Back in September, The Athletic’s NFL staff made picks for MVP, Super Bowl champion and more. Two months later, the season’s (approximate) midseason point, is the perfect time to update those predictions. Some things remained the same (like the consensus Super Bowl LIX matchup), while others have changed (MVP and Super Bowl winner picks).

Forty-six staffers responded. Here are their predictions.

Voter fatigue might have been a factor in Lamar Jackson drawing zero MVP votes in our poll two months ago, but his performance to this point has been undeniable. Patrick Mahomes was the pick before the season started, but while he’s been better than his box-score statline would suggest he might have too steep a statistical hill to climb to overtake Jackson.

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Like his quarterback teammate who now leads the MVP race, Derrick Henry didn’t draw a single OPOY vote from our staff in the preseason, though Henry now seems to be a healthy second half of the season away from clinching the award for a second time in his career. The two top vote-getters in September have been done in by injuries — Tyreek Hill to his quarterback, and Christian McCaffrey to himself.

Watt finished third in the preseason vote, behind Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. Parsons’ injury and Garrett’s (relatively) down season have swung the door open for Watt to win DPOY honors for a second time — which would put him one trophy away from catching big brother J.J., a three-time winner with the Houston Texans. Warner and Chris Jones also drew votes in September’s poll.

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Jayden Daniels finished second to the draft’s top pick, Caleb Williams, in the preseason vote. Though while Williams’ play has improved as the season has gone on, Daniels has been spectacular and is primarily responsible for the staggering turnaround of the Commanders’ on-field fortunes. (Also, while we didn’t split the rookie vote into Offensive and Defensive awards like the NFL does, one voter did highlight Rams edge rusher Jared Verse as the top defensive rookie.)

The Chiefs drew 28 of 42 votes (67 percent) to win the AFC in September, and now get a similar share (63 percent) at midseason. They have run into some injury issues (specifically top receiver Rashee Rice) coming off a 21-game season a year ago, but with a perfect record things are set up to run through Kansas City in the AFC playoffs. There’s not much reason to move off the two-time defending champs.

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While the Lions were the preseason pick with less than half the vote (16 of 42, 38 percent), their performance in the first half of the season, specifically of late, has made them heavy favorites in the NFC (87 percent of the vote). The Packers, 49ers and Eagles were second, third, and fourth, respectively, in September as well.

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While the two conference champion picks held from the summer, the Lions have won over the staff’s confidence when it comes to potentially lifting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl LIX. While the Chiefs got more than half the vote (23 of 42) in September, Detroit drew only two votes to win the Super Bowl before the season started, tied for fifth (behind the Chiefs, 49ers, Texans and Bengals) at that time.

What they said

“The Dolphins are flawed on defense and can’t afford more than two more losses, but they’ve got a supercharged offense and the conducive schedule (Rams, Raiders, Patriots, Browns, Jets twice) to go on a run and steal the AFC’s seventh playoff spot.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer

“It’s the 49ers if they get Christian McCaffrey back and he’s able to stay on the field. Otherwise, I’d go with the Bengals.” — Mike Sando, NFL senior writer

“I almost picked the 49ers to win the NFC despite their 4-4 start. They have played shorthanded all season, and while they’re not getting Brandon Aiyuk or Javon Hargrave back I think they have enough elsewhere to win it all if things break right. Brock Purdy has taken another step, and the offensive line has more upside than in previous years. If Christian McCaffrey gets right, San Francisco could be a juggernaut again.” — David DeChant, senior editor

“The Rams are in a vulnerable division, and the offense is getting healthy.” — R.J. Kraft, staff editor

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What they said

“Doug Pederson is under the most pressure; Jaguars ownership publicly set expectations so high entering the season.” — Mike Sando, NFL senior writer

“It might already be unsalvageable in Dallas, but there’s no way Jerry Jones can turn back to Mike McCarthy if this thing goes further off the rails.” — Jim Ayello, senior editor

“You just don’t bench a 22-year-old quarterback who was the fourth overall pick for his 39-year-old backup if you aren’t all-in on this year.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills beat writer

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Sam Hodde / Getty Images, Patrick McDermott / Getty Images, Cooper Neill / Getty Images)

I was in the seventh grade the first time sports writing gave me a visceral feeling. UConn capped a 39-0 season to win its third national title in eight years, and I anxiously awaited the delivery of Sports Illustrated.

When it arrived, Maryland’s Juan Dixon graced the cover, but across the April 8, 2002, edition of the magazine’s top, it read: “UConn’s AMAZING WOMEN, Pg. 44.”

