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Presidential elections influencing financial strategies, economic forecasts for US – Times of India

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Presidential elections influencing financial strategies, economic forecasts for US – Times of India
NEW DELHI: The main focus of the US economy has shifted to the 2024 presidential election, as central banks are cutting rates and politicians are spending more, creating optimism for the election year.
According to a report by Saxo, an investment bank, on the Quarterly Outlook for Q2 2024 of the US economy, the economic data is strong in the first quarter but signs of weakness are emerging.
“US economic data has been strong in the first quarter, but signs of weakness are emerging, potentially marking a turning point for the US economy,” the report notes.
A recurring theme in the report is the significant impact of the 2024 US election on investor sentiment and market behaviour. The election is not only dominating headlines but also influencing financial strategies and economic forecasts.
The report points out that the US government’s substantial debt issuance since 2022, amounting to USD 3 trillion, has resulted in only USD 2.4 trillion in nominal GDP growth. While this strategy has prevented an official recession, it has not led to sustainable economic growth, raising concerns about the long-term health of the economy.
The report emphasizes the importance of developments in central bank policies, commodity markets, and currency dynamics, which are expected to impact investment strategies in the coming months. As central banks consider rate cuts and adjustments to their balance sheets, the report urges investors to navigate the evolving market conditions strategically.
“A slowdown in economic growth and a gradual decrease in inflation will give central banks the opportunity to dial back on their tight monetary policies and implement rate cuts as soon as in the second quarter of the year, building the case for a portfolio’s extension in duration,” the report states.
The report identifies opportunities in sectors like energy, healthcare, and financials but also warns of risks in the technology and real estate sectors.
According to the report, the convergence of generative AI and innovative obesity drugs has sparked significant interest, leading to speculative investments and driving companies like Nvidia and Novo Nordisk to new heights.
Despite this, the report advises investors to remain cautious as the inflated equity valuations could result in lower returns moving forward.
The election remains a crucial factor, with central banks ready to cut rates at any sign of weakness and politicians eager to spend, creating an environment ripe for “better-than-expected” economic data, which fuels election-year optimism.
Despite the government’s significant debt issuance, which has maintained a perception of positive economic data, the report states that the lack of long-term economic expansion is a concern.
The report also highlights the need for prudent decision-making to effectively navigate the complexities of the Q2 2024 market environment.

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Car owned by Finance Ministry involved in suspected hit-and-run death

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Car owned by Finance Ministry involved in suspected hit-and-run death

A car owned by the Finance Ministry fatally hit a pedestrian on a road near the Diet building in Tokyo on Thursday before overturning while driving away from the site, police said.

The police arrested Nobuhide Nohata, 55, who drove the car, at the site, also near the prime minister’s office. He works for a company commissioned by the ministry, according to the police.

The 67-year-old pedestrian was confirmed dead after being taken to a hospital, said the police. He was struck by the car at around 5:40 p.m. while walking on a pedestrian crossing.

The vehicle continued to drive for several hundred meters before colliding with a car waiting at an intersection, they said. It then made a right turn and overturned, with part of its body resting on a sidewalk.

Photo taken on June 20, 2024, shows an overturned car near the parliament building in Tokyo. (Kyodo)

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“When I tried to turn right at the intersection, I was rear-ended,” a man who was driving the car that was hit said. “When I got out, I saw the vehicle overturned. I was left upset by what happened in a split second.”

 

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Beware finance bros: AI is coming for banking before any other kinds of jobs, Citigroup warns

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Beware finance bros: AI is coming for banking before any other kinds of jobs, Citigroup warns

Bad news for the one percent: According to a new exhaustive report from Citigroup, finance is on track to bear the brunt of AI-related displacement.

AI will “profoundly change money,” the 124-page report declares in its introductory paragraph. Sure, it creates “new opportunities for growth and innovation, often improving our overall quality of life,” Citigroup says. But it also “destroys” and creates plenty of “losers.” 

Wall Street bankers might just be chief among them. Nearly seven in 10 banking jobs (67%) have “higher potential” to be changed or even fully outsourced by AI, Citigroup wrote, drawing on data from Accenture and the World Economic Forum. That’s the highest share of any job they studied. Industries following just behind are insurance, software, and capital markets. (Perhaps to be expected, utilities and natural resources round out the bottom of the list.)

“Traditional AI adoption in financial services [is] widespread, shallow, and inconsequential,” Shameek Kundu, chief strategy officer and head of financial services at AI observability platform TruEra, wrote in the report.

The good news, however, is that AI implementation more broadly stands to hugely benefit banks and financial institutions. It may not even hurt total headcount, once requisite AI-related management hires are accounted for. 

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After all, AI is hardly sophisticated enough at this stage to operate independently. A “bot-powered world,” as Citigroup puts it, would still struggle with compliance, data security, and basic ethics, as “AI models are known to hallucinate and create information that does not exist.” Hardly a minor business risk. 

