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The US sees the clouds of a financial crisis gathering on the horizon

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The US sees the clouds of a financial crisis gathering on the horizon

The longer interest rates remain high, the greater the risk of financial trouble. Joe Biden’s term in office began with the resurgence of a trend in inflation that had disappeared three decades ago, and it could end with a financial crash in the US. An office real estate crisis, a venture capital downturn, the risk of unlisted debt, Wall Street’s artificial intelligence bubble and abysmal deficits: The signals are proliferating, raising fears that the blue skies of full employment and growth might turn into storm clouds, brought on by persistent inflation and high interest rates, both slow poisons for the national economy.

The country got a taste of this in March 2023, when one regional bank after another went bankrupt for making rookie mistakes. They had made long-term investments with their clients’ funds and were then squeezed by the general rise in rates: Their customers withdrew their deposits to discover short-term remuneration equivalent to that offered by the Federal Reserve (Fed) – 5.25% per year – while the value of their long-term investments had fallen (when rates rise, the value of a bond falls to adjust in line with the market). The fire was put out by the Fed and J.P. Morgan, Wall Street’s “boss” in the event of a serious crisis.

One year later, high rates have continued to spread their venom. As is often the case, crises come as a surprise, emerging where no one saw them coming, often because the system is not transparent and does not allow for risk assessment. Private finance will feel the impact first – though not “private” as opposed to “public” (almost nothing is public in the United States), but rather as opposed to “listed on the markets.”

Read more Subscribers only Yellen says US ready to rescue other regional banks

The first issue is office real estate. The 2010s were characterized by a frenzy of construction, which crashed up against the wall of Covid-19 and the mainstreaming of remote work, especially in expensive cities such as New York, San Francisco and Chicago. With 110 million square meters of vacant office space in the country, landlords are caught between plummeting rents and occupancy rates and rising interest rates. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) examined securitized real estate loans, which account for less than 15% of loans but give a good indication of the state of the market.

Within 12 months, $18 billion (€16.6 billion) of securitized loans will have to be repaid – double the figure recorded in 2023. According to the WSJ, only 35% of the loans have been repaid at maturity as scheduled in 2024, compared with 99% in 2021. This is worse than the 37% repayment rate that was reached in 2009 in the wake of the great financial crisis, according to Moody’s Ratings. These non-repaid loans are not necessarily the result of bankruptcies, but renegotiations or extensions. Nevertheless, the tension is high.

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Finance

Texas restaurants feel financial strain as costs continue to rise, report shows

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Texas restaurants feel financial strain as costs continue to rise, report shows

Texas restaurant operators are continuing to face mounting financial pressure as rising food and fuel costs impact businesses across the state, according to the latest quarterly economic report from the Texas Restaurant Association.

The association’s 2026 first-quarter report shows that many restaurant owners are struggling to keep up with increased operating expenses while trying to avoid passing those full costs on to customers.

“You know, what we’re seeing a lot of in Texas from these quarterly economic reports that we do is that food costs continue to rise,” said Texas Restaurant Association Chief Marketing Officer Tony Abroscato. “We all know that it’s up 35% since the pandemic. And so that’s an impact on our restaurant.”

According to the report, 77% of restaurant operators reported increased costs of goods, while 66% said suppliers have added fuel surcharges as gas prices continue to climb.

“We’re seeing that 90% of consumers start to adjust their habits based upon rising gas prices,” said Tony Abroscato. “Then also those gas prices impact the cost of food because everything is trucked and shipped and a variety of different things.”

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In addition to rising costs, labor shortages remain a major concern for restaurant owners. More than half of association members reported difficulties finding enough workers.

“You know, immigration is difficult and has had an impact on the restaurant industry, the farming industry, which again, then raises prices along the way,” said Abroscato.

Despite the financial challenges, the Texas Restaurant Association’s 2026 first-quarter report shows that Texas restaurants are only passing a portion of those increased costs on to customers while absorbing the rest through reduced profits.

Some restaurant owners have been making changes to adjust, like limiting menu items or even turning to QR code ordering, Abroscato said.

Copyright 2026 by KSAT – All rights reserved.

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Finance

Household savings, income and finances in Spain: how did they fare in 2025 and what can we expect for 2026?

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Household savings, income and finances in Spain: how did they fare in 2025 and what can we expect for 2026?

In 2025, GDI grew above the rate of average annual inflation (2.7%) and the growth in the number of households (1.3% according to the LFS), which allowed for a recovery in purchasing power. In this context, real household income has grown by 4.5% since before the pandemic, highlighting that households have continued to gain purchasing power in real terms.

The strong financial position of households is reflected not only in the high savings rate but also in their financial accounts. In this regard, households’ financial wealth continued to increase in 2025: their financial assets amounted to 3.4 trillion euros at the end of the year, versus 3.1 trillion at the end of 2024. This increase of 292 billion euros is broken down into a net acquisition of financial assets amounting to 95 billion, higher than the 21.5-billion average in the period 2015-2019, when interest rates were very low, and a revaluation effect of 194 billion. When breaking down the net acquisition of assets, we note that households invested 42 billion euros in equities and investment funds, just under 9.6 billion less than in deposits, while they disposed of debt securities worth 6 billion following the fall in interest rates.

On the other hand, households continued to deleverage in 2025, and by the end of the year their financial liabilities stood at 46.9% of GDP, compared to 47.8% in 2024, the lowest level since the end of 1998. This decline reflects the fact that, in 2025, households took advantage of the interest rate drop to prudently incur debt: net new borrowing amounted to 35 billion euros, representing an increase of 3.8%, which is lower than the nominal GDP growth of 5.8% and the GDI growth of 5.3%.

As a result of the increase in financial assets and the decrease in liabilities as a percentage of GDP, the net financial wealth of households recorded a notable increase of 7.3 points compared to 2024, reaching 156.8% of GDP.

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Finance

Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer touts ‘strong financial outlook’ in city’s budget proposal

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Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer touts ‘strong financial outlook’ in city’s budget proposal

FRESNO, Calif. (KFSN) — Mayor Jerry Dyer has unveiled his 2026- 2027 budget proposal at Fresno’s City Hall.

The overall budget total is $2.55 billion, with a majority of the funding going to public works, utilities, police and FAX.

The mayor also highlighted several investments, including a 10-year tree trimming cycle, the Homeless Assistance Response Team and an America 250 celebration.

Dyer says that despite some challenging circumstances, the City of Fresno’s long-term financial condition remains healthy.

“We’re pleased to say that based on increasing revenues and sound financial management, as well as a very healthy reserve, the city of Fresno has a strong financial outlook,” he said.

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Dyer’s office says the budget is a comprehensive financial plan that reflects the city’s ongoing commitment to the “One Fresno” vision.

Copyright © 2026 KFSN-TV. All Rights Reserved.

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