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ESPN’s matchup predictor forecasts Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series

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ESPN’s matchup predictor forecasts Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series


After one week of football, ESPN’s matchup predictor has a full slate of data to add to its projections.

Using its Football Power Index, ESPN aims to create the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

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The FPI offers projections on a team’s projected win-loss total and its win out percentage. It also shares percentages on a team’s chance to reach six wins, win its conference, advance to the College Football Playoff, reach the national championship game and to win the national championship game.

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In its first 2023 FPI rankings in April, the Iowa Hawkeyes checked in at No. 37 nationally and were being given a 20.1% chance to win the Big Ten West. Then, in the FPI’s July update, the Hawkeyes were projected to finish 9-3 overall.

Now that the opening week is behind us, it’s time to turn our attention to the annual Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series. What does ESPN’s FPI think about the Hawkeyes following Week 1 and how is it projecting the rivalry date at Iowa State?

Iowa’s post-Week 1 profile

Zach Boyden-Holmes/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI: 5.5

National ranking: No. 44

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Change in ranking: Down six spots

Projected win-loss total: 7.0 wins-5.1 losses

Six wins %: 79.3%

Win division %: 16.7%

Win Big Ten %: 1.8%

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Iowa State’s post-Week 1 profile

Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN FPI: 6.3

National ranking: No. 41

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Change in ranking: No change

Projected win-loss total: 7.3 wins-4.8 losses

Six wins %: 70.3%

Win Big 12 %: 1.0%

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ESPN’s matchup predictor

Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

Projected Winner: Iowa State

Cyclones’ Win Probability: 57.4%

Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 42.6%

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Change since July: -4.8%

Analysis

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s matchup predictor was already favoring Iowa State before the season started, but the Week 1 results skewed things slightly more in the Cyclones’ direction.

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Even after some pronounced grumbling from Hawkeye fans about Iowa’s offense failing to build upon its initial two drives versus Utah State, there were signs early about what Iowa’s offense could look like with new starting quarterback Cade McNamara and his array of weapons. If they can figure the running game out, then it looks like the Hawkeyes have made legitimate strides in pass protection and in the pass game in general.

If not for several untimely drops by Hawkeye receivers, would the FPI metrics actually favor Iowa in this contest? At any rate, the model likes the Cyclones to hold serve at home.

Iowa State enters after toppling Northern Iowa 30-9 in its opener. Rocco Becht passed for just 113 yards and the Cyclones finished with just 250 yards of total offense. So, the ‘Clones have their own offensive issues.

In fact, Northern Iowa actually finished with more first downs, more total yards and more passing yards than Iowa State in the Cyclones’ season opener.

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Projected mark the rest of the way

(Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)

Beyond Iowa State, here’s the win probabilities ESPN’s FPI is currently giving the Hawkeyes the rest of the way versus its schedule after Week 1:

  • versus Western Michigan: 88.7%
  • at Penn State: 13.5%
  • versus Michigan State: 48.9%
  • versus Purdue: 69.5%
  • at Wisconsin: 30.2%
  • versus Minnesota: 51.5%
  • versus Northwestern: 73.9%
  • versus Rutgers: 71.9%
  • versus Illinois: 57.9%
  • at Nebraska: 51.5%

Contact/Follow us @HawkeyesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Iowa news, notes, and opinions.

Follow Josh on Twitter: @JoshOnREF

We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. Hawkeyes Wire operates independently, though, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.

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For the best local Iowa news, sports, entertainment and culture coverage, subscribe to The Des Moines Register.





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MN dog missing for 2 years found in Iowa

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MN dog missing for 2 years found in Iowa


The holidays are much brighter for a Twin Cities couple who were recently reunited with their mini goldendoodle. Their dog ran away more than two years ago.

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Corduroy the dog goes missing

The backstory: Some of you may remember when Corduroy went missing two years ago. His owners searched everywhere but no dog.  Their search ended last month when Corduroy was found in Iowa.

“I went up to him, bent down, and had him smell me, and I said, Do you remember me?,” said Chris Hoefer, Corduroy’s dad.

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October 22, 2022 is a day the couple will never forget.

“A friend of ours was dog sitting room. Our friend was taking him on a walk, and he was actually attacked by another dog. He broke loose of his collar and ran away,” said Hoefer.

Finding a missing dog

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What We Know: It’s a moment Chris Hoefer and his husband have been waiting for since Corduroy went missing. They’re now embracing the love and joy of having him again.

“He’s so comfortable with us, and he’s still just such a sweet and gentle dog that you know, the same dog that he was two years ago,” said Christiaan Montgomery, Corduroy’s dad.

What followed was nearly 500 tips and two years of searching led nowhere.  That is, until this one voicemail:

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We had a stray dog come in and we scanned for microchips, and checking that chip, it came registered to you.

