The Kansas CIty Chiefs and Detroit Lions are very different, and yet they’re the same.

Kansas City has continuously had to hold onto leads at the end of games, while Detroit has rolled one team after the next. And, yet, both are 10–1 and the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences.

Meanwhile, there was a change in the NFC playoff picture, with the Seattle Seahawks jumping into the No. 3 seed after beating the Arizona Cardinals, who went from that spot all the way out of the playoff picture with a single loss. 

Here’s how everything looks in both conferences, updated up to the second.

Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

Record: 10–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 99%

Kansas City was able to ward off the pesky Carolina Panthers on Sunday, giving it an AFC-best 10 wins. A short week is ahead for the Chiefs, who host the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday.

Record: 9–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 99%

The Bills had the week off. A big three-game stretch looms with the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions coming up in Orchard Park.

Record: 8–3, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 88%

After getting into the first-seed conversation, the Steelers lost in the snow to the Cleveland Browns. Next up, the Cincinnati Bengals, who are clinging to life at 4–7.

Record: 7–5, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 94%

After winning convincingly in Dallas on Monday night, Houston was upset by the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. C.J. Stroud & Co. hold a two-game lead in the AFC South, but appear to be headed for the fourth seed.

Record: 7–3, second place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 91%

Los Angeles will try to stay in this spot with a victory Monday night over the Baltimore Ravens, while also opening a two-game lead in the loss column with a tiebreaker in hand.

Record: 7–4, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 95%

The Ravens have a chance to close the gap in the AFC North while also jumping the Chargers with a win at SoFi Stadium on Monday night.

Record: 7–5, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 60%

Denver took care of the Raiders in Las Vegas, giving it a second straight win before coming home to host the Browns on Monday night. The Broncos still have the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals on their schedule, easily their biggest games remaining. 

IN THE HUNT

Miami Dolphins (5–6): The Dolphins pummeled the New England Patriots on Sunday behind Tua Tagovailoa’s four touchdown passes. Miami will face the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving Day.

Indianapolis Colts (5–7): Anthony Richardson struggled in a loss to the Detroit Lions. Despite being two games under .500, Indianapolis has a real shot at the playoffs with a soft schedule the rest of the way.

Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): Cincinnati likely needs to win out. That won’t be easy with two games remaining against the Steelers, starting with this weekend.

NFC: WHO’S IN

Record: 10–1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 99%

The Lions appear to be the best team in football. Detroit took on a plucky Colts team and handled them with ease, allowing only six points. Still, there’s no breathing room with Detroit only a game up in the NFC North. 

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 99% 

The Eagles visit the Rams on Sunday night. We will update this space after the game.

Record: 6–5, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 21%

Seattle lost five of six before earning two huge divisional victories over the 49ers and Arizona Cardinals the past two weeks. With those wins, the Seahawks moved to the third seed, holding a tiebreaker over the Atlanta Falcons for the spot.

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 83%

Atlanta had its bye week, and comes out of the break facing the Chargers and Minnesota Vikings the next two weeks.

Record: 9–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 98%

The Vikings continue to be only one game back of the Lions in the NFC North, while remaining the top team in the NFC wild-card picture after a 30–27 overtime win over the Chicago Bears.

Record: 8–3, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 93%

Green Bay handled the injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers with ease, continuing to make a playoff push. The Packers now have a short week with Miami coming to Green Bay on Thursday.

Record: 7–5, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 72%

Freefall in Washington? The Commanders have now lost three consecutive games, with a defeat to the listless Dallas Cowboys being the worst of them all.

IN THE HUNT

Arizona Cardinals (6–5): Arizona went to Seattle and managed only six points. The Cardinals will try to rebound this upcoming weekend against the Vikings in Minnesota.

Los Angeles Rams (5–5): The Rams play host to the Eagles on Sunday night. We will update this space after the game.

San Francisco 49ers (5–6): This might be the end for San Francisco. The Niners are ravaged by injuries to Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, Brock Purdy and Trent Williams. Next up, Buffalo.

Milwaukee’s Cream City Challenge was a smashing success for the host-Panthers, placing a bow on an undefeated weekend with a 69-65 win over St. Thomas on Sunday. Milwaukee defeated Portland State and Wofford earlier in the weekend to improve to 5-2.

