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Elon Musk’s finances may crash Tesla’s stock to the ground

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Elon Musk’s finances may crash Tesla’s stock to the ground

With all that goes on with Elon Musk, it’s easy to forget it’s Tesla that finances the Musk machine: His purchase of what was Twitter (now renamed by Musk as X) that enhances the reach of his opinions; his ability to send rockets into space, and whatever else he might dream up in the next five minutes 

Tesla, the world’s largest electric-car maker (still holding a slight lead over China’s BYD), is the reason why Musk — at least as this column goes to press — is the world’s richest person with a net worth above $200 billion.

Notice the qualifier.

Sometime soon, Musk may fall to No 2 or below, overtaken by Bernard Arnault, who runs the LVMH luxury goods empire (he has taken some hits to his wealth lately with a decline in LVMH shares) or maybe Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. 

Musk, of course, is Tesla’s CEO and largest shareholder.

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The latter is the reason for Musk’s shaky position on the billionaires list.

The company has hit a rough patch, and as I pointed out, his wealth is tied up in the stock.

How rough and whether it’s existential to Musk’s fortune, the future of Tesla and its shareholders, has been a matter of intense ­debate in the market recently. 

There are many true believers in Musk and Tesla, of course.

And it’s hard not to root for a free-speech guy who replatformed conservatives canceled by the leftists who ran Twitter before his 2022 purchase. 

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Yet if you’re a betting man (or woman), the anti-Tesla “bear” case looks increasingly appealing. 

Tesla’s stock is down 35% over the past month (compared to a 2.5% decline in the S&P).

It crashed Wednesday when Musk himself said the company’s wonky business model faces some significant hurdles.

The company’s new “Cybertruck” isn’t selling. Tesla remains profitable (it wasn’t always that way), though it missed on earnings and revenues.

Depending on the analyst, margins are collapsing. 

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Tesla’s stock is down 17% the past month (compared to a 2.4% decline in the S&P).

It tanked Wednesday when Musk himself said the company’s wonky business model faces some significant hurdles.

The company’s new ­ “Cybertruck” isn’t selling.

Tesla remains profitable (it wasn’t always that way), though it missed on earnings and revenues.

Depending on the analyst, margins are collapsing. 

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It has plans for expansion with a new plant in Mexico.

But it’s doing all of this in a higher interest rate environment, which means that with a recession looking very possible in 2024, there will be less demand for its product.

As Musk put it: “I just can’t emphasize this enough that [for] the vast majority of people, buying a car is about the monthly payment. And as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases naturally.” 

Faking a buyout 

We’ve been here before, of course.

Recall Tesla’s dark days back around 2018, when the firm was literally on the verge of bankruptcy.

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Shares were tanking, and the short sellers — who make money when a stock falls — were having a field day.

Production delays, no profits, and Elon the target of regulatory probes after he faked a buyout at a massive premium, had the market signaling a “Q” after the TSLA stock symbol to denote its imminent Chapter 11 ­status. 

Shares are up nearly 800% since those dark days.

The bulls talk about Tesla’s strong revenues and the fact it can produce cars cheaper than anyone else in the EV market. 

But to buy the Tesla “bull” story, you also have to suspend some disbelief.

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EVs are expensive and still inefficient.

How could they be a sustainable mass market product?

Musk suggested as much Wednesday.

Tesla, he said, is ready to cut prices to make its EVs more affordable to the vast middle class. 

Analysts are also starting to notice that Tesla’s EVs, and EVs in general, might not be sustainable in an ESG sense either.

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Part of Tesla’s market allure wasn’t that it sells a lot of cars, because it doesn’t.

It is a function of the Environmental Social Governance investment craze, where asset managers gauge stocks on a variety of non-financial metrics, including their company’s dedication to sustainability. 

EVs might not burn fossil fuels, but mining the chemicals in its batteries is environmentally hazardous, done in slave-labor-like conditions.

Electricity comes from somewhere, most of it not from all those “clean energy” windmills, but from our stressed-out electrical grid. 

Plus, ESG is now on a potential death march following commonsense attacks that it led to higher inflation (forcing oil companies to stop drilling when gas prices remain high).

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ESG fund returns are shaky and can’t really compete in a tough higher-interest-rate market. 

Tesla shares could take a haircut as ESG fades from existence.

An even bigger worry is Tesla’s questionable fundamentals.

