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UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says

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UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says

Britain’s next government will need to fill a shortfall of up to £33bn in the public finances unless it is prepared to push through a fresh round of severe austerity measures, a thinktank has warned.

The Resolution Foundation said the debate between Labour and the Conservatives over the funding of specific pledges was “detached from reality”, with election promises based on cuts that would be hard to deliver.

The thinktank said both the main parties were committed to reducing debt as a share of national income within five years but higher interest payments on debts, slower-than-expected productivity growth and the £10bn cost of compensation for the infected blood scandal would make that more difficult.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s tax and spending watchdog, has estimated that the government is on course to meet its debt-to-GDP target with just £9bn to spare, but the Resolution Foundation said the winning party in the general election would face the choice of raising taxes or cutting spending to meet its debt target.

The thinktank said if the next government stuck to current spending plans the size of the deficit was likely to be about £12bn, but if it chose to spare prisons, the police and local government from fresh cuts, it could be as big as £33bn. In its annual health check on the UK economy last month, the International Monetary Fund warned of a £30bn post-election hole.

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James Smith, the Resolution Foundation’s research director, said: “The state of the public finances has dominated the election campaign so far, with the inevitable arguments over how each spending pledge is funded. But this narrow focus risks distracting the electorate from the bigger question of how each party would manage the uncertainties facing the public finances.

“This question is crucial, as whoever wins the election could be confronting a fiscal hole of £12bn, if today’s uncertainties turn into bad news after the election. And if the next government wants to avoid a fresh round of austerity, that black hole could rise to over £33bn.”

The budgets for NHS England, education, defence and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office are ringfenced, but this would result in inflation-adjusted, per-person spending cuts to unprotected departments – such as justice, the Home Office and local government – of 13% between 2024-25 and 2028-29. Cuts on this scale – equivalent to £19bn – would amount to repeating nearly three-quarters of the cuts made during the 2010-2015 parliament.

“Delivering these cuts in the face of already crumbling public services and the public desire for more, not less, spending on public services would likely prove very challenging,” the Resolution Foundation said.

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While the stated aim of both parties was to get debt falling, the next government could be on course to miss this target by more than £30bn. History and politics had left the fiscal debate “detached from this reality”, it added.

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Finance

Texas restaurants feel financial strain as costs continue to rise, report shows

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Texas restaurants feel financial strain as costs continue to rise, report shows

Texas restaurant operators are continuing to face mounting financial pressure as rising food and fuel costs impact businesses across the state, according to the latest quarterly economic report from the Texas Restaurant Association.

The association’s 2026 first-quarter report shows that many restaurant owners are struggling to keep up with increased operating expenses while trying to avoid passing those full costs on to customers.

“You know, what we’re seeing a lot of in Texas from these quarterly economic reports that we do is that food costs continue to rise,” said Texas Restaurant Association Chief Marketing Officer Tony Abroscato. “We all know that it’s up 35% since the pandemic. And so that’s an impact on our restaurant.”

According to the report, 77% of restaurant operators reported increased costs of goods, while 66% said suppliers have added fuel surcharges as gas prices continue to climb.

“We’re seeing that 90% of consumers start to adjust their habits based upon rising gas prices,” said Tony Abroscato. “Then also those gas prices impact the cost of food because everything is trucked and shipped and a variety of different things.”

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In addition to rising costs, labor shortages remain a major concern for restaurant owners. More than half of association members reported difficulties finding enough workers.

“You know, immigration is difficult and has had an impact on the restaurant industry, the farming industry, which again, then raises prices along the way,” said Abroscato.

Despite the financial challenges, the Texas Restaurant Association’s 2026 first-quarter report shows that Texas restaurants are only passing a portion of those increased costs on to customers while absorbing the rest through reduced profits.

Some restaurant owners have been making changes to adjust, like limiting menu items or even turning to QR code ordering, Abroscato said.

Copyright 2026 by KSAT – All rights reserved.

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Household savings, income and finances in Spain: how did they fare in 2025 and what can we expect for 2026?

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Household savings, income and finances in Spain: how did they fare in 2025 and what can we expect for 2026?

In 2025, GDI grew above the rate of average annual inflation (2.7%) and the growth in the number of households (1.3% according to the LFS), which allowed for a recovery in purchasing power. In this context, real household income has grown by 4.5% since before the pandemic, highlighting that households have continued to gain purchasing power in real terms.

The strong financial position of households is reflected not only in the high savings rate but also in their financial accounts. In this regard, households’ financial wealth continued to increase in 2025: their financial assets amounted to 3.4 trillion euros at the end of the year, versus 3.1 trillion at the end of 2024. This increase of 292 billion euros is broken down into a net acquisition of financial assets amounting to 95 billion, higher than the 21.5-billion average in the period 2015-2019, when interest rates were very low, and a revaluation effect of 194 billion. When breaking down the net acquisition of assets, we note that households invested 42 billion euros in equities and investment funds, just under 9.6 billion less than in deposits, while they disposed of debt securities worth 6 billion following the fall in interest rates.

On the other hand, households continued to deleverage in 2025, and by the end of the year their financial liabilities stood at 46.9% of GDP, compared to 47.8% in 2024, the lowest level since the end of 1998. This decline reflects the fact that, in 2025, households took advantage of the interest rate drop to prudently incur debt: net new borrowing amounted to 35 billion euros, representing an increase of 3.8%, which is lower than the nominal GDP growth of 5.8% and the GDI growth of 5.3%.

As a result of the increase in financial assets and the decrease in liabilities as a percentage of GDP, the net financial wealth of households recorded a notable increase of 7.3 points compared to 2024, reaching 156.8% of GDP.

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Finance

Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer touts ‘strong financial outlook’ in city’s budget proposal

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Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer touts ‘strong financial outlook’ in city’s budget proposal

FRESNO, Calif. (KFSN) — Mayor Jerry Dyer has unveiled his 2026- 2027 budget proposal at Fresno’s City Hall.

The overall budget total is $2.55 billion, with a majority of the funding going to public works, utilities, police and FAX.

The mayor also highlighted several investments, including a 10-year tree trimming cycle, the Homeless Assistance Response Team and an America 250 celebration.

Dyer says that despite some challenging circumstances, the City of Fresno’s long-term financial condition remains healthy.

“We’re pleased to say that based on increasing revenues and sound financial management, as well as a very healthy reserve, the city of Fresno has a strong financial outlook,” he said.

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Dyer’s office says the budget is a comprehensive financial plan that reflects the city’s ongoing commitment to the “One Fresno” vision.

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