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Brad Underwood finally mastered Illinois’ winning formula

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Brad Underwood finally mastered Illinois’ winning formula


Happy Friday, Illinois Land!

Instead of doing the usual column with post-Thanksgiving word puns involving side dishes and jokes about turkeys, I will use my time to point out a few things that I now know about college basketball in 2025, and the place that Illinois occupies inside of that stratosphere.

I will also discuss where Illinois fits into the landscape of the Big Ten. I think you’ll like how I see that unfolding. My pending Big Ten Analysis will highlight the lack of good depth in the conference.

It is not exactly a banner year for the Big Ten in men’s college basketball. To say the least.

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Despite the fact that the Big Ten has dropped in the national landscape, and despite the fact that Illinois lost to a True Elite in 2025 against Alabama in Birmingham by double digits, it’s great beyond words to have a head basketball coach leading your program playing basketball the way it needs to be played at this present date.

Brad Underwood has turned Illinois into a National Program. Do not confuse this with being a national powerhouse.

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Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

As I see it, here are the five levels of Illinois basketball. National Championship Contender can replace Blue Blood for Illinois. There was no way for me to get in a shot at Indiana and its fans unless I constituted it this way.

For reference: Indiana is now No. 61 in KenPom (76 in OER, and 51 in DER). I was told that they are the conference favorite. I was also told Illinois cannot play defense. More on this in a bit.

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  • Conference Bottomfeeder (Year 1-2): 26-39 in his first two seasons, 11-27 in the Big Ten. I would call this 1990s Era coaching. Up the line, full court pressure, etc.
  • Respected NCAA Tournament Team (Year 3+): This will be five-straight non-bubble NCAATs for Underwood, six if you count the COVID-19 cancellation of 2020.
  • Big Ten Power (Year 3+): In turn, this makes you a Final Four contender on semi-annual basis, at a minimum. I don’t mean make a Final Four, but be a Top Four seed. No one believes that NC State had a better season than Illinois last year.
  • National (and International) Program (Year 4+): Playing games on CBS on Thanksgiving by request, re-hiring arguably the country’s top assistant coach (Orlando Antigua), signing two potential lottery picks from two countries outside the United States. I could go on, but I won’t. You get it.

Illinois v Arkansas

Gobble gobble.
Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

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  • Blue Blood (Never): This outdated term continues to keep Indiana fans from jumping off the nearest bridge for the last three-plus decades. Illinois will never be here. UCONN can’t get into the club with six National Championships since 1999.

Having said that, I’m going to say this.

John Calipari is in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. He has taken three different programs to the Final Four: Massachusetts, Memphis and Kentucky. He is an all-time great coach with a dazzling record (814-260, for a .758 winning percentage).

Calipari won an NCAA Tournament and cut down the nets in 2012, his third year in Lexington leading the Cats. He was outstanding at Kentucky (410-123), winning games at a .769 clip during his 15-year tenure.

He inexplicably missed the NCAA Tournament twice, going just 9-16 in 2021. His last three years, Kentucky lost 30 games and twice in the NCAAT to vastly inferior teams against No. 15 St. Peter’s and last year against No. 14 Oakland.

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Illinois v Arkansas

Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

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Please read the words I type. Do not create a false narrative around comparing Calipari and Underwood, in totality.

Underwood certainly has not had the career of Calipari — it’s not close — nor will he likely end up in the Hall of Fame anywhere outside of Champaign. Not impossible, but not likely.

Looking to the future, it’s clear which coach of the pair from the Thanksgiving matchup in Kansas City has the brighter future. This isn’t close, either.

While Underwood’s Illini blitzed Arkansas with a barrage of threes, high ball screens and floor spacing for play makers, Calipari and Kentu…Arkansas…had a plan “to attack the rim all game,” according to Calipari post-game.

Arkansas ATTEMPTED 17 threes. Illinois MADE 15. Illinois was +30 in in this category.

Frees (points at the free throw line) and threes (points behind the arc) is something I look at during every halftime, and after every game.

Illinois was +29 in this category. BU’s squad scored 90 points on the elite Arkansas defense, which was ranked No. 8 in KenPom DER prior to the contest.

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The Illini had 60 of their 90 points (67.7%) of their points on Frees and Threes. Check on this stat every game that Underwood and Illinois play the entirety of the season. It will likely tell the story.