Gordon Johnson, the CEO of GLJ Research and a longtime Tesla skeptic, explains that Tesla’s financial metrics, even before the company’s recent contretemps, looked increasingly “fugazy.” 

Sales growth has been in decline. Tesla produced 435,000 cars in the third quarter of 2023, from 466,000 in Q2.

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Its stock market value of $700 billion is worth more than the next seven largest automakers combined.

Yet, Johnson says, Tesla sold just 3% of the cars those companies in the aggregate sold over the past year. 

He points out that sales growth has been in decline.

Tesla produced 435,000 cars in the third quarter of 2023, from 466,000 in Q2.

Its stock market value of $664 billion is worth more than the next seven largest automakers combined.

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Yet, Johnson says, Tesla sold just 3.9% of the cars those companies in the aggregate sold over the past year. 

“I don’t want to say Tesla is going out of business, but it’s grossly overvalued,” Johnson tells me. 

If that’s the case, Musk’s status as the world’s richest man is grossly overvalued as well.

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Treasury Department to Use ‘Automation and Innovation’ to Fight Illicit Finance

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Treasury Department to Use ‘Automation and Innovation’ to Fight Illicit Finance

The Department of the Treasury has outlined the priorities it will pursue this year to step up the fight against illicit finance.

The agency aims to increase transparency, leverage partnerships and support responsible technological innovation, it said in a Thursday (May 16) press release announcing the publication of its “2024 National Strategy for Combating Terrorist and Other Illicit Financing.”

One of the Department’s priorities for the year is closing legal and regulatory gaps in the country’s anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) framework, according to the release. It aims to do so by operationalizing the beneficial ownership information registry; finalizing rules covering the residential real estate and investment advisor sectors; and assessing the vulnerability of other sectors.

A second priority is promoting a more effective and risk-focused AML/CFT regulatory and supervisory framework for financial institutions, the release said. The Department will work to do so by providing clear compliance guidance, sharing information and providing resources for supervision and enforcement.

The Department also aims to enhance the operational effectiveness of law enforcement, other U.S. government agencies and international partnerships to combat illicit finance, per the release.

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The fourth priority announced in the press release is realizing “the benefits of responsible technological innovation” by developing new payments technology, supporting the use of new mechanisms for compliance, and using automation and innovation to find new ways to fight illicit finance, the release said.

“In this critical moment for our national and economic security, we need to continue to close the pathways that illicit actors seek to exploit for their schemes,” Brian E. Nelson, Under Secretary of the Treasury for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in the release. “We recognize the threat illicit financial activity represents to our national security, economic prosperity, and our democratic values, and are focused on addressing both the challenges of today and emerging concerns.”

These recommendations are meant to address key risks the Department of the Treasury identified in February in its “2024 National Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing, and Proliferation Financing Risk Assessments.”

In another recent move, the Treasury Department said in April that it wants more tools to curb terror financing.

In testimony released ahead of an April 9 appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo said terrorist groups and state actors continually “seek new ways to move their resources in light of the actions we are taking to cut them off from accessing the traditional financial system.”

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The Great Financial Crisis kick started the private credit boom, but SVB was its true 'watershed' moment, Sixth Street co-president says

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The Great Financial Crisis kick started the private credit boom, but SVB was its true 'watershed' moment, Sixth Street co-president says

The Global Financial Crisis threw millions of Americans out of their homes and jobs, upending the entire economy. But for the private credit industry, it was actually an awakening of sorts.

Over the past few decades, U.S. banks’ problems have signaled opportunity for the private credit market, and that’s particularly true of the Global Financial Crisis and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last March. When banks have issues, U.S. businesses’ desire for capital rarely wanes dramatically, and that leaves room for alternate lenders.

At the Fortune Future of Finance conference on Thursday, Joshua Easterly, co-CIO and co-president of the global investment firm Sixth Street, explained how he was working at Goldman Sachs after the Global Financial Crisis in 2009, running a team that did public and private market transactions in distressed debt and special situations, when he came to the realization that the lending industry had changed forever.

“It was the intended consequence, not the unintended consequence of regulations after the Crisis,” he said of the private credit boom. “Policymakers…wanted to figure out how to diffuse risk away from the taxpayer, but you couldn’t crush the economy by reducing credit, and so private credit history grew.”

Easterly argued that the private credit industry has a “better model” than the banking industry when it comes to lending risk, because it holds more capital for loans on balance sheets. And that made him come to a startling realization in 2009. “Huh? I think I need to go find a new job,” he recalled saying to a colleague. “So [the move to private credit] was a little bit about necessity.”