It was on November 10 by the Dubuque Iowa Humane Society.

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“I was in disbelief. And I couldn’t believe that it was in Dubuque, Iowa, which is almost 300 miles away from here,” said Montgomery.

The couple took the drive, and Corduroy was able to come home for the holidays because of his microchip.

“I’ve been keeping his chip active since he went missing, just in the hopes that one day he might show up at a location where they had a scanner,” said Montgomery.

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What’s next: Lindsay Koopmann with The Retrievers Volunteer Last Dog Team says if you find a stray dog, get it scanned. So, dogs like Corduroy can enjoy Christmas with their parents. 

“There’s no way he ever would have made his way home here and be reunited without being microchipped,” said Koopmann.

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How To Watch Pop Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami, Bowl Game TV Schedule

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How To Watch Pop Tarts Bowl: Iowa State vs. Miami, Bowl Game TV Schedule


The Miami Hurricanes are back in action for the final time this season as they look to prove that they were one of the best teams in the league this season as they face the Iowa State Cyclones in the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando.

What is better for the Canes is that most of their starting player from this previous season will be participating instead of opting out.

That means the No. 1 offense in the country will be on full display with Heisman finalist and the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award Winner Cam Ward taking the field with All-American Xavier Restrepo and the rest of the electric offense for the Hurricanes.

This will be the final game of a great, yet disappointing season for the Hurricanes but the morale is high as year three of the Mario Cristobal Era comes to a close.

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Who: Miami vs. Iowa State

When: 3:30 p.m. on ABC

Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL

Series: First contest between the two teams.

Last time out, Miami: Miami came up short of reaching the ACC Championship Game after failing to stop the electric offense of the Syracuse Orange and losing 42-38 in the final game of the regular season.

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Last time out, Iowa State: The Cyclones got blown out in the Big 12 Championship game against winners Arizona State 45-19 as they struggled to find offense all game long.

Mon., Dec. 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA
11 a.m. on ESPN

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
2:30 p.m. on ESPN

Tues., Dec. 24

Hawai’i Bowl
South Florida vs. San Jose State
8 p.m. on ESPN

Thurs., Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Toledo
2 p.m. on ESPN

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Rate Bowl
Rutgers vs. Kansas State
5:30 p.m. on ESPN

68 Ventures Bowl
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green
9 p.m. on ESPN

Fri., Dec. 27

Armed Forces Bowl
Navy vs. Oklahoma
12 p.m. on ESPN

Birmingham Bowl
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Tech
3:30 p.m. on ESPN

Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech
7 p.m. on ESPN

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Holiday Bowl
Syracuse vs. Washington State
8 p.m. on Fox

Las Vegas Bowl
Texas A&M vs. USC
10:30 p.m. on ESPN

Sat., Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl
North Carolina vs. UConn
11 a.m. on ESPN

Pinstripe Bowl
Nebraska vs. Boston College
12 p.m. on ABC

New Mexico Bowl
TCU vs. Louisiana
2:15 p.m. on ESPN

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Pop-Tarts Bowl
Miami vs. Iowa State
3:30 p.m. on ABC

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Colorado State vs. Miami (OH)
4:30 p.m. on CW Network

Military Bowl
NC State vs. East Carolina
5:45 p.m. on ESPN

Alamo Bowl
Colorado vs. BYU
7:30 p.m. on ABC

Independence Bowl
Army vs. Louisiana Tech
9:15 p.m. on ESPN

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Mon., Dec. 30

Music City Bowl
Missouri vs. Iowa
2:30 p.m. on ESPN

Tues., Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Alabama vs. Michigan
12 p.m. on ESPN

Sun Bowl
Louisville vs. Washington
2 p.m. on CBS

Citrus Bowl
South Carolina vs. Illinois
3 p.m. on ABC

Texas Bowl
LSU vs. Baylor
3:30 p.m. on ESPN

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Thurs., Jan. 2

Gator Bowl
Ole Miss vs. Duke
7:30 p.m. on ESPN

Fri., Jan. 3

First Responder Bowl
North Texas vs. Texas State
4 p.m. on ESPN

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech
7:30 p.m. on ESPN

Sat., Jan. 4

Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo vs. Liberty
11 a.m. on ESPN2

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READ MORE FROM MIAMI HURRICANES ON SI:

2025 Miami Hurricanes Football Offseason Tracker: Coming and Going

Everything Miami Head Coach Mario Cristobal Said After Pop-Tart Bowl Announcement

Welcome to the ACC Bill Belichick, Mario Cristobal Time is Ticking: Just a Minute

Follow all social media platforms to stay up to date with everything Miami Hurricanes- TwitterFacebookInstagramYoutube, and BlueSky.





