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Expert's rogue 2026 RBA interest rates prediction: 'Pay the price'

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Expert's rogue 2026 RBA interest rates prediction: 'Pay the price'

Economist Richard Holden believes the RBA won’t be cutting interest rates until at least 2026. (Source: UNSW/Getty)

Two experts believe Aussie homeowners won’t get any mortgage relief until at least 2026. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold interest rates at the 13-year high of 4.35 per cent following its two-day September meeting.

Not a single expert from Finder’s research was tipping a cut from this meeting and the overwhelming majority (15) believe the first round of cuts will happen in February 2025. But Richard Holden, Professor of Economics at UNSW Business School, told Yahoo Finance homeowners should expect to hold their breath longer — much longer.

“We’re not going to solve this inflation problem by cutting rates. We’re going to make it worse,” he said.

He and Malcolm Wood, Ord Minnett’s head of institutional research, reckon the first rate cut won’t come until sometime in 2026.

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The RBA has been insistent that inflation has to come into the 2-3 per cent range before rates should be cut.

Governor Michele Bullock said a lot of work needs to be done to get inflation down and all but ruled out a rate cut this year.

Will you be forced to sell your home if the RBA doesn’t cut rates this year? Email stew.perrie@yahooinc.com

At the post-meeting press conference, Bullock said the bank isn’t convinced inflation is moving in the direction it needs for a cut.

“The board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target before any decisions are made about a reduction in interest rates, so we really need to see progress on underlying inflation coming back down toward the target,” she said.

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Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows inflation has fallen dramatically since the 2022 peak of 7.8 per cent.

On Wednesday, new figures revealed it dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years to just 2.7 per cent in the 12 months to August, which is down from 3.5 per cent in July.

But a big factor in that fall are the state and federal electricity subsidies handed out after July 1.

Holden said it’s “misleading” to focus on headline inflation because it can be swayed by things like government handouts.

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He said the number to keep your eyes on is trimmed inflation, which is also called core inflation or underlying inflation.

This “smooths out the impact of temporary or irregular price changes” like from subsidies and excludes the top and bottom 15 per cent of price changes to give a more accurate reflection of what’s going on in Australia’s economy. The economist said that number is much harder to move.

“Underlying inflation is a long game,” he told Yahoo Finance.

The RBA also noted that trimmed inflation has been particularly sticky over the past few months.

“Our current forecasts do not see inflation returning sustainably to target until 2026,” it said in its September meeting notes.

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“In year-ended terms, underlying inflation has been above the midpoint of the target for 11 consecutive quarters and has fallen very little over the past year.”

Trimmed inflation came in at 3.4 per cent for August, which is still a considerable drop from the 3.8 per cent in July.

Economist and Yahoo Finance contributor Stephen Koukoulas has argued the RBA should feel comfortable cutting interest rates soon based on headline inflation.

“The RBA is refusing to cut interest rates because it is guessing that the step lower in inflation in August will be temporary, a call that is based on faith not facts,” he wrote.

“In the end, the markets embraced the low inflation result and yet again discounted the RBA view of the economy by pricing in a better than even chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut before the end of 2024 and a total of 125 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of 2025.”

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The US Federal Reserve announced last week it was finally reducing its interest rates from a 23-year high.

In a near-unanimous decision, the rate was slashed by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 4.75 to 5 per cent.

It was the first rate cut since 2020 and experts are predicting there will be two more rate cuts by Christmas, four more cuts in 2025 and twice again in 2026.

Inflation peaked in the US in June 2022 at 9.1 per cent and is now at 2.5 per cent.

Graph showing when experts believe the first rate will comeGraph showing when experts believe the first rate will come

Finder spoke to dozens of experts about when they think the RBA will cut interest rates. (Source: Finder)

The US’s move brought it in line with other major nations including the European Union, the UK, Canada, New Zealand, Denmark, Switzerland, China, and many others.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said waiting longer to reduce the federal funds rate compared to other nations “really paid dividends” as it allowed policymakers to get more comfortable about the downward path of inflation.

Holden said Australia will likely have to follow a similar path.

“It’s a real shame that we didn’t do what the US and the UK and Canada and Europe and New Zealand did, which was take our medicine early on, raise rates more aggressively, deal with the problem, not be so lavish with government spending,” he explained to Yahoo Finance.

“You can see the fruits of that… look at America… that’s the story of what we should have done, and we haven’t done it, and we’re all paying the price for it.”

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to cut rates in December 2024. It thinks there will be five 0.25 per cent cuts by the end of 2025, taking the cash rate to 3.10 per cent.