Factor in 2P% defense and you can get the winner of every game Illinois plays this year. The defensive strategy of Illinois is to defend the bucket and the arc. Despite giving a bucket full to Alabama in the lone loss (100-87), Illinois is currently No. 21 in DER.

Let’s take a look at pace of play, and how it affects efficiency, from a large scale perspective. What Illinois is doing is hard to copy.

For that matter, the Illinois offense is now No. 18 in OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating). Of the top 21 in DER on KenPom, Illinois has the FASTEST tempo, at No. 36.

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Illinois v Arkansas

Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images

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In summary, Illinois plays in the Top 10% in pace of play and ranks even better in efficiency at both ends. It’s not only extremely difficult to do, but largely unnecessary.

When you play fast and efficient on offense, defense lessens in importance in direct correlation with how more efficient your offense can be. In short, play fast and good on offense and you outscore your opponent and win based on simple math.

Here are the avearages for defensive and offensive efficiency. The lower the number, the faster the pace.

Top 5 DERs in terms of pace average: 260.6

Top 5 OERs in terms of pace average: 66.8

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Illinois pace of play: 36 (Top 21 in both DER and OER)

I know it’s a lot of numbers. I get it. Underwood has embraced the numbers game and turned Illinois from a Big Ten Bottomfeeder to a National Program.

You may not like it, but you’re gonna learn to love it.

Please take The Scientific Poll.

Poll

What is the win ceiling for Illinois men’s basketball in 2024-25?

This is threes and frees. This is creating space. This is the winning formula.

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This is Illinois Basketball.



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5 tornadoes confirmed in Illinois from Friday’s storms

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5 tornadoes confirmed in Illinois from Friday’s storms


Freeze Watch

from MON 12:00 AM CDT until MON 9:00 AM CDT, Lake County, Kankakee County, La Salle County, DuPage County, Northern Will County, DeKalb County, Southern Will County, Kendall County, Southern Cook County, Northern Cook County, Grundy County, Eastern Will County, Kane County, McHenry County, Lake County, Newton County, Jasper County, Porter County



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‘Credit card chaos’? Financial institutions bet big on repeal of first-of-its-kind Illinois law

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‘Credit card chaos’? Financial institutions bet big on repeal of first-of-its-kind Illinois law


“Credit cards may not work for sales tax or tips starting July 1.”

By now, you’ve heard that claim, but whether it’s true depends on who you ask.

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The ads — funded by the Electronic Payments Coalition of banks, credit unions and card companies — argue that Illinois lawmakers must repeal the state’s first-in-the-nation Interchange Fee Prohibition Act, slated to take effect July 1. That law prohibits financial institutions from charging “swipe,” or interchange, fees on the tax and tip portions of consumer bills and bans them from making up the fees elsewhere.

If it’s not repealed? “Credit card chaos” may ensue, the ads warn.

While the financial institutions are quick to cite a list of things that could hypothetically happen if the law isn’t repealed, it’s harder to pin down what’s being done and by who to comply with the law two years after it was signed.

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“The global payment system is not set up to where any one party to a transaction can make this happen on their own,” Ashley Sharp, of the Illinois Credit Union Association said at a Capitol news conference Wednesday. “There are multiple parties to every electronic transaction.”

The financial institutions are adamant that the global payment system as it exists today can’t discern the difference between tax, tips and total, and it would need to be retooled at a heavy cost to banks, card companies, merchants, point-of-sale companies and more.

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Instead of complying, they say, the card companies could decide to stop serving Illinois or drastically alter the way the consumer interacts with merchants at the point of sale.

An alternate reality

But as with all matters in Springfield, there’s another big-monied and powerful group on the other side of the issue. The Illinois Retail Merchants Association says the credit card companies already track all the information they need, and it’s a “complete fabrication” to say that it would take more than a mere coding change to implement the state law.

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Take your restaurant receipt, for example.

“You have the subtotal, the sales tax, the tip, if it’s applicable, and then the grand total, right? All they have to do is move their fee from the grand total to the subtotal,” Rob Karr, president of IRMA, said.

While card networks operate in over 200 countries with as many different laws, they say the only information the card processors ask for in any of them is the grand total. The receipt example, they say, erroneously conflates the point of sale with the actual processing of payments.

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In short, the two sides present starkly different realities — a muddying of the water that’s not uncommon at the Capitol.

But there is one concrete truth: The financial institutions have a lot to lose, and not just in Illinois.

