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The Pandemic Is Not the Only Reason U.S. Students Are Losing Ground

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The Pandemic Is Not the Only Reason U.S. Students Are Losing Ground

There was once a time when America’s lowest-performing students were improving just as much as the country’s top students.

Despite their low scores, these students at the bottom made slow but steady gains on national tests for much of the 2000s. It was one sign that the U.S. education system was working, perhaps not spectacularly, but at least enough to help struggling students keep pace with the gains of the most privileged and successful.

Today, the country’s lowest-scoring students are in free fall.

The reason is not just the pandemic. For at least a decade, starting around 2013, students in the bottom quartile have been losing ground on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, a key exam that tests a national sample of fourth and eighth grade students in math and reading.

The bottom quartile is made up of students from various backgrounds, but it includes a higher proportion of students with disabilities, students learning English and children from poor families. Since the pandemic, their scores have often continued to fall, even as high achieving students stabilize.

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“Whatever is happening to the lower performers is still happening,” said Nat Malkus, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank, who has tracked the trend.

Researchers point to a number of educational and societal changes over the past decade, including a retrenchment in school accountability, the lasting effects of the Great Recession and the rise of smartphones, which has coincided with worsening cognitive abilities even among adults since the early 2010s.

Figuring out what has happened to the lowest performers is critical, not just for their futures, but for the country’s success.

By leaving behind a huge swath of students, the United States is preparing fewer citizens to do the most technical and high-paying jobs, said Jason Dougal, who studies effective school systems at the National Center on Education and the Economy.

That only widens income inequality in the labor market, he said. And it pushes the United States further from top countries on education — places like Singapore, Japan and Ireland — which succeed not just by raising scores for their top performers, but by lifting up their lowest students.

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“To get high average performance, you can’t allow a significant portion of your population to be performing at low levels,” Mr. Dougal said.

Since the early 2010s, the United States has taken in more immigrants, which means more students learning English have entered public schools. Schools are also serving more students with disabilities.

Those demographic shifts could help explain some change in scores. Both groups are more likely to score below their peers on standardized tests. But it is most likely not the biggest factor, experts said.

The increases are small as a share of the total public school population.

And since 2013, almost every student category has seen significant declines among low performers, said Chad Aldeman, an education researcher and columnist for The 74, a nonprofit news site, who has written about the phenomenon.

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The declines have sometimes been greater for more advantaged groups.

For example, in eighth grade math, the bottom 10 percent of proficient English speakers lost more ground than the lowest-scoring English learners, Mr. Aldeman found. Similarly, his analysis showed that the lowest-scoring students who did not have a disability fell more than the lowest-scoring students who did. The bottom scoring middle- and higher-income students lost more ground than the bottom low-income students.

This suggests that there is something about being a low-achieving student, regardless of background, that is driving the trend.

One possible explanation is the end of No Child Left Behind, the contentious school accountability law President George W. Bush signed in 2002.

The law is perhaps best known for its legacy of standardized testing, including annual exams in math and reading in third through eighth grade.

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But it also put a sharp focus on low performers, part of Mr. Bush’s campaign against what he called “the soft bigotry of low expectations” in public schools. The law set a goal of having all students reach proficiency. Schools were required to break out testing data by race, income and special education status, and schools that did not show progress could face penalties.

It corresponded with a period of rapid improvement in test scores, particularly in math. Reading scores also improved, though more modestly.

The biggest increases were for students at the bottom.

But the law was also deeply unpopular on the left and the right.

Critics argued it was too punitive, with unrealistic goals. Many said it led a “drill and kill” culture of teaching to the test, leaving less time for other important subjects like social studies and the arts.

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By the early 2010s, states had gotten waivers from the law, and in 2015, the Every Student Succeeds Act returned power to the states, which in many cases led to more relaxed accountability.

Around the same time, scores among low performers began to fall.

“When we had meaningful accountability at the state and local level, kids were doing better,” said Margaret Spellings, Mr. Bush’s education secretary from 2005 to 2009. “When we stopped doing that, we went the wrong direction.”

School policies are most likely only part of the picture.

Adults have also been struggling with literacy since 2012, not only in the United States but also in other countries, according to an international survey of 16- to 65-year-olds.

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The declines were driven by adults in the bottom tier of literacy, a shift that could not be explained by demographic trends, said Andreas Schleicher, director for education and skills at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which manages the survey.

He and other researchers pointed to another possibility: the rise of smartphones, which before 2013 had not reached half of American adults. Today, 90 percent of U.S. adults and a similar share of teenagers own a smartphone, as do one in three 9-year-olds.

