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Keys to victory, players to watch, prediction for Xavier vs. Illinois in NCAA Tournament

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Keys to victory, players to watch, prediction for Xavier vs. Illinois in NCAA Tournament



Xavier and Illinois last met in the Maui Invitational in 2019.

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  • Xavier plays Illinois Friday night in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
  • Illinois is favored, but Xavier is playing in a familiar venue.
  • Xavier must slow down Illinois’ offense to advance in the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier is into the 64-team field of the NCAA Tournament after pulling out a thrilling 86-80 victory over the Texas Longhorns in the First Four Wednesday night in Dayton.

It’s a quick turnaround for Xavier, but the Musketeers will play in another familiar venue as they battle No. 6 Illinois Friday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee.

Xavier had lost its first six games against Marquette at Fiserv Forum before a 59-57 upset of the then-No. 7 Golden Eagles Jan. 18. It will be a neutral site contest this time around when Xavier takes on an Illinois program that is very familiar with the pressures of the NCAA Tournament.

3 keys to a Xavier Musketeers’ win over Illinois Fighting Illini in NCAA Tournament 1st round

1. Xavier must slow down one of nation’s highest-scoring offenses

In the aforementioned Xavier upset of Marquette, the Musketeers turned one of their best defensive efforts to pull out their only Quad 1 win of the year.

Xavier held Marquette to just 37.1% shooting (8-for-29 from three-point range), kept the Golden Eagles off the free-throw line (3-for-7) and forced 13 turnovers.

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It will be an even bigger test Friday as Xavier tries to punch its ticket to the second round. Illinois ranks No. 15 in KenPom in offensive efficiency. Illinois is No. 11 in scoring offense at 83.8 points per game and does a lot of damage near the rim as the No. 18 shooting team from two-point range.

Xavier always likes to play fast and that matches what Illinois likes to do as the No. 18 team in the country in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.

Can Xavier’s defense Friday be the unit that showed up in the second half against Texas and held the red-hot Longhorns to 33 points on 37.5% shooting?

2. Can Xavier force long misses?

Illinois loves shooting from the perimeter. The Fighting Illini attempt 46.9% of its field goals from beyond the arc, which is the 30th-highest rate in the country.

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The problem? Illinois is the fifth-worst three-point shooting team in the NCAA Tournament (No. 316 in the nation). Xavier’s defense must be tough near the rim against a bigger lineup and force Illinois out of what it does best and into more attempts from the perimeter. Illinois connects from downtown at just a 31.1% clip, which was 17th in the 18-team Big 10.

Xavier’s defensive rebounding will be tested

In Tuesday’s pre-tournament press conferences in Dayton, Xavier sophomore Dailyn Swain said the Musketeers’ improvement on the glass helped propel the team down the stretch to an at-large bid.

The numbers back it up. Per BartTorvik.com, Xavier ranks No. 8 in the country in defensive rebounding since the Musketeers hit a “low point” in early January after giving up 20 offensive boards and 22 second-chance points in a home loss to St. John’s.

Xavier lost the rebounding battle to Texas, 33-28 and gave up nine offensive boards.

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Illinois will certainly test Xavier on the glass, and it will be on the key matchups to watch. Illinois might be a bottom-half shooting team, but the Fighting Illini clean up their misses as they ranked No. 18 in the country and first in the Big 10 in offensive rebounding.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Tip: Friday, 9:45 p.m. (E.T.), Fiserv Forum (17,385)

TV/Radio: CBS/Westwood One

Ratings: Xavier is No. 41 in KenPom and Illinois is No. 20. Xavier is No. 45 in the NCAA NET Rankings and Illinois is No. 17.

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History: The two teams have split four all-time meetings with Xavier winning the last two. The Musketeers won, 65-59, at then-U.S. Bank Arena in Dec. 2006 and in the Maui Invitation in 2019.

Illinois Fighting Illini scouting report

Record: 21-12

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Head coach: Brad Underwood (164-100 at Illinois, eighth season)

Offense: 83.8 ppg

Defense: 74.6 ppg

Overview: Brad Underwood has now taken Illinois to the NCAA Tournament in five consecutive seasons and broke through last year with a Sweet 16 appearance.

With its streaky shooting, Illinois was a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team throughout the year. The Fighting Illini spent 10 weeks in the AP poll, but dropped seven of 11 between Jan. 19-Feb. 22 before a three-game winning streak to end the regular season.

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Illinois raced past Iowa in the opening round of the Big 10 Tournament before getting trounced by Maryland, 88-65, in the quarterfinals March 14.

