TAMPA, Fla. — In September 2021, Will Weatherford stood between green and gold balloons under a white canopy and made the proclamation that could change the trajectory of South Florida football.

After playing their first 25 years across town at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ stadium, the Bulls were ready for their own home. Weatherford vowed an on-campus stadium — a building that has been discussed longer than the school has existed — was finally “going to happen.”

There was, South Florida’s board of trustees chairperson confessed later, a minor technicality: Weatherford had no actual plan.

No location in mind. No idea how much it would cost. No proposal to pay for it. And no contingencies for whatever industry headwinds were brewing.

“Sometimes in life,” Weatherford said, “you just have to speak things into existence.”

Like a $340 million stadium. Or, just maybe, a program’s return to major college football after being left behind.

USF administrators say the 35,000-seat venue will transform the university and transcend fall Saturdays when it opens in 2027. But it’s also a nine-figure shot at relevance for a football program that has never won a conference title or appeared in a major bowl game.

Though some premier programs are reevaluating the facilities arms race as they prepare to pay players directly, the Bulls are charging ahead with the most expensive project in program history. The risk is that borrowing $200 million becomes an albatross around the neck of a middling mid-major program that remains a middling mid-major program while the sport’s juggernauts consolidate even more power.

The potential reward is a seat back at the table for whatever the next stage of major college football is — before it’s too late.

“We don’t just want to be in the game,” Weatherford said. “We want to be competitive in the game and win.”

A stadium 70 years in the making

The first idea for a South Florida football stadium surfaced around 1957, three years before the school’s first class. County commissioners discussed zoning in the campus’ northwest corner, but university president John S. Allen didn’t want intercollegiate athletics interfering with academics. Today, buildings for continuing education and public health stand where the stadium could have been. There’s a Hooters just down the street.

Simply fielding a football team was a literal uphill challenge. The university needed a push from a Bucs legend, Hall of Famer Lee Roy Selmon, to start a Division I-AA program that debuted a dozen miles away at Tampa Bay’s NFL stadium in 1997. Players drilled on slanted fields until 2000 when Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium prepared to host Super Bowl XXXV. The NFL couldn’t let the Ravens practice on a slope, so the league helped fix it. Current athletic director Michael Kelly remembers how happy administrators were; USF got a level field and saved several thousand dollars.

Stadium ideas popped up periodically over the decades. Kelly wrote about a venue for a grad school assignment before joining the Bulls. A park committee proposed a sports complex on an island between Tampa and St. Petersburg. As Florida prepared a bid to host the 2012 Summer Olympics, officials discussed an 85,000-seat facility that could be downsized afterward for USF.

The ideas never gained traction, even as stadiums opened at comparable programs like UCF (2007), Houston (2014), Tulane (2014) and Colorado State (2017). In 1998, the Bulls’ athletic director told the St. Petersburg Times a new building “wouldn’t make any sense” because it’d be too expensive. Three weeks later, SMU broke ground on a 32,000-seat stadium that, adjusted for inflation, cost a third of USF’s proposal.

“I think everybody thought that you should (build one),” Kelly said. “But the practical realities were, there was certainly no money and not high enough on the priority list of the university at the time to make that happen.”

The university’s priorities remained academics: gaining state recognition as a preeminent school and joining the prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU). Football facilities remained lower despite the Bulls’ climb to the Big East. USF announced plans for a $22 million indoor practice facility — a practical necessity in a rainy region — under one coach (Charlie Strong), began building it under another (Jeff Scott) and opened it under a third (Alex Golesh).

The list changed in 2021 when Weatherford made his proclamation under the white canopy during the groundbreaking ceremony for the indoor facility. The former Florida statehouse speaker and Jacksonville University defensive end wondered why USF didn’t have a stadium. He never got a good reason. But he was in position to change it.

South Florida’s president left a month before Weatherford’s announcement, and Weatherford made it clear the successor would agree with his vision. Trustees made stadium progress an objective for interim president Rhea Law and one of their presidential goals after she earned the full-time job.

“I wish we would have done it a long time ago …” Weatherford said. “Just because you didn’t do it 30 years ago doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do it today.”

Even if today looks very different than it did three years ago, much less 30.

If you build it …

Though conference realignment has never been the stadium’s primary selling point, its specter has hovered in the background.

Weatherford made his proclamation as the Big 12 was on the verge of expansion; South Florida didn’t make the cut. A trustee has asked in two board meetings whether a stadium would help the Bulls get into the SEC.

When Weatherford sought final financing approval from the state, he highlighted the Bulls’ four American Athletic Conference peers — Houston, Cincinnati, SMU and rival UCF — that earned spots in the Big 12 or ACC.

