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AI identified these 5 types of heart failure in new study: ‘Interesting to differentiate’

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AI identified these 5 types of heart failure in new study: ‘Interesting to differentiate’

“Heart failure” is a catch-all term used to describe any condition in which the organ doesn’t work as it’s supposed to — but one person’s experience with the disease can be very different from someone else’s.

Researchers from the University College London (UCL) recently used machine learning — a type of artificial intelligence — to pinpoint five distinct types of heart failure, with the goal of predicting the prognosis for the different kinds.

“We sought to improve how we classify heart failure, with the aim of better understanding the likely course of disease and communicating this to patients,” said lead author Professor Amitava Banerjee from UCL in a press release announcing the study.

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“Currently, how the disease progresses is hard to predict for individual patients,” he also said. “Some people will be stable for many years, while others get worse quickly.”

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The five types of heart failure identified were early onset, late onset, atrial fibrillation (which causes an irregular heart rhythm), metabolic (linked to obesity but with a low rate of cardiovascular disease) and cardiometabolic (linked to obesity and cardiovascular disease), according to a press release on UCL’s website.

For each type of heart failure, the researchers determined the likelihood of the person dying within a year of diagnosis. The prognosis varied widely for the five subtypes, they found. (iStock)

“The five types of heart failure were on the basis of common risk factors, such as age at onset of heart failure, history of cardiac disease, history of cardiac risk factors such as diabetes and obesity, or atrial fibrillation (the commonest heart rhythm problem),” explained Banerjee in a statement to Fox News Digital.

For the study, published in the journal Lancet Digital Health, the researchers analyzed data from more than 300,000 U.K. adults aged 30 and older who had experienced heart failure over a 20-year period.

HEART DISEASE RISK COULD BE AFFECTED BY ONE SURPRISING FACTOR, NEW STUDY FINDS

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“Four methods of machine learning were used to cluster individuals with heart failure in electronic health data by their baseline characteristics,” said Banerjee. “The method and the number of clusters that ‘fit’ best to the data were selected.”

For each type of heart failure, the researchers determined the likelihood of the person dying within a year of diagnosis. The prognosis varied widely for the five subtypes, they found.

The five-year mortality risk was 20% for early onset, 46% for late onset, 61% for atrial fibrillation-related, 11% for metabolic and 37% for cardiometabolic, according to the press release.

Cardiac imaging

The main limitation of the new study from UCL was that the researchers didn’t have access to any imaging data, which is most commonly used to diagnose and predict risk in heart failure. (iStock)

For health professionals, Banerjee recommends that they ask their heart failure patients about common risk factors to help them understand the subtype they have. 

“Researchers also need to test how usable, generalizable and acceptable these subtypes defined in our study are in clinical practice,” he added. 

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“They should also consider whether studies such as ours, which use AI, can help inform a better understanding of disease processes and drug discovery.” 

The research team also developed an app for physicians that would enable them to determine which subtype of heart failure a patient has — with the goal of better predicting risk and keeping patients informed.

AI AND HEART HEALTH: MACHINES DO A BETTER JOB OF READING ULTRASOUNDS THAN SONOGRAPHERS DO, SAYS STUDY

Dr. Ernst von Schwarz, a triple board-certified clinical and academic cardiologist at UCLA in California, reviewed the results of UCL’s study.

“For clinicians, it is interesting to differentiate heart failure according to prognosis, which usually is not done in the clinical setting,” he told Fox News Digital. “Heart failure is generally seen as an incurable, chronic, progressive disease with poor long-term outcomes.” 

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“Heart failure is generally seen as an incurable, chronic, progressive disease with poor long-term outcomes.” 

“Studies like this might help clinicians make a more appropriate risk assessment according to the etiology of heart failure,” von Schwarz added. 

In particular, the very high mortality rate for atrial fibrillation-induced heart failure highlights the importance of aggressively managing this common arrhythmia, he said.

3D heart imaging

Researchers used machine learning — a type of artificial intelligence — to pinpoint five distinct types of heart failure. (iStock)

The mortality predictions for the five subtypes are “by far the most interesting part of this data,” according to Dr. Matthew Goldstein, a physician at Cardiology Consultants of Philadelphia, who also reviewed the study findings.

“This may help us guide who is at risk for dying suddenly, and thus, who needs protection with a defibrillator and who does not,” he added.

