Business
Trump immigration sweeps upended L.A.’s economy, with some businesses losing big
The first month of President Trump’s immigration crackdown in Los Angeles put a dent in the area’s economy, costing business owners millions in lost revenue and exponentially more in lost output from workers, according to a new county report.
The survey found that 82% of businesses reported negative impacts from the raids that began early last June and 44% reported losses of greater than half their normal revenue. More than two-thirds of respondents said they had changed operations, such as by reducing hours and delaying expansion plans. Some said they had to close temporarily or had difficulty obtaining supplies and services from usual vendors.
The report was prepared jointly with the L.A. County Department of Economic Opportunity; researchers from a nonprofit group called the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation conducted an online survey of hundreds of local businesses.
The survey is the latest evidence that the raids upended parts of the Los Angeles economy as some residents here illegally went underground and employers lost workers amid the arrests. It’s clear the immigration action hit some areas and sectors of the economy harder than others. Some communities were largely unaffected. But in immigrant communities such as downtown L.A., Boyle Heights and Santa Ana, merchants have reported impacts.
The report said some sectors, such as restaurants, construction and retail, would be particularly hard hit. But the authors said both employers and employees found innovative ways to keep going.
“How these businesses are adapting, it’s really a testament to their resilience,” said Justin L. Adams, a senior economist with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation.
According to the report, released this week, undocumented workers contribute an estimated $253.9 billion in total economic output, equivalent to 17% of L.A. County’s gross domestic product. These undocumented workers support over 1.06 million jobs and generate $80.4 billion in labor income across a range of industries, including construction, manufacturing, retail, and services, the report said.
But when masked agents with the Department of Homeland Security started roaming the Southland, targeting immigrants for deportation and arresting the activists and American citizens who followed them on their missions, businesses suffered as workers in the county’s underground economy went into hiding.
In the first week of June alone, when the raids began in earnest and the National Guard was deployed into the city with active-duty Marines, researchers estimated that the nightly curfew downtown resulted in an estimated $840 million in economic output losses, according to the report.
An analysis of L.A. Metro data, according to the report, showed that bus ridership on high-vulnerability transit lines around that time declined about 17,000 monthly riders compared with baseline levels.
“The out-of-control ICE raids are doing senseless and catastrophic harm to our country, and we are seeing the toll,” L.A. County Supervisor Janice Hahn, who lobbied to commission the report alongside Supervisor Hilda L. Solis, said in a statement.
Adams, one of the authors of the report, said researchers partnered with the USC Equity Research Institute to create an updated, current estimate of undocumented workers in L.A. County, finding it to be about 948,700.
With the county’s overall population at roughly 10 million, undocumented residents represent nearly 1 in 10 people, Adams noted.
“It’s pretty sizable,” he said. “They are going to have a large economic impact on the county.”
That businesses in the area have been hurt by raid-related disruptions is not necessarily surprising, Adams said, but the report “reinforced and helped quantify that.”
He continued, “It’s not straightforward to do, because this is essentially trying to measure a big portion of the shadow economy.”
About 311 people responded to the survey, but not everyone fully identified themselves, their business or its location, possibly out of concern for future immigration raids, Adams said.
Across some 178 interviews, business owners described seeing significant changes among consumers, including reduced spending and customers avoiding certain areas of the county altogether. Employees expressed fear about coming to work, productivity fell due to worker anxiety, and businesses faced difficulty finding replacement workers, the report said.
Owners described additional costs such as banking expenses for loans to cover lost revenue, more advertising and marketing to attract more business, boosted wages to attract replacement workers, and legal expenses to support detained workers. One business owner said she picked up a side job in order to keep her workers employed, while others had added expenses such as lunch deliveries or gas cards to help employees avoid open areas and public transportation.
For small-business owners, even small fluctuations in revenue can have ripple effects, affecting their ability to pay rent and vendors.
Ben Johnston, chief operating officer of Kapitus, a firm offering financing to small businesses, wrote in a memo describing expected trends in 2026 that he expects costs to continue to rise for the restaurant industry in particular, which already struggles with thin profit margins and relies heavily on immigrant labor.
“The crackdown on undocumented immigration weighs on the industry, further reducing margins for restaurants who are trying to keep menu prices as affordable as possible,” Johnston said.
The L.A. County report echoes findings by UC Merced researchers based on U.S. census survey data that found that the week after the raids began in June, the number of people reporting private sector employment in California decreased by 3.1% — an employment downturn matched in modern history only by the COVID-19 lockdowns.
