There was a big old house located at 502 South St. in Toledo, Iowa.

The dwelling has a living room, dining room, kitchen, den, and bath on the first floor, four bedrooms on the second. The basement is divided, with a gray painted cement floor, into a laundry room and the other half has a work bench and a furnace. To the side of the furnace was, in the late 1940s and early 1950s, a coal bin. Once or twice a year, a dump truck would pull up alongside the house, drop a chute down to the window and allow the coal to fill the bin.

My job, when I reached 10 or so, was to shovel the coal into a hopper, which then fed it down to the furnace where it would burn. Every so often, I would open the furnace door and pull out the “clunkers” (burned up coal) and place them in a bucket for emptying in the alley behind the house. The coal would burn, and the heat would spread up throughout the house.

In the spring, along the south side of the building, flowers would be planted and watered by pouring the water on top of the plant, soaking the ground and saturating the roots.

I have now explained all you need to know about the differences between a conservative Republican economist and a Democratic one. Others may try to confuse you by talking about supply and demand, but economic policy is pretty much determined by where you put the emphasis, cutting taxes for the earners at the top of the scale or to those at the lower end.

For conservatives, the supply side theory holds that cutting government revenue (taxes) frees the money up to be used to create jobs to increase the supply of goods and services, thus causing the economy to grow. The more goods that are supplied to the market, the more the economy will grow and revenues will increase.

Democrats hold that emphasis should be placed on government spending, i.e. public works like roads, bridges and infrastructure that creates jobs, which provides the money necessary to purchase goods and grow the economy. Since consumer spending is the major engine that drives economic growth, it also increases government revenue.

One thing is for sure, whether you are liberal or conservative on government policy as it pertains to the tax code: In 2025, it is very likely changes will take place in tax revenue, if only because former President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax reductions are set by law to expire. If Trump wins, the tax cuts remain in place and will likely be expanded. But Vice President Kamala Harris, is not yet supporting further across-the-broad tax reductions, instead targeting increased tax rates for higher-income people, and at least extensions of the tax credits for lower-income individuals, like the earned income tax credit for children and a $25,000 credit for first-time home buyers.

There is a bit of irony in all of this. In 1935 a British economist, John Maynard Keynes, upset conventional thinking that the way out of recessions and depression was to balance the federal budget. Instead, he argued what is needed in down times is increased spending by the government. This proposition was, except within the Roosevelt administration, almost uniformly rejected. But by the 1970s, President Richard Nixon’s economic adviser Milton Friedman admitted, “we are all Keynesians now.”

Taxes: Where do Trump and Harris stand?

All of which brings us to Arthur Laffer and his advocacy that high tax rates cause a loss of government money. He developed the Laffer curve, meant to illustrate that when tax rates get too high, they become counterproductive. Reducing tax rates will motivate people to work and produce more since they get to keep more of their own money, leading to more revenue; raising tax rates produces the opposite effect.

Now maybe to everyone’s surprise, and whether intended or not, Harris’ economic consultants are saying turn the Laffer curve upside down: Reduce taxes on the lower half of the economic scale and you will have individuals with money to spend.

That is really the choice the two candidates offer. If you are a supply conservative proponent, then you should stand in the shade of the elephant. If you believe in the Democratic reversal of Laffer’s proposal, ride a donkey. Pretty simple really — coal in the furnace or water on the flowers, just like when I was a kid.

This column was originally published in the Waterloo Cedar-Falls Courier.

Drought conditions are continuing to spread in Iowa, despite this year starting as the ninth wettest year on record after an unusually rainy spring.

“If we hadn’t received the rainfall recharge earlier this year, conditions would be exceedingly worse,” said Keith Schilling, a state geologist and the director of the State Geographical Survey.

It’s been 34 days since Cedar Rapids received measurable rainfall, the third longest stretch in the fall the city has experienced since 1892 when state record-keeping began.

Statewide, “severe drought” conditions increased 8.5 percent in Iowa in the past week, including a swath of northeast Iowa, partially driven by low moisture and humidity levels, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday.

At this point, almost all of Iowa is experiencing some level of abnormally dry or drought conditions. Only a handful of Iowa counties in southern Iowa — Page, Taylor, Ringgold, Decatur and Wayne — are free of dry conditions.

In addition, the National Weather Service on Thursday issued a red flag warning, signaling increased fire danger.

September was the driest September in Iowa in 52 years. But even with that, 2024 still ranks around the 30th wettest year on record in Iowa.

How did drought conditions creep back into Iowa after the state had such a wet spring?

Like ‘clockwork’

Schilling said it’s like “clockwork.”

“The soil moisture conditions are like a clock that continually needs to be rewound to keep from slowing down or stopping,” he said. “The rain earlier this year reset the clock and filled the soil moisture system. But crop water use during the summer and the lack of rain this late summer and fall are causing drought conditions to emerge again.”