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Iowa Republicans set up a shell game to mask the costs of tax cuts | Opinion

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Iowa Republicans set up a shell game to mask the costs of tax cuts | Opinion



It is not “taxpayer relief” to use previously paid taxes to pay help pay for budget shortfalls caused by a “tax cut.”

This month, the state Revenue Estimating Conference reported new estimates showing Iowa revenue will drop by $602 million (6.2%) compared with fiscal year 2024. Further, state revenue is expected to drop by a further $428 million (4.7%) in fiscal year 2026, which begins July 1, 2025. Republicans attribute the fall in estimated revenue to the start of their 3.8% flat income tax rate next year. Republicans have promoted reducing the state income tax — which Sen. Jack Whitver derisively calls a “confiscation” — down to zero.

But Republicans have amassed a $2 billion budget surplus, $961 million in its reserve accounts, and $3.75 billion in the Taxpayer Relief Fund, which was supposed to be used to reduce taxes. All told, about $6.75 billion. One good question is: Why?

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Republicans enacted a long-term commitment to reduced revenues due to the flax tax at an extremely volatile time during and after the COVID-19 epidemic. The federal government’s $5.2 trillion infusion into states and their economies was the largest fiscal stimulus package ever. One-time federal financial supports reduced state costs and artificially bolstered revenues. Recently, Pew Charitable Trusts observed: “The combination of temporary funds propping up budgets and the adoption of new recurring expenditures or tax cuts has left many states in a precarious position. Policymakers now must grapple with the possibility that their states’ finances are structurally imbalanced and vulnerable to deficits as one-time funds dry up but new commitments remain.”

Not wanting to “waste a good crisis,” as they say, Republicans rushed to enact a flat tax during an extremely uncertain economic time when the level of likely future tax revenues was cloudy at best.

As the COVID economic booster begins to fade, several states have experienced significant decreases in tax revenue as compared to their 15-year trend. Iowa was among states experiencing a negative difference in the fourth quarter of 2023 — mind you, before the flat income tax kicked in. Iowa experienced a 6% decrease in revenue from its historical trend, the fourth-highest difference among states that went negative, according to Pew.

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Researchers explained: “State tax collections have been on a downward trajectory since their mid-2022 peak, reflecting, in large part, a decline from the unexpected highs of the pandemic revenue wave. … One question is whether states will be able to afford the budgetary commitments they made in the past three years — such as tax relief and pay raises for public employees — over the long term.”

Yet, Iowa Republicans want to enshrine their COVID-fueled tax cut into the Iowa Constitution. Last session, Republicans passed a constitutional amendment to require a two-thirds vote of both chambers of the state Legislature to pass a bill that would increase the individual or corporate income tax rate. They are expected to pass the legislation a second time this session, which would likely put it on the ballot for voters in November 2026. What a way to saddle future Iowans with a hasty tax cut enacted during a most abnormal period of artificially high revenue and reduced state expenses.

It is a sure thing Republicans will hoard Iowa’s surpluses and use it to cover predicted revenue gaps before the November 2026 vote on the constitutional amendment to mask from the voting public the true and lasting impacts of their opportunistic push for a flat tax.

In fact, Republicans and Gov. Kim Reynolds passed Senate File 2442 this year, which, among other things, changed the law regarding how the Taxpayer Relief Fund could be used. Tucked away in the second-to-last division of a 35-page bill is a section that provides that, if the actual net revenue is less than budgeted expenses “there is transferred from the taxpayer relief fund to the general fund of the state an amount equal to fifty percent of the difference or the remaining balance of the taxpayer relief fund, whichever is lower.” That is a preemptive coverup of the probable result of the Republican flat tax as conceded by Republicans, themselves.

Iowa Republicans are not using the Taxpayer Relief Fund as it was originally intended. It is not “taxpayer relief” to use previously paid taxes to pay help pay for budget shortfalls caused by a “tax cut.” Most would call that a shell game. It is like giving yourself a “raise” by moving a dollar from one pocket to another. Why not just give those “confiscated” funds back to Iowans directly via refunds? Ah, but that would spoil the game, wouldn’t it?

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Unmet needs and underfunded state accounts exist now. That will get worse.

Governor Reynolds states Republicans have a “commitment to shrinking the size and scope of government.” However, should not elected officials be committed first to ensuring that our government is the “right size,” before deciding it should be shrunk? That is, the right size to fully accomplish basic functions that individuals cannot meet themselves —no matter how much of their own money they have in their pockets — such as prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, ensuring safe bridges and roads, making sure promised pensions are not underfunded, cleaning up Iowa’s fouled waters, and helping public schools at least meet their costs of operation.

Tom Walton is an Iowa lawyer.



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