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Childhood Vaccination Rates Were Falling Even Before the Rise of R.F.K. Jr.

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Childhood Vaccination Rates Were Falling Even Before the Rise of R.F.K. Jr.

After years of holding steady, American vaccination rates against once-common childhood diseases have been dropping.

Share of U.S. kindergartners
vaccinated against …

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Nationwide, the rate of kindergartners with complete records for the measles vaccine declined from around 95 percent before the pandemic to under 93 percent last year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Immunization rates against polio, whooping cough and chickenpox fell similarly.

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Average rates remain high, but those national figures mask far more precipitous drops in some states, counties and school districts.

In those areas, falling vaccination rates are creating new pockets of students no longer protected by herd immunity, the range considered high enough to stop an outbreak. For a community, an outbreak can be extremely disruptive. For children, measles and other once-common childhood diseases can lead to hospitalization and life-threatening complications.

Change in kindergarten measles vaccination rates

Prepandemic is the average of 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 data, though not all years were available for all states. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Delaware (in 2024) report the rate of students who have completed all required vaccines, not just the measles series. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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Immunization rates fell in most states early in the pandemic, and continued to fall in the years that followed.

States, not the federal government, create and enforce their own vaccine mandates, but the incoming Trump administration could encourage anti-vaccine sentiment and undermine state programs. The president-elect’s nominee for health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has spread the false theory that vaccines cause autism, among other misinformation.

But immunization rates had been falling for years before Mr. Kennedy’s recent political rise.

There are now an estimated 280,000 kindergartners without documented vaccination against measles, an increase of some 100,000 children from before the pandemic.

“These pockets are just waiting for an introduction of measles,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “It’s trouble waiting to happen.”

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Why rates are falling

As the pandemic strained trust in the country’s public health system, more families of kindergartners formally opted out of routine vaccines, citing medical, philosophical or religious reasons. Others simply didn’t submit proof of a complete vaccination series, for any number of reasons, falling into noncompliance.

The shifts in exemptions mostly fall along political lines. In states that supported Mr. Trump for president in November, the number of students with official exemptions have increased on average (rising everywhere but West Virginia). Exemption rates rose in a few states that supported Vice President Kamala Harris — including Oregon, New Jersey and Minnesota — but stayed relatively flat or fell in most.

Share of kindergartners with a vaccine exemption

Includes medical and nonmedical exemptions. Montana was excluded due to lack of data. Wyoming is missing data for 2017-18. Delaware is missing data for 2019-20. West Virginia and Illinois are missing data for 2020-21. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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The pattern for noncompliance looks different: The rate of children with no vaccination record shot up in both red and blue states.

Not all children with missing records are unvaccinated. Some are in the process of getting their shots, delayed because of the pandemic, and others just never submitted documentation. Schools are supposed to bar out-of-compliance students from attending, but whether they do varies from state to state and school to school.

Share of kindergartners with no recorded vaccination, and no exemption

Montana was excluded due to lack of data. Wyoming is missing data for 2017-18. Delaware is missing data for 2019-20. West Virginia and Illinois are missing data for 2020-21. Alaska is missing data for 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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Surveys reveal a new and deep partisan division on this issue. In 2019, 67 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners told Gallup that childhood immunizations were “extremely important,” compared with 52 percent of their Republican counterparts. Five years later, the enthusiasm among the Democratic grouping had fallen slightly to 63 percent. For Republicans and G.O.P. leaners it had plunged to 26 percent.

Today, 31 percent of Republicans say “vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they were designed to protect.” Just 5 percent of Democrats say the same.

“There seems to be a divide in terms of people’s feelings about science and skepticism towards the government,” said Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, chief medical executive for Michigan. “I think some of those divisions are becoming apparent in vaccination rates.”

Lawmakers in numerous states have tried to roll back school vaccine mandates, but most changes have been minor: Louisiana required schools to pair any mandate notifications with information about exemption laws; Idaho allowed 18-year-old students to exempt themselves; and Montana stopped collecting data from schools on immunizations.