I immediately flipped past “Faces in the Crowd,” where you could reliably see female athletes in the magazine in 2002, and tore through the feature that detailed the lives of UConn’s close-knit seniors: Sue Bird, Swin Cash, Asjha Jones and Tamika Williams. How they lived together off campus. Cooked weekly family dinners. Fought over card games and bet about who would be the first to cry on senior night. … I ate it up.

These details stayed with me years later, because as a women’s college basketball fan in the 1990s and 2000s, there wasn’t much out there to consume about the most exciting teams and players. You rarely forgot anything. Facts just existed in your brain (sometimes for the next 20 years).

After rereading the UConn story, I turned to the back page to check out the column I always read — “Life of Reilly.”

The headline? “Out of Touch with My Feminine Side.”

“You think it’s hard coaching in the Final Four? You think it’s tough handling 280-pound seniors, freshmen with agents, athletic directors with pockets full of pink slips?” columnist Rick Reilly began. “Please. Try coaching seventh-grade girls. After working with boys for 11 years, I helped coach my daughter Rae’s school basketball team this winter. I learned something about seventh-grade girls: They’re usually in the bathroom.”

Those few pages about UConn’s intense, elite women were sandwiched by a three-word headline on the cover and 800 words better suited for bad movies or lazy literature on the back page. It was disappointing and frustrating. Worst of all, even to my seventh-grade self, it was expected.

For so much of sports history, women athletes (and their fans) have had to accept the highs with the lows and move forward, understanding that too often the lows were intentional — a lack of investment, institutional support or attention. Later, those lows were artificial reasons to continue holding down and holding back the sport. It’s the women’s sports Catch-22.

The “Caitlin Clark Effect” poured over into the WNBA this summer, and teams across the league — not just the Fever — drew record crowds and massive TV ratings. As the women’s college season began this week, even without the stars that pushed women’s college hoops to new levels, interest remains.

Defending champion South Carolina sold out its season ticket packages for the first time in program history. UConn sold out its season tickets for the first time since 2004. LSU and Iowa, without Angel Reese and Clark, respectively, sold out. Texas, Notre Dame and Tennessee are also reporting huge increases.

Five months before the national title game, tickets are sold out for the Final Four, and the resale market is buzzing. Nosebleeds for the national championship game are nearly $200, while a courtside seat will run close to $3,000.

For the first time since 2004-05, our Gampel Pavilion season tickets are SOLD OUT!

Limited season tickets remain for XL Center games ➡️ https://t.co/SLhPATBr4S pic.twitter.com/QGyhYGh81F

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— UConn Women’s Basketball (@UConnWBB) October 2, 2024

Nobody in women’s hoops has won like Dawn Staley — Final Fours as a player, national titles as a coach, Olympic golds as a player, Olympic gold as a coach. Her South Carolina office drips with memorabilia. Yet, among all of her special accomplishments, this particular moment in women’s college basketball feels uniquely different to her. “It feels like we’re free to just explore where this game can go,” she said. “There’s no boundaries on us, and because of that, you’re seeing talent, you’re seeing coaching, you’re seeing fan support, you’re seeing viewership — you’re seeing all of those things.”

Staley speaks often and openly about how the women’s game was intentionally held back by so many for so long. First, by the exclusion of women in sports before Title IX. Then, by the NCAA, which prioritized men’s college basketball. Also, by television media partners, which refused to put the game in front of as many as possible (and then used that lack of audience as a reason to not air it on major networks), and in print media coverage, which refused to write about women’s sports (and then often claimed no one read about it).

Then came last season. A year in which the women’s national title game pulled in nearly 4 million more viewers than the men’s title game, just three years after the Kaplan Report exposed the NCAA’s intentional undervaluing of the game and allowing its media partners to underpay.

“This,” Staley said, with a pause, motioning with her hands to indicate everything over the past year. “I never thought it would come during a time when I could be a part of it.”

Anyone who has been around women’s basketball will share guarded optimism as well as excitement for this season. Will this finally be the tipping point? Will the forces that held back the game permanently move out of the way?

Tara VanDerveer has seen it all, including what she thought was the turning point. Twenty-two thousand people showed up for Iowa vs. Ohio State in 1985, her first season in Columbus. But it turned out to be an outlier. Throughout her career, which began with her driving the team bus and doing the laundry as an assistant coach and ended last season at Stanford with three title rings and 1,216 career wins, she experienced those starts and stops, times when a moment could’ve turned into momentum if it had investment, support and excitement.

“We needed to build on that, not have it be a one-off,” VanDerveer said. “Keeping our eye on the ball, keeping having the game grow. More young girls playing. Great high school tournaments, enthusiasm for the college game. People being excited about the WNBA.”

VanDerveer says today feels like that.

