Iowa
Iowa men’s basketball: Four bold predictions for Hawkeyes’ 2024-25 season
Video: Fran McCaffery reacts to exhibition win over Minnesota Duluth
Fran McCaffery discusses a variety of topics after Iowa’s 102-81 exhibition win over Minnesota Duluth.
IOWA CITY — The Iowa men’s basketball regular season is on the verge of getting underway.
After beating Minnesota Duluth, 102-81, in an exhibition, the Hawkeyes’ next contest is more than just a dress rehearsal. That comes Monday with the regular season opener against Texas A&M-Commerce.
There are not exactly high expectations surrounding this Iowa team. The Hawkeyes were picked to finish 11th out of 18 teams in the Big Ten by a preseason media poll. Internally, though, there is optimism.
“People are confident,” Payton Sandfort said at Big Ten Media Days. “Anyone that has been around practice this year thinks this team is special. The energy is different. The intensity is different. The attention to detail is different. I think it’s going to be a great year.”
To skeptics, Sandfort’s claim could be viewed as a bold prediction.
In that spirit, here are some bold takes ahead of the Hawkeyes’ 2024-25 season.
Iowa basketball’s Josh Dix will make an All-Big Ten team
This wouldn’t be that bold of a prediction if the conference hadn’t just added four new programs. But now with 18 teams, earning a spot on the All-Big Ten first, second, or third teams (more than 15 players can make them in total) becomes even more difficult.
That said, Dix should be considered a dark horse.
The flashes that Dix showed as a freshman became even more prominent as a sophomore. Last season, there was a phenomenal three-game stretch during Big Ten play in which he averaged 21.3 points on 68.4% from the field and 61.5% from deep.
It’s unrealistic to expect Dix to sustain those numbers across an entire season, but it’s one of the many signs pointing to him being capable of becoming a premier player in the league. Dix, a highly efficient scorer on all three levels, also adds value on the defensive end. Now as a junior, Dix is stepping into an even larger role, meaning the opportunity is there for him to put up big numbers.
He scored 22 points against Minnesota Duluth on 9-of-12 from the field, including 2-of-4 from deep.
“I think the biggest thing he’s done, he’s gotten really aggressive,” Sandfort said of Dix after the contest. “He always had that. He was always showing it in practice but would be just kinda passive when we got into games… Now he has the confidence that he can dominate these teams. I’m excited to see the year he has.”
Video: Payton Sandfort leads Iowa with 23 points in exhibition win
Payton Sandfort discusses a variety of topics after Iowa’s exhibition win over Minnesota Duluth.
Hawkeyes’ Brock Harding will finish top-5 in the Big Ten in assists per game
Harding’s sensational passing ability, coupled with Iowa’s offensive firepower makes this seem like a real possibility.
His ability to share the rock was on display as a freshman. Harding’s 2.6 assists per game in limited playing time equates to 9.7 when extrapolated to a per 40-minute average.
It’s unreasonable to expect him to average 40 minutes per game as a sophomore, but he is primed to get substantially more playing time, meaning last season’s assist numbers are likely to go up. With Dix, Owen Freeman and Sandfort all having the potential to be high-volume scorers, Harding shouldn’t have a shortage of opportunities.
Even in a Minnesota Duluth exhibition that wasn’t his best performance — Harding scored two points on 1-of-7 from the field — he still recorded six assists.
Northwestern’s Boo Buie finished last season fifth in the Big Ten in assists per game with five. Getting in that neighborhood doesn’t seem like a long shot for Harding.
Pryce Sandfort will be Iowa men’s basketball’s top bench scorer
There are probably four realistic options to be Iowa’s leading bench scorer. It could be either of the transfers, Seydou Traore or Drew Thelwell. Freshman Cooper Koch deserves to be in the conversation, as well.
But Pryce Sandfort might be the one to earn that title.
After an inconsistent freshman season, word from inside the program has been pointedly positive about Pryce Sandfort. At Iowa men’s basketball media day, coach Fran McCaffery remarked that Pryce Sandfort was “shooting the ball at an incredibly high clip on a consistent basis.”
The exhibition against Minnesota Duluth showed how quickly Sandfort can score in bunches. He finished the first half without a point but scored 11 in the second half. He also played the most minutes out of Iowa’s reserves.
At 6-foot-7, Pryce Sandfort can be a lethal 3-point shooter, but his offensive repertoire isn’t limited to that. With Iowa needing some scoring outside of Payton Sandfort, Freeman and Dix, Pryce Sandfort has the skill set to deliver.
