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Prediction: Solana Will Be the First Cryptocurrency to Get a Spot ETF in 2025 | The Motley Fool

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Prediction: Solana Will Be the First Cryptocurrency to Get a Spot ETF in 2025 | The Motley Fool

With Bitcoin and Ethereum already sporting their own funds, here’s my pick for the next up to bat.

In the wake of the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, there’s been a lot of speculation about which crypto might be next. Already, a handful of names have been suggested, including all of the usual suspects: XRP, Solana (SOL 9.57%), Cardano, Litecoin, and Avalanche.

Of these, Solana has the best chance of getting a spot ETF. In fact, this could happen as early as January 2025. From my perspective, there are two key factors that make this likely to happen.

Market demand

In terms of market cap, Solana ranks fifth among all major cryptocurrencies. That’s a huge determining factor, because market cap can be useful as a proxy for investor demand. As a general rule of thumb, Wall Street isn’t going to launch a product if there isn’t sufficient demand for it, so it’s worth looking into how much demand is coming from both retail and institutional investors.

Image source: Getty Images.

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At the end of June, crypto investment firm GSR ran the numbers and concluded that Solana trailed only Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of overall demand. The firm’s “demand analysis” took into account three key factors: (1) market cap and overall trading volume, (2) assets under management of investment products already in the marketplace, and (3) size, activity, and reach of the online community for a specific token. Across all of these metrics, Solana outpaced rivals XRP, Cardano, and Avalanche.

There’s also great data available from CoinShares, which tracks institutional investor inflows into and out of the major cryptocurrencies. According to its latest report from early August, Solana still has a clear lead over major rivals such as XRP, Cardano, and Litecoin in terms of year-to-date inflows. That being said, investor inflows into both Bitcoin and Ethereum dwarf anything that’s happening with Solana right now.

Regulatory outlook

Of course, there’s no way that a Solana ETF is going to be approved if regulators have any doubts over whether Solana might actually be a security. This was the one factor that was hanging over Solana during much of the past year. But at the end of July, the SEC appeared to back down from its earlier stance when it acknowledged that it would no longer be looking into Solana as a potential security. If you’re hoping for a Solana ETF, that’s exactly what you want to see happen.

Moreover, it’s important to keep an eye on what’s happening in other financial markets, beyond the borders of the U.S. For example, in August, Brazilian regulators approved a spot Solana ETF. If that performs well in Brazil, then it could make it much easier to approve a U.S. version of the ETF. And, indeed, investment firm VanEck — one of only two firms that have already submitted a spot Solana ETF application to the SEC — now says that a Solana ETF is “inevitable.” I wouldn’t go that far, but it is looking good right now for Solana.

What to look for in 2024

As we saw from the recent market mini-crash in early August, there’s still quite a bit of volatility in the crypto market. Any sustained sell-off over the next few months would likely push back the launch date of a Solana ETF, simply due to the lack of investor demand for the product. Moreover, the SEC is unlikely to sign off on much of anything if the crypto market is showing signs of weakness, or if demand dries up for existing crypto ETFs.

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So keep your eye on the overall health of the crypto market, as well as investor inflows into the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. If the trend is positive, then I’m much more bullish on a spot Solana ETF launching in early 2025. And if pro-crypto sentiment gains hold in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, then I would be even more bullish.

That being said, Solana is a high-risk, high-upside crypto investment. So if you are thinking about investing in Solana, make sure you do your due diligence. Investing in a Solana ETF would help to mitigate some of this risk, but it can’t eliminate the risk of holding Solana entirely.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Avalanche, Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Bitcoin miner's claim to recover £600m in Newport tip thrown out

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Bitcoin miner's claim to recover £600m in Newport tip thrown out

During the hearing in December the court heard how Mr Howells had been an early adopter of Bitcoin and had successfully mined the cryptocurrency.

As the value of his missing digital wallet soared, Mr Howells organised a team of experts to attempt to locate, recover and access the hard drive.

He had repeatedly asked permission from the council for access to the site, and had offered it a share of the missing Bitcoin if it was successfully recovered.

Mr Howells successfully “mined” the Bitcoin in 2009 for almost nothing, and says he forgot about it altogether when he threw it out.

The value of the cryptocurrency rose by more than 80% in 2024.

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But James Goudie KC, for the council, argued that existing laws meant the hard drive had become its property when it entered the landfill site. It also said that its environmental permits would forbid any attempt to excavate the site to search for the hard drive.

