This 12 months’s Oscars are all about wild swings. A minimum of that’s how the present’s producer, Will Packer, is placing it, and who am I to argue with the man who dares to maneuver eight Oscars off Sunday’s stay telecast to make room for … properly … who is aware of. Packer guarantees a ceremony that can be “important, kinetic and related,” and with a skateboarder and snowboarder in the home, it appears to be like like he’s acquired the “kinetic” half coated.

We’ll wait and see concerning the different two buzzwords.

With the Oscar ceremony’s traditions being turned the other way up, it feels applicable that the awards themselves are in all probability going to go their very own method this 12 months, bucking precedents left and proper. You desire a finest image winner with solely three complete nominations? “CODA” has you coated. How a couple of director successful an Oscar, however her film getting nothing else? It’d occur with Jane Campion and “The Energy of the Canine.”

What different surprises are in retailer? Listed here are my closing predictions for the 94th Academy Awards, making observe of the classes that may very well be ripe for an upset.

BEST PICTURE

“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“Drive My Automotive”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Energy of the Canine”
“West Aspect Story”

Will win: “CODA”
Ought to win: “Drive My Automotive”
Might shock: “The Energy of the Canine”

After I noticed “The Energy of the Canine” shortly earlier than the Telluride Movie Competition, I wrote that Campion might win the director Oscar, however the film itself would fall brief. On the time, I figured it will be knocked off by one thing I hadn’t seen but — “West Aspect Story,” “Don’t Look Up,” possibly “Home of Gucci.” (RIP.) I can’t fairly consider that the probably Oscar winner is a film I had seen months earlier than on the (digital) Sundance Movie Competition, a stunning coming-of-age story that may nonetheless scale back me to tears even after seeing it a number of occasions.

I underestimated “CODA.” And even after the room exploded with applause after it gained the Display Actors Guild Awards’ ensemble prize, I nonetheless had my doubts. “CODA” earned simply three nominations, with no nods for director Siân Heder or movie editor Geraud Brisson, classes a film traditionally must win finest image. (1932’s “Grand Lodge” was the final film to win finest image with out not less than one among these nominations.)

Ultimately, these omissions probably gained’t matter as a result of individuals simply love this film. Its story of familial connection is common, whereas spotlighting Deaf actors in a groundbreaking trend. It’s a feel-good film for a feel-bad period. “Canine” might nonetheless prevail if it lands excessive on the preferential ballots of academy members voting for different auteur-driven movies like “Drive My Automotive,” “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley” and “Licorice Pizza.” However the “CODA” crew has already visited the White House this week. It seems like a executed deal.

DIRECTOR

Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Automotive”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
Jane Campion, “The Energy of the Canine”
Steven Spielberg, “West Aspect Story”

Will win: Campion
Ought to win: Campion

Campion successful her first directing Oscar has lengthy felt as sure because the queen outliving us all. Her clapback towards actor Sam Elliott, who had crudely criticized her film on Marc Maron’s podcast, didn’t sit properly with some voters, and she or he later discovered that it’s all the time finest to not communicate off the cuff when accepting an award. However these misadventures additionally reveal a lady who isn’t slick or calculated, in her artwork or in dialog. She’ll win — and can probably have a speech on the prepared this time.

LEAD ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman, “The Misplaced Daughter”
Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Moms”
Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”

Will win: Chastain
Ought to win: Cruz
Might shock: Cruz

Three weeks in the past, I wrote that the “solely certainty on the subject of this 12 months’s lead actress Oscar race is that there isn’t any certainty.” Then Chastain gained the SAG prize, shedding some tears throughout a transferring acceptance speech, and had some fun on Twitter after receiving the meaningless Critics Selection award. Now, she’s a transparent front-runner. And why not? It’s her third nomination (she’s due!), her colleagues like her (Chastain acquired an enormous ovation on the Oscar nominees luncheon) and she or he’s up for a film through which she needed to sing, emote and put on a ton of appearance-altering make-up.

Cruz might pull off an upset, although. She’s in a greater film and offers, arguably, a career-best efficiency — although she has been great in each film she has made with Pedro Almodóvar. The academy’s worldwide membership has grown over the previous couple of years, and you’ll see their affect enhance yearly in each the nominations and the awards. This could be a spot the place they maintain sway.

LEAD ACTOR

Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Energy of the Canine”
Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Growth!”
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Will win: Smith
Ought to win: Cumberbatch

From right here, the performing races lose any semblance of suspense. Like Chastain, Smith is a three-time Oscar nominee. (He’s due!) Like Chastain, his efficiency (as demanding tennis dad Richard Williams) includes a level of transformation. Like Chastain, he has charisma to spare, and he is aware of learn how to use it, each within the work and on the marketing campaign path. He’s a film star, a dying breed, and almost everybody desires to see him holding this Oscar.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley, “The Misplaced Daughter”
Ariana DeBose, “West Aspect Story”
Judi Dench, “Belfast”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Energy of the Canine”
Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”

