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The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 31-7 Victory Over Florida International

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The Day After: Predictions Revisited From Indiana’s 31-7 Victory Over Florida International


BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Each week at Hoosiers On SI we make a score prediction on the Indiana football game and suggest three keys to the game.

Since this was my first go-around with the prediction and three keys – hi, I’m Todd Golden, the new guy at Hoosiers On SI – I thought it would be fun to revisit this after the game to see how well I did. Or how poorly. Or whether the truth is somewhere in-between.

Indiana won 31-7 over Florida International on Saturday at Memorial Stadium in a game that deviated very little from what was expected.

The ease of victory was considerable, but will the devils in those details serve up a tasty plate of satisfaction? Or a big plate of humble pie? Read on and find out.

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Let’s start with the predicted three keys:

1. Protect Kurtis Rourke

Kurtis Rourke

Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke (9) passes during the first half of the Indiana versus Florida International football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

Statistically, it seems that Indiana was passable in this department. FIU sacked Rourke twice, and the Panthers were credited with two quarterback hurries. Rourke dropped back to pass 24 times, so while that ratio isn’t perfect, it’s also not a major concern.

Anecdotally, it seemed like Rourke was under a bit of pressure at times, but are looks deceiving?

In its grades of the game, Pro Football Focus said Rourke was under pressure on 27.6% of his passing plays and that he was pressured eight times overall. Not constant pressure by any means, but enough to rush a few throws.

PFF.com also noted that Rourke was never hit as he threw and that of the six quarterback pressures it counted? Three came from right tackle Trey Wedig’s side of the field.

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Given all of that, you’d have to say Indiana succeeded while also wondering what protection will be like against a more formidable opponent.

2. Shut down FIU’s run game

Indiana run defense.

Florida International Panthers running back Shaborne Demps (21) runs the ball against the Indiana Hoosiers during the first half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

This was an unequivocal success for the Indiana defense.

FIU gained just 53 rushing yards and averaged a paltry 1.8 yards per carry. In the third quarter? FIU’s rushing total was minus-6 yards.

In college football, quarterback sacks count in the rushing total, and that can often skew the rushing stats. But even if you take out the 24 yards FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins lost in sacks, the Panthers were still well below 100 team rushing yards.

As I wrote, this made FIU predictable. Jenkins, to his credit, completed 20 of 29 passes for 129 yards. But with the run game stopped, Indiana piled on the pressure and constantly had Jenkins on the run.

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3. Be patient, because FIU might wear down

This never really came into play given that the Hoosiers were in control by the final period.

As we wrote in the three keys story, one of the things that stood out for FIU in 2023 was its fourth quarter scoring plunge. The Panthers scored just 25 points in the fourth quarter in 12 games last season.

Indiana kept FIU off the scoreboard in the second half, although the Panthers did have 75 total yards in the final period. Reserves were on the field for part of the quarter, so this key never really achieved relevance.

Score prediction

Aiden Fisher, Lanell Carr Jr.

Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) and Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Lanell Carr Jr. (41) celebrate after a defensive play against the Florida International Panthers during the second half at Memorial Stadium. / Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports

On Friday, I wrote this:

“I don’t think it’s going to be a coronation for Indiana, but I also don’t think it’s going to be a nail-biter either. Indiana has too much talent to burn, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The anticipation level is always high for the first game, but it will be more so as the lid-lifter on the Cignetti era.

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With so many players on the roster who have proven they can win? I think those 13 James Madison transfers will show the way in an exciting, but measured, style of play.”

Just call me Nostradamus. Had the tenor of the game just right. Those JMU transfers were indeed impactful, especially on the defensive side.

The soothsaying was going well – until “Nostradamus” got carried away peering too far into my crystal ball.

“Indiana also has the playmakers to press FIU into turnovers. I think the Hoosiers force at least three on Saturday.”

Indiana forced one, an Amare Ferrell interception off of a tipped pass by D’Angelo Ponds. In fact, Indiana was fortunate that neither of the fumbles Rourke lost flipped the turnover margin in FIU’s favor.

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As for the score? I predicted a 41-21 win for Indiana. I was close on the margin, but I over-estimated Indiana’s offense (and FIU’s for that matter) and under-estimated Indiana’s defense.

We’ll give it all another go next week.



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Indiana Pacers conference rival offseason check-in: Boston Celtics

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Indiana Pacers conference rival offseason check-in: Boston Celtics


Only two teams beat the Indiana Pacers three times last season — the Chicago Bulls, who are a weaker squad, and the champion Boston Celtics. Even the best teams couldn’t consistently beat Indiana, but Boston was a different beast.

