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Presidential elections influencing financial strategies, economic forecasts for US – Times of India

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Presidential elections influencing financial strategies, economic forecasts for US – Times of India
NEW DELHI: The main focus of the US economy has shifted to the 2024 presidential election, as central banks are cutting rates and politicians are spending more, creating optimism for the election year.
According to a report by Saxo, an investment bank, on the Quarterly Outlook for Q2 2024 of the US economy, the economic data is strong in the first quarter but signs of weakness are emerging.
“US economic data has been strong in the first quarter, but signs of weakness are emerging, potentially marking a turning point for the US economy,” the report notes.
A recurring theme in the report is the significant impact of the 2024 US election on investor sentiment and market behaviour. The election is not only dominating headlines but also influencing financial strategies and economic forecasts.
The report points out that the US government’s substantial debt issuance since 2022, amounting to USD 3 trillion, has resulted in only USD 2.4 trillion in nominal GDP growth. While this strategy has prevented an official recession, it has not led to sustainable economic growth, raising concerns about the long-term health of the economy.
The report emphasizes the importance of developments in central bank policies, commodity markets, and currency dynamics, which are expected to impact investment strategies in the coming months. As central banks consider rate cuts and adjustments to their balance sheets, the report urges investors to navigate the evolving market conditions strategically.
“A slowdown in economic growth and a gradual decrease in inflation will give central banks the opportunity to dial back on their tight monetary policies and implement rate cuts as soon as in the second quarter of the year, building the case for a portfolio’s extension in duration,” the report states.
The report identifies opportunities in sectors like energy, healthcare, and financials but also warns of risks in the technology and real estate sectors.
According to the report, the convergence of generative AI and innovative obesity drugs has sparked significant interest, leading to speculative investments and driving companies like Nvidia and Novo Nordisk to new heights.
Despite this, the report advises investors to remain cautious as the inflated equity valuations could result in lower returns moving forward.
The election remains a crucial factor, with central banks ready to cut rates at any sign of weakness and politicians eager to spend, creating an environment ripe for “better-than-expected” economic data, which fuels election-year optimism.
Despite the government’s significant debt issuance, which has maintained a perception of positive economic data, the report states that the lack of long-term economic expansion is a concern.
The report also highlights the need for prudent decision-making to effectively navigate the complexities of the Q2 2024 market environment.

Finance

From employee perks to asset management: Hitechzone expands into finance | CTech

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From employee perks to asset management: Hitechzone expands into finance | CTech

The consumer club Hitechzone and the financial firm Mor Langermann are acquiring control of the investment house Kivun at a valuation of NIS 5 million. In the first stage, the two acquiring entities will each hold 30% of the company (60% in total). They will later be joined by Gabi Dishi, one of the owners of hedge fund firm Alpha, who will initially hold 9%, with the option to increase his stake to up to 20%.

The agreement also includes an option to raise the combined holding to 83%. In addition, capital will be injected into the investment house to support growth and expand its operations. The transaction is expected to close within the coming month.

Kivun is currently owned by founder Beni Mozes (40%), Dr. Jan Reuven (16%), CEO Avi Meir (5%), and additional minority shareholders. The acquiring group will purchase all of Mozes’ shares, part of Reuven’s holdings, and the remaining shares from smaller investors. Mozes, aged 83, has been seeking a buyer for his stake for the past year. Despite the change in control, Mozes and Meir are expected to continue managing the company’s mutual funds and portfolio management activities. Mozes declined to comment on the deal but confirmed that control is being sold.

The company manages approximately NIS 350 million in assets, of which about NIS 250 million is in mutual funds, with the remainder in managed investment portfolios. The mutual funds are not operated independently but are managed under a “hosting” model, with operational services provided by Ayalon Investment House. The mutual fund industry remains one of the public’s main savings channels for the short- and medium-term and currently manages a record NIS 835 billion in assets.

Hitechzone’s acquisition of control over the investment house comes as a surprise to industry observers. According to senior mutual fund executives, the consumer club, which targets employees in the high-tech sector, may in the future seek to market investment management services and portfolio products to its members, with a focus on the technology sector. Hitechzone already maintains collaborations with financial institutions across banking and long-term savings, meaning its management will likely need to reassess its policy regarding the distribution of financial products.

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Hitechzone is controlled by Ronen Dagan (25.2%) and Noam Busidan (24.2%) and is operated under its parent company, High Biz. It is considered one of Israel’s largest and most influential consumer clubs. The club serves employees in the high-tech industry and has more than 370,000 members across over 2,500 companies. Unlike other consumer clubs, membership is not open to the general public and is limited to organizational affiliation.

Over the years, the club has expanded beyond consumer discounts into a range of business activities. In e-commerce, it operates an online retail platform that grew following the acquisition of the Walla Shops website and is supported by an independent logistics network and a large distribution center.

