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The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 31-7 Victory Over Florida International

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The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 31-7 Victory Over Florida International


BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Each week at Hoosiers On SI we make a score prediction on the Indiana football game and suggest three keys to the game.

Since this was my first go-around with the prediction and three keys – hi, I’m Todd Golden, the new guy at Hoosiers On SI – I thought it would be fun to revisit this after the game to see how well I did. Or how poorly. Or whether the truth is somewhere in-between.

Indiana won 31-7 over Florida International on Saturday at Memorial Stadium in a game that deviated very little from what was expected.

The ease of victory was considerable, but will the devils in those details serve up a tasty plate of satisfaction? Or a big plate of humble pie? Read on and find out.

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Let’s start with the predicted three keys:

1. Protect Kurtis Rourke

Kurtis Rourke

Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke (9) passes during the first half of the Indiana versus Florida International football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

Statistically, it seems that Indiana was passable in this department. FIU sacked Rourke twice, and the Panthers were credited with two quarterback hurries. Rourke dropped back to pass 24 times, so while that ratio isn’t perfect, it’s also not a major concern.

Anecdotally, it seemed like Rourke was under a bit of pressure at times, but are looks deceiving?

In its grades of the game, Pro Football Focus said Rourke was under pressure on 27.6% of his passing plays and that he was pressured eight times overall. Not constant pressure by any means, but enough to rush a few throws.

PFF.com also noted that Rourke was never hit as he threw and that of the six quarterback pressures it counted? Three came from right tackle Trey Wedig’s side of the field.

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Given all of that, you’d have to say Indiana succeeded while also wondering what protection will be like against a more formidable opponent.

2. Shut down FIU’s run game

Indiana run defense.

Florida International Panthers running back Shaborne Demps (21) runs the ball against the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

This was an unequivocal success for the Indiana defense.

FIU gained just 53 rushing yards and averaged a paltry 1.8 yards per carry. In the third quarter? FIU’s rushing total was minus-6 yards.

In college football, quarterback sacks count in the rushing total, and that can often skew the rushing stats. But even if you take out the 24 yards FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins lost in sacks, the Panthers were still well below 100 team rushing yards.

As I wrote, this made FIU predictable. Jenkins, to his credit, completed 20 of 29 passes for 129 yards. But with the run game stopped, Indiana piled on the pressure and constantly had Jenkins on the run.

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3. Be patient, because FIU might wear down

This never really came into play given that the Hoosiers were in control by the final period.

As we wrote in the three keys story, one of the things that stood out for FIU in 2023 was its fourth quarter scoring plunge. The Panthers scored just 25 points in the fourth quarter in 12 games last season.

Indiana kept FIU off the scoreboard in the second half, although the Panthers did have 75 total yards in the final period. Reserves were on the field for part of the quarter, so this key never really achieved relevance.

Score prediction

Aiden Fisher, Lanell Carr Jr.

Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) and Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Lanell Carr Jr. (41) celebrate after a defensive play against the Florida International Panthers during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

On Friday, I wrote this:

“I don’t think it’s going to be a coronation for Indiana, but I also don’t think it’s going to be a nail-biter either. Indiana has too much talent to burn, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The anticipation level is always high for the first game, but it will be more so as the lid-lifter on the Cignetti era.

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With so many players on the roster who have proven they can win? I think those 13 James Madison transfers will show the way in an exciting, but measured, style of play.”

Just call me Nostradamus. Had the tenor of the game just right. Those JMU transfers were indeed impactful, especially on the defensive side.

The soothsaying was going well – until “Nostradamus” got carried away peering too far into my crystal ball.

“Indiana also has the playmakers to press FIU into turnovers. I think the Hoosiers force at least three on Saturday.”

Indiana forced one, an Amare Ferrell interception off of a tipped pass by D’Angelo Ponds. In fact, Indiana was fortunate that neither of the fumbles Rourke lost flipped the turnover margin in FIU’s favor.

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As for the score? I predicted a 41-21 win for Indiana. I was close on the margin, but I over-estimated Indiana’s offense (and FIU’s for that matter) and under-estimated Indiana’s defense.

We’ll give it all another go next week.



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Bryce Boettcher Opens Up About Indiana Ahead Of Playoff Semifinals

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Bryce Boettcher Opens Up About Indiana Ahead Of Playoff Semifinals


The No. 5 Oregon Ducks are preparing to face the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers for the College Football Playoff semifinals. Ahead of the matchup, Oregon star linebacker Bryce Boettcher discussed the game, which will be a rematch of the Ducks’ only loss this season.