Iowa Hawkeyes will have its best 3-point percentage since the 2020-21 season
The Hawkeyes shot 38.6% as a team in 2020-21. Four players shot 39% or better from deep, including three that shot at least 44%.
Since then, Iowa’s team 3-point percentages are as follows:
- 2021-22: 36.3%
- 2022-23: 34%
- 2023-24: 35.1%
Iowa has a chance to shoot better in 2024-25 than it has in each of the last three seasons.
The Hawkeyes saw the departures of some lower percentage shooters, including Tony Perkins (29.9%) and Patrick McCaffery (31.2%).
Two of the players expected to be among the highest-volume shooters for Iowa this season are more than capable 3-point shooters in Dix and Payton Sandfort. Pryce Sandfort and Cooper Koch are known to be good shooters, as well.
There are a handful of other X-factors.
Harding shot 37.5% as a freshman even before adjusting his shooting form this offseason. Thelwell is a career 34.8% 3-point shooter. Freeman didn’t attempt many 3-pointers last season but has worked on expanding his game this offseason and could take more as a sophomore. Ladji Dembele and Traore can contribute from beyond the arc, though they haven’t proven to shoot a high percentage yet.
Follow Tyler Tachman on X @Tyler_T15, contact via email at ttachman@gannett.com
Iowa
Iowa 95, Utah 88: A Balanced Comeback
Iowa 95, Utah 88: A Balanced Comeback
Nine months ago, Utah ended Iowa’s 2023-24 season in the second round of the NIT. Saturday night, Iowa faced off with Utah again at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and came away with a very solid 95-88 win over the Utes. The Hawkeyes used a dominant second half and a balanced scoring effort from the starting lineup to earn the victory.
Here are three takeaways from the game.
1. The Big Finish
Finishing strong hasn’t always been a strength for this particular Iowa team. The Hawkeyes couldn’t make enough shots (or get enough stops) in their neutral-site loss to Utah State last month and ran out of steam after playing very well against Iowa State for 35 minutes a few weeks ago.
Saturday, Iowa trailed 40-36 at halftime and was down 11 early in the second half after conceding a 9-2 run to the Utes out of the break. The Hawkeyes caught fire after that, rattling off 25 points in the next seven minutes of game action to tie the score at 63-all.
Down the stretch, it was the Hawkeyes who were making shots and getting stops. Iowa outscored Utah 20-13 after the game was tied at 75 with 6:59 to play. Iowa scored 59 points in the second half (to 48 from Utah), led by 16 points from Payton Sandfort, who shot 5-of-8 from the floor and was perfect at the free throw line (6-of-6).
Notably, Iowa scored 59 points in the second half despite shooting just 4-of-6 from 3-point range. After attempting 14 three-pointers in the opening 20 minutes (and making five of them), Iowa adjusted on offense in the second half, attacking the rim more and getting higher-percentage shots — and more trips to the free throw line, where the Hawkeyes went 17-of-24 after the break.
“We were moving the ball and driving the ball [in the second half],” Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said after the win. “We settled too much in the first half. Payton said it [and] he was right, we hit a couple early and started settling.”
“[Then] they don’t have to play defense, they don’t get tired, they come down and they carve you up, they run good stuff. So we kept the ball moving the ball side to side, driving the ball, intelligent screening, back-cuts, that was the difference in the game.”
The sellout crowd at the Pentagon had a noticeable (and unsurprising) Hawkeye flavor, which helped fuel Iowa’s second half comeback. That, as well as the veteran core of this Iowa roster that’s had plenty of experience in these situations — both good and bad — at this point.
“Veteran guys,” said McCaffery on how Iowa was able to turn the game around in the second half. “We’ve got good players, we’ve got good ball-handlers, guys who’ve been through it, [the] crowd was great. I think [it was] a combination of all those things.”
2. Drew Thelwell’s Spark
One player who provided a notable spark in Iowa’s comeback effort was senior guard Drew Thelwell, making his third consecutive start. Thelwell didn’t make a basket in the second half — didn’t even attempt one, in fact — but he scored seven points on 7-of-8 shooting at the free throw line.
Thelwell drew five fouls (more than anyone else on the Iowa roster in the second half), although a few of those came late when the Utes were attempting to extend the game. Still, Thelwell’s ability to attack the defense and the energy he brought were key factors in Iowa’s comeback win.
“[His energy] is infectious,” McCaffery said after the game. “Everyone else goes with him, Brock [Harding]’s kind of that way as well. The energy in the building was phenomenal. Drew was right in the middle of that. His defense, drawing six fouls, those are stats that are critical to a team’s ability to win. You do that by driving the ball and drawing fouls and that’s what he did.”