Statewide, undocumented workers generate nearly 5% of California’s gross domestic product through their wages earned and the goods and services they help produce alone, according to a report last year from the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. That rises to 9% when additional business activity and other benefits of their labor are added.
With 2.28 million undocumented immigrants living in California, they represent 8% of workers in the state, with nearly two-thirds having lived in the state for over a decade. Their total contribution in local, state and federal taxes is $23 billion annually, according to the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.
In L.A. County, officials have sought to stem the bleeding from the immigration sweeps by launching a fund to deliver financial relief to small businesses. As of December, some 367 businesses have been awarded more than $1.53 million in grants. The county has also expanded potential paid hours for youth who have become primary earners for their families due to immigration enforcement and sought to connect these youth to employment opportunities.
Business
‘Minions & Monsters’ tops the box office, but with a lower-than-expected haul
The Minions took over theaters this weekend as Universal Pictures and Illumination’s “Minions & Monsters” won the top spot at the box office, though with a lower-than-expected domestic haul.
The animated movie, which follows the Minions’ takeover of Hollywood, took in $61.4 million in the U.S. and Canada for the five-day Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to studio estimates. That haul was lower than analysts’ expectations for a domestic opening of about $68 million. The movie’s three-day total was $36.4 million.
But the Minions performed well internationally, bringing in about $85 million. In total, “Minions & Monsters” made $159.9 million worldwide on a production budget of about $85 million.
The film is the latest in the powerhouse franchise that began with “Despicable Me” in 2010. Across its previous six installments, the “Despicable Me” and “Minions” franchise has made more than $5.6 billion at the global box office. The last movie, 2022’s “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” made more than $940 million worldwide.
“Minions & Monsters” marks the lowest opening for the franchise. Part of the issue could be timing — the box office can be negatively affected when the Fourth of July lands on a Saturday, said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak.
Walt Disney Co. and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” came in second at the box office this weekend with a domestic three-day gross of $31 million. Angel Studios’ biopic “Young Washington” ($20.8 million), Warner Bros. and DC Studios’ “Supergirl” ($9.6 million) and Universal’s “Disclosure Day” ($6 million) rounded out the top five, according to Rentrak.
The haul for “Minions & Monsters,” coupled with the strong holdover performance of “Toy Story 5,” proved again that family films are making a dent in the summer box office.
“Toy Story 5” has now brought in a total of $764.3 million worldwide, and last month, Universal, Illumination and Nintendo’s “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” crossed $1 billion at the global box office, becoming the first film of any kind to do so this year.
The rest of the summer theatrical lineup is also expected to bring in audiences and push domestic box office totals closer to pre-pandemic figures. Next week, Disney will release its live-action “Moana,” followed by Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” and Sony Pictures’ “Spider-Man: Brand New Day.”
To date, the summer box office is now about $2.3 billion, a nearly 12% increase compared with the same period a year ago, according to Rentrak data. Compared with pre-pandemic 2019’s numbers, however, it is still down about 7%.
Business
China-backed AI tool behind fake Brad Pitt fight making Hollywood inroads
Earlier this year, a widely circulated 15-second AI-generated video of Brad Pitt fighting Tom Cruise on a rooftop sparked outrage across Hollywood. One screenwriter called the cinematic clip “terrifying.” The Motion Picture Assn. demanded the company behind the artificial intelligence tool — Chinese tech giant ByteDance — halt its “infringing activity.”
Despite the uproar, the former majority owner of TikTok has quietly continued to court filmmakers, independent artists and executives who are eager to adopt the AI video generation model called Seedance.
Seedance was launched in the U.S. this spring at a Santa Monica event hosted by a group linked to the Chinese government.
ByteDance began hiring for 100 open roles, signed multiple independent filmmakers and artists and held private conversations about financing AI films. The company threw a lavish caviar party at Cannes and in May hosted panels promoting its cinematic tool at Amazon’s AI on the Lot event in Culver City.
“Like any new technology, Hollywood ultimately has no choice but to react to market realities. And that reality is that the new crop of AI-empowered Hollywood creatives see Seedance as having the most powerful video generator in the market right now,” said Peter Csathy of Creative Media, an entertainment and AI business advisory firm.
Joel Kuwahara, the animation producer on early seasons of “The Simpsons,” echoed Hollywood’s quiet embrace.