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AI shows promise, but limitations remain

While Goldstein recognizes that AI is becoming more common in general, he believes its application is medicine has shown “somewhat less success.”

He told Fox News Digital, “It is, however, good at looking for patterns that are too complicated for the human mind to see.”

AI TECHNOLOGY CATCHES CANCER BEFORE SYMPTOMS WITH EZRA, A FULL-BODY MRI SCANNER

“Some of the more common utilizations are automatic readings of radiology studies to make sure that nothing is missed and emerging use in EKG interpretation to suggest underlying pathology,” he added.

In terms of using AI to classify heart failure, Goldstein noted that this is only a retrospective study and will need to be proven for future cases in order to be truly useful. 

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Looking ahead

The main limitation of the new study was that the researchers didn’t have access to any imaging data, which is most commonly used to diagnose and predict risk in heart failure.

“However, imaging markers alone do not predict mortality and other outcomes,” Banerjee said. 

“The fact that we were able to use routinely collected data without this imaging data to predict subtypes and outcomes relatively well suggests that the imaging biomarkers alone may not be the best way to characterize and study heart failure at population scale.”

Heart doctor with patient

Using these findings as a foundation, Professor Banerjee of UCL said the next step is to determine whether these heart failure classifications can make a practical difference to patients. (iStock)

The next step, Banerjee said, is to determine whether classifying various heart failures can make a practical difference to patients — “whether it improves predictions of risk and the quality of information clinicians provide, and whether it changes patients’ treatment.” 

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Cost-effectiveness is another consideration, he added.

The UCL research team previously used similar methods to identify subtypes in chronic kidney disease.

Looking ahead, Banerjee expects that machine learning will be used to analyze many types of routinely collected medical data and to identify subtypes of different diseases.

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Cancer Remission Like Catherine’s Does Not Always Mean the Illness Is Cured

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Cancer Remission Like Catherine’s Does Not Always Mean the Illness Is Cured

Princess Catherine, wife of Prince William, reported on Tuesday that her cancer was in remission. But what does it mean to be in remission from cancer?

Doctors discovered her cancer unexpectedly last March when she had abdominal surgery. She has not revealed the type of cancer she has, nor how advanced it was when it was discovered.

But she did say she had chemotherapy, which she said had been completed in September. She told the British news agency PA Media that she had a port, a small device that is implanted under the skin and attached to a catheter that goes into a large vein. It allows medicines like chemotherapy drugs to be delivered directly to veins in the chest, avoiding needle sticks.

Catherine told PA Media that chemotherapy was “really tough.”

“It is a relief to now be in remission and I remain focused on recovery,” she wrote on Instagram.

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Her announcement “certainly is good news and is reassuring,” said Dr. Kimmie Ng, associate chief of the division of gastrointestinal oncology at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston.

But cancer experts like Dr. Ng say that the meaning of remission in a patient can vary.

In general, when doctors and patients talk about remission, they mean there is no evidence of cancer in blood tests or scans.

The problem is that a complete remission does not mean the cancer is gone. Even when a cancer is “cured” — defined as no evidence of cancer for five years — it may not be vanquished.

That makes life emotionally difficult for patients, who have to have frequent visits with oncologists for physical exams, blood tests and imaging.

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“It’s really scary,” Dr. Ng said. “The amount of uncertainty is very very hard,” she added.

But that ongoing surveillance is necessary, despite the toll it takes on patients.

“Different cancers have different propensities of returning or not returning,” said Dr. Elena Ratner, a gynecologic oncologist at the Yale Cancer Center.

As many as 75 to 80 percent of ovarian cancers, she noted, can come back in an average of 14 to 16 months after a remission, depending on the stage the cancer had reached when it was found and on the cancer’s biology.

“Once the cancer returns, it becomes a chronic disease,” Dr. Ratner said. She tells her patients: “You will live with this cancer. You will be on and off chemotherapy for the rest of your life.”

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Dr. Ratner’s gynecological cancer patients have to come back every three months for CT scans to keep an eye out for evidence that the cancer has returned.

“The women live CT scan to CT scan,” she said. “They say that for two and a half months, they have a wonderful life, but then, in time for the next CT scan, the fear returns.”

“It costs them — it costs them a lot,” she said.

“It’s awful, yet I am amazed every day by their strength,” she said of her patients.