Projected starting lineup

(Pos., Height, Stats)

Kylan Boswell (G, 6’2″, 11.9 ppg)

Kasparas Jakucionis (G, 6’6″, 15 ppg)

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Tre White (G, 6’7″, 10.7 ppg)

Will Riley (F, 6’8″, 12.5 ppg)

Tomislav Ivisic (C, 7’1″, 12.5 ppg)

Xavier Musketeers scouting report

Record: 22-11

Head coach: Sean Miller (185-86 at Xavier, eighth season)

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Offense: 78.3 ppg

Defense: 71.2 ppg

Projected starting lineup

(Pos., Height, Stats)

Dayvion McKnight (G, 6’0″, 9.5 ppg)

Ryan Conwell (G, 6’4″, 16.7 ppg)

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Marcus Foster (G, 6’5″, 8 ppg)

Dailyn Swain (G/F, 6’8″, 10.5 ppg)

Zach Freemantle (F, 6’9″, 17.2 ppg)

Players to watch

Xavier’s biggest concern against a tall Illinois lineup is sophomore center Tomislav Ivisic. The 7-footer from Croatia is averaging 12.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per game and could impact several shot attempts against a Xavier offense that gets its shots blocked at one of the nation’s highest rates.

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Xavier’s offense got its biggest bump from Marcus Foster at UD Arena as the veteran guard went 8-for-9 from the field and knocked down four 3-pointers for a season-high 22 points. Foster hadn’t scored in double figures since Feb. 15. Illinois ranks No. 143 defensive against 3-pointers and is top 20 defending inside the arc.

Xavier also got 22 points off the bench against Texas thanks to the hot shooting of Dante Maddox Jr. and Jerome Hunter.

Hunter, the only player around for the Sweet 16 run since Freemantle was hurt, hit multiple three-pointers for the first time in the calendar year.

Xavier vs. Illinois pick and score prediction

Xavier’s defense got a wakeup call after giving up 89 points against Marquette in a Big East Tournament loss. Xavier won’t have the home-court advantage it had at UD Arena, but the Musketeers use another all-in defensive effort to upset the Fighting Illini.

Xavier’s offense should get quality looks against an Illinois defense that was 14th in the Big 10 in scoring (74.6 points per game) and the Musketeers are equipped to win in a track meet.

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Five teams that started in the First Four have advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. There’s reason to believe Xavier could follow that trend.

Final score prediction: Xavier 81, Illinois 77



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Ask the Meteorologist: How one storm produced a violent tornado, 6-inch hail in Illinois

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Ask the Meteorologist: How one storm produced a violent tornado, 6-inch hail in Illinois


One storm near Kankakee, Illinois, produced a large, destructive tornado Tuesday. It also produced what will likely go down as a record hailstone for the state. 

It looked like something out of a weather textbook. Let’s show you the moments we knew destruction was happening. 

The hail

We’ll start with the hail. 

I was getting ready for bed around 7 p.m. EDT Tuesday (since I’m up before 2 a.m.), and I checked my radar app. 

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The image below is what I saw. 

A textbook supercell (rotating thunderstorm) was moving south of Chicago, but there was a unique feature that caught my attention. 

I’ve highlighted that in the image. It doesn’t look like much, but it’s a huge teller of large hail. It’s called a TBSS, or three body scatter spike. 

As the radar beam hits hailstones, it gets scattered three different times. That results in the appendage you see on radar extending off the storm.

Moments later, reports came in of hail that was baseball-sized and larger. One such report could break the state’s record for largest hailstone. 

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The report suggested a hailstone of 6 inches in diameter.

According to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, this would break Illinois’ previous record for largest hailstone – and by a long shot.

The largest hailstone on record in the U.S. happened in South Dakota, and it was measured at 8 inches in diameter. 

Insane!

The tornado

While it takes time to assess the damage and come up with a rating, there was zero doubt that a tornado spawned from this storm too. 

It’s common during tornadoes for there to be hail on the northern flank of the storm. It’s called the “hail core,” and it is a result of rapidly rising air. 

In terms of the actual tornado, it became evident that one was active when looking at radar. 

A hook echo is commonly seen in supercell thunderstorms. It’s an indication of warm air flowing into the storm, while cold air flows down its rear flank. This is your rotational aspect of the storm that extends down to the surface.

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The air spins rapidly and – eventually – it picks up debris. This can show up as a ball on the southern tip of the storm. 

Every bit of this storm was something out of a meteorology textbook – a marvel for those who admire the atmosphere, but a nightmare for those at ground level enduring its fury.



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Central Illinois could see tornadoes tonight. How to sign up for alerts

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Central Illinois could see tornadoes tonight. How to sign up for alerts


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Central Illinois is expected to be hit with tornado alerts Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the highest risk between 6 and 10 p.m.

