Iowa
DeSantis and Haley are battling to emerge in Iowa as the preferred Republican alternative to Trump
DUBUQUE, Iowa (AP) — Second place in the Iowa caucuses is seldom so important.
The rivalry between GOP presidential candidates Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley has become a leading storyline before the first Republicans vote on Jan. 15. The two are in an increasingly testy contest to emerge in Iowa as the preferred alternative to former President Donald Trump for the party’s 2024 nomination.
Florida Gov. DeSantis has said he expects to win Iowa despite trailing far behind Trump in polls. He portrays Haley, a former South Carolina governor who was Trump’s U.N. ambassador, as a puppet of wealthy donors and someone who has flip-flopped on key issues.
Haley, who hopes to edge the better-organized DeSantis in Iowa, has accused him of misrepresenting her record, especially on taxes, and of falsely portraying himself as tough on China.
The stakes are enormous for both.
DeSantis would upend the race if he were to beat Trump in the caucuses. Haley’s allies believe they could hobble DeSantis if she finishes ahead of him. The thinking is that a second-place finish would give her a boost before New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 primary and a chance to take on Trump directly in South Carolina a month later.
“I don’t know if we’ll get to second. I certainly hope so. That’s our mission,” said Mark Harris, lead strategist for Stand for America, a pro-Haley super political action committee. “We do that, we turn the page and head into a state where I think we’re in a great position to win.”
Trump has been operating at a different level, attracting tens of thousands to rallies in larger cities since the fall and packing events into the final stretch of the campaign in every corner of the state. His campaign has spent months organizing caucusgoers and recruiting “captains” responsible for turning out voters on Jan. 15.
He has ramped up his attacks of Haley in speeches and campaign ads, which Haley has said is a sign he is taking her more seriously. Before a Trump speech Friday, her campaign issued a statement about the former president going after her on immigration.
“Nikki Haley is rising,” her campaign said. “Donald Trump is scared. This is a two-person race.”
But Haley must also fend off DeSantis. His camp has hit her for several recent comments about the cause of the Civil War and the role of Iowa in the GOP nomination process. In an interview with NBC News and the Des Moines Register, DeSantis referred to Haley as a “phony.”
DeSantis has repeatedly mentioned comments Haley made in New Hampshire this past week when she suggested that New Hampshire voters would “correct” Iowa’s results. Haley tried to play down the remark by explaining it as a nod to the good-natured rivalry between the two early-voting states.
“We’re getting down to crunch time in the Iowa caucuses,” DeSantis told more than 300 people jammed into a bar Saturday in downtown Dubuque. “And no, your votes don’t need to be corrected by any other state. I don’t care what Nikki Haley says.”
Haley answered a recent question in New Hampshire about the cause of the Civil War without mentioning slavery. She walked back her answer a day later and said “of course” slavery was a cause of the war.
The Civil War comment came up again at a CNN town hall Thursday. DeSantis’ campaign posted on X, formerly Twitter, an excerpt of Haley’s response, in which she said she had “Black friends growing up.”
While the original remark prompted rebuke from Democrats and GOP rivals, especially former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who mentioned that South Carolina was the first state to secede from the Union over slave rights, the dust-up never came up in questions at four Iowa events the following weekend.
What Haley did mention at an event Friday, as she has regularly in recent weeks, is an ad aired by a DeSantis-aligned super PAC in which she is accused of flip-flopping on a pledge not to raise the fuel tax while governor of South Carolina.
“Every one of those commercials is a lie,” she said. She said she resisted gas tax-increase proposals until she offered a compromise to proponents that came with an even larger income tax reduction. The proposal died without action.
DeSantis has shaken up his campaign staff and recalibrated his message several times over the past year and has bet heavily on a strong Iowa finish. He visited all 99 counties, aided by an aligned super PAC, Never Back Down, that spent the summer and fall sending organizers door to door to recruit supporters.