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Westpac thinks there will be a cut in February 2025, with four 0.25 per cent cuts in total to bring the cash rate down to 3.35 per cent.

NAB thinks it will be in May 2025, although it says February is possible, with five 0.25 per cent cuts down to 3.10 per cent.

ANZ has forecast a February 2025 cut, with three cuts in total to bring the cash rate down to 3.60 per cent.

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Cheers Financial Taps into AI to Build Credit – Los Angeles Business Journal

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Cheers Financial Taps into AI to Build Credit – Los Angeles Business Journal

A credit-building tool fintech founder Ken Lian built out of personal need just got an artificial intelligence-powered upgrade.

Lian and co-founders Zhen Wang and Qingyi Li recently launched Cheers Financial – a startup run out of Pasadena-based Idealab Inc. which combines fast-tracked credit-building with “immigrant-friendly” onboarding.

“Our mission is really to try to make credit fair to individuals who want to have financial freedom in the U.S.,” Lian said.

After coming to the U.S. as an international student from China in 2008, Lian said he struggled for four years to get a bank’s approval for a credit card. Since 2021, the USC alumnus’ fintech ventures have aimed to break down the hurdles immigrants like him often face in accessing and building credit.

Since its launch in November, Cheers Financial has seen “healthy growth,” Lian said, with thousands using its secured personal loan product to build credit through automated monthly payments. At the end of the 24-month loan period, users get their principal back minus about 12.2% interest.

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“The product is designed to automate the entire flow, so users basically can set and forget it,” Lian said.

Cheers, partnering with Minnesota-based Sunrise Banks, boasts an average 21-point increase in credit scores within a couple of months among its users coming in with “fair” scores from the high 500s to mid-600s.

With help from AI data summary and matching, the company reports to the three major credit bureaus every 15 days – two times as frequent as popular credit-building app Kikoff. Lian hopes to shave that down to seven days.

Cheers is far from Lian, Wang and Li’s first step into alternative financial tools. An earlier venture launched in 2021, Cheese Inc., served a similar goal as an online platform providing credit-building loans alongside other services, including a zero-fee debit card with cash back.

Cheese folded when the company it used as its middle layer, Synapse Financial Technologies, collapsed in April 2024 and locked thousands of users out of their savings.

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For Lian and other fintech founders, Synapse’s fall was a wake-up call to the gaps and risks of digital banking’s status quo. As he geared up for Cheers, Lian knew in-house models and a direct company-to-bank relationship were key.

“That allows us to build a very secure and stable platform for our users,” Lian said.

Despite cooling investment in fintech, Cheers nabbed backing from San Francisco-based Better Tomorrow Ventures’ $140 million fintech fund. Automating base-level processes with AI has given the company a chance to operate at a lower cost, Lian said.

“You don’t need to build everything from the ground up,” Lian said. “You can let AI build the basic part, and then you optimize from that.”

Strong demand from high-quality users who spread the word to friends and relatives has helped, too. Some have even started Cheers accounts before arriving in the U.S., Lian said, to get a head start on building credit.

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How The Narrative Around ConocoPhillips (COP) Is Shifting With New Research And Cash Flow Concerns

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How The Narrative Around ConocoPhillips (COP) Is Shifting With New Research And Cash Flow Concerns
ConocoPhillips’ fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly, moving from about US$112.37 to roughly US$111.48, as recent research blends confidence in the company’s execution and balance sheet with more cautious views on crude pricing and near term cash flow. The core discount rate has been held steady at 6.956%, while modest tweaks to revenue growth assumptions, from 1.92% to 1.69%, reflect tempered expectations around demand and realizations that some firms are flagging. Stay tuned to…
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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

Climate change is no longer just about melting ice or hotter summers. It is also a financial problem. Droughts, floods, storms and heatwaves damage crops, factories and infrastructure. At the same time, the global push to cut greenhouse gas emissions creates risks for countries that depend on oil, gas or coal.

These pressures can destabilise entire financial systems, especially in regions already facing economic fragility. Africa is a prime example.

Although the continent contributes less than 5% of global carbon emissions, it is among the most vulnerable. In Mozambique, repeated cyclones have destroyed homes, roads and farms, forcing banks and insurers to absorb heavy losses. Kenya has experienced severe droughts that hurt agriculture, reducing farmers’ ability to repay loans. In north Africa, heatwaves strain electricity grids and increase water scarcity.

These physical risks are compounded by “transition risks”, like declining revenues from fossil fuel exports or higher borrowing costs as investors worry about climate instability. Together, they make climate governance through financial policies both urgent and complex. Without these policies, financial systems risk being caught off guard by climate shocks and the transition away from fossil fuels.