Clark pushed the game to new heights last season. This year, USC’s JuJu Watkins, UConn’s Paige Bueckers and the Gamecocks — on a 39-game winning streak — are poised to continue the momentum. NIL has completely changed how women’s basketball players are marketed (and given them power), bringing in new fans. The transfer portal opened player movement and democratized the game’s increasing parity. Look around and you’ll see as many as 10 teams that look capable of heading to the Final Four. Gone are the days when a UConn or Tennessee could win so much they were blamed as being bad for the sport.

Less than a week into the season, we’ve already seen top-five teams pushed to the brink. The talented stars in women’s hoops? They draw. But the parity, which has never been better, and true belief that on any given night, anything could happen? That’s riveting.

What we’re seeing is long overdue, and it still feels like it’s just getting started.

For decades, women’s college hoops deserved better than playing second fiddle in the NCAA’s orbit. It needed to be untethered so that the moments could fit together into something bigger and better. It was worthy of more than three words on the front cover and a patronizing column on the back page. It deserved the full spread. So please, decision-makers and stakeholders, don’t mess this up.

There’s a new generation of seventh-graders watching.

(Photo of Dawn Staley: Sean Rayford / Getty Images)

A weekly ritual begins when the clock strikes 7pm on a Sunday in Germany.

Whether over a barbecue, a meet-up with friends, or from the comfort of their homes, hundreds of thousands settle in for their dose of NFL action, much like their American counterparts.

On the channel that broadcasts the German versions of I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here! (Ich bin ein Star — Holt mich hier raus!) and Germany’s Got Talent (Das Supertalent), fans can watch one of the early slate games live followed by another in the later slot. Two games for, well, nothing. The free-to-air German-language broadcast makes viewing easy and is helping to attract a new generation of NFL enthusiasts in Europe.

Close to 70,000 will visit the sold-out Allianz Arena in Munich on Sunday as the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers face off in the final game of this year’s international series, giving German fans the rare chance to experience the NFL live on home soil.

It will be the fourth time Germany has hosted a regular-season game, the first being at the same venue in 2022 while Frankfurt’s Deutsche Bank Park played host to two games in 2023, which was the year RTL started broadcasting NFL games in the country after acquiring exclusive free-to-air rights until 2028.

The broadcaster’s audience is growing. On average, the channel brought in 710,000 viewers during the 7pm regular-season games in 2023, up from 660,000 the year before when it was shown on ProSieben, also free-to-air. The later game averaged 490,000 viewers, an increase of 50,000 viewers from the previous season, RTL told The Athletic. 

February’s Super Bowl saw an average of 1.71million fans watch on RTL, with peaks of up to 2.27m, the broadcaster said. In the United Kingdom, by comparison, viewership peaked at 761,000 and 996,000 on broadcasters Sky Sports and ITV respectively, the latter a free-to-air channel.

“The atmosphere we are trying to bring (to the broadcast) is first and foremost fun and excitement about the game of American football, get people excited and get them to fall in love,” Patrick Esume, an expert NFL commentator on RTL, told The Athletic, “and the second step is to try to get some deep insights for those fans who have been around the NFL for some time.”

Patrick Esume, commissioner of the European League of Football, takes a selfie (Jürgen Kessler/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Esume started playing American football at the Hamburg Silver Eagles before moving to the Hamburg Blue Devils. The German balances punditry with his role as the commissioner of the European League of Football, a professional American football league founded in 2020 which has 18 teams split into three conferences. This forthcoming weekend, however, is one of the most exciting weeks in his calendar.

“It is our little Super Bowl that we have every year. It has its own style, it is unlike any other atmosphere. It is not soccer, it is not NFL in the U.S. It is different and it is special,” Esume said.

“Free coverage was the kickstarter to propel the game and the NFL to another level,” he added. Paid options with increased coverage are now available through DAZN, the NFL League Pass, and RTL+.

Tom Brady acknowledges the crowd in 2022 after his Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Seattle Seahawks at Munich’s Allianz Arena (Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images)

Daniel Jensen hosts an NFL-dedicated podcast called the Footballerei Show from Hamburg. He told The Athletic that the now-defunct NFL Europe, a competition that existed on-and-off for 15 seasons in various guises until it finally folded in 2007, provided the foundations from which interest in the sport has grown. Germany had provided the majority — and the most successful — teams in that league.

“The NFL Europe league started a base interest which has evolved,” Jensen said, adding that the absence of Bundesliga games, the top division in German soccer, on Sunday evenings, also contributes to the NFL’s popularity.

Soccer is the national sport. Historically, Germany has always been successful internationally, winning the men’s World Cup four times and the women’s World Cup twice. And in Bayern Munich, the country also boasts one of Europe’s most successful men’s teams.

