Key Takeaways:

• Brent crude climbed above $115 per barrel on April 29 as Trump ordered preparations for an extended Iranian naval blockade.
• The IEA called the Strait of Hormuz shutdown the largest supply shock on record, with 20% of global oil flows halted.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady today, with Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation risks in focus.

Iran Blockade Fears Push Brent Crude Higher, Largest Increase Since June 2022

Brent, the international benchmark, climbed above $115 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest level since June 2022, marking an eighth straight session of gains as concerns over global supply intensified. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose above $102 per barrel as well, gaining for the third straight session, supported by mounting uncertainty around global supply as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed.

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Since late February, Iran has restricted tanker traffic through the chokepoint to near zero in response to U.S. military pressure. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to tighten the supply outlook.

Peace negotiations collapsed in Pakistan in mid-April without agreement, and a ceasefire that had been in place since early April remains fragile. President Trump said Iran has called for the U.S. to lift its naval blockade while negotiations continue. Trump, writing on Truth Social, told Iran to “get smart soon” and sign a deal, framing the blockade as a lower-risk alternative to resumed airstrikes.

Iran’s economy is reportedly under severe strain. The country is reporting 53.7% inflation, a record-low rial, and millions of job losses linked to the conflict. The Iranian rial crashed to a record low of approximately 1.8 million (or 1.81 million) per U.S. dollar. Tehran has vowed to keep disrupting Hormuz traffic, claiming it can manage through alternative routes.

Washington is stepping up pressure with potential sanctions targeting Chinese refiners and countries paying transit fees through Hormuz. The UAE announced it will exit OPEC on May 1 to gain production flexibility, though analysts say that move does little to ease the immediate supply crunch while Hormuz remains closed.

Prices have swung sharply since the conflict began. Brent neared $120 per barrel at earlier peaks in 2026 before pulling back on ceasefire hopes. The World Bank has forecast energy prices could rise 24% overall this year under prolonged disruptions, the steepest projected increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The average price for a gallon of regular gas has hit $4.229, the highest since Aug. 2, 2022. Fuel costs are heavily influenced by oil prices, which account for more than half of the price at the pump. With refiners now transitioning to pricier summer-blend gasoline, further pressure at the pump is expected heading into peak driving season.

U.S. Equities and Bonds Remain Rattled

U.S. equity markets edged lower on April 29 as the oil rally compounded existing uncertainty. The S&P 500 edged down 0.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.27%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.41%. Hyperscalers Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon, totaling around $11 trillion in market cap, were between 1% and 2% lower ahead of their earnings reports after the bell, set to update their artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure.

Visa was over 5% higher after posting strong results for the last quarter, while Booking dropped 4% on its earnings. Defensive stocks held ground despite fresh oil gains. European markets also softened, with the FTSE 100 off 0.73% and the pan-European Stoxx 600 down 0.4%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ticked up to 4.39%, reflecting inflation worries tied to rising energy costs. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at its meeting today. Chair Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate that policymakers remain data-dependent, with inflation risks elevated while growth remains stable. This is expected to be Powell’s final meeting before his term concludes in May.

The confluence of Big Tech earnings, a Fed decision, and an oil shock driven by geopolitics has left traders with little margin for error. Markets remain fluid. Any breakthrough in U.S.-Iran talks or an agreement to reopen the strait could quickly reverse the oil rally, as prior ceasefire announcements have shown. Until then, traders are watching energy supply data, Fed signals, and geopolitical dispatches closely.

The federal government announced it’s planning to ban crypto ATMs in order to protect Canadians from scammers using the machines to defraud victims.

The Liberals’ spring economic update on Tuesday referred to crypto ATMs as a “primary method for scammers to defraud victims and for criminals to place their cash proceeds of crime.”

Crypto ATMs might look a lot like a traditional banking machine, but instead of dispensing cash from your bank account, the majority of these machines allow customers to deposit cash and then convert it into cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin. Then, they can send it to a virtual wallet anywhere in the world.  

Last year, CBC News spent months looking into this industry, speaking with law enforcement, financial regulators, cryptocurrency experts, former crypto ATM company employees, the operators themselves and fraud victims for a three-part series Feeding Fraud: The Crypto ATM Problem. 

The investigation revealed that these machines, which currently operate legally in Canada, have become the main vehicle fraudsters use to get money from scam victims across the country. Canada’s financial intelligence agency, FINTRAC, came to that conclusion in a February 2023 analysis of suspicious transaction reports submitted to the agency. 

Crypto ATMs are touted as a low-barrier, convenient way to buy or sell crypto, but that’s also what makes them appealing to fraudsters, CBC’s investigation found. 