Will win: DeBose
Ought to win: DeBose

As soon as “West Aspect Story” started screening and audiences noticed DeBose put her personal electrifying stamp on a job that gained Rita Moreno an Academy Award six many years in the past, she just about had this gained. Taking each different award main as much as the Oscars would show that out. Some Oscar narratives are unattainable to derail, significantly ones centered on work that produces such viewing delight.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jesse Plemons, “The Energy of the Canine”
J.Ok. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Energy of the Canine”

Will win: Kotsur
Ought to win: Kotsur

Only a week in the past on The Instances podcast, I made a passionate argument for Smit-McPhee because the deserving winner, citing his masterful work because the frail younger man who involves personal “The Energy of the Canine.” Then I watched that scene in “CODA” once more, the one the place Kotsur touches Emilia Jones’ neck so he can really feel the vibrations when she sings and, wow, that’s the film, isn’t it? Plus, Kotsur’s story as a veteran Deaf actor lastly having fun with mainstream profession recognition is inspiring and delightful. I wish to see him give one other speech. Smit-McPhee, 25, will hopefully produce other probabilities to win.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“CODA,” Siân Heder
“Drive My Automotive,” Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
“Dune,” Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
“The Misplaced Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal
“The Energy of the Canine,” Jane Campion

Will win: “CODA”
Ought to win: “Drive My Automotive”
Might win: “The Energy of the Canine”

If I’m Oscar producer Will Packer, I’m saving this class for late within the ceremony. Hold the uncertainty alive for so long as doable, Will. As a result of if “CODA” wins right here, a finest image victory will probably comply with. Identical if “The Energy of the Canine” prevails. And if it’s “Drive My Automotive,” then we gained’t know something past the truth that voters have distinctive style.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“Belfast,” Kenneth Branagh
“Don’t Look Up,” screenplay by Adam McKay; story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
“King Richard,” Zach Baylin
“Licorice Pizza,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Worst Individual within the World,” Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

Will win: “Licorice Pizza”
Ought to win: “Licorice Pizza”
Might shock: “Don’t Look Up”

Branagh has eight profession nominations unfold over seven classes, an Oscar document. Anderson has earned 11 nominations over time. Each are up for producing, writing and directing their respective motion pictures. Neither has ever gained. Which in all probability signifies that McKay will prevail, repeating his Writers Guild win for the buzzy “Don’t Look Up.” However I’m going to stay near dwelling and go along with the L.A.-set “Licorice Pizza.” (And sure, I’m ready to be disenchanted.)

ANIMATED FEATURE

“Encanto”
“Flee”
“Luca”
“The Mitchells vs. The Machines”
“Raya and the Final Dragon”

Will win: “Encanto”
Ought to win: “Encanto”

“Flee” made Oscar historical past, changing into the primary movie to earn nominations for worldwide function, documentary function and animated function. However Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s harrowing, heartrending refugee story might properly should content material itself with that badge of distinction, because it’s up towards fashionable titles in every of its nominated classes. Right here, it’s Disney’s sensational “Encanto,” which additionally earned nominations for track and rating, and is essentially the most broadly seen nominee. It gained’t want any magic to win.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Ascension”
“Attica”
“Flee”
“Summer time of Soul”
“Writing with Fireplace”

Will win: “Summer time of Soul”
Ought to win: “Summer time of Soul”
Might shock: “Flee”

Questlove’s “Summer time of Soul” mixes stirring social historical past with performances from Stevie Marvel, Nina Simone and Sly and the Household Stone. That’s probably an unbeatable mixture, although if voters wished to reward “Flee,” this may in all probability be the probably spot.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

“Drive My Automotive”
“Flee”
“The Hand of God”
“Lunana: A Yak within the Classroom”
“The Worst Individual within the World”

Will win: “Drive My Automotive”
Ought to win: “Drive My Automotive”

“Drive My Automotive” additionally earned a finest image nomination, so Hamaguchi’s delicate drama has this class locked.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

“Dune,” Greig Fraser
“Nightmare Alley,” Dan Laustsen
“The Energy of the Canine,” Ari Wegner
“The Tragedy of Macbeth,” Bruno Delbonnel
“West Aspect Story,” Janusz Kaminski

Will win: “Dune”
Ought to win: “The Energy of the Canine”
Might shock: “The Energy of the Canine”

Wegner might change into the primary girl to win the cinematography Oscar. Given the standard of her collaboration with Campion, she ought to be celebrating on Sunday. However voters don’t pay as a lot consideration to those sorts of distinctions as you may assume, so I’ll give a slight edge to Fraser’s trippy sci-fi worlds over Wegner’s western landscapes.

COSTUME DESIGN

“Cruella,” Jenny Beavan
“Cyrano,” Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
“Dune,” Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
“Nightmare Alley,” Luis Sequeira
“West Aspect Story,” Paul Tazewell

Will win: “Cruella”
Ought to win: “Cruella”

Emma Stone’s Cruella was an aspiring clothier, so it’s no shock that each gown on this film was immediately iconic.