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The Oregon Ducks are coming off a shutout win against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Boettcher addressed how the team can keep momentum, but called Indiana a better opponent.

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Oregon inside linebacker Bryce Boettcher celebrates his win as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“I mean, we had a really good game. I think it just obviously gives you confidence. You can’t get complacent with that confidence. You got to realize that Indiana is going to be a way better team than Tech. Tech was a good team, but Indiana is better. At this point, it’s win or go home. We’re pumped for the opportunity,” Boettcher said.

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What Sticks Out About The Rematch Against Indana

“A couple things defensively. First off, when you stop the run, they’re really good at running the ball. We got to do that. Got to cage your quarterback. Feel like he’s overlooked for how good he is at scrambling at times, getting out of the pocket. Got to do that, just do our job.”

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How Oregon Has Changed Since First Game Against Indiana

“We’ve sewn some things up within our defense. As we played them, we installed some new defenses that we’re still working the kinks out of. Now we’re experts at it. Everybody knows their job in and out. We’ve had a lot of reps at it.”

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Oregon inside linebacker Bryce Boettcher walks the orange carpet as the Oregon Ducks arrive at Miami International Airport ahead of the Orange Bowl on Dec. 29, 2025, in Miami, Florida. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

How Much The First Matchup Against Indiana Goes Into Playoff Preperation

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“It definitely comes into play. I mean, obviously, they’re not a new team but an evolved team, and so are we. I think more so, kind of correcting our errors in where we went wrong in the first game, doing some self-scout and recognizing that. They may try to expose that again in this next game. Yeah, it comes into play a little bit. We also watched new film because they’re an evolved team.”

The Challenge In Beating The Same Team Twice 

“I mean, I think obviously that’s a narrative. I know teams have been beaten twice. Sometimes it doesn’t happen. I don’t know, I think Indiana is a good team. We’re also a good team. The better team’s going to win.”

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What Being In The Semifinals Means To Bryce Boettcher

“It means everything. It’s a pretty rare opportunity. There’s four teams left. Pretty cool. Surreal. I’ll be happy once we get this win. Honestly, I’m head down, focused on the task at hand. But it’s a cool opportunity.”

MORE: Curt Cignetti Speaks Candidly On Oregon Ducks Playoff Rematch

MORE: Oregon’s Three Most Impactful Transfer Portal Departures

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MORE: Oregon Freshman Brandon Finney Turns Heads With Comments After Orange Bowl

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How Bryce Boettcher Is Handling The Magnitude Of The Game 

“I mean, I’ve played a lot of big games in my year here, whether it be football or baseball. I feel like I do a pretty good job at handling the magnitude of the game. At the end of the day, it’s a football game. We play the game every day in practice. We’ve been in pretty dang big games. It’s just another game, but it’s win or go home, so I’m pumped for that aspect.”

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Nov 22, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks linebacker Bryce Boettcher (28) poses for a photo head coach Dan Lanning before the game against the Southern California Trojans at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

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How Oregon Is Handling The Long Trips

“It’s always cool when you get to spend some time together. Obviously, most of the time we’re spending time together, it’s pretty locked in at the task at hand. We try not to spend a whole lot of time talking about other stuff other than football. There are other times on the plane or in the hotel room when you have some downtime that you can come together, bond. So it’s been fun.”

How The Defense Can Install New Ways To Stop Indiana

“You can’t be the same team every time you play another team, or else they’ll just scout you, know what you’re in every single time.”

“You got to do your assignment, play hard. At the end of the day, the team that plays the hardest and does their assignment is going to win. Some variables, throw in some new things at a team, which is definitely important. When Indiana comes out, I’m sure they won’t do everything we’ve seen on film. They’ll have a few wrinkles. That’s the exciting part.”

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What Went Wrong Against Indiana In October

“Just doing our job within our defense. Honestly, the past Indiana game, couple mental errors where I didn’t necessarily do my job in the body of the defense. Same goes for other guys on our team. I think just sewing that up, better understanding our opponent, having a better game plan going into the game.”