Funds are sent quickly, a bank account isn’t required, most transactions only require a phone number if depositing under $1,000 and, unlike a bank, there’s no human interaction or teller trained to recognize a fraud unfolding. 

Canada has the most crypto ATMs per capita in the world, but currently has no industry-specific regulations. There are nearly 4,000 crypto ATMs across the country and more than 39,000 around the world.

WATCH | CBC investigation uncovers why crypto ATMs are so popular for fraudsters:

How fraudsters are using crypto ATMs to get your money

Crypto ATMs are the main way fraudsters are getting money from Canadians, according to a federal report. The CBC’s Angelina King and Farrah Merali dive into the issue in the three-part series Feeding Fraud: The Crypto ATM Problem.

Last fall, CBC News requested interviews with both Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and FINTRAC to ask about what (if any) action they were taking to address crypto ATMs becoming the main vehicle fraudsters use to get money from Canadian scam victims. 

Neither request was granted. But when asked on Parliament Hill about the lack of specific regulations in the wake of the FINTRAC report, Champagne did not address the agency’s finding, instead telling CBC the government is looking at all options to prevent financial crimes.

“This is something we’re looking at very carefully and very seriously,” said Champagne last fall.

Tuesday’s economic update does not include many details on the proposed ban of crypto ATMs. 

Currently, the machines are regulated like any other money services business (MSB) in Canada, a designation that includes foreign exchange dealers, regular ATMs and money-transfer services, like Western Union. The government’s update does say the measure will ensure Canadians can still buy virtual currencies from “brick-and-mortar MSBs, while better protecting MSBs from illicit activity.” 

Other jurisdictions have previously taken action to fight fraud using crypto ATMs.

The U.K. effectively banned the machines by creating a licensing infrastructure in 2021 that hasn’t issued any licences to operators. New Zealand is proposing a ban on the machines and Australia introduced daily transaction limits last summer following a major investigation from its financial intelligence agency and police services.

South of the border, half of U.S. states have proposed or implemented laws to impose measures like daily transaction limits per customer, caps on transaction fees and requirements that operators issue refunds to scam victims.

Key Takeaways:

• Galaxy Digital posted a $216M Q1 loss as the crypto market fell approximately 20% by March 31.
• Galaxy Digital assets fell 12% to approximately $10B, showing crypto sector volatility impact.
• Galaxy Digital bets on Helios, adding 830MW; Coreweave deal to drive Q2 revenue.

Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Holds $2.6B Cash as $216M Loss Tests Market Strategy

Galaxy Digital Holdings posted a sharp quarterly loss of $216 million as falling digital asset prices weighed on its investment portfolio, underscoring the sector’s continued sensitivity to market swings even as the firm expands into infrastructure.

The company reported the net loss of $216 million for the three months ended March 31, compared with a $482 million loss in the prior quarter. The improvement was largely relative, as a roughly 20% drop in total crypto market capitalization during the period eroded the value of Galaxy’s holdings. Adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $188 million, while adjusted gross loss totaled $88 million.

Total assets fell 12% quarter-on-quarter to just under $10 billion, and equity declined to $2.8 billion. Still, Galaxy maintained a strong liquidity position, holding $2.6 billion in cash and stablecoins.

The firm’s core digital assets business showed resilience. Adjusted gross profit in the segment reached $49 million, only slightly below the previous quarter, supported by steady fee income and transaction revenue. Trading volumes held flat even as broader market activity declined, while the average loan book shrank 20% to $1.4 billion amid client deleveraging.

Pressure was most evident in Galaxy’s Treasury and corporate unit, which recorded a $140 million adjusted gross loss driven by unrealized losses on digital assets and investments.

At the same time, Galaxy is pressing ahead with a strategic pivot toward data infrastructure. In April, shortly after quarter-end, the company delivered its first data hall at the Helios campus to Coreweave, marking the start of revenue generation for the project.

The Helios site has also secured regulatory approval for an additional 830 megawatts of power capacity, bringing total approved capacity to more than 1.6 gigawatts. The expansion reflects strong demand for high-performance computing infrastructure, particularly tied to artificial intelligence (AI) workloads.

Asset management remained a mixed picture. Assets under management stood at roughly $5 billion, down from the previous quarter due to market depreciation, though the business attracted $69 million in net inflows. Galaxy also disclosed new partnerships, including a role supporting staking infrastructure for a Blackrock Ethereum exchange-traded product.

During the quarter, Galaxy repurchased $65 million worth of shares and completed its delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange, consolidating trading on Nasdaq.

The results highlight a company navigating volatile crypto markets while betting on more stable, long-term revenue streams. Whether that shift can offset continued price-driven earnings swings remains an open question.