In the postseason, the Pacers and Celtics met again, and the series ended in a sweep. Indiana may have taken down Boston twice during the regular season, but in general, the Celtics had the Pacers number. They’re a terrific team. They won the title for a reason.

After acquiring Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis last summer, Boston was set up pretty well to be at the top of the association for a year or two. Since then, they extended Jaylen Brown’s contract, extended Jayson Tatum’s contract, extended Holiday’s contract, and found ways to pay the rest of their talent on fair contrats. The Celtics are set up to be great as long as their financial situation will let them.

That made their 2024 offseason extremely straightforward. After winning a championship and having a core locked up, Boston just needed to keep everyone that was important and minimize their losses. They were able to do so, and it was fairly pain free.

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As of this writing, the only two departures for the Celtics in the summer of 2024 are former Pacers forward Oshae Brissett and guard Svi Mykhailiuk. Neither of them were in Boston’s nightly rotation last season, and they didn’t play much in the playoffs. They were replaceable.

Instead of those two, the Celtics have added Baylor Scheierman (via a first-round draft pick) and Lonnie Walker (via free agency). Walker may not be around when the season comes, but those two fill an open forward and guard spot from the Celtics departures.

Elsewhere, Boston’s rotation is the same. Holiday, Tatum, Brown, Derrick White, Porzingis, Xavier Tillman, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet, Neemias Queta, and Al Horford are all back. That is, on paper and in practice, the best rotation in the NBA.

Boston’s offseason was fairly trivial as a result. They have an amazing team and they were willing to keep everyone — so they did. They should be considered the championship favorites for the coming season.

In fact, after the offseason in Boston, the Celtics should be thought of as potential favorites for the next few seasons. In just the last four months, Holiday and Tatum have added to their deals. In the offseason, the front office kept Hauser and White on longer deals. The core of the champs are all locked up for the next few years.

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They will be tough for anyone, including the Pacers, to topple. Indiana’s up-tempo style did give the Celtics fits at times, and their playoff series was closer than the 4-0 result suggested. But Boston will continue to grow. Indiana will have to improve to keep up.

The Celtics offseason was simple. If they were willing to pay all of their players, they should have. And that’s what President of Basketball Operations Brad Steven did. Boston’s roster is back together, and they will be hard for the Pacers to take down in the coming seasons.



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'Extensive' search underway for suspect who stabbed teen at NW Indiana baseball field

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'Extensive' search underway for suspect who stabbed teen at NW Indiana baseball field


Authorities in northwest Indiana on Saturday afternoon were conducting an “extensive search” for the person wanted for stabbing a teenage girl in the hand at a baseball field.

The incident happened at the baseball fields in Lowell behind the VFW 6841 post, 17401 Morse St., according to the Lake County Sheriff’s Department. A “dark-skinned male with long hair,” stabbed a 14-year-old girl before being chased into the woods, sheriff’s officials said.

Sheriff’s patrol deputies, detectives, department K-9s and aviation units were working with several surrounding law enforcement agencies in searching for the suspect. The alleged stabber could be in the company of other men and should be considered armed and dangerous, police said.

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Residents in the immediate area were being asked to keep their homes and vehicles locked and notify police of suspicious activity. Anyone who sees the suspect was urged to call 911 immediately.



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Curt Cignetti coaching history: Career record, more to know of Indiana football coach

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Curt Cignetti coaching history: Career record, more to know of Indiana football coach


At the news conference formally introducing him as Indiana’s new football coach last December, Curt Cignetti had a simple message when asked about how he will sell the Hoosiers to prospective recruits, the kind he would need to turn around the program’s fortunes.

“I win,” he said. “Google me.”

A quick and easy internet search will confirm his words were as true as they were confident.

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REQUIRED READING: IU’s Curt Cignetti and the 35-year-old recliner he can’t let go: ‘Brilliance happens there’

Throughout his 40-year coaching career, Cignetti has been a part of dozens of winning teams. As a head coach, that has been especially true, with a successful five-year run at James Madison serving as the latest example of his prowess.

At Indiana, he’ll face perhaps his biggest challenge yet.

Though they’ve had spurts of success — most recently, the pandemic-affected 2020 season in which they went 6-2 and rose into the top 10 of the national polls — the Hoosiers have largely been a basketball school working to compete in one of college football’s best conferences.

Over the past 30 seasons, they’ve made just five bowl appearances, losing each. They haven’t won even a share of a Big Ten championship since 1967. Since that stellar 2020 run, they’re just 9-27.

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If Cignetti’s resume and background are indicative of anything, that may soon change. Ahead of Indiana’s 2024 season opener against Florida International Saturday, here’s a look at Cignetti’s coaching career, record and more:

REQUIRED READING: Can Indiana football’s Curt Cignetti take team to new heights? Bold predictions for 2024

Curt Cignetti coaching career

Cignetti’s path to becoming a head coach in a “Power Four” conference was long and hard-earned.