In a normal year, Iowa would have had enough rainfall this fall to reset the soil moisture conditions before heading into winter, Schilling said.

“Any level of low-level drought occurring now began only a couple of months ago instead of several years ago, so we are in a much better place than would have been if (spring) rainfall had not occurred.”

Dry October

Justin Glisan, state climatologist with the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, said the state experienced only 10 percent of its typical precipitation in the first half of October.

Looking at the year as a whole, Iowa has had about 30.5 total inches of precipitation, about 5 inches under the state’s annual average, with two-and-a-half months left in 2024.

“That just shows you how wet and how dry last year was,” Glisan said.

Cedar Rapids went without rain 55 days in the fall of 1952, the record, he said.

“Throughout the remainder of October, coming in November, it’s a pretty critical time for us to try to get some moisture down into that soil profile,” said Joshua Michel, an Iowa State University Extension and Outreach field agronomist for northeast Iowa. “Otherwise, our soils most likely will be on the drier side when we come around into spring,”

Michel said northeast and Eastern Iowa has fallen to “anywhere from 2-1/2 to 3 inches below normal (rainfall) or more” in the past 30 days. In the past 60 days, precipitation is anywhere from 4=1/2 to 6 inches below normal or more.

Given that “pretty significant deficit,” he said he wasn’t surprised to see drought conditions expanding in this week’s drought monitor.

He anticipates a slow, continued expansion of drought conditions across the state. Looking ahead, however, Michel said he does not anticipate “extreme” and “exceptional” drought coming to Iowa.

Glisan, the state climatologist, said Iowa’s climate conditions, including drought statistics, go back to 1895.

If Iowa receives rain in late October and into November and December, drought conditions will improve.

“But if the rain stopped completely, and this is all we got, it would be the 55th driest year,” he said of 2024.

Fighting drought

When it comes to Iowa’s current conditions, Glisan said, a “drought is a drought,” but Iowans can do a few things to conserve water, even though water scarcity, as of now, is not on his radar.

For example, landowners with irrigation systems can water their lawns or plants in the evening, since water evaporates faster during the day with warmer temperatures.

Homeowners also should check their faucets and pipes to make sure water isn’t leaking from them.

Despite about 50 percent of the state’s harvest being completed, Michel said it’s important that farmers and their helpers clean and maintain farm machinery and equipment to help mitigate the risk of fires.

A good way to do this, he said, is by taking a power washer, using compressed air or even a leaf blower at the end of the day to clean out machinery’s air filters. He also recommends workers check their coolant and oil levels and remove any material that may be wrapped around any belts, chains or moving parts on the machine.

“Everything creates an enormous amount of heat, especially when you have these very high winds and low humidity levels,” he said. “All it takes is some leaf material, plant residue or some dry chaff getting caught somewhere, and it has the ability to warm up and start smoldering,” Michel said. “It’s not going to be very hard for that to take off, and all of a sudden, you have a problem on your hands.”

Breaking down the drought monitor

The U.S. Drought Monitor categorizes drought conditions as:

The drought monitor has broken down the historically observed impacts of the five drought categories. They list the impacts as:

Olivia Cohen covers energy and environment for The Gazette and is a corps member with Report for America, a national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-covered issues.

Comments: (319) 398-8370; olivia.cohen@thegazette.com

The majority of Iowa, including the Des Moines metro, is under a red flag warning for Thursday.

The warning runs from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. and has been expanded to replace the previous fire weather watch, according to the National Weather Service.

What is a red flag warning?

Warm temperatures combined with low humidities and strong winds create an increased risk for fire danger. Red flag warnings are usually only issued in the spring and fall weather seasons from Feb. 15 to April 30 and Oct. 1 to Dec. 15, according to the National Weather Service.

Where is the Red Flag warning in Iowa?

High wind gusts from 35 mph to 45 mph west and north of the Des Moines metro will create “very high to extreme fire danger conditions,” according to the National Weather Service. Humidity will be quite low, ranging from 15% to 25%. Des Moines is expected to see a peak humidity point of 22% and winds at 31 mph.

Is a red flag warning a burn ban in Iowa?

Red flag warnings are issued by the National Weather Service. Meteorologists strongly advise against starting fires, but cannot ban them.

Individual counties or cities may issue burn bans. Polk, Story and Johnson counties were among the 59 counties with burn bans active as of 8:45 a.m. Thursday. The Iowa State Fire Marshall’s Office maintains an interactive map of all active burn bans.

Safety practices you should take during red flag warnings

• In areas that permit burning, all burn barrels must be covered with a weighted metal cover with holes no larger than 3/4 of an inch.
• Do not throw away cigarettes or matches while driving. This could ignite dry vegetation.
• Properly extinguish outdoor fires by drowning it with plenty of water, and never leave a fire unattended.

Kate Kealey is a general assignment reporter for the Des Moines Register. Reach her at kkealey@registermedia.com or follow her on Twitter at @Kkealey17.