Indiana

Celtics-Pacers: 4 things to look for in Game 4 of East Finals

Published

6 months ago

May 27, 2024

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Celtics-Pacers: 4 things to look for in Game 4 of East Finals

Pascal Siakam’s playoff-friendly midrange game has added an expected source of offense for the Pacers.

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INDIANAPOLIS — No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven playoff series. But four have come back to force a Game 7, with the last being the Boston Celtics, who did it a year ago in the Eastern Conference Finals.

In these Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics are the team with the 3-0 lead, and they know the job is not done.

“It’s a way different feeling, obviously,” Derrick White said on Sunday about being up 3-0. “But you just understand that anything can change after one game. So you can’t relax.”

Here are some things to keep an eye out for as the Celtics try to close out the Indiana Pacers in Game 4 on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).

1. How Haliburton’s absence changes the Pacers … defensively

Game 2 of this series was the one that wasn’t close. And it wasn’t close because the Celtics had their most efficient offensive performance (126 points on 94 possessions) of the playoffs.

It was as purposeful of an offensive performance as we’ve seen from the Celtics, who relentlessly attacked the weaknesses in the Indiana defense. Those weaknesses began with Tyrese Haliburton, who was consistently put into screening action involving Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.

With Haliburton out in Game 3, the Pacers switched more screens, and the Celtics had to find other ways to gain advantages and create good shots. They certainly attacked other weaknesses, namely Doug McDermott and Ben Sheppard. Boston also made Myles Turner work a little more, with Al Horford setting 23 ball screens, the most he’s set in the playoffs and tied for the second most he’s set all season in 78 total games.

“Everything depends on the coverage and the matchup,” Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said Sunday. “The way you attack and the type of spacing that you have and the reads you have are going to be different because the coverage is different.

“It’s more about that, finding the advantage and making sure we can exploit it as a team.”

Haliburton was listed as questionable on the initial injury report for Game 4. If he plays, it’s unlikely he’ll be at 100 percent, making him more of a target for the Celtics’ defense than he was in Game 2. If he doesn’t play, the Celtics also know what to do.

2. Do the Pacers have any more midrange magic?

Midrange shots (those that come between the paint and the 3-point line) accounted for just 11% of total field goal attempts this season. That’s half the midrange rate from just seven years ago (22% in 2016-17) and one third the rate from 16 years ago (33% in 2007-08).

But the midrange shot is not dead. It’s a key reason why the Pacers are still playing, and why two of the three games in this series have been close.

Over their 16 playoff games, the Pacers have taken 15% of their shots from midrange, the highest rate (by a healthy margin) among the four teams still playing and up from 10% (21st) in the regular season.

While the Pacers didn’t shoot a lot from midrange in the regular season, they were the first team in the last 27 years to make more than half (50.5%) of their shots from between the paint and the 3-point line. And they’ve been even better (52.4%) in the playoffs.

That includes a four-game stretch — Game 6 of the conference semis through Game 2 of this series — in which the Pacers shot an incredible 50-for-81 (61.7%), with those 81 attempts accounting for 23% of their total shots from the field.

The were still better than average (7-for-15) in Game 3, but that wasn’t enough. One possession before he had the ball stolen by Jrue Holiday, Andrew Nembhard missed a 13-foot pullup that would have given the Pacers back the lead with a little more than 30 seconds left.

If they’re going to take this series back to Boston for a Game 5, the Pacers may need a little more midrange magic on Monday.

3. Celtics’ small ball hasn’t worked

Game 4 will be the 10th straight game that Kristaps Porzingis has missed with the calf strain he suffered in Game 4 of the first round. That injury has pushed Al Horford into the starting lineup, and that lineup has been much better in the playoffs (plus-18.1 per 100 possessions in 195 minutes) than it was in the regular season (plus-2.7 in 311 minutes).

With Horford in the starting lineup, Luke Kornet was the backup center until he sprained his wrist in the first half of Game 2.

With Kornet out, the Celtics initially went to small lineups — with Tatum or Oshae Brissett at center — when Horford sat down. But those lineups haven’t been good:

Celtics in conference finals

Bigs on floor	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg	+/-
Two	6	133.3	108.3	+25.0	+3
One	121	122.1	112.2	+9.9	+28
Zero	21	129.7	147.4	-17.6	-8

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Doesn’t include a couple of minutes of Game 2 garbage time

So Xavier Tillman has been getting some minutes as the backup center, including more than six minutes alongside Horford in Game 3 (all of the two-big minutes in the table above).