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Gensler Says Crypto Oversight Still Essential | PYMNTS.com

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Gensler Says Crypto Oversight Still Essential | PYMNTS.com

Gary Gensler will step down as chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Jan. 20 with the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

But that didn’t stop Gensler from expressing concerns that more needs to be done to regulate the cryptocurrency market, particularly altcoins and intermediaries.

In an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday (Jan. 8), he emphasized that everyday investors still lack adequate disclosures from digital asset firms and said the cryptocurrency landscape is “rife with bad actors,” highlighting the need for regulatory oversight to protect investors from fraud and misinformation.

Gensler’s tenure has been characterized by aggressive enforcement actions against numerous cryptocurrency entities, including high-profile cases involving Coinbase Global and Ripple Labs. Since taking office in 2021, he has overseen about 100 enforcement actions related to cryptocurrencies.

While Gensler’s SEC chair predecessor, Jay Clayton, focused his 80 enforcement actions between 2017 and 2020 on token issuers, Gensler’s approach often targeted market intermediaries for failing to comply with securities laws regarding registration and disclosure.

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Meanwhile, Trump has nominated Paul Atkins, a former SEC commissioner known for his pro-crypto stance, to succeed Gensler. This transition is expected to lead to a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets, potentially reducing enforcement actions against the industry. It’s a sharp contrast with Gensler’s more stringent regulatory approach.

In his remarks, Gensler expressed concern that many of the crypto projects currently in existence are unlikely to survive, comparing them to venture capital investments prone to high failure rates.

Despite criticism from the cryptocurrency community that classifying most crypto assets as securities has stifled innovation, Gensler defended his record in the interview. He asserted that the SEC’s actions were necessary to maintain market integrity and investor protection.

“I’ve never seen a field that’s so much wrapped up in sentiment and not so much about fundamentals,” he remarked, underscoring his belief that regulatory clarity is essential for the cryptocurrency industry’s future.

For more on what’s to come, read up on PYMNTS’ “Three Most Important US Crypto Policies to Watch This Year.”

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Sen. Bernie Moreno supports loosening regulations on some cryptocurrency assets

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Sen. Bernie Moreno supports loosening regulations on some cryptocurrency assets

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Bernie Moreno’s victory in the Ohio Senate race was a big win for the cryptocurrency industry, which spent more than $40 million supporting his candidacy. Now in office, Moreno said he would support legislation the industry is seeking that would govern how it is regulated.


What You Need To Know

  • Sen. Bernie Moreno said he would support new legislation to govern how the cryptocurrency industry is regulated
  • The crypto industry spent tens of millions of dollars to support Moreno in the Ohio Senate race
  • Moreno’s support of laws sought by crypto interests is a stark contrast from his Democrat predecessor, former Sen. Sherrod Brown

Moreno has long been involved with the crypto industry. He has a background in blockchain, the same technology used to for cryptocurrency. He previously founded Champ Titles, a digital car titling company that was among the first to use blockchain for digital titles.

The cryptocurrency industry also helped fuel his Senate win. Super PAC Defend American Jobs spent $40.1 million on the race, more than any other outside group. The super PAC is affiliated with Fairshake, another super PAC that is funded by Coinbase, Ripple and other crypto companies.

Moreno’s support of laws sought by crypto interests is a stark contrast from his Democrat predecessor, former Sen. Sherrod Brown.

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As Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Brown blocked advancing a bill to loosen the regulation of some crypto assets, known as the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, or FIT 21. The bill would reclassify many kinds of crypto as commodities rather than securities. Rules for commodities, examples of which include oil, wheat or electricity, are generally looser than those for financial securities like stocks or bonds. The bill passed the House last Congress, but remained stalled in the Senate Banking Committee.

Moreno now sits on the Banking Committee, as well as the Senate Committees for Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs; Commerce, Science and Transportation; Budget; and Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.

“I got the committee assignments I wanted,” Moreno said. “Senator Thune was kind enough to get me on Banking.”

Moreno disagreed with the stance Brown had taken against legislation like FIT 21, countering that the rapidly growing cryptocurrency industry needs better clarification on regulations.

“Crypto is not looking to be deregulated. Crypto is looking to be treated fairly, to have transparent, consistent regulations that treat everybody equally and fairly. That’s what we want,” he said. “Look, at the end of they day, I understand how the technology works and I understand the industry. My opponent had no idea.”

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With a new Congress, the House would have to re-introduce and pass another cryptocurrency regulation bill. FIT 21 previously received bipartisan support, with nearly all Republicans and about a third of Democrats voting for it.

Similar legislation would likely move more quickly this Congress, in which Republicans control the House, Senate and White House.

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