“It’s no coincidence that every one of these universities also made a significant investment in their athletic facilities, either through a new stadium or making tremendous renovations to their existing one,” Weatherford said in 2023.

Though it’s no coincidence, there’s no clear cause and effect, either.

“I think it is what we would call a necessary but not sufficient condition,” said Michael Leeds, an economics professor at Temple.

Leeds has studied the impact of on-campus stadiums, and he followed Temple’s decision to stay at the Philadelphia Eagles’ venue instead of building on campus. His takeaway: Though a mid-major program probably does need an on-site stadium to move into the Power 4 …

“Building it,” Leeds said, “does not make it happen.”

But not building it might guarantee it doesn’t happen.

Though facilities are not the driving factor in realignment, they matter. To join the Mountain West as a full member, Hawaii agreed to help the state replace the inoperative Aloha Stadium by 2032.

Facilities fall under “commitment to athletics success” — one of the rebuilding Pac-12’s five expansion criteria. If there were any doubts about the commitment Colorado State and San Diego State have shown as they move from the Mountain West, they can point to the combined half a billion dollars they spent to build stadiums.

Colorado State president Amy Parsons sees them as part of a cycle. TV partners, sponsors and other schools want to associate with competitive programs that excite fan bases, play in major bowls or make the NCAA Tournament.

“And it starts with, does a school have the commitment to the program and value the program in order to compete at that level?” Parsons said.

If a school is spending nine figures on its stadium, the answer is a clear yes. Especially against these headwinds.

San Diego State opened 35,000-seat Snapdragon Stadium in 2022. (Orlando Ramirez / Imagn Images)

Skyrocketing stadium costs

When Weatherford started speaking the Bulls’ stadium into existence, San Diego State was midway through building its 35,000-seat, multipurpose stadium. Thanks in part to lower-than-expected interest rates from the pandemic, Snapdragon Stadium’s final price before opening in 2022 was $310 million.

If the Aztecs had to build it today, athletic director John David Wicker said, it would probably cost between $450 million and $500 million.

“At this point,” Wicker said, “I don’t know how feasible that would be.”

That, too, hovers in the background at South Florida.

Faculty have expressed concerns about erecting a stadium and adjoining operations center for football and the new women’s lacrosse team while classrooms had mold or leaky roofs. Citing hidden or unforeseen costs, the faculty senate’s president cast the trustees’ lone vote against the stadium budget.

A pair of 2023 memos from Florida’s Division of Bond Finance questioned “arguably ambitious” projections of ticket sales and other “historically volatile” sources. If the Bulls miss their targets and can’t handle $19.6 million in annual debt service, it warned the school risks relying on its endowment or cutting athletics’ budget.

Attendance remains a long-term question. Half of USF’s conference home games fail to draw at least 30,000 fans. And how often will teams like Alabama and Florida revisit if the SEC expands its conference schedule or starts an alliance with the Big Ten?

Doubts didn’t disappear in 2023 when trustees and the state separately approved a $340 million budget: $200 million in debt, $50 million in donations, $31 million from capital funds and the rest from sources like the sale of old broadband equipment and auxiliary parking/bookstore funds. No tax dollars are included.

Trustees still have not approved the final cost, which Weatherford said has gone up. He referred to it as a “$400 million building” in November but said recently it will be “well within what we can afford.” The project has already been postponed a year because of a backed-up supply chain — and that was before the Trump administration’s tariffs and research funding cuts added uncertainties in construction and higher education.

Those complications come as athletic departments brace for a new expense: paying players. The prospect of $20.5 million in revenue-sharing has, along with rising construction costs, reshaped the once-booming facilities arms race. Alabama, Auburn, Miami and Ole Miss have all paused or scaled back major football/basketball projects. After Maryland football moved into its new home in 2021, Mike Locksley bemoaned the timing, saying that facilities matter less in recruiting because players would “get dressed in the trash can for $25,000.”

But if the calculus was that simple, Florida wouldn’t be exploring a $1 billion upgrade to The Swamp, and Florida State wouldn’t be spending $380 million to renovate Doak Campbell Stadium and add a football operations center. The Seminoles are investing because they expect facilities to matter more again in recruiting if every school has the same de facto salary cap.

“We wanted to make sure coming out of whatever was going to happen that we were prepared to take advantage of the new age of college athletics,” Seminoles athletic director Michael Alford said.

That costs money.