In the second half on Saturday, the only time there were zero bigs on the floor was the last seven seconds of the third quarter). The bigs were missed in those seven seconds, because the quarter ended with McDermott getting a tip-in over Payton Pritchard to put the Pacers up nine.

Horford and Porzingis (when he returns) allow the Celtics to play big without sacrificing spacing on offense. Kornet (who’s listed as questionable for Game 4) and Tillman, not so much. But the latter’s minutes were critical in Game 3, and we may not see much more small ball going forward.

4. More numbers to know

Some other notes regarding the Celtics and Pacers:

This series is a huge contrast in ball movement, with the Pacers having averaged 400 passes per 24 minutes of possession and the Celtics having averaged just 276 per 24.

Celtics opponents have made just 19 corner 3-pointers over their 13 playoff games. That’s as many as the Wolves made in their four-game sweep of the Suns in the first round.

Though Boston is a plus-51 from 3-point range in this series, the Pacers have outscored them by three total points from the field. But Boston is a plus-27 at the free throw line.

After committing just 11.6 turnovers per 100 possessions through the first two rounds (lowest among teams that won a series), the Pacers have committed 16.4 per 100 in this series. Boston has won the possession battle, committing 14 fewer turnovers over the three games.

The Celtics’ Sam Hauser and the Pacers’ Ben Sheppard were a combined 33-for-72 (45.8%) from 3-point range through the first two rounds of the playoffs. They’re a combined 0-for-18 in the conference finals.

* * *

John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.

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Indiana

IU trip to Bahamas will reveal a lot about Hoosiers, who can’t come home empty-handed

Published

17 mins ago

November 26, 2024

Press Room

IU trip to Bahamas will reveal a lot about Hoosiers, who can’t come home empty-handed

BLOOMINGTON – Indiana heads to The Bahamas this week with plenty to gain — and plenty to prove.

The Hoosiers placed virtually all their nonconference emphasis on their first-ever trip to Battle 4 Atlantis, and they cannot afford to come home without some quality wins pocketed from a Thanksgiving spent on Paradise Island.

What makes this a successful holiday tournament trip? Five thoughts …

Greater consistency

Through four wins in four games, we’ve seen the idea of Indiana burst through the clouds. Stretches when the Hoosiers’ array of talent and experience makes them virtually unplayable at both ends of the floor, when even a high-major opponent like South Carolina looked simply overwhelmed.

We haven’t seen it often enough, though.

In a way, that’s fine. No basketball team should be fully formed in November. Anyone playing their best right now is in big trouble come March.

But IU needs it this week. A reasonable path through this tournament will see games against top-50 competition at least once, probably multiple times. That means opportunity, but it also means the hot-and-cold performances thus far need to be smoothed over a little more. Those windows into what Indiana can be need to open a little wider this week.

Point guard play

Myles Rice has been outstanding through these first four games. Trey Galloway has had moments, as he continues his steady progress back to full fitness following offseason knee surgery. Indiana will need their best this week.

In settings like these, players with their creativity and experience, are crucial. Sightlines are weird. The whole environment can make shooting difficult. The teams that can force the ball to the rim and either finish or draw fouls (or both) have an added advantage.

The axiom in basketball that guards win games generally always applies. But in neutral venues, when certain elements of a team’s offense might be stunted, the ability to force action and either score or create moving downhill — something both Galloway and Rice have shown proficiency in doing — becomes invaluable. Both players must deliver in The Bahamas.

Rebound the ball

It was too often a problem last season, and it’s been too often a problem this season.

Yes, Indiana is playing smaller. And yes, games like UNC Greensboro can go a little sideways in this department when an overmatched opponent chucks and chases because it knows there’s little point in trying to attack the rim.

But a team with IU’s size and athleticism cannot be a sub-200 team in opponent offensive rebound rate. The Hoosiers cannot afford to be so poor in closing out possessions. This team will undermine its offensive improvement and its athletic advantages if it continues to be so poor on the glass.

Indiana doesn’t need to be (and probably won’t ever be) dominant here. That’s not how the Hoosiers are constructed. But they are and must be better than they’ve been so far in this area, and three games in three days against demanding competition will require immediate improvement.

Mackenzie Mgbako’s continued growth

Indiana’s leading scorer had his quietest game of the season Thursday, scoring just nine points on 2-of-11 shooting and seeing his second-half playing time eaten into by Bryson Tucker’s bench performance. Everyone’s allowed a bad day at the office.

But Mgbako would do well to ensure he leaves those at home this week. IU’s most dynamic offensive player early in the season, Mgbako has flashed three-level scoring potential the likes of which few players with his size and athleticism can claim.