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The tax and tip prohibition would shave approximately 10% off the revenue that banks and credit unions receive from retailers via interchange fees — a transfer of wealth likely to number in the hundreds of millions. It would also create massive noncompliance fines.

And then there’s the issue of precedent. The banks challenged the law but lost in court. Absent a successful appeal, the remaining battlefields would be other state legislatures.

If the card companies implement Illinois’ law, they’d be providing a blueprint for states across the nation to emulate — driving potential revenue loss into the billions.

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Thus far, Ben Jackson of the Illinois Bankers Association said, it hasn’t opened the floodgates, although some 30 states are considering similar action.

Still, it’s no wonder then, that the Electronic Payments Coalition has pulled out all the stops in its seven-figure ad campaign to repeal the law.

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How we got here

To fully understand the ongoing slugfest between banks and retailers, you have to go back to May 2024.

But first, an explanation of interchange fees. Each time a shopper swipes their credit or debit card, it sets off a complicated string of payments between banks. The retailer’s bank pays an “interchange fee,” typically around 1% to 2% of the transaction cost, to the consumer’s bank. The fees include both a set amount and a percentage of the transaction, but the credit card companies, namely Visa and Mastercard, control how they’re calculated.

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The financial institutions say interchange fees help fund credit card reward programs and security upgrades and provide compensation for bearing the risk of fraud. The hit to interchange revenue, Jackson said, would inevitably lessen reward program offerings. Sharp said credit unions, as not-for-profit cooperatives, use the revenue to offer lower rates to customers.

But the fees have long drawn the ire of retailers and small businesses, which sometimes pass the costs directly to consumers via a surcharge on bills.

It comes down to this: The retailers don’t think they should have to pay a fee on the tax and tip portion of a transaction that they don’t keep. And the financial institutions say if they’re handling those funds, they should be compensated for doing so via interchange fees.

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As for the Illinois law’s passage, it was, as the ads claim, tucked into the budget two years ago, giving little time for the bankers et al to mount an opposition campaign.

Gov. JB Pritzker and lawmakers agreed to raise about $101 million in revenue to plug a budget hole by putting a $1,000 monthly cap on the “retailer’s exemption,” a tax break retailers claim for being the state’s de facto sales tax collectors.

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But the retailers weren’t going to take that lying down, and IRMA successfully lobbied for the long-sought tax and tip exemption.

After the law passed, the financial institutions quickly sued.

To avoid uncertainty as the case played out, lawmakers delayed the measure’s effective date from July 1 last year to the same date this year.

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U.S. District Judge Virginia Kendall ultimately determined in February that Illinois is within its right to regulate the fees. She partially rejected a portion of the law that prohibited banks from sharing certain data, which the credit unions say creates different rules for different institutions and further uncertainty.

The case is now pending appeal, and the legislative process is starting anew.

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This time, the financial institutions have mounted a dual front in the court of public opinion.

The cost of compliance

Karr estimated the prohibition would bring in “north of $200 million” for retailers — essentially letting them pocket that sum instead of transferring it to the banks. A study by the Electronic Payments Coalition pegged the number at $118 million, estimating that about 40% of the interchange windfall would go to the 40 largest retailers.

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Even so, Karr said, the largest retailers are subject to the $1,000 monthly retailer exemption cap that accompanied the swipe fee ban, while smaller retailers don’t reach that mark. Add in their cut on reimbursed swipe fees, and it amounts to what Karr calls “the largest small business relief that Illinois has ever passed.”

But Jackson argued the cost of retailers complying could eat up any benefits for smaller retailers.

As for compliance, Kendall wrote in her February opinion that “It is an open question whether the transaction process could adapt to the impact of the IFPA in time.”

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“The Interchange Fee Provision is indisputably disruptive, requiring additional investments, hires, and new procedures to replace the current process for authorizing and settling debit and credit card transactions,” she wrote.

The financial institutions argue it can’t all be done by July 1. Kendall said the parties involved know what’s required of them.

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“But those procedural changes are the product of an ecosystem built by Payment Card Networks and financial institutions to facilitate consumer transactions,” she wrote. “And these entities understand the onus of IFPA compliance is on them.”

Per the coalition, compliance “would require coordination across the industry and regulators worldwide,” including with the International Organization for Standardization. It would also require more data collection, creating privacy concerns, they say.