It’s not entirely clear why smartphone use would have a greater effect on low performers. But smartphones also take time away from other activities. Children (and adults) are reading fewer books than in the past, with low-scoring students being the least likely to read recreationally.

Still, other societal changes could also be at play.

After the Great Recession, states cut school spending, leading to teacher layoffs and other cutbacks. The spending cuts took place over several years, peaking in the 2011-2012 school year. Experts say the cuts were more likely to affect low-scoring students, who tend to be in poor school districts that relied heavily on state funding.

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“Many things can be true at the same time, but I’m confident that changes in school spending over time are a big part of it,” said Kirabo Jackson, an economist at Northwestern University, whose research found that students most exposed to Great Recession cuts experienced greater declines in test scores and college attendance.

Part of the answer may lie in simply focusing on students at the bottom, said Carey Wright, the former state superintendent in Mississippi, where the lowest-performing students have defied national trends.

Mississippi’s lowest-scoring fourth graders have improved since 2013, and eighth graders have fallen less than the national average. Mississippi received widespread attention for dramatically improving reading scores after adopting a new, phonics-based approach to teaching reading in 2013.

But the state also approved a new school accountability policy that same year. Schools receive A-F letter grades based on how well students perform on tests, with an emphasis on the progress made by the lowest 25 percent of students. Literacy coaches are also assigned to the lowest-performing schools.

“We really started drawing teachers’ eyes, principals’ eyes, to who is in the bottom? What do they need?” said Dr. Wright, now the superintendent in Maryland.

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Soon, though, there could be even less reliable information on how the lowest-performing students are doing, as the Trump administration seeks to shrink the role of the federal government in education.

As part of a major downsizing at the U.S. Department of Education last month, the Trump administration laid off nearly all federal employees who work on education research, including the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the only test that makes it possible to compare students across the country.

The cuts could hamper the national test, which is required by law every two years.

“Eventually, I hope we’re going to be closing these gaps,” said Thomas Kane, an economist at Harvard University who focuses on student achievement. But the test results are “the only way we’re going to know it.”

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Education

Opinion | America’s Military Needs a Culture Shift

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Opinion | America’s Military Needs a Culture Shift

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The U.S. military
is broken. Young
Americans want
to fix it.

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Bailey Baumbick traded a
career as a national security
consultant to build tech
solutions
for the challenges
she saw at the Pentagon.

Elias Rosenfeld left a job
in social
impact consulting
to start a career aimed
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at revitalizing America’s
industrial base.

Lee Kantowski spent
eight years in the
Army before
switching to defense tech,
where
he hopes to fix the
military’s outdated tools.

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a New

Definition of

Service

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Bailey Baumbick knew she wanted to serve her country when she graduated from Notre Dame in 2021. Ms. Baumbick, a 26-year-old from Novi, Mich., didn’t enlist in the military, however. She enrolled in business school at the University of California, Berkeley.

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Ms. Baumbick is part of a growing community in the Bay Area that aims to bring high-tech dynamism to the lumbering world of the military. After social media companies and countless lifestyle start-ups lost their luster in recent years, entrepreneurs are being drawn to defense tech by a mix of motivations: an influx of venture capital, a coolness factor and the start-up ethos, which Ms. Baumbick describes as “the relentless pursuit of building things.”

There’s also something deeper: old-fashioned patriotism, matched with a career that serves a greater purpose.

In college Ms. Baumbick watched her father, a Ford Motor Company executive, lead the company’s sprint to produce Covid-19 ventilators and personal protective equipment for front-line health care workers. “I’ve never been more inspired by how private sector industry can have so much impact for public sector good,” she said.

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Ford’s interventions during the Covid-19 pandemic hark back to a time when public-private partnerships were commonplace. During World War II, leaders of America’s biggest companies, including Ford, halted business as usual to manufacture weapons for the war effort.

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The Covid-19 pandemic drove public-private partnerships, such as Ford’s decision to produce ventilators needed by patients and hospitals.

For much of the 20th century, the private and public sectors were tightly woven together. In 1980, nearly one in five Americans were veterans. By 2022, that figure had shrunk to one in 16. Through the 1980s, about 70 percent of the companies doing business with the Pentagon were also leaders in the broader U.S. economy. That’s down to less than 10 percent today. The shift away from widespread American participation in national security has left the Department of Defense isolated from two of the country’s great assets: its entrepreneurial spirit and technological expertise.

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Recent changes in Silicon Valley are bringing down those walls. Venture capital is pouring money into defense tech; annual investment is up from $7 billion in 2015 to some $80 billion in 2025. The Pentagon needs to seize this opportunity, and find ways to accelerate its work with start-ups and skilled workers from the private sector. It should expand the definition of what it means to serve and provide more flexible options to those willing to step in.

