Finance
Nvidia investors should've sold the stock a month ago, strategist says
One Nvidia (NVDA) bear warned the time has come for investors to sell.
Nvidia failed to meet sky-high expectations when it reported its fiscal second quarter earnings on Wednesday. Nvidia reported profits and revenue that topped forecasts but not by as much as investors hoped, delivering its smallest earnings beat in the last six quarters.
Nvidia stock fell 6% on Wednesday evening in reaction to the results and continued to slide 4% lower on Thursday afternoon. Year to date, the stock remains up nearly 140%.
When asked when it might be time to sell, David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of Bahnsen Group, said, “About a month ago. Two months ago. Today. Tomorrow.”
“People are paying for perfection,” Bahnsen added (video above). “You’re buying Nvidia banking on there being another investor who’s a bigger sucker than you are.”
The warning from Bahnsen comes as the stock has rallied 1,000% from its October 2022 lows. His call is based on one data point: Nvidia’s price-to-earnings ratio, which sits just above 56 after earnings but neared 80 in July.
He offered a reminder that a company and its stock are not the same thing.
“This is not me bashing on Nvidia,” Bahnsen said. “This is a success story. I’m commenting on the valuation — that when you start paying those prices, the risk-reward skew becomes very unattractive.”
Still, it’s a risk that the 89% of analysts with a Buy rating on the stock are willing to take. The stock has zero Sell ratings, which is understandable considering Nvidia posted $30 billion in revenue in the second quarter, a 122% increase over the same period last year.
Nvidia’s future depends in part on other Big Tech companies. Hyperscalers Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) are responsible for 40% of Nvidia’s revenue, according to Bloomberg estimates.
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai indicated on the company’s earnings call this quarter that the company’s spending on artificial intelligence would not slow down. “The one way I think about it is when you go through a curve like this, the risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting for us,” Pichai said.
Alphabet’s investment in AI, which represents a significant portion of Nvidia’s revenue, could be a bullish signal to come. But those business fundamentals aren’t the only focus.
“The estimates for next year and the year after that are starting to get way, way out of control,” D.A. Davidson managing director Gil Luria told Yahoo Finance.
The next big question for investors is whether the Street’s reaction to Nvidia results this quarter will be enough to dampen earnings expectations heading into Q3.
For Bahnsen, it may already be too late.
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Finance
Southeast Asia's frustration with the state of climate finance
The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP29, ended in much frustration in Azerbaijan last year. The agreement on the new climate finance goal was a disappointment to Southeast Asia, which urgently needs more funding to tackle and adapt to climate change.
At the summit, developed countries agreed to increase their climate finance provision to developing countries from US$100 billion to US$300 billion annually by 2035. Contributions from governments and multilateral development banks are expected to meet this target. Given the broader goal to raise US$1.1 to US$1.3 trillion annually in climate finance, this means developing countries would need to raise up to US$1 trillion annually from the private sector and other sources by 2035. These finance provisions will help to fund climate mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, such as through increased uptakes of renewable energy) and climate adaptation projects (adjusting to the consequences climate change) in developing countries.
Global South representatives have expressed anger and disappointment with the negotiation process and with the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) because, in their view, climate finance should primarily consist of grants and, to a lesser extent, low-interest loans that minimise financial burdens on governments in developing countries. The NCQG, however, suggests that developing countries will have to rely on for-profit private investments to satisfy most of their climate finance needs, especially as discussions of new finance sources, such as from levies on fossil fuels and air travel, remain vague. Moreover, if inflation is taken into account, the pledged US$300 billion climate finance target will lose 20 per cent of its value by 2035.
Southeast Asia has good reasons to be frustrated with the climate finance agreement at Baku. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Southeast Asia needs US$210 billion — around 5 per cent of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) — annually until 2030 to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and it is unlikely that public finances alone can reach this target. Southeast Asia’s adaptation needs call for investments in multiple areas, such as in agriculture, water management, mangrove protection, and Early Warning Systems to identify climate-related risks and hazards. Estimated total climate adaptation cost, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in each Southeast Asian country, ranges from 0.1 per cent (for Singapore) to 2.2 per cent (for Cambodia).
To protect its standard of living, Southeast Asia should step up its efforts on climate action and look for additional alternative sources of climate finance.
Southeast Asia’s energy demand growth is also not being evenly matched by investments in renewable energy. A quarter of the growing global energy demand over the next decade is estimated to come from Southeast Asia. However, according to the International Energy Agency, renewable energy investment in Southeast Asia accounts for only 2 per cent of the global total. Although public and private finance play crucial roles in accelerating energy transition in the region, concessional finance of US$12 billion by the early 2030s is needed.