Those global changes would require testing and certification of new equipment. Depending on their card companies or point-of-sale vendors, retailers may need to invest in new equipment, software and training.

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Banks and credit unions may also have to add staff to process rebates under the law. It allows retailers or their processing companies to petition their financial institutions for reimbursement on fees charged on tax and tips within 180 days of a transaction.

If financial institutions don’t comply within 30 days, the law provides for civil penalties of $1,000 per each transaction — and hundreds of millions of these transactions happen annually.

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So will that chaos come to fruition?

Instead of complying, according to the coalition’s literature, the card companies could just stop processing cards altogether in Illinois. They could also stop processing tax and tip portions or require two separate swipes for the subtotal and the tax and tip portion of bills.

Such claims aren’t uncommon in the legislature’s annual adjournment push.

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Sports betting companies, for example, threatened to leave Illinois when the state raised its gambling taxes in the same budget cycle that yielded the interchange fee prohibition two years ago. Instead, they adapted, because Illinois has a lot of bettors — and there’s even more card users.

Karr accused the coalition of ulterior motives in their use of hypothetical language.

“There is no need for chaos,” he said. “The only chaos is if the credit card companies impose it themselves on their consumers.”

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Ultimately, lawmakers will have to weigh how compelling the arguments are, if the courts don’t intervene first.

It’s possible that the 7th Circuit appellate court — or even the U.S. Supreme Court — gives the banks a win. But oral arguments are slated for May 13, meaning the appellate court might not rule by the time the law is slated to take effect.

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Adding a new wrinkle on Wednesday, the federal office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a subset of the U.S. Treasury Department, appeared poised to issue an order preempting Illinois’ law. It hadn’t been published as of late Wednesday, making its impact unclear.

“While the office has failed to explain their reasoning or allow public review, it’s clear the goal is an end-run around the legal process after a judge recently upheld the law,” Karr said.

As for the legislative prospects, state Rep. Margaret Croke, D-Chicago, says she’s seen enough to be concerned. The Democratic nominee for comptroller is sponsoring a bill to fully repeal Illinois’ interchange fee prohibition.

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But as of last week, she said she wasn’t planning to move it. Instead, she finds it more likely that lawmakers once again delay the law’s implementation.

“If this is a policy that the state of Illinois decides they’re going to want to have, then we need to make sure we’re doing it properly,” she said.

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This story was originally published by Capitol News Illinois and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.

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Likely tornado wallops small village in Illinois, ripping down power lines and stripping roofs

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Likely tornado wallops small village in Illinois, ripping down power lines and stripping roofs


LENA, Ill. (AP) — A likely tornado tore through a small village in northwest Illinois on Friday, ripping down power lines and trees, stripping roofs and forcing officials to shut down the community.

The storm caused “extensive damage” throughout Lena, with trees and other debris blocking roadways and “compromised structures” causing hazardous conditions, according to the Stephenson County Sheriff’s Office.

“We are extremely fortunate that this storm did not result in loss of life or serious injury,” Sheriff Steve Stovall said in a statement.

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The sheriff’s office announced Friday evening on social media that there would be no traffic in or out of the village until further notice. It later said entry was “strictly restricted.”

The National Weather Service said the damage was likely caused by a tornado and it would survey the area over the weekend.

Leo Zach, 14, had just gotten to the village’s high school’s band room for a music competition when the building started shaking and the power went out. He said the room was packed with students and some were very scared and had panic attacks.

“I’m definitely on the luckier side of how that could’ve happened,” he said. “I was just trying to stay calm, help other people.”

When they got outside, they found some of the windows blown out in the gym and part of the school’s roof ripped off.

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Photos and video posted online showed a garage totaled, bricks torn off of buildings and fences demolished.

Lena is a village of nearly 3,000 people, located about 117 miles (188 kilometers) northwest of Chicago.

A post on Lena’s Facebook page called the scene “devastating.”

“There will be challenges ahead, but we will rebuild, recover, and come through this stronger together,” the post said.

Rachel Nemon had been going to pick up her stepson from the village’s middle school when she had to pull into a car wash to take cover from the storm. She watched a large tree get ripped from the ground and sparks fly feet in front of her.

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“This is something that you see online, not in real life, especially in a small town in Illinois,” she said.

Gov. JB Pritzker said in a post on the social platform X that he’s been briefed on the damage and that the Illinois Emergency Management Agency is on the ground.

Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.



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