Saturday’s tilt between Penn State and Indiana in Happy Valley features the No. 2 team in the country trying to stay undefeated.

That team is a 14.5-point favorite against an underdog doing its best to play the role of spoiler.

If you’re just joining us, you may be surprised to learn that the two-score favorite in this game is actually Indiana, and it’s Penn State, which was ranked No. 2 in the AP’s preseason poll, that is relegated to spoiler.

We’re living in crazy times.

Indiana vs. Penn State odds, prediction

The Indiana Hoosiers are not your typical Cinderella.

This is the second year in a row that Indiana can claim to be one of the best teams in the country, and everything the Hoosiers have accomplished is backed up by a ridiculous statistical profile.

Indiana grades out as the nation’s best offense, per SP+, and ranks eighth in yards per play.

The Hoosiers have a star quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, but they’re far from one-dimensional. In fact, only eight teams run the ball more than Indiana this season. The effectiveness of Indiana’s rushing attack has allowed Mendoza to flourish under Curt Cignetti.

Indiana’s offense is good enough to win games on its own, but it is backed up by one of the stingiest defenses in the country.

According to SP+, only Ohio State has been better without the ball than the Hoosiers.

It’s no wonder that only one team (Iowa) has kept the Hoosiers to a single-digit margin of victory this season.

It’s hard to see Penn State joining that list.

While the Nittany Lions are still talented and should be motivated to win the biggest game left on their schedule at home, things have continued to trend in the wrong direction for Penn State.

Betting on College Football?

The Nittany Lions only mustered 14 points — all of which came in one quarter — against Ohio State, proving that the offense is rudderless without Drew Allar.

The defense grades out as No. 25 in the country per SP+, which is good, but you need to be better than that to slow down Indiana, especially when your offense can’t be relied upon to keep you fresh.

The numbers back up a bet on Indiana in this spot. The Hoosiers have proven, time and again, that they are one of the best teams in the country on both sides of the ball.

If you’re betting on Penn State, you’re just leaning into the narrative that this is their Super Bowl.

Didn’t we just try that angle last week at Ohio State?

The Play: Indiana -14.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

The Indiana Hoosiers are ranked No. 2 in the country and continue to make program history. 

On Saturday, they will try to check off another box and do something they’ve never done before, and that’s win at Penn State.

Indiana comes into this game a 15.5-point road favorite, a spread that would have been hard to fathom before the season or really at any point in either of these programs’ histories. 

But here we are. 

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Bettors might be shy about going against the Hoosiers when looking at recent games. They are coming off wins of 56-6 and 55-10 in their last two games and have won all but one of their games by double digits. They’re undefeated and have won by an average of 31 points, the best margin of victory in the country. 

But are these too many points on the road? 

I actually like Penn State getting the points here, although it’s admittedly dangerous to bet against Indiana and their head coach Curt Cignetti. 

Cignetti is not shy about running up the score on his opponents. But the Nittany Lions have the ground game to move the chains and keep the clock going — a great trait to have for an underdog catching a lot of points. 

Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton were expected to spearhead a rushing attack that was going to have Penn State in the mix for a national title after coming just short in last year’s College Football Playoff semifinals. While that goal won’t be reached, the Nittany Lions can play spoiler to some extent here and at least try to disrupt Indiana’s bid for an undefeated season. 

State’s quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has taken over for the injured Drew Allar, and the results have been underwhelming through two starts. However, road games against Iowa and Ohio State are tough assignments for anyone, and now Grunkemeyer gets to finally start at home. 

As difficult as it is to bet against Indiana right now, the Hoosiers do have a modest 20-15 win against Iowa on their ledger, and let’s hope — as Penn State backers — that this game can yield a similar score. 

Let’s go with Penn State +15.5 and hope the running game does enough to shorten this contest and keep it within a pair of touchdowns.

PICK: Penn State (+15.5) to lose by fewer than 15.5 points

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

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Curt Cignetti completely reloaded the offense to make it even better in his second season at Indiana. With Fernando Mendoza at the helm, Indiana is flourishing not only in the passing game but also in the running game. Penn State has struggled on defense, and was gashed by one of the best offenses last week in Ohio State.

Facing another top offense in the country, the Nittany Lions will have their hands full facing some high-end talent at all aspects of the Indiana offense.

Can Penn State’s defense slow down the best offense in the country or will Indiana continue to run through teams?

All rankings and stats are from CFBStats.com

Passing yards per game

• Indiana offense: 259.2 ypg (33rd in nation)
• Penn State defense: 166.4 ypg (16th)

Mendoza is one of the favorites for the Heisman trophy. Just because the numbers aren’t quite there, doesn’t mean it’s bad. Mendoza is doing exactly what he needs to, making every throw in the book. In his last two games, his passing numbers have gone down, but the Hoosiers haven’t needed him. Against a top pass defense on paper, Mendoza will rely on his receivers, who could open the game up like Ohio State’s did last season.

A.J. Harris and Zakee Wheatley will have to step up to limit receivers like Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. If Mendoza finds them early, it could be game over before halftime.

Passing yards per attempt

• Indiana offense: 9.4 ypa (8th)
• Penn State defense: 6.4 ypa (32nd)