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Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say

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Death Toll in Gaza Likely 40 Percent Higher Than Reported, Researchers Say

Deaths from bombs and other traumatic injuries during the first nine months of the war in Gaza may have been underestimated by more than 40 percent, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet.

The peer-reviewed statistical analysis, led by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, used modeling in an effort to provide an objective third-party estimate of casualties. The United Nations has relied on the figure from the Hamas-led Ministry of Health, which it says has been largely accurate, but which Israel criticizes as inflated.

But the new analysis suggests the Hamas health ministry tally is a significant undercount. The researchers concluded that the death toll from Israel’s aerial bombardment and military ground operation in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024 was about 64,300, rather than the 37,900 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

The estimate in the analysis corresponds to 2.9 percent of Gaza’s prewar population having been killed by traumatic injury, or one in 35 inhabitants. The analysis did not account for other war-related casualties such as deaths from malnutrition, water-borne illness or the breakdown of the health system as the conflict progressed.

The study found that 59 percent of the dead were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not establish what share of the reported dead were combatants.

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Mike Spagat, an expert on calculating casualties of war who was not involved in this research, said the new analysis convinced him that Gaza casualties were underestimated.

“This is a good piece of evidence that the real number is higher, probably substantially higher, than the Ministry of Health’s official numbers, higher than I had been thinking over the last few months,” said Dr. Spagat, who is a professor at Royal Holloway College at the University of London.

But the presentation of precise figures, such as a 41 percent underreported mortality, is less useful, he said, since the analysis actually shows the real total could be less than, or substantially more. “Quantitatively, it’s a lot more uncertain than I think comes out in the paper,” Dr. Spagat said.

The researchers said their estimate of 64,260 deaths from traumatic injury has a “confidence interval” between 55,298 and 78,525, which means the actual number of casualties is likely in that range.

If the estimated level of underreporting of deaths through June 2024 is extrapolated out to October 2024, the total Gazan casualty figure in the first year of the war would exceed 70,000.

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“There is an importance to war injury deaths, because it speaks to the question of whether the campaign is proportional, whether it is, in fact, the case that sufficient provisions are made to to avoid civilian casualties,” said Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist with an expertise in conflict and humanitarian crises and a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was an author on the study. “I do think memorializing is important. There is inherent value in just trying to come up with the right number.”

The analysis uses a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, which has been used to estimate casualties in other conflicts, including civil wars in Colombia and Sudan.

For Gaza, the researchers drew on three lists: The first is a register maintained by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, which mainly comprises the dead in hospital morgues and estimates of the number of unrecovered people buried in rubble. The second is deaths reported by family or community members through an online survey form the ministry established on Jan. 1, 2024, when the prewar death registration system had broken down. It asked Palestinians inside and outside Gaza to provide names, ages, national ID number and location of death for casualties. The third source was obituaries of people who died from injuries that were published on social media, which may not include all of the same biographical details and which the researchers compiled by hand.

The researchers analyzed these sources to look for individuals who appear on multiple lists of those killed. A high level of overlap would have suggested that few deaths were uncounted; the low amount they found suggested the opposite. The researchers used models to calculate the probability of each individual appearing on any of the three lists.

“Models enable us to actually estimate the number of people who have not been listed at all,” Dr. Checchi said. That, combined with the listed number, gave the analysts their total.

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Patrick Ball, director of research at the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and a statistician who has conducted similar estimates of violent deaths in conflicts in other regions, said the study was strong and well reasoned. But he cautioned that the authors may have underestimated the amount of uncertainty caused by the ongoing conflict.

The authors used different variations of mathematical models in their calculations, but Dr. Ball said that rather than presenting a single figure — 64,260 deaths — as the estimate, it may have been more appropriate to present the number of deaths as a range from 47,457 to 88,332 deaths, a span that encompasses all of the estimates produced by modeling the overlap among the three lists.

“It’s really hard to do this kind of thing in the middle of a conflict,” Dr. Ball said. “It takes time, and it takes access. I think you could say the range is larger, and that would be plausible.”

While Gaza had a strong death registration process before the war, it now has only limited function after the destruction of much of the health system. Deaths are uncounted when whole families are killed simultaneously, leaving no one to report, or when an unknown number of people die in the collapse of a large building; Gazans are increasingly buried near their homes without passing through a morgue, Dr. Checchi said.

The authors of the study acknowledged that some of those assumed dead may in fact be missing, most likely taken as prisoners in Israel.