Haley’s team began organizing much later and only last month received the endorsement of the political arm of the billionaire Koch Brothers’ Americans for Prosperity. That group is now canvassing voters and organizing for Haley.
Still, the pro-Haley super PAC Stand for America has emerged the biggest spender down the stretch, purchasing more than $27.5 million in ads since the start of last year, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. Two DeSantis-allied groups, Never Back Down and Fight Right, have combined to spend about $26 million over the same period.
Former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, a Republican who has not endorsed in the race, described Haley’s comment about Iowa an unfortunate mistake, but not one that would likely derail her campaign. His successor, Gov. Kim Reynolds, has endorsed DeSantis.
“Second is a possibility. If she gets second here, there would be tremendous momentum going into New Hampshire,” Branstad said Friday at an event where Haley was speaking. “It’s going to be difficult because DeSantis has spent a lot of time here and has the governor’s support.”
Candidates running in Iowa work to show respect for the state’s traditions and its leadoff status, though some question Iowa’s ultimate influence. The last Republican to win a contested caucus and become the GOP nominee was George W. Bush in 2000.
“You can’t be antagonistic or dismissive of people whose votes you want,” said Ellen Carmichael, a Republican campaign messaging strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns. “To me, that was just such an unforced error. They take it seriously, with such reverence for the system. You don’t want to diminish that.”
There is a 4-way tie atop our season standings between John Steppe, Jeff Johnson, Rob Gray and Beth Malicki
The Gazette offers audio versions of articles using Instaread. Some words may be mispronounced.
The Gazette’s Pick ‘Ems for Week 13 of the college football season including long road trips for Iowa and Iowa State and the top-five showdown between Indiana and Ohio State.
Iowa (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) at Maryland (4-6, 1-6)
11 a.m. Saturday (BTN)
Line: Iowa -6.5
Mike Hlas (2-1, 24-12) — Iowa’s No. 3 quarterback for this game is a Maryland blue crab. Iowa 24, Maryland 14
John Steppe (2-1, 26-10) — My editors are excited for a deadline-friendly 11 a.m. start. I’m just excited to use Washington’s outstanding Metro system. Iowa 20, Maryland 13
Jeff Johnson (3-0, 26-10) — Hey, Coach Ferentz. I’ve got some eligibility remaining if you need a quarterback. I specialize in the Tush Push. Maryland 21, Iowa 17
Rob Gray (3-0, 26-10) — Can the return of Cade McNamara save the Hawkeyes’ season? Maybe. But can the “clouds” settle and put Jackson Stratton into the starting spot? It appears possible. Iowa 14, Maryland 10
Beth Malicki (3-0, 26-10) — I’m hosting Thanksgiving and don’t want anyone to bring their own darn food. This isn’t a potluck. This is my chance to show off and stress out. Iowa 20, Maryland 17
Todd Brommelkamp (3-0, 25-11) — Maryland has a single B1G win (by just one point) and gives up almost 30 points a game yet somehow Iowa’s final road trip of the year has become very unnerving. Iowa 28, Maryland 19
No. 22 Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) at Utah (4-6, 1-6)
6:30 p.m. Saturday (Fox)
Line: Iowa State -7.5
Hlas — Once I was in a bar in the old Denver airport waiting to catch a flight to Salt Lake City. Someone dropped a quarter in a jukebox and played a Hall and Oates record. At that moment, the most amazing thing happened to all of us there. (Continued on Page 13C). Utah 21, Iowa State 20
Steppe — Utah has more national parks than college football wins this year. Iowa State 23, Utah 20
Johnson — “Is it possible the two Utes …” “The two what?” “What?” “Did you say two Utes?” “Yeah, two Utes.” “What is a Ute?” “Oh, excuse me, your honor. Two youths.” Iowa State 28, Utah 10
Gray — If the Cyclones can stop the run, a path to 9-2 swiftly materializes. If they can’t, this is a four-quarter game. Iowa State 27, Utah 17
Malicki — Why am I wearing a splint on each wrist when I sleep? Self-induced carpal tunnel from robust cleaning. Iowa State 31, Utah 24
Brommelkamp — Utah’s controversial loss in the Holy War two weeks ago was the final straw in a lost season for Kyle Whittingham’s team. Make it seven straight setbacks for the Utes. Iowa State 25, Utah 21
No. 5 Indiana (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)
11 a.m. Saturday (Fox)
Line: Ohio State -12
Hlas — This is the biggest Indiana football game of our lives, then we have turkey dinner five days later. So delay that move to New Zealand for another week. Ohio State 35, Indiana 28
