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Elon Musk’s finances may crash Tesla’s stock to the ground

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Elon Musk’s finances may crash Tesla’s stock to the ground

With all that goes on with Elon Musk, it’s easy to forget it’s Tesla that finances the Musk machine: His purchase of what was Twitter (now renamed by Musk as X) that enhances the reach of his opinions; his ability to send rockets into space, and whatever else he might dream up in the next five minutes 

Tesla, the world’s largest electric-car maker (still holding a slight lead over China’s BYD), is the reason why Musk — at least as this column goes to press — is the world’s richest person with a net worth above $200 billion.

Notice the qualifier.

Sometime soon, Musk may fall to No 2 or below, overtaken by Bernard Arnault, who runs the LVMH luxury goods empire (he has taken some hits to his wealth lately with a decline in LVMH shares) or maybe Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. 

Musk, of course, is Tesla’s CEO and largest shareholder.

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The latter is the reason for Musk’s shaky position on the billionaires list.

The company has hit a rough patch, and as I pointed out, his wealth is tied up in the stock.

How rough and whether it’s existential to Musk’s fortune, the future of Tesla and its shareholders, has been a matter of intense ­debate in the market recently. 

There are many true believers in Musk and Tesla, of course.

And it’s hard not to root for a free-speech guy who replatformed conservatives canceled by the leftists who ran Twitter before his 2022 purchase. 

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Yet if you’re a betting man (or woman), the anti-Tesla “bear” case looks increasingly appealing. 

Tesla’s stock is down 35% over the past month (compared to a 2.5% decline in the S&P).

It crashed Wednesday when Musk himself said the company’s wonky business model faces some significant hurdles.

The company’s new “Cybertruck” isn’t selling. Tesla remains profitable (it wasn’t always that way), though it missed on earnings and revenues.

Depending on the analyst, margins are collapsing. 

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Tesla’s stock is down 17% the past month (compared to a 2.4% decline in the S&P).

It tanked Wednesday when Musk himself said the company’s wonky business model faces some significant hurdles.

The company’s new ­ “Cybertruck” isn’t selling.

Tesla remains profitable (it wasn’t always that way), though it missed on earnings and revenues.

Depending on the analyst, margins are collapsing. 

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It has plans for expansion with a new plant in Mexico.

But it’s doing all of this in a higher interest rate environment, which means that with a recession looking very possible in 2024, there will be less demand for its product.

As Musk put it: “I just can’t emphasize this enough that [for] the vast majority of people, buying a car is about the monthly payment. And as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases naturally.” 

Faking a buyout 

We’ve been here before, of course.

Recall Tesla’s dark days back around 2018, when the firm was literally on the verge of bankruptcy.

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Shares were tanking, and the short sellers — who make money when a stock falls — were having a field day.

Production delays, no profits, and Elon the target of regulatory probes after he faked a buyout at a massive premium, had the market signaling a “Q” after the TSLA stock symbol to denote its imminent Chapter 11 ­status. 

Shares are up nearly 800% since those dark days.

The bulls talk about Tesla’s strong revenues and the fact it can produce cars cheaper than anyone else in the EV market. 

But to buy the Tesla “bull” story, you also have to suspend some disbelief.

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EVs are expensive and still inefficient.

How could they be a sustainable mass market product?

Musk suggested as much Wednesday.

Tesla, he said, is ready to cut prices to make its EVs more affordable to the vast middle class. 

Analysts are also starting to notice that Tesla’s EVs, and EVs in general, might not be sustainable in an ESG sense either.

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Part of Tesla’s market allure wasn’t that it sells a lot of cars, because it doesn’t.

It is a function of the Environmental Social Governance investment craze, where asset managers gauge stocks on a variety of non-financial metrics, including their company’s dedication to sustainability. 

EVs might not burn fossil fuels, but mining the chemicals in its batteries is environmentally hazardous, done in slave-labor-like conditions.

Electricity comes from somewhere, most of it not from all those “clean energy” windmills, but from our stressed-out electrical grid. 

Plus, ESG is now on a potential death march following commonsense attacks that it led to higher inflation (forcing oil companies to stop drilling when gas prices remain high).

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ESG fund returns are shaky and can’t really compete in a tough higher-interest-rate market. 