Shortly after graduating from West Virginia, Cignetti got his start in his hometown of Pittsburgh as a graduate assistant at Pitt, where in 1993 he returned to stay for seven seasons as the quarterbacks and tight ends coach.

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After that came another lengthy stint at NC State, where he was the quarterbacks coach and tight ends coach, as well as the recruiting coordinator. Among the players he coached during his seven seasons there was future top-five NFL draft pick and Pro Bowler Philip Rivers.

When Nick Saban arrived at Alabama in 2007, Cignetti served as the Crimson Tide’s recruiting coordinator and wide receivers coach from 2007-10. During that time, he helped Alabama bring in No. 1 recruiting classes in 2008 and 2009 and, by the end of the 2009 season, the Tide won its first national championship since 1992.

Following the 2010 season, Cignetti took over as the head coach at Indiana University of Pennsylvania (IUP), a Division II program about 60 miles east of Pittsburgh. Over six years, he guided the Crimson Hawks to the Division II playoffs three times and finished in the top 25 four times.

That success earned him a jump to FCS program Elon, where he went 14-9 over two seasons, a drastic improvement over the 12-45 record the Phoenix compiled in the previous five seasons. They made the FCS playoffs in both seasons, just the second and third time they had ever done so.

In December 2018, Cignetti was hired at James Madison, which had won the FCS championship three years earlier. In his first season, the Dukes went 14-2, a five-win improvement from the previous season, and made it to the FCS championship, losing narrowly to North Dakota State. Under Cignetti, they made the FCS semifinals in each of the next two seasons.

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In 2022, James Madison made a long-awaited transition to the FBS. In their first season, the Dukes went 8-3 and finished in a tie for first place in the Sun Belt East Division. As a first-year FBS program, however, they were ineligible for a bowl game. The 2023 season had even more in store for James Madison, which started 10-0 and rose as high as No. 21 in the US LBM Coaches Poll before finishing the regular season 11-1. For his efforts, Cignetti was named Sun Belt Coach of the Year.

Here’s a look at Cignetti’s coaching stops.

Head coach unless specified

  • 1983-84: Pitt (GA)
  • 1985: Davidson (QB/WR coach)
  • 1986-88: Rice (QB coach)
  • 1989-92: Temple (QB coach)
  • 1993-99: Pitt (QB/WR coach)
  • 2000-06: NC State (recruiting coordinator, QB/WR coach)
  • 2007-10: Alabama (recruiting coordinator, WR coach)
  • 2011-16: IUP
  • 2017-18: Elon
  • 2019-23: James Madison
  • 2024-present: Indiana

REQUIRED READING: IU football Insider roundtable: What’s a Curt Cignetti team look like? Time to find out.

Curt Cignetti record

Over his 13 seasons as a head coach, Cignetti has a record of 119-35, including a 74-20 mark in conference play.

  • IUP: 53-17 overall (33-11 Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference)
  • Elon: 14-9 overall (10-5 Coastal Athletic Association)
  • James Madison: 52-9 overall (18-1 CAA) (13-3 Sun Belt)

Curt Cignetti father

Coaching came naturally to Cignetti. After all, it runs in the family.

Cignetti’s father, the late Frank Cignetti, was a longtime college coach. He was the head coach at West Virginia from 1976-79, where he went 17-27. He was named the athletic director at IUP in 1982 and took over as the school’s football coach in 1986. He led the Crimson Hawks for 20 seasons, piloting them to a 182-50-1 record, 13 NCAA playoff berths and two appearances in the national championship game.

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He retired after the 2005 season and six years later, his son took over his old post. The elder Cignetti was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2013.

Curt Cignetti’s younger brother, Frank Cignetti Jr., is also a coach. He was most recently the offensive coordinator at Pitt before being fired after the 2023 season.

REQUIRED READING: ‘I’m a zero star.’ How JMU transfer Mikail Kamara evolved into pass rusher IU craves.

Curt Cignetti contract

Cignetti will earn $4.25 million in first year of his contract with Indiana, a significant financial step up from the $677,311 he made in his final season at James Madison.

According to terms of a memorandum of understanding he signed in December, Cignetti will make at least $27 million across six seasons at Indiana, not including bonuses and performance incentives.

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Tom Allen, Cignetti’s predecessor, brought in $4.51 million in total pay in his final season as the Hoosiers’ coach, according to USA TODAY Sports’ coaching salary database.

Curt Cignetti age

Cignetti, born June 2, 1961, is 63 years old.



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