“Within the industry, I know that a lot of studios haven’t approved Seedance, but yet with a wink and a nod, they’re allowing Seedance to be used. … It’s kind of like a ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ kind of a thing,’” Kuwahara told The Times.
ByteDance declined to comment on its U.S. expansion.
The race to build the dominant AI video model has created a fierce rivalry, pitting U.S. companies against the fast-closing Chinese competitors. On the American side, there are Google Veo and startups such as Runway and Luma. OpenAI’s Sora has discontinued its video tool.
The Chinese challengers Seedance, Kling and Alibaba’s HappyHorse have rapidly closed the gap on cinematic realism and have upstaged their American rivals by undercutting them on cost.
According to Artificial Analysis, a company that tracks cost and performances of different AI models, China’s Seedance is currently the most cost-effective and high-quality option compared with U.S. competitors. Seedance costs $9 per minute for video with audio generation, significantly lower than the $24 per minute required by Google’s Veo model.
That makes it an attractive tool for independent filmmakers like Rupert Wainwright, who recently met with Seedance executives at AI on the Lot.
He wants to use the the tool to help make his feature-length film called “Sebastian,” about a Christian saint set in 3rd century Rome. The hybrid AI film will be shot partly on location in Europe and partly generated with artificial intelligence.
“It’s the equivalent to when streaming a movie over the internet onto your TV finally became possible,” Wainwright said.
Kavan Cardoza.
(Kayla Bartkowski/Los Angeles Times)
A scene from “The Chronicles of Bone.”
(Kayla Bartkowski/Los Angeles Times)
In May, Steven Schneider, the producer of “Paranormal Activity,” famous for its handheld grainy footage-style filmmaking, announced “Terrarium,” his first hybrid AI horror production. The film’s director, Jason Zada, said it will be entirely generated using Seedance’s model.
Zada’s filmmaking workflow involves writing, casting, prompting and editing all simultaneously, allowing him to rewrite scripts based on “dailies” generated by AI that day.
He estimates that generating 15 seconds of high-definition video costs only $5.
“We could go from a very detailed outline, very detailed characters and have it be a bit more fluid, because we could regen[erate] as much as we want,” Zada said.
Zada plans to shoot the movie first on a soundstage with real actors and will decide later which parts work better traditionally and what should be done synthetically. He’s a member of the Directors Guild of America and said he will be employing union actors for his hybrid AI film.
Seedance also has continued building ties by offering indie creators, AI-native studios and filmmakers free monthly credits and access to unreleased features. These “tastemakers” beta test its models, offer feedback on what works, and use it for their personal filmmaking projects — which creates corporate brand awareness.
Kavan Cardoza is one such breakout filmmaker. His AI fantasy series, “The Chronicle of Bones,” which uses Seedance, features half a dozen distinct storylines and an ensemble of characters. New episodes, each not more than 30 minutes, are released on YouTube once a month. The solo filmmaker averages 3 million views per episode and has cultivated a YouTube audience of 500,000.
Most filmmakers are tool agnostic, but lately Cardoza has become completely dependent on Seedance, he said, because it solves a persistent problem: maintaining character consistency between shots.
Kavan Cardoza unmasked.
(Kayla Bartkowski/Los Angeles Times)
To create one of his characters, “the last lost boy,” Cardoza took self-portraits wearing a three-faced mask and a tattered brown jacket. He used those reference images for the AI character and transforms them into a stylized person, with a personality, backstory and visual details. He fed those images back to Seedance to get consistent characters — repeating the process for each member of the cast.
“I can’t go get Brad Pitt because he costs like $5, 10, 20 million to be in my film,” Cardoza said. “I can probably get a synthetic actor that will act just as good as Brad Pitt in the future. That’s crazy to me.”
Cardoza has copyrighted his script and characters, and aims to eventually attract major studio interest to turn his intellectual property into a film which comes with a built-in fan base.
Such plans are likely to face resistance from the performers union SAG-AFTRA, which has decried the use of synthetic actors such as Tilly Norwood.
“The rise of Seedance comes down to [its] focus on pleasing filmmakers and making things that look filmic,” said Stephan Vladimir Bugaj, senior vice president of JioStar, a joint venture between Disney and India’s Reliance Industries.
ByteDance introduced timeline-based prompting so filmmakers can actually pick specific moments and tweak them, and improved the understanding of camera direction, physics, lighting and fluidity of action. All of this, Bugaj said, “unlocked a kind of spectacle filmmaking that the other models are not delivering quite as well.”