Tesla shares could take a haircut as ESG fades from existence.

An even bigger worry is Tesla’s questionable fundamentals.

Gordon Johnson, the CEO of GLJ Research and a longtime Tesla skeptic, explains that Tesla’s financial metrics, even before the company’s recent contretemps, looked increasingly “fugazy.” 

Sales growth has been in decline. Tesla produced 435,000 cars in the third quarter of 2023, from 466,000 in Q2.

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Its stock market value of $700 billion is worth more than the next seven largest automakers combined.

Yet, Johnson says, Tesla sold just 3% of the cars those companies in the aggregate sold over the past year. 

He points out that sales growth has been in decline.

Tesla produced 435,000 cars in the third quarter of 2023, from 466,000 in Q2.

Its stock market value of $664 billion is worth more than the next seven largest automakers combined.

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Yet, Johnson says, Tesla sold just 3.9% of the cars those companies in the aggregate sold over the past year. 

“I don’t want to say Tesla is going out of business, but it’s grossly overvalued,” Johnson tells me. 

If that’s the case, Musk’s status as the world’s richest man is grossly overvalued as well.

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Islamic finance: a powerful solution for climate action – Greenpeace International

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Islamic finance: a powerful solution for climate action – Greenpeace International

Across the globe, Muslim communities find themselves disproportionately affected by climate change, with extreme weather events, rising food insecurity, and other climate impacts taking a toll on their livelihoods, cultural practices, and spiritual life. 

In the last few years, devastating floods swept through Pakistan, affecting millions, displacing thousands, and leaving entire communities struggling to rebuild. In Indonesia, one of the world’s most populous Muslim-majority countries, rising sea levels threaten to submerge coastal villages and erode vital agricultural lands. Meanwhile, in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, persistent droughts and water scarcity are increasing pressures on already fragile ecosystems and economies.

Pakistan’s 2022 monsoonal floods affected 33 million people across the country and claimed more than 1730 lives. Climate change has been identified as a contributing factor to the increasing frequency and severity of floods in Pakistan.

The climate crisis is having a profound impact on the daily lives and religious practices of millions of people

These climate pressures extend beyond immediate threats to survival. Climate change has also begun affecting food security in Muslim-majority regions, especially during Ramadan, a holy month where fasting is practised from dawn until dusk. In communities already grappling with the impacts of droughts or floods, maintaining food stocks for Ramadan can become a significant challenge. In Somalia, where cycles of drought and flash floods have eroded food systems, many families are forced to navigate long-standing shortages, with climate-induced shocks compounding existing vulnerabilities.

August 2019: A member of Greenpeace Indonesia’s Forest Fire Prevention (FFP) team holds a carbon monoxide meter as Muslims attend Idul Adha prayers at Darussalam Mosque. Haze from forest fires blankets the area in Palangkaraya City, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. High atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, combined with deforestation-induced dry conditions, further exacerbate these fires. © Ulet Ifansasti / Greenpeace

Food insecurity is a worsening crisis as global warming affects harvests, disrupts fisheries, and drives up food prices, making the observance of Ramadan particularly strenuous, both physically and economically. This brings climate change into the daily lives and religious practices of millions in profound ways, reminding us that the climate crisis is as much a social and economic issue as it is an environmental one.

Islamic finance: a financial system grounded in ethical responsibility

Islamic finance has been operating in the global financial system for decades, providing an ethical foundation rooted in Islamic principles that promote fairness, social responsibility, and environmental stewardship.

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Islamic Social Finance for Climate Action at COP 28 in Dubai. © Marie Jacquemin / Greenpeace
December 2023, COP28: An Islamic Social Finance For Climate Action event co-hosted by UNHCR and Greenpeace MENA (as part of the Ummah for Earth Alliance) explored the critical role of Islamic Social Finance in addressing global humanitarian and climate challenges. © Marie Jacquemin / Greenpeace

Ethical banking is a core pillar of Islamic finance. Through principles like zakat (charity) and waqf (endowment for public good), Islamic finance encourages financial activity that uplifts communities, supports sustainable projects, and avoids investments in industries harmful to people and the planet. 