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But there are a few places where state-level policy changes, or lack thereof, appear to have had a direct effect on rates.

In Mississippi, which had long held the country’s highest kindergarten measles vaccination rate, a federal judge ordered the state to allow religious objections; the state’s vaccination rate fell. In contrast, West Virginia’s governor vetoed a bill that would have loosened school vaccine policy; the state now has the highest rate.

Rates rose in Maine and Connecticut, two states that eliminated nonmedical exemptions during the pandemic. They also rose in Alabama, according to C.D.C. data, though the state declined to comment on why.

Vulnerable pockets

Epidemiologists say that when vaccination rates slip under 90 percent for measles, outbreaks become significantly harder to contain. At some point below that, spread becomes almost inevitable if measles is introduced.

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There are thousands more schools with vaccination rates below 90 percent compared with just five years ago, according to a New York Times analysis of detailed data from 22 states.

Change in share of schools with vaccination rates below 90 percent

*Texas counts districts, not individual schools.

Most states publish measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine rates, but several publish only how many students complete all mandated shots. Most states exclude schools with small numbers of students. Most states publish rates for kindergartners only; for several states, however, these rates represent entire schools. New York data excludes N.Y.C. public schools. Source: state governments.

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Schools with falling rates can be found in red and blue states, in large urban districts and in small rural ones.

Measles vaccination rates dropped from 83 percent to 75 percent in Yavapai County in Arizona; from 93 percent to 78 percent in Pacific County on the coastline of Washington; from 97 percent to 93 percent in Union County, N.J., just outside New York City — places that span the political spectrum.

These numbers capture vaccination rates only for kindergartners, often partway through the school year, so they include students who may have finished their vaccine series later or will go on to finish it. And across the U.S., most students remain protected against childhood diseases.

But high rates nationally don’t help places no longer protected by herd immunity, as evidenced by recent outbreaks of childhood diseases. Measles and whooping cough cases both climbed last year; polio partly paralyzed a man in New York in 2022.

Growing anti-vaccine sentiment is only part of the public health challenge. In the Minneapolis public schools, completion rates for the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine among kindergartners dropped from around 90 percent to 75 percent. The district’s exemption rate barely moved; instead, far more students had incomplete vaccination records.

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Few of those students’ families are strongly anti-vaccine, said Luisa Pessoa-Brandao, director of public health initiatives with the Minneapolis Health Department. Some are immigrants who moved into the district recently, missing either shots or records. Others missed regular doctor visits during the pandemic and got out of the habit of preventative care.

“I think we’re going to be catching up for a while,” Ms. Pessoa-Brandao said.

While vaccination rates were dropping in Minneapolis, they climbed in neighboring St. Paul Public Schools, from around 91.4 percent to around 93 percent, according to state data.

The district attributed the rise to strict new procedures started in 2021, including letters and phone calls to families in their native languages; more vaccines available on district grounds; and monthly compliance reports — an extra mile that not every district is able or willing to go.

There are still parents who opt out. But during a measles outbreak last year, a few changed their mind, said Rebecca Schmidt, the St. Paul district’s director of health and wellness.

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“The fear of measles,” she said, “is sometimes greater than the ease” of getting an exemption.

Data for all 50 states

Kindergarten measles vaccination rate

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. For some years in some states, the rate represents a complete vaccine series, not just the measles vaccine.

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Simple lifestyle changes could slash heart attack risk for millions, scientists report

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Simple lifestyle changes could slash heart attack risk for millions, scientists report

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Those at risk of type 2 diabetes may be able to prevent heart problems later.

A new study published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology discovered that lowering the blood sugar of those with prediabetes could reduce the risk of heart attack by half.

Diabetes researchers and endocrine experts across Europe, China and the U.S. investigated how bringing blood sugar back to normal levels affected the chances of heart problems later in life, based on a 20-year American study and a 30-year Chinese study, according to a press release.