FILM EDITING

“Don’t Look Up,” Hank Corwin
“Dune,” Joe Walker
“King Richard,” Pamela Martin
“The Energy of the Canine,” Peter Sciberras
“Tick, Tick … Growth!” Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

Will win: “Tick, Tick … Growth!”
Ought to win: “Tick, Tick … Growth!”
Might shock: “Dune”

“King Richard” and “Tick, Tick … Growth!” gained on the American Cinema Editors’ Eddie Awards. “Dune” and “The Energy of the Canine” have nominations in sound, which a movie often must win this Oscar. (Martin Scorsese’s 2006 finest image winner, “The Departed,” was the final film to win enhancing and not using a sound nom.) So, sure, this can be a wide-open class. Given how voters are likely to equate “finest” with “most,” I’m going with the flashy fervor of “Tick, Tick … Growth!”

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

“Coming 2 America,” Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
“Cruella,” Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
“Dune,” Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
“Home of Gucci,” Göran Lundström, AnnaCarin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

Will win: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Ought to win: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

If Chastain goes to win, the workforce making use of all that mascara ought to as properly.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

“Dune,” manufacturing design: Patrice Vermette; set ornament: Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Nightmare Alley,” manufacturing design: Tamara Deverell; set ornament: Shane Vieau
“The Energy of the Canine,” manufacturing design: Grant Main; set ornament: Amber Richards
“The Tragedy of Macbeth,” manufacturing design: Stefan Dechant; set ornament: Nancy Haigh
“West Aspect Story,” manufacturing design: Adam Stockhausen; set ornament: Rena DeAngelo

Will win: “Dune”
Ought to win: “Dune”
Might shock: “Nightmare Alley”

I’ve waffled between “Dune’s” imposing units and “Nightmare Alley’s” Artwork Deco/surreal carnival combo. (Each movies might stake a declare to “most” manufacturing design.) I’m touchdown on “Dune,” pondering it’s going to be this 12 months’s model of “Mad Max: Fury Highway,” cleansing up within the crafts classes.

SCORE

“Don’t Look Up,” Nicholas Britell
“Dune,” Hans Zimmer
“Encanto,” Germaine Franco
“Parallel Moms,” Alberto Iglesias
“The Energy of the Canine,” Jonny Greenwood

Will win: “Dune”
Ought to win: “Parallel Moms”
Might upset: “The Energy of the Canine”

Between “The Energy of the Canine,” “Spencer” and contributions to “Licorice Pizza,” Greenwood was the composer of the 12 months. However Zimmer has been cruising via the precursor awards. He final gained for 1994’s “The Lion King” and has been nominated 10 occasions since. It appears to be like just like the time is correct for the prolific composer to attain once more.

ORIGINAL SONG

“Be Alive” (“King Richard”); music and lyric by Dixson and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
“Dos Oruguitas” (“Encanto”); music and lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Right down to Pleasure” (“Belfast”); music and lyric by Van Morrison
“No Time to Die” (“No Time to Die”); music and lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
“By some means You Do” (“4 Good Days”); music and lyric by Diane Warren

Will win: “No Time to Die”
Ought to win: “Dos Oruguitas”
Might shock: “Dos Oruguitas”

Robust name between Eilish’s Bond theme and Miranda’s candy people track. “Dos Oruguitas” was extra central to the movie’s story, however I feel Eilish’s star energy offers her the sting.

SOUND

“Belfast,” Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
“Dune,” Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Inexperienced, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
“No Time to Die,” Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
“The Energy of the Canine,” Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
“West Aspect Story,” Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

Will win: “Dune”
Ought to win: “Dune”

How does this sound? “Duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuune!”

VISUAL EFFECTS

“Dune,” Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
“Free Man,” Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
“No Time to Die,” Charlie Noble, Joel Inexperienced, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
“Spider-Man: No Method House,” Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick

Will win: “Dune”
Ought to win: “Dune”

“Dune” has a finest image nomination (an enormous benefit on this class). Plus sandworms. That’s unbeatable.

ANIMATED SHORT

“Affairs of the Artwork”
“Bestia”
“Boxballet”
“Robin Robin”
“The Windshield Wiper”

Will win: “Robin Robin”
Ought to win: “Bestia”
Might shock: “Bestia”

Aardman’s “Robin Robin” has songs, plus Gillian Anderson. It’s essentially the most accessible of this eclectic group.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“Audible”
“Lead Me House”
“The Queen of Basketball”
“Three Songs for Benazir”
“When We Had been Bullies”

Will win: “The Queen of Basketball”
Ought to win: “Audible”
Might shock: “Audible”

The poignant refugee story “Three Songs for Benazir” would even be a worthy alternative, however I feel voters will go for both Ben Proudfoot’s portrait of a groundbreaking feminine basketball star or Matt Ogens’ “Audible,” which memorably follows a Deaf highschool soccer participant.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

“Ala Kachuu — Take and Run”
“The Costume”
“The Lengthy Goodbye”
“On My Thoughts”
“Please Maintain”

Will win: “The Lengthy Goodbye”
Ought to win: “Please Maintain”
Might shock: “Ala Kachuu — Take and Run”

The searing Riz Ahmed-led “The Lengthy Goodbye” has the best profile. And it packs a robust anti-racist message into its 12-minute operating time.