Many Islamic financial institutions in countries like Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia already support projects aimed at protecting the environment and enhancing social welfare. Success stories are already emerging. Malaysia’s green sukuk initiative has mobilised billions for renewable energy projects, while the UAE’s recent US$3.9 billion in green sukuk issuance demonstrates growing momentum. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 has allocated US$50 billion for renewable initiatives, targeting an emissions reduction of 278 million tons by 2030. 

A US$400 billion opportunity for climate action

While Islamic finance principles already provide a framework that aligns well with sustainability, there is still much room to strengthen its role in addressing the climate crisis, enhancing resilience in vulnerable communities, and shifting investments towards clean, renewable energy.

A new report by Greenpeace Middle East & North Africa (MENA) (as part of the Ummah For Earth Alliance) and the Global Ethical Finance Initiative (GEFI), highlights the transformative potential of Islamic finance in accelerating the global transition to renewable energy and addressing the triple planetary crisis: climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss.

The report shows that the Islamic finance industry continues its robust expansion, with assets projected to reach USD$ 6.7 trillion by 2027, and that a strategic allocation of just 5% toward renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives could mobilise approximately USD$ 400 billion by 2030 – a transformative sum for climate-vulnerable regions.

In the build up to COP26, in October 2021, the Ummah for Earth alliance delivered a message to world leaders through a projection on the Glasgow Central Mosque close to the conference venue. The coalition solarised the Glasgow central mosque with around 120 solar panels. © Ummah For Earth / Greenpeace MENA
In the build up to COP26, in October 2021, the Ummah for Earth alliance delivered a message to world leaders through a projection on the Glasgow Central Mosque close to the conference venue. The coalition solarised the Glasgow central mosque with around 120 solar panels. © Ummah For Earth / Greenpeace MENA

Islamic finance can help foster climate-resilient infrastructure, restore and protect biodiversity, and finance climate adaptation projects in at-risk communities. By explicitly directing funds away from fossil fuels and into green energy projects, Islamic financial institutions like the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) can lead by example, especially in regions that are both vulnerable to climate impacts and hold significant influence in the global fossil fuel market. These institutions must accelerate their commitment to renewable energy investments.

As climate impacts intensify, Islamic finance offers a bridge between faith-based values and practical climate solutions. The convergence of Islamic finance and climate action represents more than a financial opportunity – it’s a moral imperative aligned with Islamic principles of environmental stewardship (khalifah) and balance (mizan).

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Islamic finance, grounded in ethical principles and community responsibility, has a unique role to play in the global climate movement, particularly in the Global South. For millions across the globe, this form of finance offers a culturally relevant and powerful instrument to not only protect their communities from the worsening climate crisis but to promote environmental and economic sustainability in ways that align with their beliefs. Islamic finance offers a bridge between economic strength and ethical stewardship, creating pathways toward a more equitable and sustainable world for all.

November 2024 - Islamic Finance & Renewable Energy Greenpeace MENA (member of the Ummah For Earth alliance), GEFI

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COP29: Trillions Of Dollars To Be Mobilized For Climate Finance

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COP29: Trillions Of Dollars To Be Mobilized For Climate Finance

World leaders are gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the COP 29 on Climate Change. As the conference enters its final day tomorrow, the atmosphere is charged with anticipation. Will the leaders be able to conclude discussions on critical issues?

A document released by the UN this morning hints at progress in discussions on climate finance: while the exact figure remains undisclosed, it is mentioned that it will be in trillions of dollars. The decision on trillions of dollars is a positive step, as many experts have expressed concerns that a few billion dollars will be insufficient and will fall short of necessary action to address the urgency of climate change.

By the end of COP 29 , the world will hopefully get a new number. A lot has gone into deciding this number: 12 technical consultations and three high-level ministerial meetings. The final leg of the consultations is happening in Baku. It is worthwhile to take a look at the key items that came out of the draft document on finance today and the discussions that led to those decisions. Much of this document can be expected to feed into the final decision that comes out of COP 29.

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A Decision On Trillions Of Dollars – The Quantum

What is a good number for a finance goal? Should the number be in billions or trillions? The draft text released today mentions that the amount will be in trillions. Although the exact number is unspecified.

