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Presidential elections influencing financial strategies, economic forecasts for US – Times of India

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Presidential elections influencing financial strategies, economic forecasts for US – Times of India
NEW DELHI: The main focus of the US economy has shifted to the 2024 presidential election, as central banks are cutting rates and politicians are spending more, creating optimism for the election year.
According to a report by Saxo, an investment bank, on the Quarterly Outlook for Q2 2024 of the US economy, the economic data is strong in the first quarter but signs of weakness are emerging.
“US economic data has been strong in the first quarter, but signs of weakness are emerging, potentially marking a turning point for the US economy,” the report notes.
A recurring theme in the report is the significant impact of the 2024 US election on investor sentiment and market behaviour. The election is not only dominating headlines but also influencing financial strategies and economic forecasts.
The report points out that the US government’s substantial debt issuance since 2022, amounting to USD 3 trillion, has resulted in only USD 2.4 trillion in nominal GDP growth. While this strategy has prevented an official recession, it has not led to sustainable economic growth, raising concerns about the long-term health of the economy.
The report emphasizes the importance of developments in central bank policies, commodity markets, and currency dynamics, which are expected to impact investment strategies in the coming months. As central banks consider rate cuts and adjustments to their balance sheets, the report urges investors to navigate the evolving market conditions strategically.
“A slowdown in economic growth and a gradual decrease in inflation will give central banks the opportunity to dial back on their tight monetary policies and implement rate cuts as soon as in the second quarter of the year, building the case for a portfolio’s extension in duration,” the report states.
The report identifies opportunities in sectors like energy, healthcare, and financials but also warns of risks in the technology and real estate sectors.
According to the report, the convergence of generative AI and innovative obesity drugs has sparked significant interest, leading to speculative investments and driving companies like Nvidia and Novo Nordisk to new heights.
Despite this, the report advises investors to remain cautious as the inflated equity valuations could result in lower returns moving forward.
The election remains a crucial factor, with central banks ready to cut rates at any sign of weakness and politicians eager to spend, creating an environment ripe for “better-than-expected” economic data, which fuels election-year optimism.
Despite the government’s significant debt issuance, which has maintained a perception of positive economic data, the report states that the lack of long-term economic expansion is a concern.
The report also highlights the need for prudent decision-making to effectively navigate the complexities of the Q2 2024 market environment.

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This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise

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This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise

Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026. 

The military’s regularly occurring pay raises provide an opportunity that many civilians only dream of. Not only do the annual percentage increases troops receive each January provide frequent chances to rebalance financial priorities — savings vs. current standard of living — so do time-in-service increases for every two years of military service, not to mention promotions.

Two experts in military pay and personal finance — a retired admiral and a retired general, each at the head of their respective military mutual aid associations — advised taking a similarly predictable approach to managing each new raise: 

Cut it in half.

In one variation of the strategy, a service member simply adds to their savings: whatever it is they prioritize. In the other, consistent increases in retirement contributions soon add up to a desirable threshold.

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Rainy Day Fund

The active military’s 3.8% pay raise in 2026 came in a percentage point higher than retirees and disabled veterans received, meaning troops “should be able to afford the market basket of goods that the average American is afforded,” said Michael Meese, a retired Army brigadier general and president of Armed Forces Mutual.

While the veterans’ lower rate relies exclusively on the rate of inflation, Congress has the option to offer more; and in doing so is making up for recent years when the pay raise didn’t keep up with unusually high inflation, Meese said.

“So this is helping us catch up a little bit.”

He also speculated that the government shutdown “upset a lot of people” and that widespread support of the 3.8% raise across party lines and in both houses of Congress showed “that it has confidence in the military and wants to take care of the military and restore government credibility with service men and women,” Meese said.

His suggestion for managing pay raises: 

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“If you’ve been living already without the pay raise and now you see this pay raise, if you can,” Meese advised, “I always said … you should save half and spend half,” Meese said. “That way, you don’t instantly increase your spending habits just because you see more money at the end of the month.” 

A service member who makes only $1,000 every two weeks, for example, gets another $38 every two weeks starting this month. Put $19 into savings, and you can put the other $19 toward “beer and pizza or whatever you’re going to do,” Meese said.

“That way you’re putting money away for a rainy day,” he said — to help prepare for a vacation, for example, “so you’re not putting those on a credit card.” If you set aside only $25 more per pay period, “at the end of the year, you’ve got an extra $300 in there, and that may be great for Christmas vacation or Christmas presents or something like that.”

Retirement Strategy

Brian Luther, retired rear admiral and the president and chief executive officer of Navy Mutual, recognizes that “personal finance is personal” — in other words, “every situation is different.” Nevertheless, he insists that “everyone should have a plan” that includes: 

  • What your cash flow is
  • Where your money is going
  • Where you need to go in the future

But even if you don’t know a lot of those details, Luther said, the most important thing:

Luther also advised an approach based on cutting the 3.8% pay raise in half, keeping half for expenses and putting the other half into the Thrift Savings Plan. Then “that pay will work for you until you need it in retirement,” Luther said. With every subsequent increase, put half into the TSP until you’re setting aside a full 15% of your pay. 

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For a relatively young service member, “Once you hit 15%, and [with] the 5% match from the government, that’s enough for your future,” Luther said. 

Previously in this series:

Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees

Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements

Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?

Get the Latest Financial Tips

Whether you’re trying to balance your budget, build up your credit, select a good life insurance program or are gearing up for a home purchase, Military.com has you covered. Subscribe to Military.com and get the latest military benefit updates and tips delivered straight to your inbox.

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Tech trade needs 2 things to remain 'in favor' this year

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Tech trade needs 2 things to remain 'in favor' this year
MJP Wealth Advisors chief investment officer Brian Vendig sits down with Morning Brief host Julie Hyman to discuss the tech trade’s (XLK) outlook for 2026. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief.
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Promising UK Penny Stocks To Watch In January 2026

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Promising UK Penny Stocks To Watch In January 2026
The UK market has recently faced challenges, with the FTSE 100 index experiencing declines due to weak trade data from China, highlighting global economic interdependencies. Despite these broader market pressures, investors may find intriguing opportunities in penny stocks—smaller or newer companies that can offer a mix of affordability and growth potential. While the term ‘penny stocks’ might seem outdated, their potential remains significant for those seeking financial strength and…
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