CLEVELAND, Ohio — The 2023 season was one of extreme highs and extreme lows for Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase. He led baseball in saves for the second consecutive year and picked up his second straight All-Star nod along the way. But Clase also led the majors in blown saves, and appeared to struggle early on making adjustments to the new pitch timer.

On Tuesday’s podcast, Paul Hoynes and Joe Noga break down Clase’s performance and weigh in with what to expect from Cleveland’s closer in 2024.

Listen and read along with an AI-generated transcript of the podcast below.

Read the automated transcript of today’s podcast below. Because it’s a computer-generated transcript, it may contain errors and misspellings.

Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast, Nov. 21, 2023

Joe Noga (00:14): Welcome back to another edition of the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast. Today we’re breaking down a closer Emmanuel k Classe and his contribution in 2023. Looking ahead to 2024 and what to expect out of Emmanuel k Classe. I bring in Paul Hoynes and we break down each of these players. This is a fun one because for as outstanding a season as Emmanuel Class A had, and make no mistake, 44 saves is a good contribution, is as good a season as we saw out of Emmanuel Class A in terms of those numbers the year before, but it’s the 12 blown saves leading the majors in that category that really sort of set off alarms and set off the warning signs for this club Moving forward into the future with Class A Hoey, what was your estimation of Emmanuel Class A in 2023 and what did you see go right and wrong for him?

Paul Hoynes (01:23): Joe, every time he took the mound, it seemed like it was a save situation. It was a one run ball game, and as well as I do, you’re sitting there in the ninth inning waiting for something bad to happen. I mean, you’ll have your story written, you’re waiting for just to punch the publish button, the send button, and it was like a five alarm fire drill. So thankfully, like you said, he saves 44 games, leads the big leagues and saves. Unfortunately, he also leads the big leagues in 12 blown saves. So he made me a nervous wreck. I mean, I aged I think five years last season,

Joe Noga (02:07): And that’s like the one quality that you don’t like to see in a closer is that uncertainty. In 2022, when he came out in the ninth inning, you could pretty much say it was over. There were very few instances where even in one run games where he wasn’t as effective, mainly because he would get at least one or two strikeouts per appearance or he was able to be effective in that way. It just seemed this year that more hitters were putting the ball in play against him, and it turned out to, it actually exposed a little bit of his lack of defense, his lack of ability to get off the mound and field those weak choppers. His stuff is really good. It’s still really good, and he’s able to get guys to hit the ball up the first baseline, but that means that he’s got to get off the mound and field the ball, and once that happened, we didn’t know where the ball was going.

Paul Hoynes (03:06): Yeah, they said if you’re a pitcher you got to be able to field your position. So Emmanuel had some problems with that. The opposition this past season, Joe hit 2 42 against him two years ago when he saved 42 games out of 46 chances the opposition hit 1 67 against him, and like we’ve talked about this before, when a guy throws his hard as Class A does, the hitters really don’t square those balls up. It’s always those funky little spinning 80 foot ground balls down the first baseline or a bouncer over the mound. All those hits that just drive you crazy but can cost you a ball game.

Joe Noga (03:55): Some of the statcast numbers bear out some of that. What you just described, his barrel percentage in 2022 when he was arguably one of the best closers in the game, one of the most effective closers in the game, his barrel percentage allowed was 2.2% in 2023, it was 5% in his average exit velocity allowed was among the best in baseball at 86.3% in 2022, that jumped up to 88.4% in 2023. The expected numbers, which are statcast factored in the expected ERA, his expected ERA as an all-star in 20 22, 1 0.97. That jumped significantly to 3.06 expected ERA in 2023. So yeah, he was getting hit and hit harder and hit more often, and his strikeout percentage dropped from 28.4% in 2022 all the way down to 21.2% in 2023. So yeah, those numbers bear out the fact that the hitters were able to maybe sit on some of his pitches, they knew what was coming, they were able to drive some of those fastballs and he was less effective in that way. My question is, do you think, and this was something that we wrote about during the season and a lot during the beginning of the season, do you think that the changes, the introduction of the pitch clock and the changes to some of the timing rules and the base running rules there had had a lasting effect on him throughout the year?

Paul Hoynes (05:47): I think early Joe, I think early in the season they did. He said they did. He had gotten into a habit Emmanuel had of when he made a bad pitch, he could walk around the mound a little bit and gather himself, but with the pitch clock, there was no time to do that, and it took him a while to adjust. There was also a question of his velocity that his velo had dropped early in the season that it wasn’t where it was in 2022, but he eventually corrected that the velo on his cutter, which is the pitch he threw the most cut fastball, was 99.1 this past season, it was 99.5 in 2022, so slider was basically the same, 91.1 2020 3, 91 0.9, 2022, and he hardly threw his forcing fastball this past season. It was just cutters and sliders,