One of the key outcomes expected from this year’s COP is this exact number which will become the new collective quantified goal, popularly referred to as NCQG. There is a high expectation that countries will be able to reach a consensus on a quantified number, which can be the North star to mobilize funds to address the urgency of climate change. It was during the COP in Copenhagen in 2009 that the earlier goal of mobilizing 100 billion per year was decied– an amount pledged by developed countries to support developing countries in addressing climate change by 2020. There are questions about whether that target was successfully met, with views from some countries that it was not met. The decision that came out today relfects this disagreement.

A few billion dollars would be unacceptable, according to Illiari Aragon, a specialist in UN Climate Negotiations, who has closely followed NCQG negotiations since they started. Many developing countries would be unsatisfied if a number of billions were proposed. In earlier talks, some numbers in billions were also floating around. Most estimations however point towards trillions. A number of at least 5 trillion, was estimated as being needed based on the Standard Committee of Finance of the United Nations as part of an assessment of needs proposed by countries in their Nationally Determined Contribution.

A Decision On The Contributor Base And Mandatory Obligations

Another key topic of discussion has been who contributes to the financial goal that comes out of COP 29. Some developed countries suggested expanding the donor base to also include countries like China and India. However, that was an unacceptable proposition, with media from India, based on interviews with experts, particularly reporting it would be unacceptable.

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The new text released today goes away from the mandatory approach and adds flexibility to better reflect needs of developed and developing countries. The text states that it invites developing country Parties willing to contribute to the support mobilized to developing countries to do so voluntarily, with the condition that this voluntary contribution will not be included in the NCQG.

The document released today also states that it has been decided that there will be minimum allocation floors for the Least Developing Countries and Small Island developing countries of at least USD 220 billion and at least USD 39 billion, respectively. Deciding such a minimum allocation floor is a big step as these countries are particularly vulnerable to the extreme impacts of climate change. In March 2023, Malawi, in the African continent, was devastated by a tropical cyclone. Africa, according to some estimates, contributes to only 4% of global warming, but is particularly vulnerable to climate cahnge.

Some Decisions On Structure- What should be included?

The question regarding what types of finance will be classified as finance has been a key topic of discussion. The type of finance is crucial because it determines what kind of finance can really be aggregated to reach the big quantum goal.

In the negotiations so far, some countries suggested requiring funds to be channeled from the private sector as well. However, some parties questioned whether the private sector could be obligated to contribute to a goal and be made accountable for this goal. There were also discussion on grants versus loans. Many countries called for more grants and financing with higher concessional rates, reducing the repayment burden.

The document that came out today clarified both the above concerns. It states that the new collective quantified goal on climate finance will be mobilized through various sources, including public, private, innovative and alternative sources, noting the significant role of public funds. The decision to include the private sector is a significant step, as it provides an entry door for the private sector to be more actively involved in climate action. On grants and loans, the decision text states that a reasonable amount will be fixed in grants to developing countries, with significant progression in the provision. The decision on this allocation floor for grants, is also an essential consideration as it helps these countries to avoid being tied up in debt.

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The decisions on climate finance published today during COP 29, which will act feed into the final decisions from COP 29, can add significant momentum to what is available for climate finance and action. They can also help build trust among many vulnerable countries in the power of multilateral decision-making process, showing that the world is indeed united in addressing global warming.

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Unlocking Opportunities in the Age of Digital Finance

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Unlocking Opportunities in the Age of Digital Finance

Emerging technologies like big data, AI and blockchain are reshaping finance. New products, such as platform finance, peer-to-peer lending and robo-advisory services, are examples of this transformation. These developments raise important questions: How concerned should traditional financial institutions be? What strategies can fintech and “techfin” (technology companies that move into financial services) disruptors adopt to secure their place in this evolving landscape?

There are two main threats to the traditional finance industry. The first comes from fintech companies. These firms offer specialised services, such as cryptocurrency-trading platforms like Robinhood or currency exchange services like Wise. Their strength lies in solving problems that traditional banks and wealth managers have yet to address or have chosen not to address given their cost and risk implications.

The second threat comes from techfin giants like Alibaba, Tencent and Google. These companies already have vast ecosystems of clients. They aren’t just offering new technology – they are providing financial services that compete directly with traditional banks. By leveraging their existing customer bases, they are gaining ground in the financial sector.

