URBANDALE, Iowa — Wrapping up his speech here the other day before a modest audience made up mostly of seniors, Donald Trump Jr. sounded a note of urgency about the increasingly dire weather forecast for Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucuses.
Iowa
Opinion | Trump’s toughest opponent in Iowa isn’t DeSantis, Haley or the weather
His father’s campaign team is well aware that the former president is up against two sets of challengers in the first contest of the 2024 campaign season.
There are the other candidates, sure. But probably more formidable for Trump to beat are the sky-high expectations that have been set. His lead in the latest pre-caucus polls has grown to more than 30 percentage points, far greater than has ever been seen before in a competitive GOP contest this close to the caucus date.
One thing that has always been true about Iowa’s quirky process for selecting presidential candidates is that you can’t really tell what is real and what is illusion until neighbors actually gather in more than 1,600 high school gyms and libraries and churches across the state.
Going into the Iowa caucuses, part of the ritual is for campaigns to thump their chests — bragging about how many doors they have knocked on, how many Iowans have signed cards promising to caucus for them, how much of the state they have covered.
Or they crow about the enticements they are offering to assure supporters will show up for them. In 2008, early Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton’s operation handed out more than 600 snow shovels, apparently not understanding that it is the rare Iowan who doesn’t already have their own.
Her campaign that year also spent $95,000 on caucus-night deli sandwiches. A huge pile of them sat untouched on a table at the caucus I attended that year. Clinton, for all her largesse, came in a disappointing third to her fellow senators Barack Obama and John Edwards.
This year, the candidate who most closely followed what was considered the traditional Iowa formula is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He has visited every one of the state’s 99 counties. His super PAC claims to have knocked on more than 900,000 doors. He has lined up the most high-profile endorsements, including popular Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.
At a breakfast hosted by Bloomberg News on Friday, DeSantis deputy campaign manager David Polyansky said: “There won’t be a single Iowa Republican that turns out that night that will not either have met Ron DeSantis or had the opportunity to meet him. Ask him a question, take a picture with him, shake his hand. Not a one.”
Yet the traditional Iowa formula seems to have lost its power. Trump hasn’t done any of that personal, ground-level campaigning. And it will surprise no one if former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley — who has had a far lighter footprint here, though she tells audiences, “I have been campaigning all over this sweet state for eleven months” — noses ahead of DeSantis on caucus night.
The weather, however, makes caucus night more unpredictable than ever. Never before has Mother Nature scrambled everyone’s plans with such fury as she has this year. A blizzard, below-zero temperatures, and fierce winds forced all three of the leading campaigns to cancel in-person events they had planned for the final weekend. Current forecasts for caucus night have temperatures the National Weather Service has called “life-threatening” getting even colder.
There are two schools of thought about what all of this means. One, which the Trump campaign is counting on, holds that the former president’s supporters are the most devoted, and therefore most likely to brave the elements on his behalf. The other, which his competitors are hoping will be true, is that Trump’s lead may have lulled his backers — which, polls suggest, disproportionately include people who have never caucused before — into complacency, to the point where they feel their vote won’t make much of a difference, so why not stay in their toasty homes and watch the results on television.
Among the audience at Don Jr.’s appearance in Urbandale was Gary Leffler, 62, who was proudly wearing a white cap embroidered in big gold letters: TRUMP CAUCUS CAPTAIN. He will be running things for the former president at Precinct 118 in West Des Moines.
When I asked Leffler how he plans to assure people show up for his candidate, he showed me an eight-page list of what he said were 160 names and said he is calling all of them. So far, Leffler said, he is hearing that nothing is going to keep them away from the Learning Resource Center where Precinct 118 will meet.
Except for one couple, both of whom are 94 years old. One of them told Leffler, “I ain’t going out in that.”
Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers assesses the Cyclones’ spring
Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers assesses the Cyclones’ spring
Spring commencement arrives at Iowa State this weekend, with a whole new generation of Cyclones set to get their diplomas and move on to the next things in their lives.
The options and choices will set their path for, potentially, the years and decades ahead.
Which got me thinking about the choices and circumstances of this school year that came for Iowa State athletics. There were no shortages of inflection points at which, it seems, programs and an entire athletics department pivoted to new directions.
Let’s explore.
What if Iowa State had hired Taylor Mouser as head football coach?
This seems to be the most discussed “Sliding Doors” moment for Iowa State football fans regarding head coach Matt Campbell’s departure to Penn State. And with good reason. It’s the most obvious, could have had the most immediate impact on the program and would have been largely seen as a continuation of the most successful run in school history.
Would promoting the Iowa State offensive coordinator, though, have been the right move?
If you assume a best-case scenario in which some of the star Cyclone players on offense – think Rocco Becht, Ben Brahmer, Carson Hansen, etc. – stay at Iowa State and a bulk of the coaching staff does as well, there are still likely defections that weaken the roster. Nothing like we saw back in December, but, still, there would be holes – and Campbell’s shoes – to fill by a first-time head coach taking over for a legend.
The calculation, as I see it, has to be – does the Year 1 continuity and relative stability gained by hiring Mouser provide for better long-term results than hiring Jimmy Rogers, who has the benefit of head-coaching experience?
It certainly would have made the fan base feel better back in December, but would it have positioned Iowa State to have better results in 2027 and beyond?
The roster almost certainly would have been “better” in 2026 if Iowa State retained Mouser, but would that have created a more solid foundation for the future or just delayed decay?
