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Michigan vs. Illinois football prediction: What the analytics say

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Michigan vs. Illinois football prediction: What the analytics say


Big Ten football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 22 Illinois plays host to No. 24 Michigan in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Illinois (5-1) edged out Purdue by a single point in overtime last week, moving to 2-1 in Big Ten play and hoping to stay in contention for the conference championship.

Michigan lost its second game of the season two weeks ago on the road against Washington, falling to 2-1 in Big Ten games and now with virtually no margin for error in the playoff race.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the models forecast a very close game between these Big Ten rivals.

Michigan is projected to win the game outright in the slight majority 59.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 40.4 percent of sims.

In total, Michigan came out ahead in 11,920 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Illinois prevailed in the other 8,080 predictions.

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And the index projects a very close game on the scoreboard, too.

Michigan is projected to be 3.8 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough for the Wolverines to cover the spread against the Illini.

That’s because Michigan is a 3 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game.

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And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -155 and for Illinois at +135 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors are giving Illinois the benefit of the doubt against Michigan, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

53 percent of bets currently forecast the Illini will either win in an upset or keep the game within the narrow line.

And the other 47 percent of wagers expect the Wolverines will win the game and cover the spread.

Illinois is sixth among Big Ten teams with a 3.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.7 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

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That model gives Michigan a 2 percent chance at the 12-team playoff and a win total prediction of 6.8 games this season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

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  1. Texas (56)
  2. Oregon (6)
  3. Penn State
  4. Ohio State
  5. Georgia
  6. Miami
  7. Alabama
  8. LSU
  9. Iowa State
  10. Clemson
  11. Tennessee
  12. Notre Dame
  13. BYU
  14. Texas A&M
  15. Boise State
  16. Indiana
  17. Kansas State
  18. Ole Miss
  19. Missouri
  20. Pittsburgh
  21. SMU
  22. Illinois
  23. Army
  24. Michigan
  25. Navy

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Illinois in the trenches again to protect fair housing

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Illinois in the trenches again to protect fair housing


Is housing discrimination illegal even if the action wasn’t intended?

According to the Fair Housing Act, yes.

Should the federal government go after errant housing providers in those scenarios? Well, that depends on the president.

In 2013, Barack Obama codified what’s known as the “disparate impact” rule, in other words, recognizing discriminatory practices not motivated by discriminatory intent. The Biden administration reinstated the rule. Now President Donald Trump seeks to roll it back by preventing agencies from investigating housing discrimination complaints.

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Still, the disparate impact remains legal — federally and locally. And Illinois ensured extra protections by codifying disparate impact into state law. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has reduced the workforce in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and is antagonistic toward fair housing.

Let’s go back to the legal origins. In 1966, Martin Luther King Jr. spent time in the city for the Chicago Freedom Movement, which protested housing segregation and slums. Part of that campaign sent Black people to real estate offices, and agents told them they had no listings. Soon after, the campaign sent white people to the same offices, and agents gave them listings. After King’s assassination in 1968, Congress quickly passed the Fair Housing Act. The civil rights law prohibited discrimination against people trying to rent or buy a home. Race, sex and national origin are among the protected classes.

Today that King campaign is called “testing,” and fair housing organizations continue the practice. They send two people — one pair Black and one pair white — with otherwise similar profiles to visit the same housing provider. The volunteers are trained to see how they are treated and report back if discrimination occurs. State and local fair housing centers do a variety of education and fight discrimination — to the chagrin of the Trump administration, which has also sought to gut their funding. To advance fair housing, HUD is a primary source of financing. Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul, along with other states, filed a lawsuit to challenge the attacks. Some contracts have been reinstated, but not every center received back money.

“A lot of our worst fears have kind of already happened. We know that it’s going to take at least a decade to rebuild the federal infrastructure to what it was before with the number of federal workers,” said Emily Coffey of the Chicago Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights. “What we had a couple of years ago was never enough. We are still one of the most segregated cities in the country. What worries me the most is that we won’t be able to sustain what we have, and rebuilding that is so much more challenging than just weathering a storm.”

To counter the political climate, fair housing groups have formed the Illinois Housing Equity Collective, which seeks $5 million from the state for fair housing enforcement. So far philanthropy has contributed to the collective.

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Michael Chavarria leads HOPE Fair Housing Center, which serves DuPage and Kane counties and parts of Northern Illinois. The mixed messaging from the federal government has prevented growth and also caused rearranging their budget while waiting on reimbursements. He doesn’t want to tap into reserves to cover a bill when the federal government promised that money.

“Just last year we held over 40 events that were targeted at training individuals, be it housing seekers, housing providers, local government. We reached about 3,500 people through our online educational campaigns. We reached almost 750,000 people across Illinois. So we really aim to prevent discrimination by making sure everyone knows their rights and responsibilities. We do not want to have to sue people,” Chavarria said.

Illinois finds itself once again on the front lines of protecting residents — see reproductive, immigration or First Amendment rights. And now must add fair housing, which Trump pushed against just last week by refusing to sign a bipartisan housing affordability bill.

The reason? He first wants Congress to approve the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility, or SAVE America Act — legislation designed to create more inequity and burn democracy to the ground.

Natalie Y. Moore is a senior lecturer at Northwestern University.

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New Illinois bill aims to overhaul public defense system | The Chicago Report

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New Illinois bill aims to overhaul public defense system | The Chicago Report


A major overhaul to the Illinois justice system could be officially underway.
 House Bill 3363 lays the foundation for a brand new agency, the state public defender office. 
 The goal is to bring more consistent legal representation for Illinois residents who can’t afford an attorney.
 Joining us now to discuss the rolled-out timeline is the bill’s sponsor, State representative Dave Vella, who actually started his legal career as a public defender, before heading to Springfield.



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Illinois Democrats face backlash after blaming Trump in Chicago cross-burning case | Fox News Video

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Illinois Democrats face backlash after blaming Trump in Chicago cross-burning case | Fox News Video


Illinois Democratic leaders Governor JB Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson are slammed for weaponizing a Chicago cross burning incident by blaming former President Trump. Despite the suspect, Murlin Lue, admitting his motive was to protest Trump, not racism, Pritzker and Johnson doubled down. Critics, including Illinois GOP State Rep. Chris Miller, accuse them of playing politics and fostering division rather than seeking truth.



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