The military will always need physically fit service members. But we are headed toward a future where software will play a bigger role in armed conflict than hardware, from unmanned drones and A.I.-driven targeting to highly engineered cyber weapons and space-based systems. These missions will be carried out by service members in temperature-controlled rooms rather than well armed troops braving the physical challenges of the front line.

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For all the latent opportunity in Silicon Valley and beyond, the Trump administration has been uneven in embracing the moment. Stephen Feinberg, the deputy secretary of defense, is a Wall Street billionaire who is expanding the Pentagon’s ties with businesses. Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, his “warrior ethos” and exclusionary recruitment have set back the effort to build a military for the future of war.

America has the chance to reshape our armed forces for the conflicts ahead, and we have the rare good fortune of being able to do that in peacetime.

Elias Rosenfeld had been at Stanford for only a month and a half, but he already looked right at home at a recent job fair for students interested in pursuing defense tech, standing in a relaxed posture, wearing beaded bracelets and a sweater adorned with a single sunflower. Rather than use his time in Stanford’s prestigious business school to build a fintech app or wellness brand, Mr. Rosenfeld has set his sights on helping to rebuild the industrial base on which America’s military relies.

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It’s a crucial mission for a country that is getting outbuilt by China, and Mr. Rosenfeld brings a unique commitment to it. Born in Venezuela, he came to the United States at age 6 and draws his patriotism from that country’s experience with tyranny and his Jewish heritage. “Without a strong, resilient America, I might not be here today,” Mr. Rosenfeld says. Working on industrial renewal, he says, is a way to “start delivering as a country so folks feel more inclined and passionate to be more patriotic.”

Not on Mr. Rosenfeld’s agenda: enlisting in the military. In an earlier era, he might have been tempted by a wider suite of options for service. In 1955 the U.S. government nearly doubled the maximum size of the military’s ready reserve forces, from 1.5 million to 2.9 million, in part by giving young men the chance to spend six months in active duty training. Today the U.S. ready reserve numbers just over a million.

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The Pentagon should broaden its sense of service as fewer younger Americans meet the military’s eligibility requirements.

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Other countries provide a model for strengthening the reserves. In Sweden, the military selects the top 5 percent or so of 18-year-olds eligible to serve in the active military for up to 15 months, followed by membership in the reserve for 10 years. The model is so effective that recruits compete for spots, and according to The Wall Street Journal, “former conscripts are headhunted by the civil service and prized by tech companies.”

America’s leaders have argued for a generation that the military’s volunteer model is superior to conscription in delivering a well-prepared force. The challenge is maintaining recruiting and getting the right service members for every mission. There are some examples of the Pentagon successfully luring new, tech-savvy recruits. Since last year, top college students have been training to meet the government’s growing need for skilled cybersecurity professionals. The Cyber Service Academy, a scholarship-for-service program, covers the full cost of tuition and educational expenses in exchange for a period of civilian employment within the Defense Department upon graduation. Scholars work in full-time, cyber-related positions.

The best incentive for enlisting may have nothing to do with service, but the career opportunities that are promised after.

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It was a foregone conclusion that Lee Kantowski would become an Army officer. One of his favorite high school teachers had served, and his hometown, Lawton, Okla., was a military town, a place where enlisting was commonplace. Mr. Kantowski attended West Point and, in the eight years after graduating, went on tours across the world. Now he’s getting an M.B.A. at U.C. Berkeley, co-founded a defense tech club with Ms. Baumbick there and works part-time at a start-up building guidance devices that turn dumb bombs into smart ones.

The military needs recruits like Mr. Kantowski who want to support defense in and out of uniform. Already, nearly one million people who work for the Department of Defense are civilians, supplemented by a similar number of contractors who straddle public and private sectors. Both paths could be expanded.

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A rotating-door approach carries some risk to military cohesion and readiness. The armed services are not just another job: Soldiers are asked to put themselves in danger’s way, even outside combat zones. America still needs men and women who are willing to sign up for traditional tours of duty.

The Reserve Officers’ Training Corps serves as the largest source of commissioned officers for the U.S. military. For more than five decades, R.O.T.C. has paid for students to pursue degree programs — accompanied by military drills and exercises — and then complete three to 10 years of required service after graduation. In 1960 alone, Stanford and M.I.T. each graduated about 100 R.O.T.C. members. Today, that figure is less than 20 combined. The Army has recently closed or reorganized programs at 84 campuses and may cut funding over the next decade.

This is exactly the wrong call. R.O.T.C. programs should be strengthened and expanded, not closed or merged.

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The U.S. Army is closing or reorganizing Reserve Officers’ Training Corps programs across the country.