McCaffery also expanded on what he was looking for when he was pursuing Thelwell out of the transfer portal earlier this year and what he’s brought to this Iowa team. “I was looking for a veteran point guard, who could run a team, who could play off the ball and score, guard his man,” he explained.
“I noticed immediately that this kid could play defense, and wants to play defense and wants to play at both ends, that he understands how to engineer a victory,” McCaffery said. “Drew Thelwell is a winner, that’s what I was looking for and that’s what we got.”
The man that Thelwell displaced in the starting lineup — Ladji Dembele — also had some key plays to spark Iowa’s comeback bid. After scoring zero points and grabbing just one rebound in the first half, Dembele had five points, three rebounds, and a steal after intermission. His two baskets came during Iowa’s surge after falling behind by 11 and helped cut a 7-point deficit to just two.
More importantly, he helped keep Iowa afloat in the second half, with Owen Freeman bolted to the bench with foul trouble (Freeman picked up three fouls in the second half and played under five minutes total after halftime). Dembele played 14:10 in the second half and he finished with a +13 plus-minus rating in those minutes, the highest of any Iowa player in the second half.
McCaffery praised the effort from Dembele and fellow sub Pryce Sandfort. “They’re just rock solid, both of them. All they care about is winning. Pryce, defensively, was tremendous. Ladji, boy was he great. [He] had his two big hoops. But then defensively, on the glass, [he had a] big time offensive rebound late, [a] couple in-traffic rebounds, just his awareness defensively was great.”
3. Balance Carries The Day
Recent years have seen multiple standout individual players that served as the focal points for their respective Iowa teams — Luka Garza, followed by Keegan Murray, and then Kris Murray. Those players were superstars at the college level, racking up All-Big Ten honors, winning Big Ten Player of the Year awards, and vying (or winning, in Garza’s case) for national honors as well.
There isn’t a player quite like that on this Iowa roster — but at its best, this is a team that has a lot of depth and scoring balance, with multiple players that can score and pass and put pressure on a defense. Saturday night saw them at something pretty close to their best, especially in the furious second half comeback effort.
All five Iowa starters finished in double figures in scoring, led by Payton Sandfort with 24 points and a game-high 8 rebounds. Freeman finished second on the team with 16 points, despite missing 75% of the second half with foul trouble. “Owen was really on his way to a big-time game, I felt bad when he got in foul trouble like that,” McCaffery said after the game. Freeman finished with 16 points and 6 rebounds.
Josh Dix and Drew Thelwell each added 15 points, with 10 of Dix’s points coming in the second half. Dix did his damage inside the arc in this game, going 7-of-9 on two-point shots and attempting just one three.
Finally, Brock Harding finished with 12 points, all in the second half. After going 0-for-5 in the first half, Harding went 4-of-8 in the second half, including 2-of-2 from deep. His first three gave Iowa its first lead of the second half at 68-67 and his second triple pushed Iowa’s lead to 88-80 with three minutes to play.
When Iowa is moving the ball well, setting screens, and attacking the rim like the offense was in the second half, this becomes a very difficult team to defend because there’s no one player that defenses can key on and try to slow down. Maintaining that focus and that aggressive mindset on the offensive end was key to Iowa’s win on Saturday — maintaining those same things over the next two-and-a-half months will be key to Iowa’s success in the Big Ten.
NEXT: Iowa finishes off non-conference play with a home game against New Hampshire on December 30 (6 PM CT, BTN).
Iowa
Utah tries to make it three straight against Iowa: MBB Game Preview
Utah and Iowa will face off in a compelling rematch just nine months after their battle in the National Invitational Tournament (NIT), where the Utes secured a 91-82 victory. This non-conference clash marks an important point in the season for both programs, as Utah (8-2) hits the road following a six-game homestand, while Iowa (8-3) looks to build on their recent momentum. The game will take place at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, a neutral site far from Iowa’s usual home at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Both teams enter this matchup in solid form. Utah has won two straight, including a dominant 89-59 win over Florida A&M, where they saw significant contributions from their bench. Mason Madsen and Mike Sharavjamts each posted 15 points in that contest, demonstrating the Utes’ depth. Meanwhile, Iowa comes off their most commanding performance of the season, a 104-57 rout of New Orleans. Five Hawkeyes scored in double figures, with Owen Freeman tying his career high of 22 points. This sets the stage for what promises to be a competitive showdown between two high-scoring teams, both eager to build their résumés before entering conference play.
