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ATHENS, Ga. — Kirby Smart made it sound dire. On paper, Smart coaches the most talented college football team in America. But as he has surveyed his roster this month — deep down the roster — it’s confirmed a fear: Fewer people are playing football, and that is affecting the quality of the game.

“I feel like we have less depth than we’ve ever had, and that’s kind of a common theme talking to other coaches,” Smart said. “I call it the deterioration of football.”

A Georgia high school coach echoed the feeling.

“There is definitely a decline in the number of kids that are playing the game,” said Adam Carter, the coach at Lowndes High in Valdosta. “I think there are multiple reasons. Football is hard work, it is over the summer and the number of parents in this generation who will not let their kids play at an early age. This means they only play baseball, basketball, soccer, etc., and never make it to a football field once they get older.”

So are they right? Even as football never has been more popular to watch and has never made more money, are fewer people playing? And is this a giant warning sign for the future of the game?

The data tells a complex story (and several other high school coaches contacted say they have record numbers of players).

“We’re encouraged by the numbers that are out there and the numbers of people that are playing,” said Steve Hatchell, the head of the National Football Foundation.

Kirby Smart is entering his ninth season as Georgia’s coach. (Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)

Whatever the case, stewards of the game acknowledge the concerns and say they will continue to make moves to make the game safer.

“There’s just a general awareness that we needed to make player behavior changes for the good of the athletes and to keep the game viable,” said Steve Shaw, the NCAA’s coordinator of officials and head of the football rules committee. “I would tell you that nothing is more important.”

First, a look at the data:

• Participation in high school football, after trending down from 2015 through 2022, slightly has increased each of the past two years: 1,031,508 played 11-man football during the 2023 season, an increase of about 3,000 from the previous season, per data compiled by the National Federation for High Schools.

• The downside: The numbers are still down from the 1,136,301 recorded in 2009, and when you account for population growth, it’s a lower percentage of the available talent pool.

• At the same time, the number of colleges and universities sponsoring football teams has continued to climb: 774 this season, including six new ones this fall, with 51 new programs since 2008, per the National Football Foundation. And the number of FBS (formerly Division I-A) schools has grown from 112 in 1998 to 134 this year, as more schools chase the dollars in the game.

So there are more college teams but a static amount of talent. The obvious conclusion: Smart and fellow coaches may be right because the supply of talent hasn’t kept up with the demand.

Another factor, as Carter pointed to, is children not playing football, or at least tackle football, until later, whether it was middle school or even high school. Smart pointed to regulations at the high school level, aimed at safety, for the number of practices per week and the amount of tackling and physical contact.

“High school’s not having as much of an opportunity to develop kids because their practice regimen and practice schedule is tougher,” Smart said. “It’s a trickle-up effect, so we get the guys coming from the high school level.”

Smart, it should be pointed out, doesn’t necessarily have a problem with that. He often has talked about wanting the game to be safe for his son, who is 12 and has played football. Smart is on the NCAA rules committee and has been a part of making rules aimed at making the game safer.

The NCAA’s most tangible change was the targeting rule, which went into effect as a 15-yard penalty in 2013, then an automatic ejection a year later. Fans, coaches and players have maligned the rule, but it’s not going anywhere because it’s working.

“I know a lot of times fans don’t love targeting. But honestly this is one of the best rules we’ve instituted,” Shaw said.

The rule intended to change behavior, away from headhunting and dangerous hits, and Shaw pointed to data as well as anecdotal evidence that it has worked. The number of targeting calls has trended down the last four years and was at 0.16 per game last season. And it’s not because officials are looking the other way but because players have adjusted their play because of the rule.

“That’s really good for our game,” Shaw said. “What we’ve seen is it’s changed player behavior, in their technique, how they block, how they tackle, their approach, how they use their helmet.”

Beyond targeting, the rules committee constantly has studied changes for safety purposes. It made changes to rules on blocking below the waist, to lessen knee injuries and eliminated blindside blocks.

It looked at the number of plays per game, phrasing them as “exposures.” There was a push to get fewer of them, mainly for safety reasons, but it gets more attention for making game times shorter.  The committee took 4.5-5 plays out of games, on average, thanks to the changes, most notably not stopping the clock on first downs. Fans complained about shorter games, but the aim of fewer exposures was hit, so that’s also not changing.

“The progress we’ve made there has been really good for our game, maybe saving our game,” Shaw said.

There also has been a focus on equipment, especially helmet technology. Shaw predicts that in a few years, there will be position-specific helmets, using data being compiled right now about what kind of impacts to the head each position takes. A safety needs a different helmet from a lineman, for instance, because they don’t have the repetitive hits of a lineman, but the safety needs a helmet to account for hits while on the run.

All of this, of course, followed years of bad publicity over safety in the game. And while it had a tangible impact on participation, the data says it may be reversing, not just at the high school level.

The Sports and Fitness Industry Association, which tracks participation at all youth levels, provided data that showed:

• Participation rates for 13-17-year-olds in tackle football declined from 2012 to 2017 but then increased the next six years.

• Participation rates for 6-12-year-olds in tackle football were “flat to slightly up” during the past 12 years.

• Tackle football participation did decline after 2010, “but the decline has stopped and participation stabilized in recent years” and participation has gone up each year since 2020.

“This set of data show conclusively that the discussion of tackle football participation being down dramatically and on a consistent downward trajectory is simply not true,” Tom Cove of the SFIA wrote in a report.  “And, in fact, after some challenges around the concussion issues in 2011-17 time period, tackle football participation numbers have been pretty stable and overall good.”

Hatchell pointed to flag football as a growing sport. The sport will be in the 2028 Olympics, and the number of high school girls playing flag football more than doubled last year to just fewer than 43,000.

“It’s exploding. Not just growing but exploding,” Hatchell said.

Hatchell said he and other football advocates don’t see flag football as a long-term replacement for tackle football but rather working in conjunction with it. There is agreement throughout tackle football to keep making the game safer so parents are willing to let their children play. The popularity of the game, at least in TV ratings and attendance, puts the sport in a good spot to risk those changes and sacrifice parts of the game if it means fewer injuries.

That’s not changing. And the game is not going back to the way it was.

“As the parent of someone who played, you encourage them to play tough and strong. But you want it to be safe,” Hatchell said. “That’s the No. 1 thing. And I think the rule changes have been really good about that.”

(Top photo: Andrew Nelles / USA Today)