Joe Noga (06:54): And that’s really where he profiles. It’s the cutters that has that good sinking heavy bowling ball sink to it and the slider, which has that breaking movement, and he gets a little bit of swinging and miss with that. His appearances over the last three seasons since 2021, he’s at 71, 77, 75 appearances. He totals 238, so he’s at about 200 and maybe 15 innings over that time For Cleveland. That’s a lot of pitches. That’s a lot of pitches thrown at high velocity. It’s one of the reasons why we think the guardians went out and made that trade for Scott Barlow to sort of fortify the back end of that bullpen, maybe take some of the pressure off of Class A. Do you think that the high number of outings for Class A over the last three seasons maybe is starting to get to him? Yeah,

Paul Hoynes (08:03): I do. Joe, I think he’s a human being. He’s not a robot, so I mean 223 appearances over the last three years, regular season appearances, he’s still got a 1.97 ERA as Cleveland’s closer. But listen to this, Joe, his month by month breakdown last season in September, I should say in August, the opposition hit 2 75 against him In September, the opposition hit 2 83 against him. Now he, he’s still cranking out the saves. He had eight saves in August, eight saves in September, but his ERA jumped from 2.92 in August to 4.63 in September. So I think in the last 28 games of the season one and two or last 28 days of the season, he goes one and two with a 5.59 ERA in 11 games has seven saves, but he gives up six earned runs in nine and two third innings. So I think the wear and tear kind of caught up to this guy and you hit the nail on the head, Joe when you said that’s one of the reasons they brought Barlow in,

Joe Noga (09:25): And if you want him to be more effective, you’re going to have to use him less often. And maybe that also is part of a problem with the offense as well. If you can use him in situations where it’s not a one run game and there’s no margin for error at all, and he’s not pitching those intense high leverage innings, but maybe you give him a three run lead heading into the ninth inning and he can give up a solo home run, maybe that affects the way that he can approach hitters and be a little more effective. And really it’s on the offense to sort of spread some of these games out as well, but that’s not something that maybe he can control. He just has to go out there and pitch the innings that he has to pitch. Despite all of that, again, he finished with a 3.22 ERA career best 44 saves.

(10:19): He becomes the first Cleveland pitcher with multiple 40 save seasons, so that’s impressive. He climbs, I believe he climbed up in the career save leaderboard for Cleveland. I think he passed Mike Jackson, he’s in fifth place right now. His 44 saves were the fourth most in a single season by Cleveland pitcher. Bob Wickman, Joe Browski had 45. Jose Mesa had 46 in 1995. So even with the wear and tear, even with the less than effective season with 12 blown saves, he still is carving out a place for himself in franchise history. It’s just how long is he going to be able to be this effective if he keeps getting used the way that he’s been used.

Paul Hoynes (11:14): Yeah, Joe, and last year Cleveland was 27 and 31 in one run games. I mean, the year before they played a bunch of one run games, so obviously that puts a lot of heat on the closer, Joe. I’m surprised he doesn’t look like you ever see the movie Slap shot, the goalie from Slap Shot when they brought him in the locker room. He’s like, he was like

Joe Noga (11:39): Stunned.

Paul Hoynes (11:40): Was stunned. I’m surprised that Class A doesn’t look like that, but he’s so kind of level, he doesn’t change. You never see him. The emotions one way or the other. He’s always pretty placid after games, before games. So he’s got that good attitude. That’s the kind of attitude you have to have as a closer. But Joe, I mean, you’re right, they have to improve this offense and give this guy a little room to work because if he does, he’s going to be, he’s one of the top closers in baseball, but we just got to figure out, they just have to figure out how to get him some help. And I think Barlow, that’s a good step. He’s going to help not only Class A, but Trevor Stefan as well.

Joe Noga (12:27): Yeah, would’ve been nice to maybe see the Make a run at Ronaldo Lopez who we saw as really super effective down the stretch for Cleveland after they acquired him from the Angels at the end of the season. It doesn’t look like they’re going to be able to afford or have really have any interest in bringing Lopez back, which he really would’ve slotted in nicely in front of Class A, but Barlow’s a good option there if you can’t necessarily get Lopez. So I think, yeah, it’s a matter of finding that right balance for him when he’s healthy, when he’s rested, when it’s the most effective and you can see it. He’s got all the tools there to be one of the all time greats in terms of the position. It’s just are you going to be able to get him through and have him not running on fumes by the end of the season and not have his arm fall off because he’s pitching so many innings. You mentioned his attitude and his approach. He’s very good in the clubhouse, he’s very approachable. The language barrier is there. However, he’s never ducked or turned away or shied away from when he doesn’t have an effective outing. He faces you and talks to the media. What do you like about Emmanuel Clase? I remember talking to him at the end of the season and talking about his farm back home and chasing after the chickens and riding the horses.