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In both studies, the prediabetic participants were coached to make appropriate lifestyle changes to lower blood sugar (the amount of glucose in the bloodstream) through diet and exercise, also targeting weight loss.

Participants worked to lower blood sugar through diet and exercise targeted at weight loss. (iStock)

The researchers split the participants into a remission group (where blood sugar returned to normal) and a non-remission group, which included those still in the prediabetes range. They then determined who in these groups had died from heart disease or were hospitalized for heart failure.

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Participants who went into remission had a 58% lower risk of dying from heart disease and being hospitalized for heart failure. This group also had a lower risk of other major heart events and lower overall death rates.

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These heart-protective benefits lasted for decades after the program ended, the researchers found.

Those in prediabetes remission had their risk of a heart event reduced by more than half. (iStock)

“Reaching prediabetes remission is linked to a decades-long benefit, halving the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure in diverse populations,” the researchers commented in the publication of the study. “Targeting remission might represent a new approach to cardiovascular prevention.”

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In an interview with Fox News Digital, Dr. Andreas Birkenfeld, study co-author and professor of medicine at the University Hospital Tübingen in Germany, reiterated that reaching prediabetes remission is not only relevant for reducing the progression of type 2 diabetes, but may also be associated with a “meaningful reduction in… heart attack risk, cardiac death and heart failure.” 

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“Importantly, this underscores that prediabetes is a modifiable stage where timely, evidence-based interventions (especially lifestyle measures, and in selected cases, medication) can make a real difference,” he added.

“Reaching prediabetes remission is linked to a decades-long benefit, halving the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure in diverse populations,” the researchers commented. (iStock)

The study did have some limitations, including that it is based on analysis of trials not originally designed to measure cardiovascular outcomes, which means the results show association but cannot prove causation.

In addition, unmeasured lifestyle and health factors, population differences and lack of randomization for heart outcomes may have influenced the reduced cardiovascular risk, the researchers acknowledged.

“This underscores that prediabetes is a modifiable stage where timely, evidence-based interventions … can make a real difference.”

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Birkenfeld suggested that those with prediabetes should ask their doctors the following questions: “What is my current status? What is my personal cardiovascular risk? What is my target blood glucose level?”

Patients should also inquire about the frequency of testing for blood sugar and key risk factors like blood pressure, cholesterol and other related conditions, such as kidney function or sleep apnea, he advised.

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“If lifestyle changes aren’t enough or my risk is high, would medication be appropriate for me — and what are the benefits and downsides?” the researcher asked as an example.

About 98 million American adults, more than one in three, have prediabetes, according to CDC data. Eight in 10 of these adults are unaware that they have the disease.

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New Weight Loss Drug Beats Ozempic and Eases Joint Pain With ‘Insane’ Results, Doctors Say

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New Weight Loss Drug Beats Ozempic and Eases Joint Pain With ‘Insane’ Results, Doctors Say


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Major study reveals why COVID vaccine can trigger heart issues, especially in one group

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Major study reveals why COVID vaccine can trigger heart issues, especially in one group

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One of the most widely known risks linked to the COVID-19 vaccine is myocarditis, especially in young males — and now a new Stanford study has shed some light on why this rare effect can occur.

Myocarditis, which is inflammation of the heart, occurs in about one in 140,000 people who receive the first dose of the vaccine and one in 32,000 after the second dose, according to a Stanford press release. Among males 30 and younger, that rises to one in 16,750.

Symptoms of the condition include chest pain, shortness of breath, fever and palpitations, which can occur just one to three days after vaccination. Another marker is heightened levels of cardiac troponin, which indicates that the heart muscle has been damaged.

LOWER DEMENTIA RISK LINKED TO ROUTINE VACCINATION IN MAJOR NEW ANALYSIS

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In most cases, people who experience myocarditis recover quickly and restore full heart function, according to study author Joseph Wu, MD, PhD, the director of the Stanford Cardiovascular Institute and a professor of medicine and radiology.