The Bulls plan to max out on revenue-sharing under whatever guidelines they’re given by the conference, NCAA or courts. USF’s 2022-23 payout from the American was $8.2 million — more than $30 million less than the smallest Power 4 distribution, according to conference tax returns. To compete at the highest level possible, the Bulls are counting on help from the stadium’s new income streams: stronger ticket sales, pricier amenities, naming rights, extra events like concerts.

“You can’t share revenue,” Kelly said, “if you don’t have any.”

‘It’s still a dream’

Last fall, 38 months after Weatherford made the proclamation that could vault the Bulls back to national relevance, he stood under an even larger white canopy on a once-sloped swath of land a few hundred yards north. Green and gold streamers shot through the air as dignitaries dug golden shovels into a sand sculpture for the ceremonial groundbreaking of South Florida’s stadium.

Five months later, the ground remains unbroken.

Despite a fall groundbreaking, USF hasn’t begun construction yet. (Matt Baker / The Athletic)

Though USF planned to begin construction by the end of February, bulldozers can’t start rumbling until the guaranteed maximum price is set. The lag time isn’t expected to keep the stadium from debuting for the 2027 opener against Louisville.

From there, administrators expect it to transform the university through greater involvement from students and alumni plus rising interest from donors and prospective students. Colorado State reported its second highest enrollment last year and is on track to top it this year. Parsons said it’s impossible to quantify Canvas Stadium’s impact on those numbers, but game days are a significant recruiting tool for everyone (not just athletes).

That’s critical as schools prepare for a demographic drop in college-aged students — the so-called enrollment cliff. Increased engagement from an on-campus stadium is one way to fight it and raise a university’s academic profile.

“I won’t say that it’s a slam dunk,” said Karen Weaver, a former college coach and administrator who teaches about the intersection of higher education and athletics at Penn. “But it’s certainly a way to elevate your campus enthusiasm for athletics.”

And if that’s the goal at South Florida, Bill Sutton knows it’s feasible. He saw it firsthand.

When Sutton started working at UCF’s sport business management program, the Bulls were what the Knights aspired to be. USF was in the Big East, then a power conference, and skyrocketed to No. 2 in the nation. The War on I-4 rivalry began to turn after the Knights opened what’s now called FBC Mortgage Stadium in 2007. Sutton watched students stop wearing Florida and Florida State shirts and start supporting UCF. Fan interest and on-field success spiked, and the Knights capitalized on a perfect season and two other major bowl appearances to catapult past the Bulls and into the Big 12.

A similar leap is the dream scenario for South Florida, which is 99-117 since its week at No. 2.

“If the facility’s there, if it’s full, if the interest is there, all the things that we don’t really have right now would make the dream in play,” said Sutton, the director emeritus of USF’s Vinik Sport and Entertainment Management Program. “It’s still a dream.”

But it’s a dream that’s impossible to ignore for a program that has already been left behind once. USF is one of three ex-Big East schools that have failed to land in a power conference in football after the league splintered around 2012 and became the AAC. The other two: Temple and UConn.

The stakes are rising again. TV contracts for the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and College Football Playoff are all set to expire between 2030-34 as an escape hatch opens for ACC schools. If major realignment — Big Ten/SEC spin-off? Super league? — is coming, that’s the likeliest timeline. It’s why Parsons said the pressure to build a stadium would be even more immense now than when Colorado State started its push.

“There’s a risk if you build it. There’s a risk if you don’t,” Parsons said. “And I would say in this landscape today, the risk if you don’t is even higher.”

USF officials say they’re happy in the American. The Bulls proved that in the fall when they, along with Memphis, Tulane and UTSA, turned down interest from the new-look Pac-12 to stay put. 

But where they are now might not be where they want or need to be in 5-10 years, if the ACC needs a new foothold in Florida, or the Big 12 expands again, or a fault line divides the teams willing to ante into the sport’s highest level from the ones that aren’t.

“We just want to make sure we’re on the right side of it,” Weatherford said. “I don’t even know what the right side of it means yet, but we’ll know it when we see it.”

If college sports is entering a new era of paying players and, perhaps, super leagues, Kelly asks why it matters where programs were generations ago when conferences formed? In that case, South Florida has one of the nation’s largest student bodies and sits in a top-20, fast-growing market in a talent-rich state. The Bulls have been one of the conference’s most competitive in NIL and were among the nation’s first programs to put a sponsorship logo (Publix) on the field.

South Florida feels closer to the bottom of the Power 4 than the middle of the Group of 5, and the Bulls are willing to put a third of a billion dollars into a building to prove it.

“Everyone has to recognize their moment in history, I guess,” Kelly said. “There’s times that call for bold decisions. There’s times that call for true action.”