The National Weather Service announced on X that a Tornado Watch is 95% likely in east-central Illinois through 4:30 p.m. The potential storm is forecast to reach a peak intensity of 2-3.5 inch hail, 55-70 mph winds and 120-150 mph tornadoes.

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Here’s how to stay updated on weather alerts in your area.

How to sign up for weather alerts in Illinois

Most residents throughout Illinois will automatically receive Wireless Emergency Alerts on their mobile phones from the NWS, warning them of potentially dangerous weather in their area. These will look like normal text messages and will typically show the type and time of the alert, any action you should take and the agency issuing the alert. 

Other sources of information include NOAA Weather Radio, the Storm Prediction Center’s live map of nationwide tornado watches and the Emergency Alert System on radio and TV broadcasts.

Residents can also sign up for text alerts through their local county emergency management agency, such as NotifyChicago.

Sign up for USA TODAY Network weather alerts

Illinois residents can sign up for alerts from the USA TODAY Network to receive texts about current storms and weather events in their area.

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Tornado watch vs warning

The NWS explains the difference between the varying tornado alert terminology on its website.

A tornado watch means tornadoes are possible in the area, while a tornado warning means a twister has been sighted or indicated by the weather radar. A tornado emergency is the most severe alert, meaning a violent tornado has touched down in the area.

The website uses the phrases “be prepared,” “take action” and “seek shelter immediately” to summarize the three alerts.

Central Illinois weather radar

Chicago weather radar



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Record-high Illinois university workers opt-out of pensions

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Record-high Illinois university workers opt-out of pensions



A record share of Illinois university employees opt-out of pensions for a 401(k)-style plan, lawmakers should give other state employees the same flexibility.

More retired state university employees are opting for a 401(k)-style plan rather than a traditional pension than ever before. They want more choice and flexibility in their retirement benefits. Lawmakers should expand the option to all state workers.

SURS published its annual actuarial evaluation for 2025. With only 47.1% of what they need to pay retirees, they are the second-highest funded state pension in Illinois, beaten only by the Teachers Retirement System with a funded ratio of 47.8%. That shouldn’t be a source of pride, however.

Experts say 60% funded is dangerous and 40% funded or lower is past the point of no return, so 47% is far too low. Illinois’ pension crisis is the worst in the nation.

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But the system stands apart because it offers a way out for employees who don’t want to be stuck in the outdated, one-size-fits-all pension model or a pension system that might become insolvent.

SURS gained 1,314 new employees last year, 725 to the traditional and portable pension plans while 589 opted into the Retirement Savings Plan. Nearly half, 45%, of all new members joining are opting out of a traditional pension.

The numbers show 18.2% of all active employees opted into the Retirement Savings Plan, the highest ever since it started in 1998.

It’s a defined contribution plan, similar to a 401(k), rather than the typical defined benefit pension available in most state retirement systems. That’s up from 17.7% of active employees in 2024.

Actuaries expect this pattern to continue, projecting a growing share of active employees opting into the plan until it reaches around 30% of all active employees who are on a defined contribution plan.

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Academic hires such as professors are expected to opt-in to the Retirement Savings Plan at a rate of 45%. Non-academic employees such as administrators are expected to opt-in at a rate closer to 25%.

In both cases, employees seem to enjoy getting more choice over how to invest their retirement benefits, but the difference highlights why this option is so important. Currently state university employees are the only ones with this defined contribution option.

Traditional pensions for new workers at Illinois universities have a vesting period of 10 years. That means if someone leaves their job or the state before they’ve completed 10 years, they won’t be eligible for anything but a refund of their contributions. Not the state match or any interest they could’ve accrued while working.

Early-career academics face higher job uncertainty and are more likely to change institutions than later-career or tenured faculty. Under higher expected mobility, defined contributions are more attractive because you don’t have to worry about losing out on retirement benefits because the vesting period is much lower at 5 years.

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Mobility isn’t only important in academia. The ability to change careers is important for a variety of jobs today. Wage and salary workers in the public sector today have a median tenure of 6.2 years. That number is likely skewed because 3-in-4 government workers are aged 35 and older.

Younger workers tend to stay in jobs for shorter periods. Across the public and private sectors, the median tenure of workers 55 to 64 is 9.6 years and 2.7 years for workers 25 to 34. Both figures are far below the 10-year vesting requirement for most Illinois pensions.

There’s no reason to limit flexibility and control to only employees under the State University Retirement System. Senate Bill 3389 offers a step in the right direction by allowing downstate teachers to opt-in to a similar Retirement Savings Plan. But that is only the start.

Illinois should expand this option to all five of its state pension systems so that employees can choose to have more control over their retirement finances. Similar plans have been enacted in Rhode Island and Tennessee, which has one of the best-funded pension systems in the country. A defined contribution plan offers more freedom and security for retirees.

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