Few teams, even good ones, have adequate cover for a 6-8 wing who can shoot from multiple levels and finish around the rim the way Mgbako does. Couple that to improved rebounding and defense, and when he’s on, Mgbako is perhaps this team’s biggest individual game changer.

A microcosm of his team’s task this time of year, Mgbako needs to strive for consistency in those areas. Make the off nights few and far between. Find ways to impact games in multiple ways, and shift the way he scores to suit what his opponent struggles against.

This week is a good test for Indiana, and it’s certainly a good test for Mackenzie Mgbako. Both will get a better look at their ceiling in Atlantis.

Quality wins

It’s the simplest and most important storyline following Indiana to the islands.

The Hoosiers put all their faith in this tournament, in terms of being able to add quality to their NCAA tournament in nonconference play. Barring a surprise breakout from South Carolina, IU isn’t likely to beat anyone of meaning from a NET perspective anywhere but in Atlantis.

That represents a calculated gamble for Mike Woodson, whose program learned the hard way how far behind the eight ball an empty-calorie nonconference resume can set a team from an NCAA tournament perspective. The Hoosiers cannot repeat that this year.

Which means they need to make hay in the sunshine in Atlantis. Louisville might stand up as a decent win, somewhere between Quads 1 and 2. Gonzaga and/or Arizona would be worthwhile scalps. Oklahoma, Providence and West Virginia all might be in time.

Whatever its performances, Indiana needs to leave The Bahamas with some wins, or it will leave itself with a lot to do in conference play to ensure Selection Sunday isn’t a stressful experience.

Listen to Mind Your Banners, our IU Athletics-centric podcast, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Indiana

Where is Indiana basketball ranked going into the Battle 4 Atlantis?

Published

9 hours ago

November 25, 2024

Press Room

Where is Indiana basketball ranked going into the Battle 4 Atlantis?

BLOOMINGTON — Indiana basketball heads to the Bahamas as a top 15 team.

The undefeated Hoosiers (4-0; 0-0) jumped three spots in the latest USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll to No. 15 and two spots in the latest AP Poll to No. 14. They spent nine weeks ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll during the 2022-23 season.

Indiana will compete in the Battle 4 Atlantis this week starting with a game at noon on Wednesday against Louisville. No. 4 Gonzaga and West Virginia are on the same side of the bracket and No. 23 Arizona is also among the teams in the field.

The tournament is IU’s only chance to pick up any wins away from Assembly Hall during its non-conference schedule.

Indiana beat Louisville, 74-66, in last year’s Empire Classic. The Cardinals parted ways with Kenny Payne and hired Pat Kelsey as his replacement. They head into the event 3-1 this season — they suffered a 22-point loss to a Tennessee team that IU defeated in a pre-season exhibition — without a single returning player in their starting lineup.

The Hoosiers have won all four of their games by double-digits and averaging more than 80 points per game with four of their five starters — Mackenzie Mgbako (18.8 points per game), Myles Rice (14.8), Malik Reneau (13.5 points) and Oumar Ballo — averaging in the double-digits.

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.

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Indiana

How to Watch: Louisville Cardinals vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Published

17 hours ago

November 25, 2024

Press Room

How to Watch: Louisville Cardinals vs. Indiana Hoosiers

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Following a four-game home stand to open up the 2024-25 season, the Louisville men’s basketball program is heading back to The Bahamas to participate in the Battle 4 Atlantis, and will kick off the event against regional rival Indiana.

The Pat Kelsey era of the Cardinals is off to solid start, although they have played imperfect basketball during their 3-1 start to the season. They’re averaging 81.0 points per game and have a 18.3 scoring margin, but have shot just 29.4 percent from deep on the year, and lost by 22 to Tennessee in their lone game vs. a power conference team.

As for the Hoosiers, they’re off to an undefeated start in year four under head coach Mike Woodson. All of their games have been won by at least double figures, including an 87-71 victory over South Carolina. Mackenzie Mgbako is leading the charge for IU with 18.8 points per game.

This will be the 22nd all-time regular season meeting between Louisville and Indiana, with the Hoosiers owning a 12-9 advantage. IU has won the last two matchups against UofL, including a 74-66 decision back on Nov. 20, 2023 in their last matchup in the Empire Classic.

(Photo of Chucky Hepburn: Jamie Rhodes – Imagn Images)

You can follow Louisville Cardinals On SI for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram:

Facebook – @LouisvilleOnSI
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