Steppe — My mother is an Indiana grad. I hope she does her Christmas shopping for me before reading this pick. Ohio State 41, Indiana 31
Johnson — Indiana is a great story, but let’s get real. Hoosiers have played exactly ONE team with a winning record, and that’s Washington, which is a mere 6-5. Ohio State 31, Indiana 14
Gray — Heck, let’s blow it all up. Bluebloods be damned. Er, wait. On second thought … Ohio State 27, Indiana 14
Malicki — I cannot wait for all three of my adult kids to come home so I can be so overwhelmed with delight I can’t sleep so in all the pictures I have “crazy eyes.” Ohio State 34, Indiana 23
Brommelkamp — It’s clear ESPN and the CFP aren’t fans of Curt Cignetti’s upstarts. I am. The Hoosiers will (hopefully) make this a game and prove their many doubters wrong. Ohio State 31, Indiana 24
WEST DES MOINES, Ia. (WCTV) – Two people from Decatur County were arrested in Iowa Wednesday, and face charges related to an alleged robbery, according to a press release from the West Des Moines Police Department.
Daniel Mathes of Bainbridge is charged with robbery in the second degree and theft in the first degree. Lisa Haire of Climax is charged with aiding and abetting robbery in the second degree and aiding and abetting theft in the first degree.
Late Wednesday afternoon, police responded to a call of a robbery at a bank, according to authorities. No one was injured, and police determined Mathes and Haire suspects related to the incident, police say.
They were later pulled over by Iowa State Patrol on I-80, and arrested without incident, according to authorities.
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A notable late-season Big 12 matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 22 Iowa State goes on the road against Utah. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Iowa State sits in a two-way tie for third-place in the Big 12 standings after a two-game losing skid that came to an end last weekend, but the Cyclones need help getting to the league title game.
Utah was the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 Championship Game, but slid to just 1-6 in conference play and is on a six-game losing streak, not having won since late September, against Oklahoma State, the other worst team in the league this season.
What do the analytical models suggest for when the Cyclones and Utes square off in this Big 12 matchup?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Iowa State and Utah compare in this Week 13 college football game.
As expected, the models are siding with the Cyclones against the Utes, but by a close margin.
SP+ predicts that Iowa State will defeat Utah by a projected score of 24 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 4.1 points in the process.
The model gives the Cyclones a solid 60 percent chance of outright victory against the Utes.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.
Iowa State is a 7.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.
FanDuel lists the total at 41.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).
And it set the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -280 and for Utah at +225 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Cyclones to dominate the Utes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Iowa State is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread in the process.
The other 38 percent of wagers project Utah will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under 8 points in a loss.
Most other analytical football models also favor the Cyclones against the Utes this weekend.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Iowa State is the favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 63.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Utah as the presumptive winner in the other 36.8 percent of sims for the game.
How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the matchup?
Iowa State is projected to be 4.8 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Iowa State is fourth among Big 12 teams with a 9.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model forecasts the Cyclones will win 9.3 games this season.
Colorado (34.3%) leads the Big 12 in the playoff race, according to the index projections, followed by BYU (31.1%) and Arizona State (13.5%).
Utah has two games left to become bowl eligible, but the index doesn’t foresee that happening.
FPI projects the Utes will win 4.7 games and have an 11.9 percent chance to make a bowl game.
When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Salt Lake City, Utah
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT | 5:30 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network
–
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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