Yet, Bayern’s dominance has made the Bundesliga predictable in recent history. The home team of the Allianz Arena, where Sunday’s NFL game will take place, had won 11 consecutive league titles between 2013 and 2023 before Bayer Leverkusen broke the spell last season.

In the same period, there were eight different Super Bowl winners. The NFL’s ability to level the playing field with salary caps and the draft offers German sports fans a variety and unpredictability they don’t often get in soccer, a sport where the most successful teams are often the wealthiest, and who consequently attract the best players. The NFL also provides fans with the physicality and combativeness lacking in some other popular sports in the country.

Last year, the regular season game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt sold out in 15 minutes, with 1.42million people in the online ticket queue within two minutes, according to Sports Illustrated. The game averaged a regular season record of 1.35m viewers and peaked at 1.51m on RTL.

According to the NFL, there are approximately 19million fans in Germany, with 3.6m (18.9 per cent) following the NFL closely.

“I think around 20 to 25 per cent (of viewers) have a good grasp of the game and the rules, but the vast majority is actually around American football because they love the atmosphere that the broadcast brings to their living room,” explained Esume.

“They are there for the social part of it and then through that fall in love. It is our job to ensure we get more football experts here in Germany.”

On Instagram, as seen in the table below, the Chiefs and the New England Patriots are the most popular teams in Germany.

“Different teams become popular depending on the era,” Jensen said. “All the German fans were into the ’90s Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, and Pittsburgh Steelers, the Patriots and Green Bay Packers during the 2000s and 2010s, and the Chiefs right now. It is not like we have real roots with the teams like in America, so it is about finding a team you like.”

Ten NFL teams have international marketing rights in Germany as part of the NFL’s Global Markets Program, which allows franchises to build brand awareness and fandom beyond the US. Mexico is the only other country with the same amount.

It perhaps helps that there are plenty of German representatives in the NFL, too. Jakob Johnson is a fullback for the Giants, Marcel Dabo is on the Indianapolis Colts practice squad, while Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones has worn a German flag on his helmet after spending time there during his childhood as his parents were in the U.S. Army. Indeed, the origins of the sport in Germany date back to when American soldiers were stationed in the country after the Second World War.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, a wide receiver for the Detroit Lions who was ranked the 23rd best player in the NFL by his fellow players in the NFL Top 100 Players of 2024, has a German mother, so possesses dual citizenship, and can speak German.

“St. Brown is not that much of a German sports star, like big soccer stars for example, more an NFL superstar at the moment but the next step would be to become more of a public figure in Germany and it would be very interesting to see if that is possible,” Jensen said.

Off the field, Gerrit Meier, head of the NFL’s international operations, is also a dual German and U.S. citizen. But for now, at least, some of the biggest stars in the country are former players who have become part of RTL’s expert line-up.

Esume said: “The vast majority of viewers see more of our on-air stars such as Bjoern Werner (former first-round pick and global ambassador for the Colts), Markus Kuhn (who played with the Giants), and Sebastian Vollmer (two-time Super Bowl champion with the Patriots).

“They are the true German rock stars when it comes to the NFL. They are even bigger stars than the active German NFL players because they are on our TVs every week.”

Encouraging for the sport, and RTL, is that younger audiences are showing an interest in the NFL. RTL recorded 23 per cent of their market, on average, as 14 to 29-year-old males during the 2023 regular season.

Duke Dennis returns an interception for a touchdown during a celebrity flag football game on 9 February, 2024, in Las Vegas (Ian Maule/Getty Images)

However, as Jensen points out, there is still work that needs to be done to increase participation.

The German Olympic Sports Confederation (DOSB) has 500 registered football teams with more than 70,000 members, according to sports marketing agency SPORTFIVE.  As of 2023, the German Basketball Association (DBB) had 242,344 members.

“Participation (in Germany) is the part the NFL needs to develop and work on,” said Jensen. “Issues with concussions and chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) can be off-putting but that is why flag football will be good for the future.”

Flag football, where ball carriers are deemed to have been tackled when one, or both, of two flags attached to their waist are pulled off by a defending player, will appear at the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

The NFL say the non-contact version of its sport is the world’s fastest-growing sport, with 20million players in 100 countries.

“Basketball is more developed in that part. It is a lot more of a domestic sport, people playing in our own league. But the NFL is more popular than the NBA right now,” he said.

There are 14 German players in the NFL Academy, based at Loughborough University in the United Kingdom. Since 2019, the program has provided full-time high-school education alongside American football training. More than 40 students have gone to the U.S. on scholarships, with 19 in NCAA Division 1 this season.

“The next step, I think, is to bring something like that to Germany,” Jensen added.

Whether it is for the entertainment, the variety or to watch homegrown players on the sport’s biggest stage, increasingly more Germans are booking out their Sunday evenings.

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Meech Robinson)