One of the most widely known risks linked to the COVID-19 vaccine is myocarditis, especially in young males. (iStock)

“It’s not a heart attack in the traditional sense,” Wu told Fox News Digital. “There’s no blockage of blood vessels as found in most common heart attacks. When symptoms are mild and the inflammation hasn’t caused structural damage to the heart, we just observe these patients to make sure they recover.”

In rare cases, however, severe heart inflammation can lead to hospitalizations, critical illness or death, Wu noted.

Finding the cause

The new Stanford study — conducted in collaboration with The Ohio State University — aimed to determine the reasons for the myocarditis. The research team analyzed blood samples from vaccinated people, some with myocarditis and some without. 

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They found that those with myocarditis had two proteins in their blood, CXCL10 and IFN-gamma, which are released by immune cells. Those proteins then activate more inflammation.

COVID VACCINE UNDER NEW SCRUTINY AFTER STUDIES REVEAL POSSIBLE HEALTH RISKS

“We think these two are the major drivers of myocarditis,” said Wu. “Your body needs these cytokines to ward off viruses. It’s essential to immune response, but can become toxic in large amounts.”

In mouse and heart tissue models, high levels of these proteins led to signs of heart irritation, similar to mild myocarditis.

Prevention mechanism

“One of the most striking findings was how much we could reduce heart damage in our models by specifically blocking these two cytokines, without shutting down the entire (desired) immune response to the vaccine,” Wu told Fox News Digital, noting that a targeted, “fine‑tuning” immune approach might be enough to protect the heart.

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Myocarditis, which is inflammation of the heart, occurs in about one in 140,000 people who receive the first dose of the vaccine and one in 32,000 after the second dose. (iStock)

“This points to a possible future way to prevent or treat myocarditis in people who are at the highest risk, while keeping the benefits of vaccination,” he added.

The team also found that genistein, an estrogen-like natural compound found in soybeans, reduced inflammation in lab tests, but this has not yet been tested in humans.

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The findings were published in the journal Science Translational Medicine.

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“This is a very complex study,” Fox News senior medical analyst Dr. Marc Siegel told Fox News Digital. “Myocarditis is very rare, and the immune mechanism makes sense.”

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“Myocarditis is worse with COVID — much more common, and generally much more severe.” 

Wu agreed, adding that COVID infection is about 10 times more likely to cause myocarditis compared to mRNA-based vaccines.

‘Crucial tool’

The researchers emphasized that COVID-19 vaccines have been “heavily scrutinized” for safety and have been shown to have an “excellent safety record.”

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In rare cases, however, severe heart inflammation can lead to hospitalizations, critical illness or death. (iStock)

“mRNA vaccines remain a crucial tool against COVID‑19, and this research helps explain a rare side effect and suggests ways to make future vaccines even safer, rather than a reason to avoid vaccination,” Wu said.

“The overall benefits of COVID‑19 vaccination still clearly outweigh the small risk of myocarditis for nearly all groups.”

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The study did have some limitations, primarily the fact that most of the data came from experimental systems (mice and human cells in the lab), which cannot fully capture how myocarditis develops and resolves in real patients, according to Wu.

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“This points to a possible future way to prevent or treat myocarditis in people who are at the highest risk.”

“These findings do not change what people should do right now, because our work is still at the preclinical (mouse and human cells) stage,” he said. “Clinical studies will be needed to confirm whether targeted treatments are safe and effective.”

The researcher also added that myocarditis risk could rise with other types of vaccines.

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“Other vaccines can cause myocarditis and inflammatory problems, but the symptoms tend to be more diffuse,” he said in the release. “Plus, mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines’ risks have received intense public scrutiny and media coverage. If you get chest pains from a COVID vaccine, you go to the hospital to get checked out, and if the serum troponin is positive, then you get diagnosed with myocarditis. If you get achy muscles or joints from a flu vaccine, you just blow it off.”

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The study was funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Gootter-Jensen Foundation.

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