Given the inadequacy of the NCQG, Southeast Asia should continue to look beyond UN climate conferences for climate finance. Even if greater climate finance commitments had been reached at COP29, it would have nevertheless been a Pyrrhic victory. As history demonstrates, countries tend to fall short of their promises. In 2009, developed countries pledged to provide US$100 billion in climate finance per year by 2020, but their contributions only surpassed this target for the first time in 2022.
In Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Vietnam have joined the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), a multilateral climate finance initiative supported by the Group of 7 (G7) that encourages developing countries to transition away from coal-fired power.
Large financing gaps remain, however. Countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam have joined the Japan-led Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) initiative, which aims to mobilise up to US$8 billion until 2030 to support decarbonisation in Asia, but a third of AZEC projects involve natural gas and fossil-fuel technologies. Asean and the ADB have also established the Asean Catalytic Green Finance Facility (ACGF) to provide loans for green infrastructural investments in the region. Another noteworthy initiative is Singapore’s Financing Asia’s Transition Partnership (FAST-P) which utilises blended finance to advance energy transition in Asia.
It is uncertain whether the options listed above will suffice. Southeast Asia’s battle against climate change is a high-stakes race against time. According to a study by Swiss Re in 2021, the GDP of Asean countries could, in the worst-case scenario, fall by 37.4 per cent by 2048 if the average global temperature rises up to 3.2 degree Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period.
To protect its standard of living, Southeast Asia should step up its efforts on climate action and look for additional alternative sources of climate finance. This should include (but should not be limited to) debt relief, debt-for-nature swap (writing off countries’ debt in return for tangible outcomes in climate/nature projects), green bonds, and support for the new UN global tax convention that aims to raise tax revenues to support sustainable development in the Global South. Such efforts are necessary but might not be sufficient: the financing gap is huge, and the time is short.
Prapimphan Chiengkul is an Associate Fellow with the Climate Change in Southeast Asia Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
This article was first published in Fulcrum, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s blogsite.
Finance
Readers’ questions answered: I am 79 years old. How should I invest?
Navigating our money lives can be messy.
The myriad decisions we make every day about good money habits, where to invest, and how to balance saving and paying down debt are no easy lift.
I regularly hear from readers asking for advice about their own situations and challenges.
The following is an edited sample of readers’ questions and my answers.
I am 79 years old. How should I invest?
Retirees should typically hold at least five, if not 10, years’ worth of living expenses in a combination of cash and high-quality bonds. That will provide protection against needing to dip into your stock investments if things head south. The yields on bonds and cash may not be party-worthy right now, but they’re still respectable. In fact, many certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts are paying around 4.75%.
In general, you should aim for a more conservative mix of investments as you get older so you don’t have to get queasy when the stock market slips and slides. To roughly determine what percentage of your portfolio should be in stocks, subtract your age from 110. So, as a 79-year-old, you should have just under a third of your investments in stocks and the rest in bonds and cash.
I have two children (twins) who are 29 years old and neither is very savvy when it comes to managing money. My daughter is a good saver but my son, who is a doctor, cannot save a dime. They both acknowledge their lack of financial understanding. I was wondering if there are courses or books you would recommend.
You hit a pain point felt by many Americans, not just your children. American adults are woefully behind when it comes to financial literacy.
Most of us never were exposed to financial education growing up.
Although it’s too late for your adult children to have had that grounding, this oversight is morphing in a positive direction for today’s students — 35 states now require high school students to take a course in personal finance to graduate, up from 23 in 2022, according to the Council for Economic Education.
Finance
Beeks Financial Cloud Group plc (LON:BKS) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?
Most readers would already be aware that Beeks Financial Cloud Group’s (LON:BKS) stock increased significantly by 12% over the past three months. However, we wonder if the company’s inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. In this article, we decided to focus on Beeks Financial Cloud Group’s ROE.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company’s management is utilizing the company’s capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder’s equity.
View our latest analysis for Beeks Financial Cloud Group
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Beeks Financial Cloud Group is:
5.8% = UK£2.2m ÷ UK£37m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
The ‘return’ is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every £1 worth of shareholders’ equity, the company generated £0.06 in profit.
So far, we’ve learned that ROE is a measure of a company’s profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or “retains” for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
At first glance, Beeks Financial Cloud Group’s ROE doesn’t look very promising. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 17%, the company’s ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. Hence, the flat earnings seen by Beeks Financial Cloud Group over the past five years could probably be the result of it having a lower ROE.
As a next step, we compared Beeks Financial Cloud Group’s net income growth with the industry and discovered that the company’s growth is slightly less than the industry average growth of 0.9% in the same period.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you’re wondering about Beeks Financial Cloud Group’s’s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
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