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Carey Lathrop, partner and chief operating officer of credit at Apollo Global Management, echoed Easterly’s comments, noting that when he started in the private credit industry “it was clear how hard it was to get things done that made economic sense” in public markets after the GFC.

The rise of private credit since 2008 has been historic, to say the least. Before the crisis, there was under $400 billion in total assets and committed capital in private credit. In 2023, that number jumped to $2.1 trillion, according to the International Monetary Fund. But it wasn’t just the Crisis that spurred the private credit boom. After the collapse of several regional banks in March 2023, headlined by the tech startup focused Silicon Valley Bank, businesses nationwide once again turned to private credit amid a liquidity crunch.

While SVB struggled after rapidly rising interest rates devalued its long-dated bonds, leading to a run on deposits from its list of influential and well-connected clientele, the manner in which private credit operates can lead to more stability in trying times.

Apollo’s Lathrop explained that banks like SVB “had this mismatch with a lot of long-term assets with assets with short term liabilities” that led to unrealized loan losses on their books as rates soared. But private credit doesn’t have this same issue. “We don’t run the [private credit] business that way,” he noted. “We were much more match funded.”

To his point, unlike banks, which fund a majority of their lending through customer deposits (and often uninsured deposits), private credit funds tend to use money from wealthy investors and institutions to make loans, leaving them less exposed to rising interest rates.

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Sixth Street’s Easterly said the SVB drama essentially showed “the robustness” of the private credit] business model, leading a raft of new clientele. “I think it was a watershed moment for the value of the asset class.”

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Four Factors That Impact Your Financial Plan

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Four Factors That Impact Your Financial Plan

While every financial plan and individual is unique, the core basis of how financial plans work is fairly similar. The good news is that there’s only a handful of data points that will really impact your financial plan, however that is also the bad news, because there’s only a few data points that will truly impact your financial plan.

Your Life Expectancy

How long you live is likely the most impactful data point in your financial plan. After all, what you’re planning for is to not run out of money after you retire, so you need to anticipate how long that period after retirement until the end of your life will last. In general, the population is living longer and this can have an impact on your finances as you may have to plan for a longer lifespan. While your life expectancy isn’t entirely under your control, you can take steps to live healthy lifestyle.

Your Spending

Your expenditures clearly impact your financial plan – if you imagine a group of ten individuals with the same income level and same assets, they’d likely all have different expenditures and would likely all have different success rates in retirement. When you’re thinking about how much money you’ll truly need to retire, that answer depends on how much you’ll planning on spending during retirement – if you’re a low spender, obviously you won’t need as much as someone who is used to spending more in their lifestyle. You’ll also need to account for unknown expenditures, such as healthcare and potential long-term care in retirement, when thinking about your potential expenses. The good news here is that your spending is an area within your control, but it can be difficult.

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Your Saving

On the flip side of spending is saving, and your ability to save absolutely impacts your financial plan. The people who prioritize saving generally have an easier time hitting their retirement goals, and the sooner you start the easier it may be to get there.

Minor Factors

While your life expectancy, spending and saving are the main factors that can impact your financial plan, there are several minor factors at play that can influence your plan. Inflation can certainly influence your plan, and this is out of your control. How your investments are structured, by your risk tolerance, may impact your financial plan, and this not only impacts your plan but is within your control. How much money you earn throughout your life impacts your plan, as it obviously allows for you to save more (but potentially also spend more) as you increase your earning potential.

While you can’t control everything that impacts your financial plan, there’s a lot than you can control, and much of it you can get help with through a professional such as a financial advisor.

Financial planning and Investment advisory services offered through Diversified, LLC. 

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Diversified is a registered investment adviser, and the registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC.

A copy of Diversified’s current written disclosure brochure which discusses, among other things, the firm’s business practices, services and fees, is available through the SEC’s website at: www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.

Diversified, LLC does not provide tax advice and should not be relied upon for purposes of filing taxes, estimating tax liabilities or avoiding any tax or penalty imposed by law. The information provided by Diversified, LLC should not be a substitute for consulting a qualified tax advisor, accountant, or other professional concerning the application of tax law or an individual tax situation.

Nothing provided on this site constitutes tax advice. Individuals should seek the advice of their own tax advisor for specific information regarding tax consequences of investments. Investments in securities entail risk and are not suitable for all investors. This site is not a recommendation nor an offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction.

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