This is where climate-related financial policies come in. They provide the tools for banks, insurers and regulators to manage risks, support investment in greener sectors and strengthen financial stability.

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Regulators and banks across Africa have started to adopt climate-related financial policies. These range from rules that require banks to consider climate risks, to disclosure standards, green lending guidelines, and green bond frameworks. These tools are being tested in several countries. But their scope and enforcement vary widely across the continent.

My research compiles the first continent-wide database of climate-related financial policies in Africa and examines how differences in these policies – and in how binding they are – affect financial stability and the ability to mobilise private investment for green projects.

A new study I conducted reviewed more than two decades of policies (2000–2025) across African countries. It found stark differences.

South Africa has developed the most comprehensive framework, with policies across all categories. Kenya and Morocco are also active, particularly in disclosure and risk-management rules. In contrast, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a few voluntary measures.

Why does this matter? Voluntary rules can help raise awareness and encourage change, but on their own they often do not go far enough. Binding measures, on the other hand, tend to create stronger incentives and steadier progress. So far, however, most African climate-related financial policies remain voluntary. This leaves climate risk as something to consider rather than a firm requirement.

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Uneven landscape

In Africa, the 2015 Paris Agreement marked a clear turning point. Around that time, policy activity increased noticeably, suggesting that international agreements and standards could help create momentum and visibility for climate action. The expansion of climate-related financial policies was also shaped by domestic priorities and by pressure from international investors and development partners.

But since the late 2010s, progress has slowed. Limited resources, overlapping institutional responsibilities and fragmented coordination have made it difficult to sustain the earlier pace of reform.

Looking across the continent, four broad patterns have emerged.

A few countries, such as South Africa, have developed comprehensive frameworks. These include:

  • disclosure rules (requirements for banks and companies to report how climate risks affect them)

  • stress tests (simulations of extreme climate or transition scenarios to see whether banks would remain resilient).

Others, including Kenya and Morocco, are steadily expanding their policy mix, even if institutional capacity is still developing.

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Some, such as Nigeria and Egypt, are moderately active, with a focus on disclosure rules and green bonds. (Those are bonds whose proceeds are earmarked to finance environmentally friendly projects such as renewable energy, clean transport or climate-resilient infrastructure.)

Finally, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a limited number of measures, often voluntary in nature.

This uneven landscape has important consequences.

The net effect

In fossil fuel-dependent economies such as South Africa, Egypt and Algeria, the shift away from coal, oil and gas could generate significant transition risks. These include:

  • financial instability, for example when asset values in carbon-intensive sectors fall sharply or credit exposures deteriorate

  • stranded assets, where fossil fuel infrastructure and reserves lose their economic value before the end of their expected life because they can no longer be used or are no longer profitable under stricter climate policies.

Addressing these challenges may require policies that combine investment in new, low-carbon sectors with targeted support for affected workers, communities and households.

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Climate finance affects people directly. When droughts lead to loan defaults, local banks are strained. Insurance companies facing repeated payouts after floods may raise premiums. Pension funds invested in fossil fuels risk devaluations as these assets lose value. Climate-related financial policies therefore matter not only for regulators and markets, but also for jobs, savings, and everyday livelihoods.

At the same time, there are opportunities.

Firstly, expanding access to green bonds and sustainability-linked loans can channel private finance into renewable energy, clean transport, or resilient infrastructure.

Secondly, stronger disclosure rules can improve transparency and investor confidence.

Thirdly, regional harmonisation through common reporting standards, for example, would reduce fragmentation. This would make it easier for Africa to attract global climate finance.

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Looking ahead

International forums such as the UN climate conferences (COP) and the G20 have helped to push this agenda forward, mainly by setting expectations rather than hard rules. These initiatives create pressure and guidance. But they remain soft law. Turning them into binding, enforceable rules still depends on decisions taken by national regulators and governments.

International partners such as the African Development Bank and the African Union could support coordination by promoting continental standards that define what counts as a green investment. Donors and multilateral lenders may also provide technical expertise and financial support to countries with weaker systems, helping them move from voluntary guidelines toward more enforceable rules.

South Africa, already a regional leader, could share its experience with stress testing and green finance frameworks.

Africa also has the potential to position itself as a hub for renewable energy and sustainable finance. With vast solar and wind resources, expanding urban centres, and an increasingly digital financial sector, the continent could leapfrog towards a greener future if investment and regulation advance together.

Success stories in Kenya’s sustainable banking practices and Morocco’s renewable energy expansion show that progress is possible when financial systems adapt.

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What happens next will matter greatly. By expanding and enforcing climate-related financial rules, Africa can reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks while unlocking opportunities in green finance and renewable energy.

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