Paul Hoynes (14:05): Yeah, that’s right. I forgot about that. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, this guy, the story that always sticks out to me, I asked him once when Cleveland first acquired him from Texas, I go, I said, how did you know that you could throw this hard? Did you always have the strongest arm? How did you figure out that one day you were going to be able to throw a hundred miles an hour? And he said, well, where I grew up out in the country in the Dominican Republic, there’s a lot of coconut trees. And he said, my friends would always throw rocks at the coconuts up in the trees to knock ‘em down, but they called on me to throw the hardest so they could knock the coconut down. The other guys would loosen it up and he’d knock ‘em down. So that was a cute story, and it just, he’s a big strong guy and he looks like he could throw forever, Joe. But you’re right. I mean, you can’t throw 99 miles an hour. He does year after year after year without having something go wrong. I mean, I was looking at Mariano Rivera’s career, his appearances, and he’s never thrown this many appearances in a three year stretch. He’s never gone. I mean, maybe the postseason, because the Yankees were in the postseason a lot, but he’s never gone 75, 77, 70, that kind of thing. So I think they bear some watching and hopefully they can take a little bit better care of him,

Joe Noga (15:44): Right? Contract situation, contract wise, obviously he signed a deal prior to the 2022 season that keeps him in Cleveland based on what, there’s team options for 2027 and 2028, but he’s in Cleveland at least through 2026. The earliest he can be a free agent is 2027 with a $10 million team option that year and a $10 million team option the year after that. I got to believe if he continues on the trajectory in terms of appearances that he’s on, that by the time 2027 hits $10 million is going to seem like a lot for him just based on what he’ll be able to do physically. But if they get the 2027 and he’s taking care of himself and they’ve taken care of him, 10 million might be affordable for a guy who could be the all time franchise leader in saves by that time.

Paul Hoynes (16:48): Oh yeah, Joe, this is a club friendly deal from the get-go. I mean, I don’t blame Emanuel for taking it it as soon as he did, he had the one big year and they signed him. They signed him to the multi-year deal. So you got to get security. If you’re a pitcher, I think security is a huge thing, and I think it helps you pitch, it helps you. You’re not worried about, am I going to get released based on a poor start or poor appearance? But this is a deal. I mean, if he’s still the closer, by the time these options kick in, Joe, I mean he’s going to set the franchise record and saves so far out there. It’s going to be like a Bob Feller record. Nobody’s going to come close to it,

Joe Noga (17:43): Right? 2.9 million in 20 24, 4 0.9 million in 20 25, 6 0.4 million in 2026. That’s what the guardians are on the hook for him. $2 million buyouts in each of 2027 and 2028. So if a trade happens before then that goes, factors into all that. But again, very affordable. Considering the production that he’s been able to give you over these last several years. Looking ahead to 2024, what is an effective, what is a good 2024 season for Emmanuel Class A, numbers wise? Health, health-wise, productivity wise, if we’re looking ahead to what to expect from Class A in 2024?

Paul Hoynes (18:33): Well, I think just mean is he, Brian Shaw, the closer version of Brian Shaw? Give us another, can he give Cleveland another 75 to 77 appearances? I’m not sure, Joe. I know Frank Kona loved using me. He was the closer and Tito kept going to him. I don’t know if Vote is going to have a little different philosophy. He’s a bullpen coach with Seattle. He’ll know how to work a bullpen. So I think that’s going to be interesting. But what a good season looks like, I’d say anywhere between 35 and 45 saves 60, the 70 appearances. You’d like to see him strike out a few more batters, but when he’s going good, Joe, he’s getting early contact, he’s getting guys out and he really is not throwing that many pitches. So I don’t know if that’s going to be a big, I don’t think that’ll be a big change in his game.

Joe Noga (19:39): And that’s one thing that Tito said about him as he matured and as he learned himself that he knew exactly what he needed in terms of warmup pitches, how much he needed to throw to get loose and get ready so he didn’t overwork himself, warming up. And then that helped him be a little more effective. And like you said, some of those appearances, sometimes they were 10, 12 pitch outings, sometimes they were 30 pitch outings. You’d like to see a lot fewer of those 30 pitch outings to get through an inning for sure. But the strikeout numbers, they did dip last year, I think a good season, a good number of strikeouts. He had 77 strikeouts in 72 and two thirds innings in 2022. That dipped to 64 strikeouts in 72 and two thirds innings in 2023. So maybe significantly more, or at least somewhat more strikeouts than innings pitched would be a good barometer to go by.

Joe Noga (20:53): If he’s striking out at least three or four more than his innings pitch total is, then I think that’s a good season, something good to judge. I think good things would be happening for Class A in the future and there will be a future with Class A as we move forward.

Joe Noga (20:53): Alright, that’s going to wrap up our look at Emmanuel Kloe. Looking forward to the 2024 season. Don’t forget, two time all-star. He’s still a guy out there who can get it done and be effective for Cleveland’s bullpen. We’ll look forward to seeing that. Zi will also look forward to the next time we get together and talk about another player on the 40 Man. We’ll check in with you then.

Paul Hoynes (21:53): Alright, Joe.

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