A common problem for traditional players is their belief that technology is simply a tool for improving efficiency. Banks often adopt digital solutions to compete with fintech and techfin firms, thinking that faster or cheaper services will suffice. However, this approach is flawed. It’s like putting an old product in new packaging. These disruptors aren’t just offering faster services – they’re solving needs that traditional banks are overlooking.

Evolving client expectations

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One area where traditional players have fallen short is meeting the needs of investors who can’t afford the high entry costs set by banks. Fintech and techfin companies have successfully targeted these overlooked groups.

A prime example is Alibaba’s Yu’e Bao. It revolutionised stock market participation for millions of retail investors in China. Traditional banks set high transaction thresholds, effectively shutting out smaller investors. Yu’e Bao, however, saw the potential of pooling the contributions of millions of small investors. This approach allowed them to create a massive fund that allowed these individuals to access the markets. Traditional banks had missed this opportunity. The equivalent of Alibaba’s Yu’e Bao in a decentralised ecosystem is robo-advisors, which create financial inclusion for otherwise neglected retail investors. 

These examples show that disruptors aren’t just using new technologies. They are changing the game entirely. By rethinking how financial services are delivered, fintech and techfin firms are offering access, flexibility and affordability in ways traditional institutions have not.

What can traditional players do?

For traditional financial institutions to remain competitive, they need to change their strategies. First, they should consider slimming down. The era of universal banks that try to do everything is over. Customers no longer want one-stop-shops – they seek tailored solutions.

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Second, instead of offering only their own products, banks could bundle them with those of other providers. By acting more as advisors than product pushers, they can add value to clients. Rather than compete directly with fintech or techfin firms, banks could collaborate with them. Offering a diverse range of solutions would build trust with clients. 

Finally, banks must stop demanding exclusivity from clients. Today’s customers prefer a multi-channel approach. They want the freedom to select from a variety of services across different platforms. Banks need to stop “locking in” clients with high exit fees and transaction costs. Instead, they should retain clients by offering real value. When clients feel free to come and go, they are more likely to stay because they know they’re receiving unbiased advice and products that meet their needs.

This would require taking an “open-platform” approach that focuses more on pulling customers in because they are attracted by the benefits of the ecosystem than locking them in or gating their exit. It is akin to Microsoft’s switch from a closed-source to an open-source model.

Do fintech and techfin have the winning formula?

While traditional players face their own challenges, fintech and techfin companies must also stay sharp. Though they excel at creating niche services, these disruptors often lack a broader understanding of the financial ecosystem. Many fintech and techfin firms are highly specialised. They know their products well, but they may not fully understand their competition or how to position themselves in the larger market.

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For these disruptors, the key to long-term success lies in collaboration. By learning more about traditional players – and even partnering with them – fintech and techfin companies can position themselves for sustainable growth. Whether through alliances or by filling service gaps in traditional banks, fintech and techfin firms can benefit from a better understanding of their competitors and partners.

Learning from disruption

In a world of rapid technological change, financial professionals are seeking structured ways to navigate this evolving landscape. Programmes like INSEAD’s Strategic Management in Banking (SMB) offer a mix of theory and practical experience, helping participants understand current trends in the industry.

For example, SMB includes simulations that reflect real-world challenges. In one, participants work through a risk-management scenario using quantitative tools. In another, they engage in a leadership simulation that focuses on asking the right questions and understanding the numbers behind a buy-over deal. These experiences help bridge the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application.

Equally important are the networks built through such programmes. With participants coming from traditional banks, fintech and techfin firms, the environment encourages collaboration and mutual understanding – both of which are crucial in today’s interconnected financial world.

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The next big wave in finance

Looking ahead, the next wave of disruption is unlikely to come from more advanced technology. Instead, it will likely stem from changing relationships between banks and their clients. The competitive advantage of traditional institutions will not come from technology alone. While price efficiencies are necessary, they are not enough.

What will set successful banks apart is their ability to connect with clients on a deeper level. Technology may speed up transactions, but it cannot replace the trust and human connection that are central to financial services. As behavioural finance continues to grow in importance, banks can move beyond managing money to managing client behaviour. Helping clients overcome biases that hinder their financial decisions will be key.

In the end, it’s not just about how fast or how efficient your services are. The future of finance lies in blending innovation with the timeless principles of trust, advice and human insight. Both traditional players and disruptors will need to find that balance if they hope to thrive in this new era.

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