In addition, the core of the club’s financial activity is based on a dedicated credit card issued in partnership with Cal. Its broader influence is also reflected in strategic collaborations in capital markets and retail. Among other initiatives, the club operates a joint banking service with Bank Hapoalim under the “Poalim Hitechzone” brand, offering members preferential account terms. It is also active in the automotive sector through Hitechzone Motors, which provides new vehicle purchases on discounted terms, and periodically organizes real estate and mortgage initiatives for members.

Hitechzone’s shareholders also include the Menora Mivtachim Group, through Menora Mivtachim Pension and Provident Funds (12.9%) and Menora Mivtachim Insurance (4.4%). The transaction therefore marks an indirect return of the group to the mutual fund sector, after it previously merged its mutual fund operations with Altshuler Shaham in 2017.

For Mor Langermann, the deal is expected to broaden its activity base. Mor Langermann Capital is a relatively new participant in the underwriting sector, while the banking firm itself was founded in 2015 by Uri Mor and Etty Langermann.

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The strategic rationale behind the joint acquisition remains unclear. Sources involved in the transaction say the main driver was the relatively low valuation at which the investment house was offered. The investment management industry, particularly mutual funds, has undergone significant consolidation in recent years.

Ronen Dagan said: “We at Hitechzone are committed to maximizing the purchasing power of high-tech employees. Our strategy includes developing ventures and investments in key areas such as real estate, automotive, and finance. These are the categories where club members spend the most, and therefore where we can create the greatest savings and value for them.”

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Campaign finance reports show big contributions in Lubbock council race

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Campaign finance reports show big contributions in Lubbock council race

The five candidates for Saturday’s Lubbock City Council District 4 special election filed campaign finance reports showing political contributions from some notable area organizations and community leaders.

The June 27 special election will determine who will replace Councilman Brayden Rose in the south-central Lubbock council seat. Rose announced his resignation earlier in the year and will formally vacate his seat on the Lubbock City Council once the district elects his successor.

Which candidates are on the ballot for District 4?

Here is the list of candidates as they appear on the ballot for the City of Lubbock special election:

  • Gary Boren — retired businessman, former city councilmember and member of the Brazos River Authority Board.
  • Stephanie Ferran — Lubbock small business owner and life coach.
  • Tim Green — local homebuilder, owner of Tim Green Homes and former fireman.
  • Bill Curnow — cybersecurity professional with Plains Cotton Cooperative Association and community volunteer.
  • Boyd Goodloe — Lubbock Area Director for Access Rentals, former Lubbock ISD school board candidate and a youth minister.

Who led in fundraising for the District 4 special election?

Here’s a look at campaign contributions and in-kind donations the five candidates reported in their 30-day and 8-day campaign finance reports, according to documents from the Lubbock City Secretary’s Office.

Green came into Saturday’s special election leading the fundraising battle during the relatively short election cycle that began in the spring.

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According to their 8-day campaign finance reports filed with the city, Green reported $16,235.80 in contributions in June compared to $10,400 for Boren during the period.

Their 30-day reports filed in May showed Green reported $21,600 in contributions compared to $0 for Boren during the initial reporting period through late May. Curnow reported $1,740.11 in contributions during the initial reporting period, with Goodloe reporting $378 in contributions and Ferran $0 at that time.

Curnow reported $183.23 in contributions in his eight-day report, while Ferran reported $0 and Goodloe reported $87.45 during the period.

Notable contributions for Boren included $5,000 from businessman and Texas Tech System Regent Dusty Womble, $1,000 from Carl and Gloria Toti and $1,000 from Mike and Suzie Liner, among other smaller contributions.

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Notable contributions for Green included $5,000 from the 806 Advantage PAC, $4,000 from Scott Leach along with several $1,500 or $1,000 contributions from other area businesses people and entrepreneurs. Green also reported $10,500 in in-kind contributions from the Lubbock Professional Firefighters Association.

Curnow reported a $1,000 contribution from psychologist Philip Davis among several other smaller contributions.

In their 8-day reports, the candidates also included total expenses for the period, including: Boren with $19,032.57 ($3,948.07 in his 30-day report), Curnow with $886.69 ($1,494.14 in his 30-day), Ferran with $0 ($464 in her 30-day), Goodloe with $673.43 ($266.67 in his 30-day), and Green with $10.90 ($12,864.20 in his 30-day).

Adam D. Young is the Editor of the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal and Amarillo Globe-News in Texas. Have a news tip for him? Email him at ayoung@lubbockonline.com.

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Your Savings Account Is Failing: 3 Shifts to Reclaim Your Wealth

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Your Savings Account Is Failing: 3 Shifts to Reclaim Your Wealth

You’ve done everything right, and you’re still losing ground. That’s the sentiment many are feeling, as rising inflation takes bigger bites out of your paychecks when you pump gas, pay your electric bill or go to the grocery store.

It used to be that you could turn to a high-yield savings account to outpace it. Yet, with inflation at 4.20% and not likely to cool soon, most savings accounts don’t earn returns keeping pace with inflation.

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