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Roni Caryn Rabin and Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.

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Dementia risk for people 55 and older has doubled, new study finds

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Dementia risk for people 55 and older has doubled, new study finds

Dementia cases in the U.S. are expected to double by 2060, with an estimated one million people diagnosed per year, according to a new study led by Johns Hopkins University and other institutions.

Researchers found that Americans’ risk of developing dementia after age 55 is 42%, double the risk that has been identified in prior studies, a press release stated.

For those who reach 75 years of age, the lifetime risk exceeds 50%, the study found.

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Women face a 48% average risk and men have a 35% risk, with the discrepancy attributed to women living longer than men.

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Dementia cases in the U.S. are expected to double by 2060, with an estimated one million people diagnosed per year. (iStock)

The study, which was published in the journal Nature Medicine on Jan. 13, analyzed data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study (ARIC-NCS), which has tracked the cognitive and vascular health of nearly 16,000 adults since 1987.

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“Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55,” said study senior investigator and epidemiologist Josef Coresh, MD, PhD, who serves as the founding director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone, in the release.

Understanding risk factors

“One of the main reasons for the increase is that great medicine and tecnological advances are keeping us alive longer and age is a risk factor for dementia,” Dr. Marc Siegel, clinical professor of medicine at NYU Langone Health and Fox News senior medical analyst, told Fox News Digital.

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“Obesity is associated with inflammation, diabetes and high blood pressure, which are all independent risk factors for dementia.”

In addition to aging, other risk factors include genetics, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, unhealthy diets of ultraprocessed foods, sedentary lifestyles and mental health disorders, the release said.

“We have an obesity epidemic with over 45% adults obese in the U.S.,” Siegel noted. “Obesity is associated with inflammation, diabetes and high blood pressure, which are all independent risk factors for dementia.”

      

“And as an unhealthy population, we also have more heart disease, and atrial fibrillation is a risk factor for cognitive decline,” he added.

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Dementia risk was found to be higher among people who have a variant of the APOE4 gene, which has been linked to late-onset Alzheimer’s disease. Black adults also have a higher risk.

virtual volumetric drawing of brain in hand

Researchers found that Americans’ risk of developing dementia after age 55 is 42%, double the risk that has been identified in prior studies. (iStock)

Research has shown that the same interventions used to prevent heart disease risk could also prevent or slow down dementia, the study suggested.

“The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more health care services for those with dementia,” said Coresh.

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What needs to change?

Professor Adrian Owen, PhD, neuroscientist and chief scientific officer at Creyos, a Canada-based company that specializes in cognitive assessment and brain health, referred to the increase in dementia cases as a “tidal wave.”

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“This new study’s anticipated surge in dementia cases underscores the urgent need for early and accurate detection,” he told Fox News Digital.

“By catching issues early, we give people the power to make lifestyle adjustments, seek available treatments and plan their futures with clarity.”

“By identifying cognitive decline at its earliest stages, we have an opportunity to intervene before patients and families bear the full weight of the disease.”

Owen recommends conducting regular cognitive assessments as part of routine check-ups to proactively identify early signs of cognitive decline.

“By catching issues early, we give people the power to make lifestyle adjustments, seek available treatments and plan their futures with clarity,” he said.

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Man with doctor

“By identifying cognitive decline at its earliest stages, we have an opportunity to intervene before patients and families bear the full weight of the disease.” (iStock)

Maria C. Carrillo, PhD, chief science officer and medical affairs lead for the Alzheimer’s Association in Chicago, said there is an “urgent need” to address the global crisis of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia. 

To help keep the aging brain healthy, the Alzheimer’s Association published its report 10 Healthy Habits for Your Brain. Some of the tips are listed below.

For more Health articles, visit www.foxnews.com/health

– Participate in regular physical activity.

– Learn new things throughout your life and engage your brain.

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– Get proper nutrition — prioritize vegetables and leaner meats/proteins, along with foods that are less processed and lower in fat.

– Avoid head injury (protect your head).

– Have a healthy heart and cardiovascular system — control blood pressure, avoid diabetes or treat it if you have it, manage your weight and don’t smoke.

Man with Alzheimer's

Research has shown that the same interventions used to prevent heart disease risk could also prevent or slow down dementia. (iStock)

The research was funded by the National Institutes of Health.

Fox News Digital reached out to the researchers for additional comment.

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