This “What If” becomes a lot less intricate and interesting if Rogers just wins a ton this fall and going forward.
What if Penn State had been able to hire Kalani Sitake as its football coach?
I think this is the most interesting question on the list.
By reports, Penn State was on the verge of hiring Sitake from BYU when the Cougars’ boosters – led by the Crumbl Cookie fortune – banded together to put together a financial package to keep Sitake in Provo.
What if they hadn’t, though?
Sitake goes to Penn State, and Dec. 5, 2025, is an uneventful day in Iowa State history rather than one of its most feverish.
But … what happens a few weeks later when Sherrone Moore is fired at Michigan?
Rather than plucking 66-year-old Kyle Whittingham from Utah/forced retirement, do the Wolverines try to make a Michigan Man out of an Ohioan? Does Campbell inherit the seat of Bo Schembechler?
And, for the sake of this thought exercise, if Campbell did move to Ann Arbor, does the timing of that decision change athletics director Jamie Pollard’s options and calculus about Iowa State’s opening? Is Jimmy Rogers still available? Or would he have taken a different opening or opted not to leave Pullman at that later date? Is Mouser the answer in this scenario?
Or is the Buckeye State distaste for the state Up North too much and Campbell returns for Year 11 at Iowa State?
Addy Brown on what went wrong in Iowa State’s loss to Syracuse
Iowa State’s Addy Brown talks about her team’s struggles in a loss to Syracuse in the NCAA Tournament.
What if Addy Brown doesn’t get hurt?
Iowa State women’s basketball was 14-0 on Jan. 4 when it played Baylor in Waco, and the season felt sure to realize the potential that was clear before it started with one of coach Bill Fennelly’s best rosters.
The Cyclones, though, returned home with their first loss and with Addy Brown sidelined with a back injury.
Four more losses in a row followed, and when Brown returned to the floor after six weeks, the Cyclones’ season was floundering.
They salvaged an NCAA Tournament bid, but a first-round exit gave way to a roster collapse with nine players – including Brown and superstar Audi Crooks – leaving via the transfer portal, putting Fennelly’s tenure and future under fire.
If Brown doesn’t get hurt – or just isn’t out as long – does that change the trajectory of the season? The offseason? And what the eventual end of Fennelly’s Iowa State career looks like?
What if Joshua Jefferson doesn’t roll his ankle?
The most recent “What If” I think is also the most straightforward.
If Jefferson’s ankle doesn’t roll in the early minutes of Iowa State’s first-round NCAA Tournament blowout win over Tennessee State, I think the Cyclones get a long second weekend in Chicago, but the Final Four drought probably remains intact.
Jefferson’s rebounding and offensive impact are, I think, enough to give the Cyclones the edge against Tennessee, but Michigan, the Cyclones’ would-be Elite Eight opponent, was just a juggernaut.
I’m not sure even a full-strength Iowa State team would have had more than a puncher’s chance. The Wolverines were just one of the best college basketball teams we’ve seen over the last few decades.
Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has covered the Cyclones for the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune since 2012. Contact him at thines@amestrib.com or (515) 284-8000. Follow him on X at @TravisHines21.
One of the top Iowa high school football prospects in the state has made his college decision official.
Iowa City Regina High School senior-to-be Tate Wallace has announced he has verbally committed to the University of Minnesota in the Big Ten Conference. Wallace picked the Golden Gophers and head coach PJ Fleck over a finalists Notre Dame, Nebraska, Arizona, Arizona State and Wisconsin.
Wallace narrowed down his list of schools to six at the end of April before making his final decision.
Iowa City Regina Football Standout Tate Wallace Ranked As No. 2 Overall Prospect In Iowa High School Football
The 6-foot-2, 226-pound linebacker is considered the No. 2 overall prospect in the state of Iowa for high school football, and is the No. 21 linebacker in the Class of 2027, according to 247Sports.
In the 247Sports Composite rankings, Wallace is No. 2 in Iowa high school football, No. 29 at linebacker and No. 359 for the Class of 2027.
Along With Minnesota, Tate Wallace Currently Holds Offers From Schools Such As Arizona, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Iowa State
Wallace currently holds 16 total offers including from the previously mentioned Minnesota, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Arizona, Arizona State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue, Tennessee, West Virginia, Eastern Michigan, Miami (Ohio), Toledo, UNLV, North Dakota and North Dakota State.
As a junior, Wallace registered almost 50 tackles on defense, with 29 of them being counted as solo stops. He had 18 tackles for loss, 8.5 quarterback sacks and forced two fumbles, as Iowa City Regina advanced to the state championship game of the Iowa High School Athletic Association State Football Championships.
Future Minnesota Golden Gopher Has Been Key Two-Way Starter For Regals
Wallace also hauled in 40 passes for 611 yards with 10 receiving touchdowns on offense for the Regals. As a two-way player for Iowa City Regina during his sophomore season, Wallace had 27.5 tackles, including 16 solo stops, four tackles for loss and a quarterback sack, adding 51 receptions for 752 yards and eight touchdowns.
Back in March, Wallace announced seven spring visits to Notre Dame, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas State and Arizona State. He also visited Tennessee this past fall, taking in an SEC contest with the Volunteers.
Along with his success on the football field, Wallace helped lead the Regals to the Iowa High School Athletic Association Boys State Basketball Tournament this past winter. He earned High School on SI all-state honors in the process.
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