Milwaukee took a seven-point lead into the final 90 seconds before surrendering back-to-back threes to narrow their lead to a single point. Themus Fulks’ free throws and a St. Thomas turnover off an attempted foul sealed the win for Milwaukee.

“We have guys who have closed out games,” said Lundy, whose team dropped four games by fewer than five points last year. “We have guys that are more connected to each other and more connected to me. We can get a little more intricate in what we can do… [Last year], I would have been afraid of fouling up three, but I know these guys will process what I’m asking them to do and be able to perform it.”

He added that he was impressed with the team’s effort and connectedness in light of the three-game-in-three-days format of the invitational.

No Faizon Fields, No Problem

A day after falling two points shy of his third straight double-double, Jamichael Stillwell scored 22 points and grabbed a game-high 8 rebounds. The Butler CC transfer’s 73 boards this year more-than double the next-best Panther.

“For me,” said Stillwell, “rebounding is like second nature.”

Stillwell and forward Aaron Franklin led the team to a 40-25 rebound advantage, including 14 offensive boards that led to 17 second-chance points. The Tommies converted just one basket off the offensive glass.

Franklin tied his career high with 15 points and added 8 rebounds in an increased role due to Fields’ absence due to a broken finger.

Big Men Also Setting Tone on Defense

The 2023-24 Panthers were a fast-paced group with a propensity for defensive lapses. The result – 78.7 points per game by their opponents.

This year’s Panthers have yet to allow more than 74 through their first seven games.

“To have bigger guys like Jamichael, Darius Duffy and Franklin who can switch and still guard those guards,” said Lundy, “they did a great job… It’s nice to have that luxury as a coach that you’ve got big guys that can switch out, move their feet and understand how to play.”

Themus Fulks added a career-high 5 steals from the point guard position.

“We’re excellent defensively and we’re really good on the glass,” said Lundy. “If you do those two things, you’ll be alright.”

Milwaukee continued the reversal of their 2023-24 first-half woes, leading 32-22 at halftime. Stillwell picked up for yesterday’s stars Fulks and AJ McKee in the first half, scoring a team-high 13 points. Fulks and McKee combined for just 8 points in the initial period.

The guards each finished with 9 points. Fellow guard Erik Pratt missed his fifth straight game due to personal reasons.

The second half included a pair of technical fouls, one from Stillwell and another from the team’s bench. A squabble between the two teams involved John Lovelace Jr. from the UWM side a few minutes later.

The Minnesota-based squad nabbed a short-lived 44-42 lead after sinking four straight free throws from the fouls. Momentum quickly shifted back in the home team’s favor as a 10-2 run gave the Panthers a six-point lead they never relinquished.

Graduate student Drake Dobbs led the Tommies with a season-high 16 points and 5 rebounds. Kendall Blue and Miles Barnstable added 11 and 10 points, respectively.

Barnstable was one of five Wisconsinites on the visiting roster, a Howards Grove graduate who transferred after scoring over 1,000 points for UW-Whitewater.

Brookfield Central’s Ben Nau, MUHS’s (Marquette) Nolan Minessale and Catholic Memorial’s Rich Byhre all saw action in their home state on Sunday.

Big Thanksgiving Week Ahead

The Panthers head south for a two-game Thanksgiving week trip against Central Florida on Wednesday and Southern Miss on Saturday.

“We need to move the ball more,” said Stillwell. “We’ve been having breakdowns on defense off of our mistakes. We just need to clean it up a little bit.”

UCF returns home after a two-game invitational that ended in losses against Wisconsin and LSU. They knocked off No. 13 Texas A&M to begin the season on Nov. 4.

Southern Miss left Milwaukee with a 90-84 win last November, the only time the Sun Belt club has faced the Panthers.

“It’s a tough trip,” said Lundy, who indicated the team will spend Thanksgiving together in New Orleans. “UCF is really talented. They’ve been up and down and are still figuring themselves out… Regardless, it’ll be a good trip for our group.”

Sunday marked the third consecutive season where Milwaukee and St. Thomas met, with the Tommies taking the previous two matchups. The St. Paul-based university joined Division I in 2021-22, becoming the newest member of the Summit League.

The Tommies were tabbed for a fourth-place finish in the official preseason poll behind Kansas City, South Dakota State and North Dakota State.

“They are well-coached,” said Lundy. “They’re going to win a lot of games.”

Sunday’s victors hope to find the same success on the road this week – catch the Panthers on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. on Wednesday and 1 p.m. on Saturday.