th in FBS in rush defense allowing just over 83 yards per game and are 17th in surrendering just 2.75 yards per carry from opposing backs.

2. Ditto for K-State. The story is different, albeit mixed, for Kansas State, which boasts a top-15 rushing attack behind D.J. Giddens and Dylan Edwards. As a whole, the team is posting 6.5 yards per attempt, 6th nationally. 

One area of relative weakness? They have just 4 total rushing TDs this year, in part because the offense is a middling 62nd in third-down production, moving the chains on 42 percent of attempts.

3. Pokes can sling it. As the Cowboys’ ground game has stalled, Alan Bowman is picking up the slack, leading an aerial attack that is 15th in passing production, averaging almost 311 yards per game and is hitting nearly 63 percent of his attempts.

But the Wildcats could throw him out of rhythm, boasting a strong front seven alignment that leads the Big 12 with 12 sacks and 31 tackles for loss. K-State’s 7.8 TFLs per game are 14th in FBS, and Brendan Mott is 12th in the country with 4 sacks and 4 QB hurries.

Most analytical models are giving the Cowboys a slight edge over the Wildcats this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oklahoma State is projected to win the game in the majority 52.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Kansas State as the expected winner in the remaining 47.1 percent of sims.

The model projects a very close game, as Oklahoma State is expected to be 1 point better than Kansas State on the same field.

More … Cowboys vs. Wildcats: What the analytics say

Kansas State is a 4.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 57.5 points per game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at +164 and for Kansas State at -200 to win outright.

In a game loaded with early Big 12 title implications, it should come down to whichever team runs the ball better and owns the time of possession battle.

Bowman has the arm and the receivers to credibly test the Wildcats’ secondary, but the lack of a rushing threat in the loss to Utah shows that good front sevens can contain Gordon and reduce the Cowboys’ offense to one dimension.

Kansas State’s capacity to limit ground gains up front combined with its potent rushing capacity should be enough to pull this out, but it will be close.

College Football HQ picks …

More … Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert model

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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