Battle of the Floor Generals
One of the most intriguing storylines heading into the game is the point guard duel between Utah’s Miro Little and Iowa’s Brock Harding. Both sophomores have been instrumental in orchestrating their respective offenses. Harding, averaging 9.8 points and 6.2 assists per game, ranks 16th nationally in assists. His ability to control the tempo and facilitate scoring opportunities has been vital to Iowa’s success, as they rank third in the nation with 20 assists per game.
On the other side, Utah leads the country in assists, with 21 per contest, thanks in large part to Little’s contributions (5.4 assists per game). His size advantage over Harding—nearly 30 pounds—could be a key factor. Little’s physicality and ability to drive the lane will test Harding’s defensive abilities. For Iowa, limiting Little’s impact will be essential, as Utah’s offense flows through him. Conversely, Utah’s defense will need to focus on containing Harding’s playmaking to disrupt Iowa’s offensive rhythm. With both teams ranking in the top 10 nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio, the game may ultimately hinge on which point guard takes better care of the ball.
Slowing Down Iowa’s Twin Towers
Iowa’s offense is powered by forwards Owen Freeman and Payton Sandfort, who form a formidable frontcourt duo. Freeman, a dominant presence in the paint at 6’10, leads the team with 17.2 points per game and shoots an impressive 66% from the field. Sandfort, standing at 6’8, complements Freeman’s inside game with perimeter shooting, having already knocked down 29 three-pointers this season. Their contrasting styles make them difficult to defend, contributing to Iowa’s status as the 11th-highest scoring team in the country, averaging 87.2 points per game.
Utah’s defense will have to rise to the occasion, with Lawson Lovering tasked with handling Freeman inside. Sharavjamts’ size and versatility should allow him to match up with Sandfort, but Utah will likely need to employ frequent defensive switches to counter Iowa’s efforts to create mismatches. Rotational defense and contesting shots at the perimeter will be crucial for the Utes.
Building Momentum
Utah’s leading scorer, Gabe Madsen, continues to be a focal point for the Utes, averaging 19.8 points per game, good for 19th in the nation. His scoring versatility mirrors Sandfort’s, making him a potential game-changer in this matchup. Utah’s ability to score from both inside and beyond the arc has propelled them to 14th in the nation in scoring at 86.6 points per game.
A victory over Iowa would give Utah their first marquee win of the season, providing a significant confidence boost as they head into Big 12 play. With a tough matchup against Baylor looming on New Year’s Eve, this game represents a pivotal opportunity for the Utes to establish momentum and strengthen their standing in the national landscape.
Iowa
PREVIEW: Iowa MBB vs Utah
PREVIEW: Iowa MBB vs Utah
WHO: Utah Utes (8-2)
WHEN: 5:00 PM CT (Saturday, December 21, 2024)
WHERE: Sanford Pentagon (Sioux Falls, SD)
TV: BTN (Chris Vosters and Shon Morris)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -1.5 (total of 163.5 points)
KENPOM: Iowa -3 (Iowa 58% chance of winning)
On Saturday, Iowa will face its final non-conference test of the season (though there’s still one more cupcake on the menu — a visit from New Hampshire on December 30), and play the third of its three neutral-site games in the non-conference portion of the schedule. The Hawkeyes prevailed over Washington State in Moline, but fell to Utah State in Kansas City; now they’ll try to take down Utah in the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6’0″, 165 lbs; 9.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 6.0 apg; 49.3 FG%; 45.5 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6’6″, 210 lbs; 13.4 ppg; 3.9 rpg; 2.9 apg; 51.3 FG%; 38.5 3FG%)
G Drew Thelwell (6’3″, 195 lbs; 8.4 ppg; 2.5 rpg; 3.3 apg; 52.2 FG%; 35.5%)
F Payton Sandfort (6’8″, 215 lbs; 16.4 ppg; 5.8 rpg; 4.0 apg; 38.6 FG%; 31.5 3FG%)
C Owen Freeman (6’10”, 245 lbs; 16.8 ppg; 7.0 rpg; 1.3 apg; 64.4 FG%; 37.5 3FG%)
Thelwell has started the last two games for Iowa and could be in line for a third-straight start, given the generally strong returns that have resulted from adding Thelwell to the starting lineup. It also wouldn’t be a shock to see Ladji Dembele return to the starting lineup, though, as the Utes boast some significant size in the front court (three likely starters 6’8″ or taller).