Indeed, AI could add $170 billion to the profit pool for the banking sector globally by 2028. And the banks know it, even if they’re hesitant to deploy the technology. Almost all (93%) of financial institution respondents to a recent Citi client survey said AI adoption would improve their profitability in the next five years—mainly because of its ability to automate rote tasks human workers are currently saddled with, like data entry and dreaded Excel files. 

Despite the measurable upside—which many other industries have long since embraced—Citigroup predicts financial services will be dragging its feet, slow on the AI uptake compared with other sectors. Citigroup chalks that up to the sector’s “highly regulated nature” and lack of globally agreed-upon rules. “Bankers may think that they lead the way,” Citigroup writes, “but many users are adopting technology faster than banks or big business,” a phenomenon it characterizes as “the crowds running ahead of the crown.”

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ESG round-up: Australia publishes sustainable finance roadmap

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ESG round-up: Australia publishes sustainable finance roadmap

The Australian government has published a sustainable finance roadmap, setting out timelines for a series of key policy pillars and regulatory moves. Among the topics covered are mandatory climate-related financial disclosures, taxonomy implementation and developing sustainable product labels.

Kristy Graham, CEO of the Australian Sustainable Finance Institute, said the roadmap provided “welcome clarity” and praised the mentions of nature and climate adaptation in the roadmap.

Aegon UK is set to switch 74 percent of the £12 billion ($15 billion; €14 billion) largest default fund of its workplace pension offering into decarbonising mandates. The allocations, which will be managed by BlackRock, cover passive equity and debt investments, with the switch set to be made by the end of this year. The funds have an initial reduction in emissions intensity against their benchmark followed by 7 percent year-on-year reductions, and are set to also have a 20 percent improvement in taxonomy-aligned green revenues.

The fund will also begin investing in private assets, with allocations to private debt and alternative fixed income to be managed Aegon’s asset management wing. Infrastructure, private equity and forestry assets will be managed by JPMorgan Asset Management. Lorna Blyth, head of investment propositions at Aegon, said the move would “significantly support” the firm’s desire to put £500 million into climate solutions by 2026.

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Dutch pension funds have cut their investments in fossil fuel producers by just over two-thirds since the Paris Agreement, according to new analysis by a coalition of Dutch NGOs. The group looked at seven of the largest funds, which together manage around 70 percent of Dutch pension assets, and found that holdings in fossil companies had fallen from €15.5 billion in 2017 to €5.0 billion in 2023. PME, the pension scheme for the mechanical and electrical engineering sector, and civil service pension scheme ABP have seen the largest contraction in holdings, ditching 92 percent and 81 percent respectively.

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority has one active enforcement case against a company on climate grounds, according to a freedom of information request filed by legal group ClientEarth. Documents shared with lawmakers this year show that the issues in the case “had been a matter of supervisory focus with the firm for more than two years” before the investigation was opened.

Commerzbank has described proposals put forward by the EU’s financial regulators to reform SFDR as “promising” but said there were some aspects that could be developed further. A note from the bank’s head of ESG research, Stephan Kippe, said the product category proposals should address the main shortcomings of the current framework. He added that there should be a separate impact category, and designing a framework for transition criteria “could prove challenging”.

Planet Tracker has accused the plastic industry of engaging in greenwashing due to its promotion of recycling as the “silver bullet” to the plastic pollution crisis, in a new report. “The plastic industry’s tactics have successfully shifted focus away from upstream measures, such as limiting production and adopting alternative materials,” said John Willis, director of research at Planet Tracker. “By promoting the illusion of recyclability, the industry has effectively passed the financial burden of waste treatment onto local municipalities and waste-pickers, often the financially weakest link in the plastic supply chain.” In May, Responsible Investor spoke to investors who are ramping up engagement with companies on the issue.

Crédit Agricole’s wealth management arm Indosuez has launched an Article 9 green bond fund. The fund, a 2028 fixed maturity fund, invests in around 60 ICMA-aligned green bonds across a broad sector and geographical range.

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The Society of Pension Professionals has published a practical guide for UK trustees to engage with their asset managers on ESG. The guide aims to provide an outline of various disclosure requirements, ESG obligations for managers, and information that trustees need from them. Sophia Singleton, the society’s president, said there was “still some uncertainty” around the topic and that the guide aimed to raise awareness and understanding.

The number of companies disclosing a transition plan that they regard as 1.5C-aligned has increased 44 percent since 2022, according to CDP, the environmental data disclosure nonprofit. One-quarter of companies (5,906) that disclosure to CDP report having climate transition plans in place last year. But just 1 percent of firms report against all 21 climate transition plan indicators in CDP’s questionnaire. 

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has published revised guidance on how central banks should disclose climate-related information. The updates to the guidance, first issued in 2021, introduce two tiers for disclosure: “baseline”, for foundational information that supervisors should disclose; and “building blocks”, for more “advanced pieces of information that central banks ‘are encouraged to’ disclose”. Building block KPIs tabled by the NGFS include forward-looking metrics for physical and transition risks, and their external communications strategy for raising awareness on climate risks.

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