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Dec 20, 2025; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning looks on during the fourth quarter against the James Madison Dukes at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

What Makes Indiana’s Offensive Line Good

“They’re smart, fast, and physical. I know up front in their run game, they play physical, and they do their job. They don’t have a lot of unblocked hats. I know in the screen game, they get out and are elite at kind of retracing and blocking for their receiver in the screen game, which was present in our last game. We’ve done a lot of screen drills. They’re a good unit. They play well together and do their job.”

What The Loss Against Indiana Meant For The Rest Of The Season

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“I believe everything happens for a reason. I think we needed that to kind of wake us up. We came out of a big Penn State win, kind of thought we were pretty cool going into that week, pretty confident. Got a little lackadaisical with our prep, I think. It was a good wake-up call. The rest of the season leading up to this point is a pretty good testament to the way we responded to that loss.”

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FBI thwarted ‘ISIS-inspired plot’ at Indiana school, but won’t say where

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FBI thwarted ‘ISIS-inspired plot’ at Indiana school, but won’t say where


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At some point in 2025, the FBI helped a local police agency foil an “ISIS-inspired plot” that at least one minor planned to carry out at an unnamed central Indiana school, according to an annual summary released by the federal agency’s Indianapolis field office on Jan. 5, 2026.

FBI agents “disrupted an ISIS-inspired plot targeting a Central Indiana high school through rapid coordination with local partners,” according to the news release.

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Beyond that, the agency provided few details, sharing neither the name of the school involved nor the city or town in which the school was located. Nor did the agency clarify why the report characterized the plot as ISIS-inspired.

Chris Bavender, an FBI spokesperson, declined to answer an IndyStar request for additional information about the foiled attack, responding in an email that “this matter is ongoing.”

“Because the student had immediate access to firearms, FBI Indianapolis worked closely with the high school and our local law enforcement partner to remove all firearms from the house, and the student was expelled from school. DOJ did not file charges as the individual is a juvenile,” Bavender wrote.

Bavender did not provide any information on whether the student is facing charges in the juvenile justice system.

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Although high schools in both Mooresville and Westfield were the site of high-profile threat investigations in 2025, neither matched the details mentioned in the FBI report.

In February 2025, Trinity Shockley, 18, was arrested after sharing plans for a Valentine’s Day school shooting at Mooresville High School. Though the investigation into Shockley began after the FBI received a tip, Shockley was not a juvenile at the time of her arrest. Nor did court documents filed in her case reference any connection to ISIS.

The Mooresville Police Department did not immediately respond on Jan. 5 to a request for comment.

In September 2025, Westfield High School was placed on lockdown after a “potential threat.” Billy Adams, the assistant chief of the Westfield Police Department, said there’s no indication the lockdown “had anything to do with an ISIS-inspired plot.”

IndyStar reached out on Jan. 5 to multiple police agencies in central Indiana, including the Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department, the Southport Police Department, the Speedway Police Department and the Beech Grove Police Department.

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Officials for IMPD, Southport, and Speedway police said their agencies handled no such threat. Beech Grove’s police department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Ryan Murphy is the communities reporter for IndyStar. She can be reached at rhmurphy@indystar.com.



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Unseasonably mild temperatures for central Indiana this week | Jan. 5, 2026

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Unseasonably mild temperatures for central Indiana this week | Jan. 5, 2026


INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Temperatures in Central Indiana are expected to remain above normal through late this week, with highs near 60 degrees expected by Thursday and Friday. Rain showers are predicted from Thursday through Friday night, with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms.

Today:

Dry and mild, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. Just a mix of sun and clouds with light winds should make for a pleasant afternoon.

Tonight:

Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s, with patchy drizzle or fog possible late.

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Tuesday:

Mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions with wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph, elevating highs into the lower to middle 50s. A few light showers will be possible through the day as well.

Wednesday:

Should be the best day of the week, featuring more sunshine and lighter winds, with highs in the low to mid 50s.

Late week storm system:

Highs on Thursday and Friday are set to approach 60°, which will be pushing a few records across the state.

A warm front moving through Thursday evening will spark scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms across the area starting Thursday afternoon.

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A stronger storm or two can’t be ruled out.

Showers will continue into the first half of Friday, before the cold front pushes out of the state later in the day.

As the weekend approaches, the cold front will move through, leading to a significant drop in temperatures. Conditions will become cooler and breezy, with spotty flurries possible as temperatures return to seasonal norms for this time of year.

Looking ahead, the weekend is expected to bring a return to cooler temperatures and near-seasonal norms, with potential light snow flurries in the forecast as a cold front passes through Central Indiana.



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