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UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says

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UK faces £33bn hole in finances or return to austerity, thinktank says

Britain’s next government will need to fill a shortfall of up to £33bn in the public finances unless it is prepared to push through a fresh round of severe austerity measures, a thinktank has warned.

The Resolution Foundation said the debate between Labour and the Conservatives over the funding of specific pledges was “detached from reality”, with election promises based on cuts that would be hard to deliver.

The thinktank said both the main parties were committed to reducing debt as a share of national income within five years but higher interest payments on debts, slower-than-expected productivity growth and the £10bn cost of compensation for the infected blood scandal would make that more difficult.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s tax and spending watchdog, has estimated that the government is on course to meet its debt-to-GDP target with just £9bn to spare, but the Resolution Foundation said the winning party in the general election would face the choice of raising taxes or cutting spending to meet its debt target.

The thinktank said if the next government stuck to current spending plans the size of the deficit was likely to be about £12bn, but if it chose to spare prisons, the police and local government from fresh cuts, it could be as big as £33bn. In its annual health check on the UK economy last month, the International Monetary Fund warned of a £30bn post-election hole.

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James Smith, the Resolution Foundation’s research director, said: “The state of the public finances has dominated the election campaign so far, with the inevitable arguments over how each spending pledge is funded. But this narrow focus risks distracting the electorate from the bigger question of how each party would manage the uncertainties facing the public finances.

“This question is crucial, as whoever wins the election could be confronting a fiscal hole of £12bn, if today’s uncertainties turn into bad news after the election. And if the next government wants to avoid a fresh round of austerity, that black hole could rise to over £33bn.”

The budgets for NHS England, education, defence and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office are ringfenced, but this would result in inflation-adjusted, per-person spending cuts to unprotected departments – such as justice, the Home Office and local government – of 13% between 2024-25 and 2028-29. Cuts on this scale – equivalent to £19bn – would amount to repeating nearly three-quarters of the cuts made during the 2010-2015 parliament.

“Delivering these cuts in the face of already crumbling public services and the public desire for more, not less, spending on public services would likely prove very challenging,” the Resolution Foundation said.

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While the stated aim of both parties was to get debt falling, the next government could be on course to miss this target by more than £30bn. History and politics had left the fiscal debate “detached from this reality”, it added.

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Why doing everything right no longer protects Canadian families from financial triage

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Why doing everything right no longer protects Canadian families from financial triage
Two young children upset as parents fight at home.

It’s 2026, and most Canadian households aren’t asking how to get ahead — they’re asking how to avoid falling further behind. Fuelled by a quiet frustration and the common refrain behind this anxiety: If I’m doing everything right, why does it still feel like I’m losing ground?

For Stacy Yanchuk Oleksy, CEO of Money Mentors, that sentiment shows up daily in conversations she and her colleagues have with Canadians. These aren’t people who spend wildly; these are Canadians who have already cut spending, already tightened their budget and already done all the tasks required for responsible money management.

As Yanchuk Oleksy pointed out during an interview with Money.ca, the anxiety illustrates a subtle shift in how Canadians are handling the ongoing pressure of higher living costs, where families once talked about budgeting, now the discussion is brinkmanship — deciding what can’t be paid this month, not what should be paid.

These are the households already living lean — and still slipping.

For years, personal finance advice centred on discipline: Track your spending, pay down debt, avoid lifestyle creep.

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But many families have reached a point where discipline alone no longer moves the needle.

“For households already stretched, stability just means the pressure isn’t getting worse — not that it’s getting better,” explains Yanchuk Oleksy.

With interest rates staying elevated longer than expected and everyday costs still stubbornly high, the margin for error has disappeared. Even small disruptions — a car repair, dental bill or temporary loss of overtime — can tip a household from “managing” to “making trade-offs.”

That’s when budgeting turns into triage.

Read more: Canadians spent $183B on dining and clothes in 2024. Prioritize these 4 critical investments instead and watch your net worth skyrocket

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In practice, financial triage means deciding which obligations get paid first — and which get deferred.

“Families cut out anything non-essential — less food in the grocery cart, no dining out, pulling kids from activities, postponing travel — while still relying on credit to cover basics like utilities, school costs, or transportation,” says Yanchuk Oleksy. “Further down the line,” she said, “it looks like parents deciding which credit card or line of credit gets paid — and which one doesn’t.”

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Pinnacle Financial Partners Conference: CEO touts merger culture, 9%-11% loan growth, $250M synergies

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Pinnacle Financial Partners Conference: CEO touts merger culture, 9%-11% loan growth, 0M synergies
Pinnacle Financial Partners (NASDAQ:PNFP) executives emphasized cultural alignment, integration planning, and continued growth expectations following the company’s recently completed merger, during a conference fireside chat featuring President and CEO Kevin Blair and CFO Jamie Gregory. Culture int
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Why Most Millionaires Don’t Feel Wealthy — and What It Really Takes to Feel Financially Secure

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Why Most Millionaires Don’t Feel Wealthy — and What It Really Takes to Feel Financially Secure

(Image credit: Getty Images)

Becoming a millionaire was once considered a clear sign of financial success. Many view it as a milestone that promises comfort, security and even a sense of arrival. But for many Americans today, crossing the seven-figure net-worth mark doesn’t necessarily translate into feeling wealthy.

A growing body of research shows that many millionaires still worry about retirement, healthcare costs and whether their money will last. At the same time, Americans’ definition of wealth has shifted upward as inflation, longer life expectancies and rising housing costs reshape financial expectations.

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