Otherwise, Iowa should have the full roster available for this game, aside from possibly Seydou Traore. Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery indicated during his Thursday media availability that he was “not too optimistic” about Traore being available for this game
PROJECTED UTAH STARTING LINEUP
G Miro Little (6’3″, 194 lbs; 8.4 ppg; 5.6 rpg; 5.4 apg; 37.5 FG%; 29.4 3FG%)
G Gabe Madsen (6’6″, 200 lbs; 19.8 ppg; 2.4 rpg; 2.4 apg; 45.8 FG%; 40.2 3FG%)
F Ezra Ausar (6’8″, 238 lbs; 11.1 ppg; 4.5 rpg; 0.8 apg; 57.4 FG%; 0.0 3FG%)
F Mike Sharavjamts (6’9″, 195 lbs; 8.1 ppg; 4.1 rpg; 3.3 apg; 49.3 FG%; 35.5 3FG%)
C Lawson Lovering (7’1″, 245 lbs; 11.4 ppg; 6.4 rpg; 2.2 apg; 65.8 FG%; 0.0 3FG%)
PREVIEW
It’s rare that Iowa sees the same non-conference opponent in consecutive seasons (outside of the annual date with Iowa State), but the Hawkeyes have some recent history with the Utes — Utah knocked Iowa out of the NIT in the second round last year, 91-82. Both teams have turned over the roster a bit since that game — Iowa returns three starters from that game, while the Utes have two returning starters from last year — but some of the most important faces should be familiar.
For the Utes, that starts with wing Gabe Madsen, who absolutely torched Iowa with 31 points in that NIT win last March, thanks to some blistering shooting from beyond the arc in that game (7-of-15). Madsen has been Utah’s top long-range shooter this season as well, as he leads the team in makes (39) and attempts (97) from three-point range and ranks second (40.2%) in percentage. He’s made at least two triples in every game this season, except for Utah’s 89-59 win over Florida A&M last week.
This year, Madsen has been joined at Utah by his twin brother, Mason, a transfer from Boston College. Mason Madsen has yet to start this season, but he’s still played heavy minutes (20.7 mpg) and been one of Utah’s top scorers (11.1 ppg). Like his brother, he’s also a crack shot from long range, making 31-of-68 (45.6%) attempts from outside the 3-point arc.
Three-point shooting is, unsurprisingly, a pretty big part of Utah’s offense. The Utes are shooting 38.2% from deep (38th nationally) and they get a lot of points from the three-point shot (39.1%, 30th) and take a lot of three-point attempts (47.4% of their field goals, 35th in three-point rate nationally). One interesting thing to watch: how Utah adjusts to the rims and the sight-lines at the Sanford Pentagon — we’ve seen teams struggle to shoot well from outside in past games in that arena.
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Shooting is a strength of Utah’s offense overall. The Utes have an effective FG% of 57.7%, which ranks 16th nationally. In addition to shooting 38.2% from 3-point range, Utah is also converting 58.1% of 2-point attempts (32nd). They only place on the floor where the Utes aren’t shooting well this year is the free throw line; the Utes are making just 64.2% of their attempts at the free throw line.
Otherwise, Utah doesn’t turn the ball over often (15.2%, 52nd) and they hit the offensive glass well (34.7%, 52nd). The biggest weakness of the Utah offense (outside of the poor free throw shooting) is their propensity to have shots blocked; the Utes have had 11.9% of their shots blocked by opponents this season.
Big men Lawson Lovering (7’1″, 245 lbs) and Ezra Aurar (6’8″, 238 lbs) are the other two Utes scoring in double figures this season. Lovering is averaging 11.4 ppg this season and does his damage near the rim (65.8% on shots inside the 3-point arc). He had six points and 10 rebounds against Iowa last year. Aurar, an East Carolina transfer, also does his damage in the painted area: he’s 35-of-50 (58.3%) on 2-point tries and 0-for-1 (0.0%) on three-point attempts
Utah has been generally sold on the defensive end this year as well, rating 58th in defensive efficiency this season. The Utes have been solid but not great at forcing turnovers (19.3% of opponent possessions, 108th nationally) or keeping teams off the free throw line (130th in opponent free throw rate). Their strengths on defense have been defending the glass and contesting shots.
The Utes rank 49th in keeping opponents away from the offensive glass (opponents have gotten offensive boards on just 25.9% of their possessions), but they’ve been especially good at contesting shots. Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of just 43.4% from the floor, which is the 10th best defensive effort nationally. Utah has been particularly good at contesting two-point attempts; opponents are converting those shots at 41.2% of 2-point shots this week.
Last year’s Iowa-Utah game was a high-tempo affair — 76 possessions — and this year’s game could be more of the same. Both Iowa and Utah like to push the pace and try to get out and run — the Hawkeyes rank 39th in tempo this season, while the Utes rank 46th.
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