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It remains true that the volunteer force has become a jobs program for many Americans looking for a ladder to prosperity. It’s an aspect of service often more compelling to enlistees than the desire to fight for their country. In the era of artificial intelligence and expected job displacement, enlistment could easily grow.

Most military benefits have never been more appealing, with signing and retention bonuses, tax-free housing and food allowances, subsidized mortgages, low-cost health care, universal pre-K, tuition assistance and pensions. The Department of Defense and Congress need to find ways to bolster these benefits and their delivery, where service members often find gaps.

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Standardizing post-service counseling and mentorship could help. Expanding job training programs like Skillbridge, which pairs transitioning service members with private sector internships, could also improve job prospects. JPMorgan has hired some 20,000 veterans across the country since creating an Office of Military & Veterans Affairs in 2011; it has also helped create a coalition of 300 companies dedicated to hiring vets.

When veterans land in promising companies — or start their own — it’s not just good for them. It’s also good for America. Rylan Hamilton and Austin Gray, two Navy veterans, started Blue Water Autonomy last year with the goal of building long-range drone ships that could help the military expand its maritime presence without the costs, risks and labor demands of deploying American sailors.

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Blue Water Autonomy, founded and staffed by Navy veterans, is building fully autonomous naval vessels capable of operating at sea for months at a time.

Mr. Gray, a former naval intelligence officer who worked in a drone factory in Ukraine, said Blue Water’s vessels will one day do everything from ferrying cargo to carrying out intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. This summer, the company raised $50 million to construct a fully autonomous ship stretching 150 feet long.

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Before dawn on a Wednesday morning in October, military packs filled with supplies and American flags sat piled on a dewy field near the edge of Stanford University’s campus. Some of the over 900 attendees at a conference on defense tech gathered around an active-duty soldier studying at the school. The glare of his head lamp broke through the darkness as he rallied the group of students, founders, veterans and investors for a “sweat equity” workout.

“Somewhere, a platoon worked out at 0630 to start their day,” he said. “This conference is all about supporting folks like them, so we are going to start our day the same way.” The group set off for Memorial Church at the center of campus, sharing the load of heavy packs, flags and equipment along the way.

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A group of students, founders, veterans and investors participate in a run during a defense tech conference at Stanford University.

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That attitude is a big change for the Bay Area, not just from the days of 1960s hippie sit-ins but also from the early days of the tech revolution, when Silicon Valley was seen as a bastion of government-wary coders and peaceniks. Now it’s open for business with the Defense Department. “The excitement is there, the concern is there, the passion is there and the knowledge is there,” says Ms. Baumbick.

There are some risks to tying America’s military more closely to the tech-heavy private sector. Companies don’t always act in the country’s national interest. Elon Musk infamously limited the Ukrainian military’s access to its Starlink satellites, preventing them being used to help in a battle with Russian forces in 2022. Private companies are also easier for adversaries to penetrate and influence than the government.

Yet in order to prevent wars, or win them, we must learn to manage the risks of overlap between civilian and military spheres. The private sector’s newly rekindled interest in the world of defense is a generational chance to build the military that Americans need.

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Portraits by Aleksey Kondratyev for The New York Times; Carlos Osorio/Associated Press; Mike Segar/Reuters; Maddy Pryor/Princeton University; Kevin Wicherski/Blue Water Autonomy; Aleksey Kondratyev for The New York Times (2).

The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

Published Dec. 12, 2025

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Video: One Hundred Schoolchildren Released After Abduction in Nigeria

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Video: One Hundred Schoolchildren Released After Abduction in Nigeria

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transcript

transcript

One Hundred Schoolchildren Released After Abduction in Nigeria

One hundred children who had been kidnapped from a Catholic school in northwestern Nigeria last month were released on Sunday. This is part of a larger trend of kidnappings in Nigeria, where victims are released in exchange for ransom.

“Medical checkup will be very, very critical for them. And then if anything is discovered, any laboratory investigation is conducted and something is discovered, definitely they will need health care.” My excitement is that we have these children, 100 of them, and by the grace of God, we are expecting the remaining half to be released very soon.”

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One hundred children who had been kidnapped from a Catholic school in northwestern Nigeria last month were released on Sunday. This is part of a larger trend of kidnappings in Nigeria, where victims are released in exchange for ransom.

By Jamie Leventhal

December 8, 2025

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Video: Testing Wool Coats In a Walk-in Fridge

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new video loaded: Testing Wool Coats In a Walk-in Fridge

When style writer Nicola Fumo realized she’d need to test wool coats before it got too cold out, she accepted the challenge.

November 24, 2025

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