A Trump victory would be less of a surprise to markets this time around than in 2016, when Treasury yields soared on expectations for tax cuts that could further inflate the nation’s debt or fuel a stronger U.S economy. Treasury yields have already climbed in recent weeks, in part due to rising expectations among some for a Trump win.

On Monday, Treasury yields gave back a chunk of those gains. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.29% from 4.38% late Friday.

Another investment that’s become a barometer in the market for Trump’s perceived chances of victory swung sharply through the day. After veering between losses and gains through the morning, Trump Media & Technology Group ended up rising 12.4%.

In the oil market early Tuesday, the price for a barrel of U.S. crude fell 7 cents to $71.40. On Monday, it rose 2.8% after Saudi Arabia and other oil producers said they would delay plans to increase the amount of crude they produced.

Brent crude, the international standard, added 12 cents to $75.20. It rose 2.7% a barrel on Monday. The price of Brent is still down for the year so far, in part because of worries about how much demand will come from China given its economic challenges.

In currency dealings, the dollar rose to 152.33 Japanese yen from 152.10 yen. The euro fell to $1.0876 from $1.0880.

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AP Business Writer Stan Choe contributed.

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Banks have been fighting this US proposal for the last year in an aggressive public campaign and even dropped hints about suing regulators if they don’t get their way.

They won a big victory in September when some regulators said they would water down those requirements. But not all regulators appear to be on board with that plan, putting the final version in doubt.

Some in the industry expect regulators to scrap the proposal if Trump wins.

“If you’re looking at how Trump views the world, I think you see less cooperation with international standard setters,” Allen Puwalski, chief investment officer at Cybiont Capital, told Yahoo Finance.

“And I think you see the US back out of Basel III.”

And a Harris win means the proposal for bank capital increases likely won’t “change that much,” according to Ian Katz, a managing director at Capital Alpha Partners.

“If Harris wins, I expect regulators to sit down to reassess the proposal and try to move forward,” he added.

But Katz is also quick to point out even in a Trump win, a more friendly regulatory climate for the biggest lenders can’t be assured and it certainly won’t be touted.

“You can’t assume that every Republican these days is going to do favors for the largest banks,” he added.

KBW predicts that on day one a Trump administration could make as much as eight leadership changes at federal regulatory agencies that oversee different corners of the financial services industry.

That includes the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the Securities and Exchange Commission and potentially even the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, if Biden nominee Christy Goldsmith Romero isn’t confirmed by the end of the year.

New leaders would also take over the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission, which would likely make it easier for giant companies to merge without running afoul of antitrust concerns.

KBW expects significant change at the Federal Reserve in 2026, when the chairmanship of the Fed’s Jerome Powell ends.

What is perhaps even more relevant for the banking industry is that 2026 is also the end of a term for Michael Barr as vice chair of supervision. Barr is the architect of the new bank capital rules and one of the industry’s chief antagonists.

The Washington Post has reported that bank executives and former Fed officials expect Trump to demote Barr, who was a Joe Biden appointee and a Treasury official during the Barack Obama era.

It is not known if Trump would have the legal power to make such a move, the Post reported.

Some big bank executives are clearly not fans of the current Biden-era regulators.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon this past week called a raft of regulatory proposals from his overseers “an onslaught,” criticized CFPB director Rohit Chopra, and made it clear the industry is willing to push back on new rules in court.

“It’s time to fight back,” Dimon said while speaking at an American Bankers Association convention in New York City. “I’ve had it with this sh*t.”

“We don’t want to get involved in litigation just to make a point,” he added, “but I think if you’re in a knife fight, you’d better damn well bring a knife.”

No matter which candidate takes the country’s top job, some bankers are convinced that the election will not define an industry full of institutions that have endured at least a century of change.

“We’ve done this through World Wars, money panics, depressions, the Texas meltdown of the 80s, great financial crisis and COVID,” Phil Green, CEO of San Antonio-based Frost Bank, told Yahoo Finance. Frost is 156 years old.

“We’re kind of like cockroaches in that way. We’re gonna still be here, at least that’s our plan,” he added.

David Hollerith is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering banking, crypto, and other areas in finance.

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