The company’s tool has been in such high demand, Zada said, that Seedance has been quoting some major Hollywood studios $2 million for unrestricted special access.
While acknowledging Seedance’s popularity and its U.S. expansion, Amit Jain, chief executive of Luma, said its ceiling in Hollywood is severely limited. Traditional studios might adopt Chinese models for some preproduction tasks such as concepting, but the geopolitical and intellectual property risks for commercial generations are too prohibitive.
“Can you imagine Disney using the ByteDance model for the next ‘Snow White’? No way,” Jain said. “This is not even a technical argument, really. That’s the reality.”
Luma has been making inroads into Hollywood selling its software but has separately funded a production service company to teach filmmakers to make hybrid AI films using its tools.
Despite conservative production budgets, AI spending by media companies is projected to grow from $2.6 billion to $12.5 billion from 2024 to 2029, according to a State of Generative AI Media report.
Kavan Cardoza flips through pages of his fine-art photography book.
(Kayla Bartkowski/Los Angeles Times)
Bugaj warned that the quality and competitive price of Chinese models should be a “wake-up call” for American players fighting for market share.
“We’re not loyal,” said Zada, the filmmaker. “Whatever is the best, we’re going to use it.”
Business
California is bringing back EV rebates. This is how to get one
Nearly a year after the expiration of a $7,500 federal tax incentive for new electric vehicles, California is stepping in to try to motivate buyers to go electric.
Gov. Gavin Newsom allocated $135 million in his new state budget to provide incentives for new and used EVs. Participating automakers will match the funds.
California leads the nation in EV adoption, though the market has taken a hit under the Trump administration.
The state budget — a more than $350-billion spending plan — went into effect Wednesday. The EV incentives will take effect in the coming weeks as the California Air Resources Board irons out agreements with dealerships.
Here’s what you need to know.
What are the incentives worth?
Senate Bill 168 tasked the California Air Resources Board with setting incentive amounts for new and used electric vehicles sold in California.
Eligible buyers will receive $3,500 off for new EVs and $1,750 off for used ones. Unlike the federal tax credits that expired in September, these incentives offer an instant discount and don’t require buyers to apply for credit later.
State funds will cover half of the incentive amount, and auto manufacturers will cover the other half.
The rebates will mean that most eligible buyers will effectively get between 4% and 7% of their money back.
For used EVs, “this incentive helps what’s already a good deal become an even better deal,” said auto analyst Brian Moody. “I think that’s the perfect use of these kinds of dollars.”
What are the rules and exceptions?
The new incentives can’t be used on all electric vehicles — they apply only to new EVs with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price of $50,000 or less, and used EVs with a sale price of $25,000 or less.
The $50,000 maximum rules out many options on the market, but legislation outlining the incentive program makes a special exception for California-based companies. Buyers purchasing a new or used EV from a company with headquarters in California can claim the discount regardless of the vehicle price.
That’s good news for Lucid, with headquarters in Newark, Calif., and for Irvine-based Rivian. Neither company currently offers new vehicles for less than $50,000. Rivian said it plans to launch a $44,990 SUV in 2027.
Who is eligible?
California’s new EV discounts are available only to first-time EV buyers, according to the legislation.
SB 168 says the buyer’s eligibility will be “confirmed by a buyer attestation” that they have not previously owned a zero-emission vehicle.
The new EV incentive is less than half of the federal incentive that expired nine months ago. Whereas the federal incentive may have been enough to spark interest in a range of buyers, Moody said the lesser amount will probably appeal mainly to people who already have their eye on an EV.
“I think you have to already be considering it, or in the market,” Moody said. “I think that the amount is just right for that.”
What are California’s clean car goals?
The incentives are intended to help California reach its electric vehicle and air quality goals as those targets have been under fire from President Trump.
Shortly after taking office, Trump signed an executive order that revoked California’s authority to set its own EV regulations, which included a goal of having 100% of new vehicle sales in the state be zero-emission by 2035.
California sued the administration in response. The state also has goals, including some that have been in place since 2012, that set declining limits on smog-causing pollutants and required automakers to sell increasing percentages of electric and hybrid vehicles through 2025.
In March, the administration filed a new lawsuit again trying to block California’s ability to set stricter-than-federal emissions standards for cars.
Early this year, California announced that more than 2.5 million zero-emission vehicles had been sold in the state since 2010, surpassing a target to put 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2025.
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